Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

NEWMARKET 2.35

bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 bet365Coral – VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Horse Racing at Catterick

No Firm Selections today but I have jotted down a few thoughts on
the meeting at Catterick

Best Live Odds available at the link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/today
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C  A  T  T  E  R  I  C  K

The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty.
Statistically the problem is these races are very rare.
There has only been 5 selling races in May over 11f – 13f in the last 15 years
so we are partially blind to what it takes to win a race like this.
Throw in some really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard.
I would be against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT MAYADEEN and SAGUNT.
Several here look more than good enough to win a race like this.
My best guess would beTERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning
a handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying ground and brings
form and fitness into the race. Its an open contest though and stakes would need to be low

I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a seller last time.
You then have Positivity who was beaten 33 lengths just 8 days ago and surely
thats too far a defeat to overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved
she has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his debut this year.
I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE isnt odds on.
He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he will win but if he
drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be then you would be quite worried.
All things being equal I feel DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to win.
CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently. Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1.
He is experienced like most of the past winners of this race were.
He drops from 6f which looks a sensible mood.
After the market move I watched him on video
and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.

I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up in distance.
MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see any more half decent negatives
and didnt feel I have enough to take a strong view about the race.

VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.

WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f  Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race.

The last race at 5.15pm is a mess.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on May 23, 2009

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Latest Account Bets

Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION – RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb – River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

Posted under Main Content

BLAZING BAILEY

Saturday October 25th

Below is a snippet from my full member message today

Newbury 4.30

BLAZING BAILEY 5/2

BLAZING BAILEY is one of those “If” horses. He is a handicap certainty. He has to win “If” he is fit and “If” he can reproduce his form back on the flat. That makes it possible that he could either win this on the bridle or get beaten out of sight and few will have a confident idea which is more likely. I take the view that at 11/4
he could be the bet of the weekend and off the handicap mark he has he has to be backed and I will be surprised if he is beaten. He could well be Account Status. I have tipped many Account Bets with less confidence than I have in him but as I can not if asked assure you of his fitness I can not really make him one but he looks good to me and looks the best bet today.

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N E W B U R Y

I want to avoid most of Newbury today. Only the last race makes any betting appeal. I dont want to spend much time on the juvenile maidens or the big 2yo races as the angles in these races are not good enough to profit from. MONITOR CLOSELY would have to be the selection in the 1.10 race especially as I dont fancy King’s Song but these short priced maidens in big fields are usually best placed in each way doubles and with unknown dangers it only takes one to lower his colours. I would expect him to just about win.

I would have to mention BLAZING BAILEY though in the 4.30 race. Despite being a 6 year old that has not run since April he has been over hurdles for several years now where he has Top Class staying form over hurdles including a placed effort on the Triumph Hurdle and the Stayers Hurdle and a Grade 1 hurdle win in Ireland. This is a horse that
hasn’t seen the Flat since October 2005. Back then he was rated 62 on the Flat. His Hurdling Career has taken off and he was now reached a rating of 163 so he is now 101 lbs lower rated on the Flat and he has to be thrown in off 62. Normally an unscientific guide would be that you could expect to see a hurdles rating about 40-45lbs better than a
flat rating so for BLAZING BAILEY to have one 101 lbs higher does suggest that if he is anything near fit he must surely go close off a low Flat rating of 62. He looks a Handicap good thing to me and he may well end up as the best bet this weekend assuming he can run to form after an absence.

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11/4 earlier when full members got this. Best Price now 5/2 in several places including Ladbrokes, betfred and PaddyPower

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Posted under horse racing tips