I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

Visually a superb day’s racing. There seems to be a lot of
really big priced horses in today’s message for full members
including a full Account Bet at 10/1 ish.

Here on the free blog however we have just the one race for you.

Not as strong in my opinon as the full member Account Bet
but an interesting runner at a good price.

NB If you abit more serious about your racing I suggest you join as a full member http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

You will get the full message not just one race snippets and all through the week not just on a Saturday. All historic messages are availalbe for you to view.  Also take a nose around the private forums to see what other racing brains are coming up with or have spotted. There is a no quibble refund guarantee to protect you if youdecide its not your personal cup of tea.

Anyhow  on to today..

WARWICK 2.50

Bet Totepool To Support Your Sport
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-120) 3m1f

11/4 Sonny Mullen, 4/1 Winterwood, 5/1 Kristoffersen,
6/1 Oscar Prairie, 10/1 Merigo, 14/1 Mealagh Valley
16/1 Quelqu´un Comme Toi, 16/1 Radmores Revenge
16/1 Very Cool, 20/1 Inghwung, 25/1 Honour High.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
* Febuary has seen 89 similar handicaps
* There’s been 288 similar races between January-March
* SONNY MULLEN comes from 17f and has 4 runs
* I looked at 288 similar races over a 3 month period
* 9 of  the 288 winners came from 17f or shorter
* None had under 5 career starts like SONNY MULLEN
* Horses from any Novice race over 16f-17f were 0-38
* SONNY MULLEN also fails that
* Horses from 17f or less with over 11st were just 1-61
* SONNY MULLEN fails that as well
* Throw in an absence and he looks vulnerable to me
* Horses with 1 run this season concern me
* Especially when having 9 or more runs
* Especially when having no backclass
* RADMORES REVENGE doesnt look fit and fails that
* INGHWUNG is a mare with 1 run that year
* HONOUR HIGH also looks weak with one run
* MERIGO is thrown in on his hurdles form
* Rated 130 over fences he is running here off 110
* That makes him very interesting
* However there are some concerns
* Hard to know if he can translate his form to hurdles
* Hard to know if he is anywhere near fit
* It surely looks a prep race for a long distance chase
* MERIGO is 9 with 1 race that season
* He has no form in Listed or Graded races either
* Look at all 9 year olds with 1 race that season
* Look at the ones with no form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-67
* MERIGO has an unfit profile statistically
* MEALAGH VALLEY has a poor profile absent 688 days
* I dont see him overcoming that with just 4 runs
* OSCAR PRAIRIE is 5 and from a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 288 similar races for horses doing that
* When coming from 2m 6f or shorter they were 0-22
* No 5yo like OSCAR PRAIRIE won any of these races
* Not coming from a Novice Hurdle short of 3 miles
* KRISTOFFERSEN doesnt make much appeal
* He is an exposed 10 year old with no Graded Class
* Only 5 of the 288 winners could say that
* None were absent over a month like him (0-64)
* None had under 4 runs that season like him
* He has a weak profile and the ground looks wrong
* All his wins have come on better ground than this

SHORTLIST

WINTERWOOD  7/2
VERY COOL  8/1
QUELQU´UN COMME TOI  16/1

WINTERWOOD is hard to judge. Lightly raced horse.
Most runs in Ireland. I dont think he has an impressive
profile. I looked at all horses like him with 7-12 runs and
an absence of 7 weeks or more.  You only find a few of
them won and the vast majority had less weight than he
does. I have shortlisted him but I’m not sold on his chance.

* VERY COOL could also go well off topweight
* He only has a 0-120 class race to win
* He has placed 2nd in a 0-140 handicap before
* He isnt exposed which has to help
* If he recaptures his form after a break he could win
* He stays and acts on the ground
* Statistically he has work to do
* I would want more runs this year or a recent run

SELECTION

QUELQU´UN COMME TOI

This horse is a mystery. There is limited evidence to know
how good he is or what type of horse he is. I think he is a
horse that will either win or come nowhere. I love his profile though.
His jockey (Aidan Coleman) was intereviewed the other day about his
beat chance of a winner today. He said it was his outsider in the 3.55pm at 33/1 (Spit).
If he is being honest and knows a lot about both horses than we are in a bit of bother.
Then again he could have no knowledge that the horse is ok and it doesnt pay to listen to them anyway.

* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI has the following profile
* Horses with 5-6 career runs
* Horses aged 6
* Handicap Hurdle last time out
* No form in Graded races
* Horses with that profile were 10-40
* Those running in Febuary had a 6-9 record
* Those like him beaten 16 + lengths last time were 4-9
* Those like him beaten 32 + lengths were 2-3
* Would have been happier if he had won a race before
* That said he has an interesting profile
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI could well be a Player

14/1 at BoyleSports betfred Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Squareuare Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 5/4 at Coral Sky sportingbet

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

—————————————————————————
Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
—————————————————————————

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay

SELECTION - GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Thanks for positive comments received about last weekend’s 12/1 winner hardball.

Glad to see some of you reinvesting a portion of your winnings in a membership of my private service.

This free blog carries just a tiny tiny fraction of the full member advice.

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 11/2  Coral William Hill VC
Win Bet

BOLODENKA is 11/2  but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently - Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION - BOLODENKA

Posted under horse racing tips