We have won for you followers the last three Saturdays in a row. Around the end of October we had another good burst of an 18/1 winner followed by a 6/1 winner.

Thanks to those of you who emailed in over the past few weeks to say thanks for the winners. It always makes me smile to here of bookies getting done over

Four in a row is a big ask however. Don’t go mad with stakes just because the last three produced winnings. A six to one shot with a calculated 25% edge for example is still statisically more likely to lose than win on the day. Bet such horses long term however and you come out well ahead.

 

Saturday’s Free Racing Tip

 

 

I like LOYALTY’s chance a lot mainly because he
has a good profile but also because I can tear holes
in the profiles of many of his opponents. The big
problem here is a big field and the desperate need
for luck in running and there are no guarantees of
that and this makes him unsafe and far more riSky.

Friday’s  Full Service Review

Overall a pretty spicy message yesterday given time was
lost with the Racing Post website going down. I ended up
with 14 races to sort out. There were 4 of these that we
broke level in through either savers or each way bets and
they just cancelled each other out. That left 10 races and
there was a clear victory with 5 winners and 5 losers lots
better than I had hoped for. This included a 10/1 winner
so well ahead on paper and overall a good message which
shows my angles work and also shows the more you read
from the message the richer the experience should be.

L i n g f i e l d  1.50

3/1 Mabait, 9/2 Spirit Of Sharjah, 5/1 Clockmaker
6/1 Loyalty, 8/1 Night Lily, Kakatosi, 12/1 Bravo Echo
12/1 Elna Bright, 16/1 Mr Willis, 25/1 Layline
66/1 Mister Green.

* This is an all aged conditions race over a mile
* Quality race but only 18 similar races are run
* I think you have to look at the Draw here
* I looked at 8f Lingfield races with 10 + runners
* The last few races went to the following stalls
* 8 6 5 8 12 7 11 10 2 8 3 10 3 7
* I think the worst stalls have to be 1-2-3
* The last 8 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* MABAIT is Top rated but I see interesting flaws
* He has fewer runs this year than every other runner
* All exposed horses had more runs this year than him
* All horses from 7f races also had more runs
* MABAIT is exposed and comes from 7f
* Dont feel he is equipped to do that with 4 runs this year
* LAYLINE comes out badly with his absence
* ELNA BRIGHT – Doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* KAKATOSI looks unsafe to me
* He has just 1 run since last July and was thrashed in it
* Throw in a step up in distance he looks opposable
* MISTER GREEN is outclassed
* MR WILLIS comes out badly and is badly weighted
* For an exposed horse up in trip he is underraced
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH wouldnt be first choice
* Not exposed and with 1 run since last June
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH also has a bad draw in stall 1
* NIGHT LILY wouldnt be my first choice
* I think Stall 2 wont do her any favours
* She is also a Mare and comes from a conditions race
* BRAVO ECHO – Not a negative but doesnt offer much

S h o r t l i s t

* CLOCKMAKER – I see him as shortlistable but unsafe
* He comes from 7f and winning last time troubles me
* The only horse winning at 7f last time was younger
* I think there are flaws in his profile but he’s in form
* Not keen on his draw much in stall 3
* LOYALTY – Very nice profile 3 similar winners
* He is well drawn and has easily the best profile
* Will need luck in running but a clear choice

Selection

* LOYALTY 6/1 Each Way bet365 s james

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
****************************************************

HAYDOCK 2.50

bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC s james Tote

Posted under horse racing tips