For those of you who prefer to do your own thing selection wise

here are some researched stats for Cheltenham Day 4 races.

 

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* English Horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I would avoid horses with 1 career start
* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-31 record.
* 2 of the last winners had just 2 previous races
* Thats a change as 17 of the previous 18 had more
* Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage.
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Flat Bred
* Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat
* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49
* The last 19 winners all ran after January 17th that year
* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 5 times
* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000
* All 3 won last time within the past month
* Horses that won their last race won 12 of the last 13
* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time
* Those that were not had a 0-158 record
* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85
* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle
* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled
* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-49
* All 36 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost
* All 85 maidens lost
* 14 of the last 16 winners had won twice that season
* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings
* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-133

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent O?Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Seasonal debutants have not won this race
* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-43
* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season
* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and none won
* All 16 winners had at least that and most had 4 +
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3-4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season
* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs
* 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* The last 17 winners were absence this many days
* 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much
* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record
* 5 and 6 year olds won 39 of the last 49 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have won 4 of the last 6 renewals
* No horse aged 10 or older have won
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs
* 16 of the last 18 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before
* Both high and low weighted winners have won
* I’d oppose the very high weighted horses
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18

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CHELTENHAM 2.40

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are just 6 renewals of this race
* The 5 winners were aged 7-6-7-6-7-5
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-13
* The 6 winners were 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts
* The 6 winners had 15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs
* They had the following number of hurdle starts
* 13 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 4
* I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3
* Dont be put off from horses with absences
* The 6 winners had been absent this many days
* 33 47 61 48 97 27
* All 6 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time
* 2 of the 6 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the distance before
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the track before
* The 6 winners had 9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* 14 of the last 15 winners had 6-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 14 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-82 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 17 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-85 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 34 that ran in the last 17 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 11 of the last 13 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Allmost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Christies Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
(CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-2 since 1992
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-130 both winners a shock
* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses.
* You can’t rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004
* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days
* Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.
* Anything that wins very recently is significant
* Seasonal debutants won several renewals
* I would either want a long absence or very short one
* Horses with Headgear won 1 race but score badly
* We haven’t yet had a female winner of this race (0-14)
* The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions
* W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W
* The majority have won their latest starts
* Or they would have probably won when falling
* 19 of the last 23 winners won on their previous start
* Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37
* 19 of the last 21 were brought up via Hunters or Points
* All 23 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost
* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.
* None of the 38 won this race
* No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

* No strong Statistics with just 2 past renewals
* Both winners were 6 year olds
* Both had 11st 2lbs and more
* Both last ran in Febuary
* Both had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences
* Both had ran over fences at least once before
* Both had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before
* Neither winner came up in distance
* Both had placed at Cheltenham before
* Both winners had 4 runs that season
* Neither had 3 or more career wins before

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CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase runs
* 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Recent winners had the follwing Hurdle runs
* 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs
* 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40
* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997
* The last 11 winners had these Handicap Chase runs
* 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5
* 5 of the last 11 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase
* Another one had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase.
* The last 11 winners had these Novice Chase runs
* 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs
* The last 12 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998
* Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-55
* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races
* The last 12 winners were aged 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991
* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)
* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)
* They all had form in Graded races
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had just 1 run that season
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* Last years winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual
* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-64
* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks
* All 35 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost
* 16 of the last 17 winners had ran in Graded Class before
* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France
* Predictably all 37 apprentice riders lost in this race
* Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-56 record
* Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out
* 35 of the last 40 winners placed in their previous chase
* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps
* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase
* 5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2

Posted under Major Horse Races

NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365 -  betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Not our main full member bet of the day but we have a piece from our extra race analysis section for you.

YORK 2.45

Coral Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

7/4 Descaro, 5/1 Head Hunted, 6/1 Tillietudlem, 8/1 Nemo Spirit 10/1 Act Of Kalanisi, 10/1 Dubara Reef, 10/1 Dulcie
12/1 Bollin Judith, 14/1 Sphinx, 25/1 Folk Tune.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-82 rated horses
* October has had 41 handicaps like this over 17f-18f
* There were 85 similar races between September – November
* Horses from 13f or shorter had a 2-72 record
* None of these were exposed (0-22)
* None from 12f races were aged 5 or more (0-35)
* No horse doing had 8st 12lbs or more
* FOLK TUNE comes from 12f and fails all those angles
* NEMO SPIRIT also comes from 13f
* No horse managed that when aged 5 or more like him
* No horse managed that with his weight as well
* Aged 5 with only runs this season would worry me
* I think that and his weight and jump in trip hurt him
* I dont see him overcoming all those factors
* There was only 1 winner aged 9 or more
* SPHINX is surely too old as a 12 year old
* Especially with a 188 day absence as well
* DULCIE is a filly with 2 runs this season
* No filly won without at least 5 runs that season
* DULCIE looks underraced for a filly
* ACT OF KALANISI is a 4yo Male
* 4 year old males with 13 or more career starts are just 1-43
* Those running like him within a month were 0-35
* Those like him coming from 16f or shorter were 0-33
* ACT OF KALANISI doesnt come out well
* Its the Fillies aged 4 that do well in these races
* Male 4 year olds have a much weaker record
* I looked at 85 races between September and November
* I looked at Male 4 year olds coming from 14f or less
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-53
* ACT OF KALANISI has a weak profile in my view
* TILLIETUDLEM  is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had more backclass than he does
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* TILLIETUDLEM was beaten easily by DESCARO last time
* Even on better weight terms he will do well to reverse that form
* This is a harder race and he could well lack the class
* There is no encouragement from his profile
* DUBARA REEF is 3 and comes from a 3yo handicap
* Plenty of 3 year olds won like that with 7-12 starts
* None had 13 or more runs and DUBARA REEF has 14 runs
* DUBARA REEF is more exposed than ideal for a 3yo
* 3 year olds like him from 3yo handicaps over 14f won 2 races
* Those with 9 or more starts doing that were 0-9
* He really needs a few less runs to be ideal

POSSIBLES

* DESCARO is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had far more runs this year than he does
* They all had a lot more backclass as well
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* That said he stays and won very easily last time
* Since running over longer trips he has looked progressive
* He probably has a far better chance than the stats imply
* This is a harder race though and he will be tested

SHORTLIST

* BOLLIN JUDITH is a 4yo filly with 19 career starts
* Fillies aged 4 with 13 or more starts were 3-18
* Those with 9st or lower running with 7 weeks are 3-13
* BOLLIN JUDITH has a good profile
* All her wins are on faster ground at 14f
* She stays 15f on soft ground seems to be fine
* She is from a stamina laden family but will she stay
* Interesting all 3 renewals of this race went to a Filly
* There are some concerns about trip and ground
* She has been underestimated for me in the betting
* I most fear Head Hunted in this race
* HEAD HUNTED is 3 and comes from a 2m handicap
* 3 year olds with that profile and 7-12 runs are 5-33
* Statistically he has a reasonable profile
* HEAD HUNTED has to show he stays

SPLIT STAKE BET

BOLLIN JUDITH 12/1 at bet365 – BoyleSports – Coral – s james
HEAD HUNTED 6/1 at bet365 – betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday October 2nd

1 Daily Reccomendation

Newmarket 3.00

RAINFALL 7/1

Each Way

8/1 bet365 – Tote
15/2 Skybet – VC
7/1 betfred -Blue Square – BoyleSports -Corals -PaddyPower

NEWMARKET 3.00

Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes
(Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) 1m

4/1 Music Show, 4/1 Sahpresa, 11/2 Seta, 11/2 Strawberrydaiquiri 6/1 Spacious,
7/1 Rainfall, 14/1 Aviate, 33/1 Alsace Lorraine 33/1 Hen Night, 33/1 Sent From Heaven, 40/1 Lahaleeb.

The Sun Chariot Stakes has 10 past renewals as a Group 2
or Group 1 race. In these races horses beaten more than 4
lengths last time out were 0-30 in this race.
All winners of this race were either 3 or 4 year olds.
SAHPRESA has that against her. If you look at horses with only 1-2-3 runs this season you found 2 winners.
None were aged 4 or more and None had 9 or more career starts and SAHPRESA fails both those angles.
Horses like SPACIOUS with 13 or more starts struggled.
Only 1 past winner had that many runs and that was only a 3 year old.
STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI has been absent a while and I can’t match her.
AVIATE drops from  a 10f race and needed to have won last time to have been like any past winner.
I would shortlist 3 horses in this. It’s hard to ignore MUSIC SHOW or SETA and both look like big runners.
That said 3 year olds like MUSIC SHOW and SETA coming from an 8f race only had a 1-25 record
and  that winner was less exposed than MUSIC SHOW and was lighter raced than both.
I prefer RAINFALL from these 3.

* Horses aged 3
* Coming from a 7f race
* Form in Group 1 of Group 2 races
* 4 or more runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile in this race
* All 3 horses won in 2000 2006 and 2007
* RAINFALL has that profile
* Admittedly none 7 runs that season they all had 4-5-6 runs
* None tried though with 7 runs though and I’m overlooking that
* RAINFALL each way is my bet

I think she has been underestimate in a nicely frame race
and horses with very similar profiles were W W W in the
race so I see her as a very interesting runner.
She has one or two lengths to find with a couple of these but
that’s not impossible especially on this ground and I think
she has a serious chance of beating these from the best age group.

Posted under horse racing tips

The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES – KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD -  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY – KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 CanBet VC bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  bet365 Ladbrokes Skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Posted under Major Horse Races