C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

2/1 Aerial, 9/2 The Giant Bolster, 13/2 Poquelin
8/1 Tamarinbleu, 9/1 Araldur, 9/1 Chance Du Roy
9/1 Woolcombe Folly, 14/1 Hell4s Bay
16/1 Tartak, 25/1 Billie Magern.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year.
* Look at the 12 Cheltenham races
* Horses aged 6 and 7 have a 0-37 record
* That seems quite a revealing statistic in these races
* I’d oppose horses aged 6 or 7 with that record
* Especially as the first two favourites fail this.
* AERIAL – I am opposing him as a 6yo
* THE GIANT BOLSTER – Avoid him as a 7yo
* BILLIE MAGERN – doesnt offer me enough
* HELL4S BAY – Not in good enough form
* TARTAK – Too much of a fitness doubt for me
* WOOLCOMBE FOLLY – Vulnerable from 2m
* TAMARINBLEU – Asking lots for a 12yo

Shortlist

* POQUELIN – The class horse but a lot to do
* CHANCE DU ROY – Big chance
* ARALDUR – No problems with his profile

S e l e c t i o n

CHANCE DU ROY  10/1 Each Way Ladbrokes bet365

Last time out CHANCE DU ROY was beaten 16 lengths
by Quincy Des Pictons who was rated 119. There was no
shame in that. It was heavy ground and Welsh National
day and CHANCE DU ROY had topweight and gave him
33lbs weight. Thats a massive ammount and when you
consider than Quincy Des Pictons is now rated 137 then
I think he had an impossible task that day. Its interesting
the 3rd horse (Consigliere) came out and won 20 lengths
next time out. CHANCE DU ROY is the one getting the
weight today and I like his chance.

Posted under horse racing tips

Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Posted under horse racing tips

Every meeting gets the go ahead today. Some very

interesting and significant Jumping action. Much of it is more Positioning for

Cheltenham. Plenty of races that don’t make any appeal to me as they throw up

short priced favourites or impossible to asses handicaps.

The racing selection for the blog this weekend however is

at Lingfield.

Lingfield 4.05

TITAN TRIUMPH Each Way 100/30 at Corals

There seems to be a school of though that TITAN

TRIUMPH is unproven in this class and has a lot to do. You can definitely make that argument but horses trying exactly what he attempts today have a strong record. I felt he was highly impressive last time and that he meets a mixed bag of unfit and badly treated horses. He will need luck in running as they all do
here but I thought he had a strong chance and is good enough to win.

LINGFIELD 4.00

William Hill JANUARY SALE – BET NOW! HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m

5/2 Titan Triumph, 3/1 Atlantic Story, 5/1 Red Somerset, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts,

8/1 Samarinda, 10/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Kayak, 20/1 Fajr, 20/1 Swiss Act.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-108

* Its a class handicap and there’s been 51 similar races

* ACE OF HEARTS has to go aged 10 absent 107 days

* Thats asking too much as he has a career high mark

* FAYR won this race last year but had a recent run

* He is now a 7 year old absent 56 days

* I don’t want an older horse with a long absence like him

* KAYAK is out as a 7yo absent 42 days

* I don’t want SWISS ACT as he has ran once since June

* CAPRICORN RUN is not too bad statistically

* Not many horses come via conditions races though

* RED SOMERSET comes from that same race

* He is also reasonably fine statistically

* RED SOMERSET has never won in this class though

* He has never won from this handicap mark either

* He has never won off higher than 86 or above 0-90 class

* Today he is off 89 and facing a 0-108

* SAMARINDA is fine statistically but has a tough mark

* He has never won from his current mark

* ATLANTIC STORY has some issues to overcome

* None of the 51 winners came from Listed class as he does

* He is also a 7 year old with a 31 day absence

* He also has a career high mark to overcome

* TITAN TRIUMPH looks the progressive improver

* He has just won his last 4 races

* He has just won 0-74 – 0-75 – 0-80 and a 0-84 handicap

* This is clearly a step up in Class

* To counter that he is a fast improving well handicapped horse

* I looked at horses in 51 races with similar profiles

* Horses that won their last 2 races in Class 3 or lower

* Horses that came into these races like that scored well

* When they came from 8f or longer handicaps they were 6-14

* The Males that tried it starting under 12/1 were 6-12

* This suggests in form improvers can bridge the class gap

* TITAN TRIUMPH is my choice to improve past these

* With many potentially unfit and badly handicapped

* TITAN TRIUMPH may be able to win in this class

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips