Racing Tip For Haydock

Haydock   5.15

A racing tip for Haydock today

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* SHOLAAN is 3 and comes down in trip
* I wanted more runs this year and couldnt match him
* He is not a negative but I see him as unsafe
* SHOLAAN could also bounce with 1 run since June
* Having a run 7 days ago  could also come too quickly
* ELUSIVITY – Not safe statistically from a Group 1 race
* KYLEAKIN LASS – Hard to see this 3yo filly winning again
* Especially as exposed as she is and up in class
* WEST COAST DREAM – Not well in and 1 run since July
* BEAU MISTRAL – Too exposed as a 3yo filly
* FACE THE PROBLEM is 4 and comes from 6f
* He is woefully short of runs this year doing that
* All 4yos doing that had at least 7 runs and he has just 4
* He has been put up 5lbs for getting beaten last time
* He’s not proven on the ground either
* LONG AWAITED – Not sure about his draw in stall 16
* Since 2007 there were 49 races at 5f here with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 14 or more had a 2-57 record
* Both those winners were drawn 16 like him
* However each race had many non runners reducing the field
* Both horses were running effectively from stall 12
* Statistically I have problems with her
* Looked at 4 year olds with Class 2 form without a recent run
* I found a weak 1-47 record and that winner wasnt unexposed
* Reluctant to ignore him as he loves soft and is very fast
* My stats say No and the Draw also undermines his chance
* STEPS – Not convinced – on a career high mark from stall 1
* Profile wise he is just a bit short of what I want
* STEPS isnt too far away though so I respect him

Shortlist

* JEDWARD – Stats say no – didnt do enough last time
* I’d keep her on side though and promote her weak profile

* CHEVETON has a much better all round profile than most
* He won this race in 2010 with 8lbs more weight

Selection

Each Way CHEVETON 13/2
bet365William Hill – VC

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 29, 2012

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Ayr Gold Cup Tip

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at bet365
Same available at Sky and stan james but bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 22, 2012

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Ascot Champions Day Tip

I am no fan of Champions dayat Ascot
as races have been borrowed or stolen from other
tracks, run at different times of the season often
upgraded and that corrupts my angles and makes
it more difficult. I have done what I can however
and have found one for the free blog that looks a
touch over priced.

 

A s c o t   1.50

9/4 Opinion Poll, 5/2 Fame And Glory, 7/2 Times Up
16/1 Motrice, 20/1 Colour Vision, 25/1 Chiberta King
25/1 Darley Sun, 25/1 Nehaam, 33/1 Eternal Heart
40/1 Polly4s Mark.

This 2m Group 3 race is actually the Jockey Club Cup
which is always run at Newmarket. It has been stolen
by Ascot to start their Champions Day card. Whether
any trends hold up because of this I dont know. There
are only mixed angles here anyway. This race has been
dominated by horses coming from the Doncaster Cup
last time out. An incredible 11 of the last 20 winners
of this race came from that race. Any horse that ran
elsewhere last time comes out badly because this trial
race has dominated the race. Today OPINION POLL
and MOTRICE come from this trial. Against these 2
are the fact no 5 year olds like OPINION POLL won
from that race and no filly like MOTRICE did either
so its complicated. FAME AND GLORY comes here
from a 14f race and horses doing that have not done
that well. TIMES UP has to be considered but he has
never won a Group race before the both his main two
rivals have won Group 1-2 races between them. I feel
I should stay with the Doncaster Cup horses despite a
few reservations given above. Because of that and the
race moving to Ascot I see a shortlist of two horses.

OPINION POLL- MOTRICE

I wouldn’t rule MOTRICE out. She started favourite
for this race last year but was only 3yo filly and she
did well to finish second. This year she is fresher and
older and comes from the best trial race. She has not
got much to find with OPINION POLL who was just
1.5 lengths ahead of her last time. That day I had her
as a negative for various reasons. She cant be that far
behind OPINION POLL and given that she is 14/1 I
have to see her as value having started 7/4 in this last
year. I see OPINION POLL as a good saver. Maybe a
good place only bet as well as he should be right there
and easily makes the shortlist. Given the prices I feel
we should try and attack the better priced option here.

Selection – MOTRICE 14/1 +  Each Way

14/1 at 1/4 odds available at bet365 William Hill & PaddyPower

Nb beware a few other miserly bookmakers  only offer 1/5 th odds

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Ayr Gold Cup

S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

Each Way Bet At Doncastor

D o n c a s t e r   3.45

7/2 Cry Fury, 9/2 Sarrsar, 11/2 Eton Forever
6/1 Sooraah, 7/1 Man Of Action, 12/1 Casual Glimpse
12/1 Vainglory, 14/1 Crown Counsel, 16/1 Fareer
16/1 Mia4s Boy, 33/1 Just Bond, 100/1 Majuro.

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-103
* Doncaster have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 39 similar class 2 handicaps elsewhere
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None had 13 + career starts (0-24)
* CROWN COUNSEL fails that and looks wrong
* Horses aged 3 coming from 7f races won 2 races
* None had 9 or more career starts (0-16)
* CASUAL GLIMPSE fails that
* JUST BOND is on a career high mark in a class too high
* JUST BOND doesnt appeal aged 9 absent over a month
* MIA4S BOY is 7 and comes from a 7f race
* Thats not easy to do with just 3 runs this season
* There is a worry he has gone off the boil a little
* MAJURO is outclassed at the moment
* SOORAAH is a 4yo filly
* There was 1 winner like that in 39 races (1-18)
* That winner was exposed and she is not
* That winner had far more runs that year
* SOORAAH is too unsafe absent 43 days
* She isnt a negative but I prefer others
* The weight could be important here
* 17 past renewals and horses with 9st 5lbs + are 0-28
* SARRSAR has 9st 10lbs to carry more than all winners
* I found a few similar 4 year olds to him
* None won last time and none had his weight
* None of the 39 winners won with 9st 9lbs or more
* ETON FOREVER is a 4yo absent 87 days
* I have found 4 year old with a similar profile
* That was the 2009 winner of this race
* He also came from the Royal Hunt Cup
* ETON FOREVER looks interesting on that alone
* The 2009 winner did have 4 runs that season
* ETON FOREVER only has 3 runs
* The 2009 winner also had 15lbs less weight
* ETON FOREVER has 9st 10lbs and thats a problem
* We know None of the 39 winners carried that
* MAN OF ACTION is 4 with 1-2-3 runs this year
* The only winners with that profile had Group form
* He also has a months absence to overcome
* I would like more runs this season

S h o r t l i s t

* CRY FURY is very lightly raced down in trip
* I found a similar winner winning a similar race
* That horse didnt win last time and had less weight
* Hard to read him I wasnt completely convinced
* Besides that is it in his best interests to win this ?
* He has the Cambridgeshire as a target next time out
* He should easily make the race on his rating
* Wouldnt surprise me to see him 2nd or 3rd or 4th

* VAINGLORY has an acceptable profile
* I found 2 winners his age with similar profiles
* He has a tough mark but its not beyond him
* He is beginning to look like a small field horse
* This field will be small enough for him
* VAINGLORY comes from a good trial race
* He comes from the Goddard Stakes at York
* So did the winners in 1997 99 00 01 05 07 and 2010
* He is too big a price at 14/1

Selection

VAINGLORY 14/1 Each Way  stan j    bet365

Posted under horse racing tips