Just a quick note to confirm we have nothing for this Saturday for the free blog.

On the upside however over the weeks to come we will have some quite interesting Cheltenham facts and figures for you in the run up to the Festival.

So keep tuned to the blog or if not already on it..for email alerts join the free newsletter at this link Free Horse Racing Tips

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

A good day yesterday with 15 races profiled for full members
and highlighted horses finishing  L W W W L L L P L W L W W W W

8 winners from 15 races examined ain’t too bad.

Today full members have multiple races profiled for them
I did find one Full bet ( my strongest grade ) for them in the 4pm race.

Here on the free blog I have a top of message bet for you ( my second strongest grade )

Full membership is instantaneous so you can get in for todays action right away
if you want it.

here is the link ==> Betting Advice

 

Todays Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock  4.05

100/30 Ohio Gold, 9/2 Cloudy Too, 11/2 Achimota
11/2 Yurok, 6/1 Furrows, 7/1 Tenor Nivernais
7/1 The Chazer, 14/1 Makethe Mostofnow.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* OHIO GOLD is the shortest priced horse
* Bothers me he has less runs this year than anything
* I dont feel two runs is enough for a horse with 15 runs
* Not for a horse thats coming up in distance
* Not for a horse from a Novice Chase
* The 7 past winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 9 chase runs
* The 7 past winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 3 runs this season
* OHIO GOLD only has 2 Chase runs less than all winners
* Every past winner came from a 2m 4f race or further.
* OHIO GOLD doesnt do that either
* I looked at horses from Novice Chases
* Those that stepped up in trip strzggled
* They only won when very lightly raced
* Those with 13 + runs had a 1-78 record
* OHIO GOLD – I think he comes out badly
* TENOR NIVERNAIS comes from a Novice Chase
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* THE CHAZER also comes from a Novice Chase
* He looks too exposed to go in again
* Especially against lighter raced improvers
* MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW isnt running well enough

Shortlist

* CLOUDY TOO – His last win gets him shortlisted
* I’d have prefered him a bit lighter raced though

* ACHIMOTA comes from a 2m Novice Chase
* We know all past winners came from 2m 4f or more
* He isnt like any winner of this race
* There are winners elsewhere just like him though
* FURROWS has the same problem
* With 2 Chase starts I’d have liked 1 more

* YUROK comes from a 3m Novice Chase
* Thats a good profile 2 past winners did that
* The 2006-2007 winners of this did just that
* Both had just 3 Chase starts like YUROK
* His trainer won this in 2011
* That winner had 3 chase runs

Selection

YUROK 6/1 Win Bet
ACHIMOTA 5/1 Saver
Bet them both on betfair  I suggest
( saver: small bet staked to win back the stake on the main bet if the saver wins )

 

Posted under horse racing tips

The law of sod came into play last Saturday.
If you recall I told you that full members got three selections
at short , medium and long odds.

The short priced horse won.
The long priced horse advised each way at 25/1
landed a place.

As the law of sod would dictate I opted for the medium
priced selection here on the free horse betting blog
and that one only managed third.

I have said it many times before however.
The full service is the place to be.
There you get everything and all through the week
as opposed to just a small random sample.

With full members concern my top priority
I am also obligated to most often duck from posting here in public
what I feel is my best advice for the day.

The service has been on fire over the last week.
In addition to the above last Saturday  we have had good
priced winners as follows.

YOURINTHEWILL   BSP 8.08
BROXBOURNE        BSP 8.8
LLAMADAS              BSP 12.83

Join the full service.
That is the spot to be.
A strong and simple no refund guarantee is there
to protect you should you later change your mind.

Moving on to today

My strongest option for full members today
actually runs in the 2.25 at Cheltenham.
It is there in the member area now if you decide to join up.

For the free blog however I have up one of the other previews.
I have bet this myself so don’t think I judge it complete rubbish.
The 2.25 I have staked heavier however.

Good luck if following

Cheltenham  1.15

5/1 Katenko, 11/2 Bless The Wings, 11/2 Bold Sir Brian
8/1 Nadiya De La Vega, 9/1 Pacha Du Polder, Our Mick
12/1 Shoegazer, 14/1 Chance Du Roy
14/1 Fruity O´rooney, 14/1 Tartak, 16/1 Frontier Spirit
16/1 Quantitativeeasing, 16/1 Quincy Des Pictons
20/1 Poquelin, 25/1 Tullamore Dew, 40/1 Hell´s Bay.

This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f. There
are 13 of these Cheltenham races to consider. The
record of horses aged 6-7 in this race is poor so I
would be just a bit wary to bet any that age. Only
last year we saw a 7yo win this but we now know
the horse (The Giant Bolster) was throw in off such
a light weight as he ended up 2nd in a Cheltenham
Gold Cup. PACHA DU POLDER has to go as there
was no male 6yo winner. OUR MICK has to go as
a 7yo seasonal debutant. The record of 7 year olds
puts me off KATENKO and I dont see why the drop
in trip will do him any favours either. He won beyond
3m last time and down to 2m 5f I dont want him in
a race his age group struggle. BOLD SIR BRIAN is
also a 7 year old. I do not see a good enough case
for him when he has 50 days absence and has to
carry a higher weight than almost all past winners.
He has to prove he can handle the track and he is
capable of making mistakes. POQUELIN is highly
unlikely to defy his weight. I would be scpetical of
the horses aged 11 and more. TULLAMORE DEW
and HELL´S BAY look too old. TARTAK hasnt had
a really good run in far too long and I cant bet him.
QUANTITATIVEEASING has two poor runs so far
this year. Half of me thinks he’s an automatic fail
because of that but I can see him running better
but not running his best until the festival. It might
be a Cheltenham prep race. FRONTIER SPIRIT’s
had two bad experiences at this track and I think
he lacks backclass to defy his career high mark.
QUINCY DES PICTONS isn’t handicapped to win.
In last years race CHANCE DU ROY was 5th but
he was well beaten and made mistakes. He also
had 13lbs less weight and a better preparation as
well. I would give FRUITY O´ROONEY a chance
based on his Cheltenham Festival 2nd last year
the risks of course being thats his main aim this
year. I do see him as a positive though.

* BLESS THE WINGS – Shortlistable on his profile
* I’d have liked a shorter absence given the choice

* SHOEGAZER – I think he has a decent chance
* He had an absence last time out as he was gelded
* I made him a negative last time when coming 2nd
* He should be fitter and I like his chances here
* My only real worry is he has been summer jumping
* Thats not the norm for winners of this
* Because of that I make him a PLACE saver

Selection

NADIYA DE LA VEGA is a 7yo mare. Initially I was a
bit concerned that because she fell early last time she
hadnt raced for too long. When I looked at mares with
absences I changed my mind and see this as a plus.
This race has been won by Makounji and Lady Cricket
both mares with similar absences and the former Fell
last time as well. I have my doubts about 7yo’s in this
race but as she’s a mare I am passing her as fine as
a younger mare has won this with an absence. There
is no doubt her Paddy Power form is high class. She
has been left on the same mark and I like her best.

Selection

NADIYA DE LA VEGA 8/1 Win Bet

SHOEGAZER 11/4 Place Bet

The above are rough market odds when I sent my
daily report out to full members  earlier.
You may check live odds at the link below
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-01-26/cheltenham/13-15/betting/

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

It’s a fascinating Hennessy Day and a Newbury and
Towcester dominated message for full members.
I thought Newcastle had a poor card and I wasn’t prepared
to play the cat and mousegame about whether it is on or off.
I have done most of the races at Newbury and Towcester for full members
so hoping for a good day.

For full members I have four highlighted bets today.
Here on the free blog I will post just one of them

I knew a few weeks ago that BOBS WORTH would be the
strongest profile in the Hennessy and that took the shine
off the race as he’s favourite. My angles push me his way.

I will go with BOBS WORTH in the big race. My stats
suggest he is the one but he doesn’t really need to be
there today.

Hennessy Gold Cup Newbury  3.10

I sent the Hennessy Analysis earlier in the week. My angles
clearly point to BOBS WORTH being the likely winner. That
will depend on several things. He has to handle the biggest
field of chasers he has yet encountered and I have to get it right with the negatives.
For an example the age statistics  have to be right about TIDAL BAY who is
2 years olds than all past winners. His chance increases for me as this is a far from  vintage Hennessy but his age puts me off.
There’s a good case for HOLD ON JULIO but I have opposed him  as his sires
record shows none have won over this far and 46 of the Sires 47 winners
came in at least 3 Grades lower and none have won in this class before.
I dont know it that is a very skillfull thing to do or a complete mistake but
he is not my choice becuase of it.
My statistics suggest that THE PACKAGE should have competed in a higher
grade after so many runs if he was to have the class.
I have to be right about several more as well.
BOBS WORTH has the strongest profile and because of that is my selection.

* FRISCO DEPOT – Not quite right but has positives
* FIRST LIEUTENANT – Wont surprise me if he is the one
* BOBS WORTH is the selection

Selection

Win BOBS WORTH 5/1 at various including paddy power bet365

If betting each way on this race today note that sky bet365 and paddy power
are all offering 5 places instead of the usual four.

 

Hennessy Gold Cup Statistics

* Horses with 6-18 career starts do best
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 14-3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Two of the four that were not finished 3rd
* I looked at horses that had raced that season
* None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* Second-season chasers have the best recent record
* They have won 9 of the last 13 renewals
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-44
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* Few hennessy winners have headgear
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-50
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at stan james

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips