Goodwood 2.15

7/2 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Take Ten, 6/1 Lui Rei
15/2 Dungannon, 15/2 Fathsta, 8/1 Crown Choice
11/1 Lutine Bell, 12/1 Love Delta, 14/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
16/1 Everymanforhimself, 16/1 Slip Sliding Away
20/1 Rowe Park, 25/1 Corporal Maddox.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f. There are 40
similar races at this time of year. I want to take
on the 4 year old seasonal debutants today.

* May has seen 272 Class 2 Handicaps
* Thats 272 Class 2 Handicaps at Every Distance
* There were 36 seasonal debutant winners aged 4
* 35 of these had 12 or fewer career starts
* Those that had 13 or more career starts were 1-65
* That winner had Pattern Class form.
* The 4 year old debutants with 13 + runs struggled
* TAKE TEN fails that with 17 career starts
* Starting the year on a career high mark he isnt for me
* LOVE DELTA fails this statistic with 18 runs
* SLIP SLIDING AWAY also fails this statistic
* He has it all to do from his draw anyway
* ROWE PARK is wrong aged 8 from 5f
* LUTINE BELL – Badly drawn and poor last run
* CORPORAL MADDOX didnt do enough last time
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH comes out badly from an 8f race
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – doesnt offer enough
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 7f race
* With 1-2-3 runs this year there were 2 similar winners
* Both had low weights though and he has 10st
* On a Career high mark it may be too much for him
* CROWN CHOICE – Respected but below par last time
* All similar horses that won did more last time out
* DUNGANNON is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had  2-59 Record
* Both winners had more runs than he does
* None ran in the past fortnight (0-23) like him
* DUNGANNON is not far away but not quite right
* PARISIAN PYRAMID won this race last year
* He is exposed and drops from 7f with 2 runs this year
* I found 1 winner like him who ran much better last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID may not have done enough

S e l e c t i o n

* LUI REI comes from 5f but happy with that
* His recent run makes all the difference
* He has been shaping up very well recently
* Impressive last time on tape he looks ready to win

Posted under horse racing tips

A snippet from Guy’s much longer message for today is below.

You can visit the main site direct by clicking this link ==> Racing Tips

LINGFIELD 3.40

View Our 2011 Fixtures At lingfieldpark.co.uk
Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 6f

100/30 Perfect Act, 4/1 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Five Star Junior
6/1 Breathless Kiss, 6/1 Sioux Rising, 8/1 Vintage
10/1 Green Manalishi, 12/1 The Scorching Wind.

This is another 6f handicap but a classier 0-92 race and
there are 188 similar races. THE SCORCHING WIND is
underraced at the moment and comes out badly coming
down from a Mile. GREEN MANALISHI looks to have
problems aged 10 coming up in distance and doing that
without a recent race. Mares like SIOUX RISING from
7f races and 9 or more runs were 0-48 and that’s why I
feel she is opposable. ANNE OF KIEV is a mare coming
from a 6f handicap without a recent run with a fortnight.
Thats not a safe profile. I found 7 winners doing it but
all 7 of these had form in at least a Class 3 race before
and she doesn’t. Most of the mares that won were also
younger and her lack of backclass means I can’t match
her to any winners. Throw in a rise in the weights for
being beaten and she’s now 7lbs higher than her highest
winning mark and in a Class she has never tasted before
and I have my concerns with ANNE OF KIEV. I think
VINTAGE is shortlistable but he has been off longer at
31 days than most others and I felt there were stronger
runners especially as he has never won in this class and
not from his handicap mark.

BREATHLESS KISS – Shaky profile but just ok
PERFECT ACT – Solid profile but a tough handicap mark
FIVE STAR JUNIOR – Good profile and likes small fields

SELECTION

FIVE STAR JUNIOR Each Way 4/1 Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 Skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Posted under horse racing tips