Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.

KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT – BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER – TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Posted under horse racing tips

Visually a superb day’s racing. There seems to be a lot of
really big priced horses in today’s message for full members
including a full Account Bet at 10/1 ish.

Here on the free blog however we have just the one race for you.

Not as strong in my opinon as the full member Account Bet
but an interesting runner at a good price.

NB If you abit more serious about your racing I suggest you join as a full member http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

You will get the full message not just one race snippets and all through the week not just on a Saturday. All historic messages are availalbe for you to view.  Also take a nose around the private forums to see what other racing brains are coming up with or have spotted. There is a no quibble refund guarantee to protect you if youdecide its not your personal cup of tea.

Anyhow  on to today..

WARWICK 2.50

Bet Totepool To Support Your Sport
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-120) 3m1f

11/4 Sonny Mullen, 4/1 Winterwood, 5/1 Kristoffersen,
6/1 Oscar Prairie, 10/1 Merigo, 14/1 Mealagh Valley
16/1 Quelqu´un Comme Toi, 16/1 Radmores Revenge
16/1 Very Cool, 20/1 Inghwung, 25/1 Honour High.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
* Febuary has seen 89 similar handicaps
* There’s been 288 similar races between January-March
* SONNY MULLEN comes from 17f and has 4 runs
* I looked at 288 similar races over a 3 month period
* 9 of  the 288 winners came from 17f or shorter
* None had under 5 career starts like SONNY MULLEN
* Horses from any Novice race over 16f-17f were 0-38
* SONNY MULLEN also fails that
* Horses from 17f or less with over 11st were just 1-61
* SONNY MULLEN fails that as well
* Throw in an absence and he looks vulnerable to me
* Horses with 1 run this season concern me
* Especially when having 9 or more runs
* Especially when having no backclass
* RADMORES REVENGE doesnt look fit and fails that
* INGHWUNG is a mare with 1 run that year
* HONOUR HIGH also looks weak with one run
* MERIGO is thrown in on his hurdles form
* Rated 130 over fences he is running here off 110
* That makes him very interesting
* However there are some concerns
* Hard to know if he can translate his form to hurdles
* Hard to know if he is anywhere near fit
* It surely looks a prep race for a long distance chase
* MERIGO is 9 with 1 race that season
* He has no form in Listed or Graded races either
* Look at all 9 year olds with 1 race that season
* Look at the ones with no form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-67
* MERIGO has an unfit profile statistically
* MEALAGH VALLEY has a poor profile absent 688 days
* I dont see him overcoming that with just 4 runs
* OSCAR PRAIRIE is 5 and from a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 288 similar races for horses doing that
* When coming from 2m 6f or shorter they were 0-22
* No 5yo like OSCAR PRAIRIE won any of these races
* Not coming from a Novice Hurdle short of 3 miles
* KRISTOFFERSEN doesnt make much appeal
* He is an exposed 10 year old with no Graded Class
* Only 5 of the 288 winners could say that
* None were absent over a month like him (0-64)
* None had under 4 runs that season like him
* He has a weak profile and the ground looks wrong
* All his wins have come on better ground than this

SHORTLIST

WINTERWOOD  7/2
VERY COOL  8/1
QUELQU´UN COMME TOI  16/1

WINTERWOOD is hard to judge. Lightly raced horse.
Most runs in Ireland. I dont think he has an impressive
profile. I looked at all horses like him with 7-12 runs and
an absence of 7 weeks or more.  You only find a few of
them won and the vast majority had less weight than he
does. I have shortlisted him but I’m not sold on his chance.

* VERY COOL could also go well off topweight
* He only has a 0-120 class race to win
* He has placed 2nd in a 0-140 handicap before
* He isnt exposed which has to help
* If he recaptures his form after a break he could win
* He stays and acts on the ground
* Statistically he has work to do
* I would want more runs this year or a recent run

SELECTION

QUELQU´UN COMME TOI

This horse is a mystery. There is limited evidence to know
how good he is or what type of horse he is. I think he is a
horse that will either win or come nowhere. I love his profile though.
His jockey (Aidan Coleman) was intereviewed the other day about his
beat chance of a winner today. He said it was his outsider in the 3.55pm at 33/1 (Spit).
If he is being honest and knows a lot about both horses than we are in a bit of bother.
Then again he could have no knowledge that the horse is ok and it doesnt pay to listen to them anyway.

* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI has the following profile
* Horses with 5-6 career runs
* Horses aged 6
* Handicap Hurdle last time out
* No form in Graded races
* Horses with that profile were 10-40
* Those running in Febuary had a 6-9 record
* Those like him beaten 16 + lengths last time were 4-9
* Those like him beaten 32 + lengths were 2-3
* Would have been happier if he had won a race before
* That said he has an interesting profile
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI could well be a Player

14/1 at BoyleSports betfred Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Squareuare Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 5/4 at Coral Sky sportingbet

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips