Beverly Horse racing Tip

B e v e r l e y   4.45

7/4 Musnad, 7/2 Cool In The Shade, 7/2 Surely This Time
6/1 American Lover, 14/1 Uddy Mac, 20/1 Boucher Garcon
20/1 Libys Dream, 20/1 Nially Noo, 20/1 Oosisit
33/1 Avon Rising, 66/1 Ingenti, 66/1 La Danse Champetre
66/1 Wing N Prayer, 100/1 Queen´s Princess.

This is a 5f Maiden for all aged horses. Many of these are
outclassed and only half a dozen look options and I would
reduce that to 5 by ignoring UDDY MAC a 4yo filly rated
just 49. Another 4yo filly AMERICAN LOVER leaves me
cold as well. None have won any similar 5f maiden at this
time of year. This race usually goes to a well raced horse.
In all past renewals of this race horses that had 1-2-3 runs
had a miserable 1-92 record. That puts me off an unraced NIALLY NOO.
It also worries me about LIBYS DREAM
as well a filly with 1 race. If you take all 5f maidens like this and l
ook at fillies coming from 6f maidens having 1 career start like LIBYS DREAM
you find a 0-16 record and she is not like any past winners.
Considering this is  a 5f race then MUSNAD dropping from 10f has to give
off serious warning signs. I cant bet MUSNAD from 10f
and feel there are better options. Without a doubt I feel
SURELY THIS TIME and COOL IN THE SHADE have the best profiles by some way.
Both though are drawn in Stalls 1 and 2 and that may not be ideal.
The recent six winners here came from stalls  8 11 10 12 10 9 and the draw does worry me a bit.
I don’t see any sensible other alternatives though and have to commit to these two.

Selection

COOL IN THE SHADE 100/30  Win Bet
SURELY THIS TIME 5/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Grey Horse Handicap

N e w m a r k e t   2.45

11/2 Clear Ice, 6/1 Witchry, 7/1 Time Medicean 8/1 Sutton Veny 10/1 Sarah4s Art, 12/1 Whitechapel, 16/1 Berbice, Den4s Gift 16/1 Emma4s Gift, 16/1 Rylee Mooch, 16/1 Sunshine Always 16/1 Tislaam, 16/1 Zowington, Lady Florence, 20/1 Silver Rime 25/1 Kinigi, 25/1 Quarrel, 33/1 Admirable Duchess, 33/1 Tadalavil.

* This is a race for Grey horses only
* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 265 similar races at this time of year
* SUTTON VENY is a negative as a mare from 5f
* Mares from 5f races won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-41
* SUTTON VENY only has 3 runs this season
* SUTTON VENY looks weak with a career high mark
* ADMIRABLE DUCHESS fails the same statistic
* She is underraced for a mare from 5f and career high mark
* TIME MEDICEAN comes from a 5f race
* He has a months absence doing this which is a worry
* There were winners with that profile
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-49
* TIME MEDICEAN fails that with 4 runs this year
* TIME MEDICEAN won a 5f handicap last time
* No winners did that without a run in 2 weeks
* TIME MEDICEAN doesnt come out that well
* QUARREL – Must be opposed as a seasonal debutant
* WHITECHAPEL only has 1 run this season
* No winners came down in trip with 1 run that year (0-32)
* Well beaten last time WHITECHAPEL looks unsafe
* ZOWINGTON is 9 and absent 60 days
* No horse his age has won absent as long
* SARAH4S ART is 8 and absent 63 days
* He only has 3 runs this season as well
* I think he’s underraced this year with limited backclass
* EMMA4S GIFT is unsafe as a filly from  a Listed race
* Down from 8f no similar profiles won
* LADY FLORENCE didnt run well enough last time
* She will find this trip short of ideal as well
* TADALAVIL looks underraced this year
* I doubt he is in the form to win this
* SILVER RIME is an exposed horse from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* Similar horses aged 6 or more were 4-34
* All 4 winners had at least 6 runs that season
* SILVER RIME only has 4 runs this year
* All 4 winners had no more than 9st 2lbs
* SILVER RIME has 8lbs more weight than any
* SILVER RIME looks unsafe to me statistically
* SILVER RIME has 30 runs but just 1 run at this trip
* He was hammered in that race so he is unproven at 6f
* TISLAAM is an exposed 4yo from 6f
* There are winners doing that but 2 problems
* None carried 8st 8lbs or less and he has 8st 3lbs
* All similar 4yo winners had Class 3 form at least
* TISLAAM has only raced in Class 4 and below
* I do like the recent run and the handicap mark
* Question marks as to whether he’s classy enough
* BERBICE is an exposed 6yo from a 5f race
* I found found a winner like him
* Therefore he is not a negative
* He is on a losing run of 29 though
* Not proven in a big field there are doubts
* I didnt think he offered enough

P o s s i b l e s

* WITCHRY won this race last season
* I thought he was underraced last year but he won
* The race cut up because of rain and only 9 ran last year
* I can’t rule him out after last years win
* Not having had far more runs this season
* WITCHRY doesnt feel safe statistically
* He won last time but he lacks a run in 2 weeks
* No horse won again doing that when older than 6
* WITCHRY is 9 now and thats a concern
* Statistically he is weak and unlike winners
* I said that last year though and he won

* SUNSHINE ALWAYS has a reasonably good profile
* I found a couple of similar 5yo winners like him
* He was 3rd in this race last year finishing fast
* That was his first ever run at this distance
* He would have won in a few more strides
* The issue is has he got the pace to win this 6f race
* Especially in a big field

* CLEAR ICE is an exposed 4yo
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* He has just won 0-74 and 0-79 handicaps
* This is a 0-85 and a little bit tougher
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* I Dont see his chance as better than many
* He has 42 runs and none were on a Grade 1 track
* He was also bought to try and win this race though

* DEN4S GIFT is an exposed 7yo from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* He has a similar profile to Silver Rime
* DEN4S GIFT is just a year older
* He does have more runs this season though
* Thats his crucial advantage over that horse
* DEN4S GIFT is similar to 1 past winner
* DEN4S GIFT has a 0-20 record on turf
* Not worried about that as he has placed many times
* All his wins come at 7f and 8f though
* I wouldnt rule him out but there are doubts
* He will need to be on the right side drawn 20

S e l e c t i o n

KINIGI 25/1
RYLEE MOOCH 16/1

* KINIGI is an exposed mare from 5f
* She has never been out of a Class 4 race before
* Similar horses had a 1-14 record
* That winner was Clearing Sky in this race in 2006
* Clearing Sky had a long absence that day
* KINIGI doesnt but I’d make her a Possible
* I doubt she will win but 33/1 is a fair risk

RYLEE MOOCH 14/1

We have yet to have a 3yo winner of this race but
very few were fancied anyway and there seems no
reason at all why they can’t win. There are 265 of
these 6f Handicaps at this time of year and these
races show horses like RYLEE MOOCH are fine.

* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from 5f races
* Between 13 and 20 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 3 race before
* At least 7 runs that season
* Beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Not carrying more than 9st 6lbs
* Having won a race before
* Starting shorter than 25/1
* RYLEE MOOCH has this profile
* I ran it and found a 5-8 record

Thats a very good record. Admittedly some were
a few years ago and only 1 of the 5 winners were
in a big field. I would have liked a past winner of
this race his age but as I Said few were fancied and
overall his profile is better than anything else here.

S e l e c t i o ns

RYLEE MOOCH 18/1  Tote betfred
KINIGI 25/1 at many including s james PaddyPower or 38/1 Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

Ripon Horse Racing Tip

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Tip At Beverley

I have a selection today for full members which runs in the 4.20 at Beverley
Just to keep full members happy I will duck posting it up here.

Another race I have a few shekels on myself is discussed below.

In the 5.30 I have negatives in the race
and probably too many shortlisted for comfort but
I have a bit on FEAR NOTHING at 14/1 and also a
bit on old friend/foe DESERT STRIKE who has two
reasonable excuses on his last two runs.

B e v e r l e y  5.30

7/2 Verinco, 9/2 Ingleby Star, 5/1 Yurituni, 6/1 Alis Aquilae 8/1 Northern Dare,
10/1 Desert Strike, 10/1 Silvanus 12/1 Fear Nothing, 12/1 Ryedane, 33/1 Divertimenti.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-77 rated horses
* There are 533 similar races in May and June
* VERINCO – His absence of 59 days is a problem
*  No exposed horse overcame that with 1-2 runs this year
* YURITUNI didnt strike me as safe
* She won at 6f last time and drops to 5f
* Thats hard enough to win and she is an exposed filly
* DIVERTIMENTI – Looks vulnerable
* ALIS AQUILAE has a weak profile
* Very few lightly raced seasonal debutants won
* None were as old as he is either
* RYEDANE – Not a negative but better profiles exist
* FEAR NOTHING – 1 similar winner
* NORTHERN DARE – Shortlistable
* DESERT STRIKE – Good profile
* SILVANUS – Good profile
* INGLEBY STAR – Solid profile

SELECTIONS

DESERT STRIKE 12/1 Win Bet   Ladbrokes Paddy Power betfred
FEAR NOTHING 12/1 Each Way   available almost everywhere

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1    Sky   s james

Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips