I do like GALA CASINO STAR. I see a heavy draw bias. This
is a horse who has been out of form on sand. He is not a
sand horse though. He was badly hampered in Ireland at
Dundalk last time. Now He’s back on Grass and very well
treated he looks fitter than anything here and laid out to
take this race for Richard Fahey. He looks one that will
either winning easily or running badly but at 7/1 I Feel he
should be backed much as its a difficult race to win.

DONCASTER 5.55

Universalrecyclingcompany.co.uk Apprentice Handicap
(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f60y

11/2 Zaplamation, 6/1 Sharp Sovereign, 9/1 Blue Spinnaker
10/1 Rosbay, 12/1 King´s Counsel, 12/1 Law To Himself
14/1 Sharakti, 14/1 Swiftly Done, 14/1 Zafranagar
16/1 Frontline Phantom, 16/1 Hong Kong Island, 16/1 Koo
And The Gang, 16/1 Scarab, 20/1 Gala Casino Star, 20/1 Sail Home
25/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Star Addition, 33/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Easy Terms, 33/1 Red Skipper.

This race looks too difficult especially as it has always been a 12f race and this
year its switched to being a 10f race and that means there are zero past renewals.
I ought to mention  the draw which favours low Numbers.
At 4.50pm and 5.20pm there are handicaps over this distance which should show
how high numbers struggle.

Consider this.

* Since 2005 there are 31 Handicaps over this Course+Distance
* Thats 31 Handicaps with 10 or more runners in them
* Horses drawn 13 or more have a 1-104 record
* That sole winner (Timetable) was slightly unusual
* It was a 3yo Handicap and they raced up the middle of the track
* Because of the Draw I would avoid the following horses
* SHARAKTI – STAR ADDITION -ZAPLAMATION
* RED SKIPPER -SAIL HOME -BLUE SPINNAKER
* ROSBAY -   SHARP SOVEREIGN

I like GALA CASINO STAR. He was given a warm up
race in Ireland last week. Very badly impeded and I felt
he was there only for a warm up anyway. He was badly
blocked in for a furlong and ended the race on the bridle.
This time last year he started the season rated 88 yet is
only rated 69 this year.

GALA CASINO STAR 7/1 around earlier but now best priced 13/2 at betfred Tote Sky

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Posted under horse racing tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

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T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE

each way 5/1 bet365

Best Wishes

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips