The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES - KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD -  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY - KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 CanBet VC bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  bet365 Ladbrokes Skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Posted under Major Horse Races

SOUTHWELL 12.55

Dine In The Pantry Restaurant Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-55) 7f

7/2 Louisiade, 6/1 Iron Max, 6/1 Sairaam
7/1 Positivity, 7/1 Royal Keva, 9/1 Ride A White Swan
9/1 Top Flight Splash, 11/1 Hard Ball, 11/1 Special Cuvee
14/1 Bertbrand, 16/1 Toballa.

This is Division 2 of the 7f handicap run at 2.20pm
so the statistics are the same and we have had 81 of
these races at this time of year. I was close to giving
up on this race as profile after profile dissapointed me
and I was almost resigned to hating every runner until
I found a horse in HARD BALL that I really liked.

Before HARD BALL’s claims I will mention a few of
the negatives. We know 3yo fillys from 6f races are
0-49 so TOP FLIGHT SPLASH didnt appeal. I could
not find winners like RIDE A WHITE SWAN as an
older horse from a maiden. IRON MAX looked too
inexperienced. No filly like POSITIVITY came from
a maiden. SAIRAAM came out badly as a 3yo filly
with no backclass and looked exposed. LOUISIADE
is 8 and steps down in trip and only 1 winner did it
and that was a different type and He’s unimpressive.
TOBALLA - BERTBRAND all looked weak. I can
see ROYAL KEVA running well but 3 year olds in
these races from 8f races hardly excelled and he is
a maiden after 15 runs. SPECIAL CURVEE could
go well but he has an absence to overcome. So with
a lack of credible profiles I stay with HARD BALL.

HARD BALL

* Horses aged 3 from 3yo handicaps
* 5-12 Career Starts
* Absence of over a Month
* Coming from 7f or more
* Starting under 25/1
* There were 4 horses that had that profile
* They finished W W W  W
* Three of the 4 were maidens just as he is

I have to risk HARD BALL. He may be useless
for all I know but this is a useless race dont forget.
Being beaten just 7 lengths in a 0-70 last time is
more than good enough to take this race. That
was over a mile and there is every chance this
7f distance suits him better.I dont know much
about him but he is entered all over the place
this week which must be a good sign and he is
a horse with a strong profile so why not at a double digit price

Hardball 12/1 Ladbrokes / Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

KEMPTON 4.35

Don Wetherell Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (2yo) 6f

This is a 2yo Claiming race. We have 56 of these
races at this time of year. I would look for an each
way bet against the market leaders. Both these are
Fillies coming from 5f races. In 56 races fillies from
5f races were 4-104. None of these had a very recent
run something WANCHAI WHISPER has to overcome
and no filly came from a 5f selling race something that
CHOCOLATE COOKIE has to overcome. There may
be a better alternative. WANNABEE looks outclassed.
BOBBY´S DOLL is too inexperienced. I would not be
with ISHE A LORD whose also far too inexperienced
and horses like him from sellers were 0-38 without at
least 4 career starts. ANNIA has a weak profile and
didnt do enough last time. If you look at horses who
come from 8f races you find that males doing this had
a 0-27 record and those with under 9 previous races
were 0-38 something ARKEN LAD has to overcome.

SELECTION

LITTLE PERISHER has the strongest profile
with backclass a recent run and plenty of runs.
There may be temprement issues but name me
a 2yo claimer that doesnt have that and I felt
he ran better than it looked in a much better
race at Windsor last time. He should win this.

9/2 at PaddyPower

Posted under horse racing tips

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 Skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Posted under horse racing tips

Chester 2.25

BERTOLIVER 5/1 William Hill

For best live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-08-22/chester/14-25/betting/

Win Bet

Just one selection on BERTOLIVER at Chester. Feels like a
subdued Saturday with less Racing and some smaller fields and in an attempt to find my best bet at decent odds there were not many options and only one horse that came close to being a bet and that’s BERTOLIVER. There are issue at Chester over 5 furlongs like the start and how fast they go and there is also a false rail there today so plenty of factors in this race that we can not be sure about but I think I’ve made a good enough case for BERTOLIVER to be worth a bet around 5/1 and the race has plenty of negatives as well which should increase his chance.

CHESTER 2.25

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) 5f16y

7/2 Glamorous Spirit, 9/2 Bertoliver, 6/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 7/1 Invincible Lad, 7/1 Tyfos, 10/1 Le Toreador, 12/1 Misaro, 14/1 Supermassive Muse, 16/1 Rasaman, 20/1 Total Impact, 33/1 Methaaly, 33/1 Sands Crooner, 33/1 Stolt.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Chester has had 34 of these races in August and September and there has been 497 similar handicaps elsewhere. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has to go as a 3yo filly from a 3yo handicap. In 497 races there were just three Fillies who managed to win with that profile. Of these 3 fillies none had a weight she has or were beaten as far as she was last time and none were as exposed as She is. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has 15 runs. Look at 3yo fillies with 13 or more runs from 3yo handicaps and since 1993 you see a 0-57 record. The problem in this race is that every runner has a recent race and is well raced and the strength in depth is enormous. RASAMAN does not appeal as horses from 6f claimers were miserable. I suppose that as Chester has had 34 handicaps in the last 3 seasons at 5 furlongs and that stalls 11 or more were 0-56 we should throw out the high drawn horses so METHAALY is rejected as is SANDS CROONER - STOLT and TOTAL IMPACT as well. SUPERMASSIVE MUSE won this last year and was well beaten last year before this race just as he is this year. The difference for me now is he is exposed now and doesnt have the same preparation and I ran his profile through 497 races and no horse like him won. Exposed 4 year olds beaten 10 lengths or more last time like him were poor and those without at least nine runs that season were 0-76 so he isnt for me. I dont fancy TYRANNOSAURUS REX. When he won here in June it was a Career best. He has to better than today in a better class race from a higher handicap mark and I dont see him doing that from a stable that are really struggling and when he may have gone off the boil himself. MISARO needs close to a career best and he may pop up but he is getting on now as an 8 year old and his last win came against “seniors” aged 6 or more in a much lower class race and the percentage call is that he will probably find something faster. TYFOS has stall 1. Very complicated sort of profile as a 4 year old down in trip with an intermediate sort of absence.

Statistically he did enough to get on a shortlist but I wasnt impressed enough. I felt he wanted a more recent run and he lacks backclass and that worries me. After all every other horse in this race has ran in a higher grade before than TYFOS has and you can ignore that for lightly raced horses but he has 16 runs now. Thrown in the fact he was outpaced and beaten the only time he ran at Chester over this trip and he doesnt have any other runs at 5f and when you consider the Dam won over hurdles and in a Bumper you wonder where he will get the speed for a race over 5 furlongs. I am not sold on his chance

SHORTLIST

BERTOLIVER -LE TOREADOR  -INVINCIBLE LAD

LE TOREADOR has an excellent chance and excellent profile
and ran much better than it looked last time but his problem is probably Stall 8 and how much luck he gets from that. Take the last 17 handicaps here over 5f. In these 17 races 16 of the 17 to win were drawn lower than Stall 8. LE TOREADOR will have to have some luck to win. INVINCIBLE LAD ran really well last  time at Goodwood and if he repeats that he could well win. My only worries here are no form at Chester and a Career high mark. He has a habit of starting slowly and thet wont help him here and he is riSky.

SELECTION

BERTOLIVER is well treated and he looks likely to burst out and try and make all. Whether he folds like he did last time at Newbury or not is another matter. It may have been a bit soft for him last time as he wants it fast and he does love it here so everything looks placed for a serious run from the front and he should trade low in running. He looks a win bet. Phillip Robinson is an eye catching booking and this looks his race.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips