Haydock Horse Racing Tip

A good day yesterday with 15 races profiled for full members
and highlighted horses finishing  L W W W L L L P L W L W W W W

8 winners from 15 races examined ain’t too bad.

Today full members have multiple races profiled for them
I did find one Full bet ( my strongest grade ) for them in the 4pm race.

Here on the free blog I have a top of message bet for you ( my second strongest grade )

Full membership is instantaneous so you can get in for todays action right away
if you want it.

here is the link ==> Betting Advice

 

Todays Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock  4.05

100/30 Ohio Gold, 9/2 Cloudy Too, 11/2 Achimota
11/2 Yurok, 6/1 Furrows, 7/1 Tenor Nivernais
7/1 The Chazer, 14/1 Makethe Mostofnow.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* OHIO GOLD is the shortest priced horse
* Bothers me he has less runs this year than anything
* I dont feel two runs is enough for a horse with 15 runs
* Not for a horse thats coming up in distance
* Not for a horse from a Novice Chase
* The 7 past winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 9 chase runs
* The 7 past winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 3 runs this season
* OHIO GOLD only has 2 Chase runs less than all winners
* Every past winner came from a 2m 4f race or further.
* OHIO GOLD doesnt do that either
* I looked at horses from Novice Chases
* Those that stepped up in trip strzggled
* They only won when very lightly raced
* Those with 13 + runs had a 1-78 record
* OHIO GOLD – I think he comes out badly
* TENOR NIVERNAIS comes from a Novice Chase
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* THE CHAZER also comes from a Novice Chase
* He looks too exposed to go in again
* Especially against lighter raced improvers
* MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW isnt running well enough

Shortlist

* CLOUDY TOO – His last win gets him shortlisted
* I’d have prefered him a bit lighter raced though

* ACHIMOTA comes from a 2m Novice Chase
* We know all past winners came from 2m 4f or more
* He isnt like any winner of this race
* There are winners elsewhere just like him though
* FURROWS has the same problem
* With 2 Chase starts I’d have liked 1 more

* YUROK comes from a 3m Novice Chase
* Thats a good profile 2 past winners did that
* The 2006-2007 winners of this did just that
* Both had just 3 Chase starts like YUROK
* His trainer won this in 2011
* That winner had 3 chase runs

Selection

YUROK 6/1 Win Bet
ACHIMOTA 5/1 Saver
Bet them both on Betfair  I suggest
( saver: small bet staked to win back the stake on the main bet if the saver wins )

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 16, 2013

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The Law Of Sod

The law of sod came into play last Saturday.
If you recall I told you that full members got three selections
at short , medium and long odds.

The short priced horse won.
The long priced horse advised each way at 25/1
landed a place.

As the law of sod would dictate I opted for the medium
priced selection here on the free horse betting blog
and that one only managed third.

I have said it many times before however.
The full service is the place to be.
There you get everything and all through the week
as opposed to just a small random sample.

With full members concern my top priority
I am also obligated to most often duck from posting here in public
what I feel is my best advice for the day.

The service has been on fire over the last week.
In addition to the above last Saturday  we have had good
priced winners as follows.

YOURINTHEWILL   BSP 8.08
BROXBOURNE        BSP 8.8
LLAMADAS              BSP 12.83

Join the full service.
That is the spot to be.
A strong and simple no refund guarantee is there
to protect you should you later change your mind.

Moving on to today

My strongest option for full members today
actually runs in the 2.25 at Cheltenham.
It is there in the member area now if you decide to join up.

For the free blog however I have up one of the other previews.
I have bet this myself so don’t think I judge it complete rubbish.
The 2.25 I have staked heavier however.

Good luck if following

Cheltenham  1.15

5/1 Katenko, 11/2 Bless The Wings, 11/2 Bold Sir Brian
8/1 Nadiya De La Vega, 9/1 Pacha Du Polder, Our Mick
12/1 Shoegazer, 14/1 Chance Du Roy
14/1 Fruity O´rooney, 14/1 Tartak, 16/1 Frontier Spirit
16/1 Quantitativeeasing, 16/1 Quincy Des Pictons
20/1 Poquelin, 25/1 Tullamore Dew, 40/1 Hell´s Bay.

This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f. There
are 13 of these Cheltenham races to consider. The
record of horses aged 6-7 in this race is poor so I
would be just a bit wary to bet any that age. Only
last year we saw a 7yo win this but we now know
the horse (The Giant Bolster) was throw in off such
a light weight as he ended up 2nd in a Cheltenham
Gold Cup. PACHA DU POLDER has to go as there
was no male 6yo winner. OUR MICK has to go as
a 7yo seasonal debutant. The record of 7 year olds
puts me off KATENKO and I dont see why the drop
in trip will do him any favours either. He won beyond
3m last time and down to 2m 5f I dont want him in
a race his age group struggle. BOLD SIR BRIAN is
also a 7 year old. I do not see a good enough case
for him when he has 50 days absence and has to
carry a higher weight than almost all past winners.
He has to prove he can handle the track and he is
capable of making mistakes. POQUELIN is highly
unlikely to defy his weight. I would be scpetical of
the horses aged 11 and more. TULLAMORE DEW
and HELL´S BAY look too old. TARTAK hasnt had
a really good run in far too long and I cant bet him.
QUANTITATIVEEASING has two poor runs so far
this year. Half of me thinks he’s an automatic fail
because of that but I can see him running better
but not running his best until the festival. It might
be a Cheltenham prep race. FRONTIER SPIRIT’s
had two bad experiences at this track and I think
he lacks backclass to defy his career high mark.
QUINCY DES PICTONS isn’t handicapped to win.
In last years race CHANCE DU ROY was 5th but
he was well beaten and made mistakes. He also
had 13lbs less weight and a better preparation as
well. I would give FRUITY O´ROONEY a chance
based on his Cheltenham Festival 2nd last year
the risks of course being thats his main aim this
year. I do see him as a positive though.

* BLESS THE WINGS – Shortlistable on his profile
* I’d have liked a shorter absence given the choice

* SHOEGAZER – I think he has a decent chance
* He had an absence last time out as he was gelded
* I made him a negative last time when coming 2nd
* He should be fitter and I like his chances here
* My only real worry is he has been summer jumping
* Thats not the norm for winners of this
* Because of that I make him a PLACE saver

Selection

NADIYA DE LA VEGA is a 7yo mare. Initially I was a
bit concerned that because she fell early last time she
hadnt raced for too long. When I looked at mares with
absences I changed my mind and see this as a plus.
This race has been won by Makounji and Lady Cricket
both mares with similar absences and the former Fell
last time as well. I have my doubts about 7yo’s in this
race but as she’s a mare I am passing her as fine as
a younger mare has won this with an absence. There
is no doubt her Paddy Power form is high class. She
has been left on the same mark and I like her best.

Selection

NADIYA DE LA VEGA 8/1 Win Bet

SHOEGAZER 11/4 Place Bet

The above are rough market odds when I sent my
daily report out to full members  earlier.
You may check live odds at the link below
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-01-26/cheltenham/13-15/betting/

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 26, 2013

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Kempton Horse Racing Tip

A nice winner last week for readers here.

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.

I have three staked bets for them today.
A short price – A Medium price – And a Big Price

Here on the free horse betting blog I will stick up
for you the medium price option.

Kempton   1.45

9/4 Glastonberry, 11/4 Climaxfortackle, 4/1 Big Sylv
8/1 Amosite, 8/1 Chambles, 10/1 Zing Wing
12/1 Dancing Welcome, 25/1 Ishiamiracle.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. Not too many of
these races are run at this time of year and that
makes it harder to judge things like age. So far
none of the races went to horses aged 7 or over
so both DANCING WELCOME and  AMOSITE
are unlike any winners. I would not trust such a
stat based on a small sample size but they did
not attract me anyway. ZING WING doesnt feel
safe with his absence. ISHIAMIRACLE is out of
form. I see a strong case for GLASTONBERRY
who’s been in fine form but she has very little in
the way of backclassbackclass and she has to
give weight to horses who have achieved more
than her. CHAMBLES isn’t out of this with fair
excuses last time. BIG SYLV’s profile is good
enough to consider and CLIMAXFORTACKLE
also comes out well and has a good recent run.

Conclusion

Given the prices I originally thought  there was a case to make
about overlooking Glastonberry for an alternative
each way bet but a non runner has ruined the each way frame of the race.
Much depends on how BIG SYLV
copes down in trip and on her first run on a right
handed track and how CLIMAXFORTACKLE gets
on going up in distance. I just prefer the latter.

Selection

* Win CLIMAXFORTACKLE 3/1 victor chandlerstan james

Posted under horse racing tips

Newmarket Free Racing Tip

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

We have a reasonably busy Saturday on the full service with three different bets advised.
Here on the free horse betting blog we will look at just one of them.

Newmarket 5.05

COMPTON’S ELEVEN 6/1 Win Bet
VIOLENT VELOCITY 4/1 Saver

I thought hard about making COMPTONS ELEVEN an account bet with VIOLENT VELOCITY as a saver.
He’s such a typical account bet for me down in class and also conceeding weight to inferior horses.
On Paper he smells like a great bet but the danger is he could now be a sour 8 year old grey mule that has forgotten how to win.
There are other well treated runners as well and I just feel he is a
little short of a full bet especially with the rain about.
In terns of strength he is a very strong selection as I’m also saving on the second best handicapped horse in the race.
Both these horses are so well treated I will be shocked if one doesnt win.
They are both worth a decent bet but just fall short of a maximum.

COMPTONS ELEVEN 7/1 LadbrokesHillss james -Skybet – Paddy Power

VIOLENT VELOCITY 11/2 bet365
VIOLENT VELOCITY 5/1 LadbrokesHills

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NEWMARKET 5.05

AGORA APPRENTICE HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 7f

4/1 Another Try, 5/1 King’s Icon, 13/2 Convince, 13/2 Pretty Officer, 8/1 Tri Chara, 10/1 Bigfanofthat, 10/1 Cavalry Guard, 10/1 Violent Velocity, 12/1 Compton’s Eleven, 14/1 King Of The Moors, 16/1 Rough Rock, 25/1 Majestic Cheer, 33/1 Ramblin Bob.

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

This is a 7f Handicap For Apprentice riders. June and July have seen 64 handicaps like this.
There has been 578 similar races for all types of jockeys and not just Apprentices. I used both trends.

* KINGS ICON has 1 run this year
* In 64 Apprentice races horses doing that were 0-42
* He also has a 65 day absence
* He looks potentially unfit for a semi exposed horse
* I looked at 578 similar 7f handicaps
* No horse as exposed as him won with 1 run and a break
* He is well handicapped and from a shrewd stable
* I would question his fitness though and he isnt for me
* RAMBLIN BOB lost by too far just 3 days ago
* TRI CHARA is hard to fancy
* He is exposed and comes from a 6f race
* No winners did that without a recent run and he’s been off 92 days
* He is also USA Bred and has all his best form on sand
* He may also struggle on the ground
* ROUGH ROCK will struggle to get home on the ground
* He also has the worst draw for me
* PRETTY OFFICER has spent her last races at 10f or more
* Its asking her a lot to drop from 10f to 7f
* No Filly did that in any of the 64 Apprentice races
* They scored very poorly in 578 other races
* There is far too much risk in her as a Filly not won before
* The ground could also hurt to PRETTY OFFICER is out
* MAJESTIC CHEER has to go from a 6f Seller
* CAVALRY GUARD was beaten too far in a 0-55 last time
* I dont see him as good enough
* Not without any form on the ground and winless on grass

POSSIBLES

* KING OF THE MOOR has reasonable claims
* He has a 39 day absence though
* Thats not easy for an exposed 6 year old
* He also has no recent form at 7f in years
* All his runs in the last two years were at 8f or more
* All his wins in the last two years were at 8f and more
* KING OF THE MOOR does have questions to answer
* ANOTHER TRY is inexperienced with 7 runs
* In 64 Apprentice Handicaps only 2 winners had under 9 runs
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* Statistically I dont have a problem but there are issues
* His last win was when given a gift of a Draw
* I dont see his draw today as favourable at all
* He has to come from 6f to 7f and thats not straight forward
* He may also find the ground more testing than he faced before
* I respect him but he isnt for me
* BIGFANOFTHAT has a chance
* He still has to come up from 6f with just 1 run since April
* He certainly has a chance in this race
* CONVINCE is entitled to run well
* I dont have a major problem with him
* VIOLENT VELOCITY has a serious chance
* He is thrown in off his current mark
* The Absence doesnt worry me
* I have found several winners like him
* I rate him a good saver

COMPTON´S ELEVEN is very interesting. I remember making
him an account bet when he won the Grey Horse Handicap her
in 2007. Statistically he is fine. I think I have made a reasonable case against a lot of his rivals.
What interests me though is that he could have a Class advantage.
COMPTON´S ELEVEN is rated 69 and he has to win what is only a 0-64 handicap.
He has come down about 14lbs in the weights within the last year.
He has been running himself fitter and fitter all year as he comes down the
handicap and today is a Career low mark.

* His last run was 6th at Warwick beaten 7 lengths
* That was in a 0-83 Handicap much better than this race
* The Lowest rated horse he faced that day was 70
* The Highest rated horse he faces today is 64
* He was also badly drawn at Warwick in stall 11
* He was last into the turn and finished away from the track bias
* 6th place wasnt bad and the 4th and 5th came out and won since
* His previous race at Folkestone was in a better class 0-78 handicap
* His 4th that day doesnt suggest he couldnt win this 0-64
* He stays – He has won with ground on the soft side
* Most of his wins come on a straight track as well

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on June 27, 2009

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