N e w m a r k e t   5.00

(8) GOLDEN DESERT 18/1

Each Way Bet

* Do not mix the name up with another horse
* Another horse in the same race has a similar name.
* The bet is Number 8 on the card Golden Desert

I’ve gone with GOLDEN DESERT and He is one of
those bets that you know is unsafe but his price does
compensate for that. He is knocking  in a bit aged 7
and hasn’t won for 2 years and it’s not hard to see a
couple of younger horses beating him. That said it’s
a race with a lot of good negatives. There are some
very good reasons why he might win this race. I see
promise in his last run where I flagged him up before
the race at 20/1. He ran well last time and although
I wouldnt have tipped him at 8/1 the 18/1 is far too
big as is the 20/1 on Betfair so going with him today.

N e w m a r k e t   5.00

betfred The Bonus King Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

4/1 Asraab, 13/2 White Frost, 8/1 Bonnie Brae
8/1 Golden Delicious, 10/1 Lutine Bell
12/1 Axiom, 12/1 Mr David, 14/1 Elna Bright
14/1 Gallagher, 16/1 Citrus Star, 16/1 Mia4s Boy
16/1 Woodcote Place, 20/1 Golden Desert
25/1 Space Station, 25/1 Striking Spirit.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 22 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 68 similar races at other tracks
* I think the Draw Shows you want a Middle Draw
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* I would also be worried about horses drawn very high
* I predict the winner will be drawn between 3 and 14
* STRIKING SPIRIT is not well drawn in Stall 16
* I didnt like him profile at all exposed from 6f
* Not without a recent race
* STRIKING SPIRIT is statistically weak
* ASRAAB could have been better drawn in stall 15
* ASRAAB only has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that in 68 races had a 1-19 record
* That winner was a completely different type
* ASRAAB has a long absence as well and only 3 runs
* Its an Unsafe profile and not a great draw
* I’d be a Fool to discount him from Godolphins
* As an option in this race he doesn’t really appeal
* WHITE FROST has a bad draw in Stall 1
* I dont like his profile from a 3yo handicap either
* There were 4 winners doing this
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-48
* WHITE FROST has just 4 runs and I see him as weak
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a bad draw in Stall 14
* I looked at Exposed horss in 68 similar races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 0-43
* WOODCOTE PLACE has only 4 runs and is 8 years old
* No exposed horse aged 6 won without at least 6 runs
* WOODCOTE PLACE has to be underraced this year
* MIA4S BOY also looks underraced this year
* He is 7 and has had just 4 runs this season
* ELNA BRIGHT won a 5f handicap last time
* More than happy to oppose him doing that
* Especially as an exposed 6 year old and he looks wrong
* AXIOM is 7 and only 2 winners were as old
* I looked at all exposed horss aged 6 or more
* Those without Pattern Class form won just 5 races
* Most of these had more runs that season than him
* None of these carried more than 9st weight as well
* AXIOM has a difficult task from Topweight
* GALLAGHER is very well treated these days
* There is a doubt about what he can achieve these days
* Recently changed stables he ran ok last time
* He is underraced this year though
* Exposed horses from 6f or shorter struggled
* Those that won were rare and all had far more runs
* GALLAGHER falls short for me
* Fillies dont have a great record in these races
* None were absent as long as BONNIE BRAE
* BONNIE BRAE looks wrong as a filly absent 63 days
* Winning last time with that absence worries me
* BONNIE BRAE doesnt offer me enough
* GOLDEN DELICIOUS is a 3yo filly
* These 3yo fillies have a poor record and he isnt for me
* SPACE STATION is an exposed 5yo
* Statistically he is generally fine with no weak areas
* The only question remains has he got the class
* There are some factors that worry me
* SPACE STATION has a career high mark
* He has only ever won in a Class 4 race before
* He needs to produce a career best by some way
* All his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* MR DAVID is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-44
* That winner had much less weight than he does
* None had raced in Group class before like him
* I Dont fancy him but there are better negatives
* Wouldnt be a complete shock but not for me

S h o r t l i s t

* CITRUS STAR is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those with 13-20 runs like him were only 1-59
* All 3 of these unexposed winners were different
* Troubles me he only has 5 runs that season
* I’d like more and I cant match him exactly to a winner
* CITRUS STAR is respected and shortlistable
* I did struggle to find enough I liked

* LUTINE BELL is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* I found 4 winners that had that profile in 68 races
* LUTINE BELL was 2nd last time in a tough race
* That was a career best performance
* He has to repeat that today but should go well
* A couple of things worry me
* I think he has plenty of weight for his profile
* There is a chance his last run was a falsely run race
* The 1-2-3 all came from behind that day
* They may have benefitted from the pace of the race
* I wasnt overkeen he has just 1 race in the last 59 days
* Shortlistable but not completely convinced

* GOLDEN DESERT is a worrying aged at 7
* That said we had 2 horses winning aged 7
* Both were very well raced that year like him
* Both ran well last time in 7f handicaps like him
* I flagged him up as very interesting last time out
* Go back a year and he was 2nd here in a similar race
* That run would win this and he is 9lbs lower today

SELECTION – GOLDEN DESERT 18/1 Eachway at BoyleSports & William Hill

See full market odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-24/newmarket/17-00/betting/

 

 

.

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Another good day yesterday as our main bet POLLYS MARK won for full Members  at 5/2.
It looked like he had been caught on the line by a fast finisher but we got the verdict
and I’ll happily take that as we have had big priced horses beaten this year at 1.01 and similar prices in running.
Whilst nobody believes these things even out over a season its nice to get one that did look like getting away from us.
Either a great ride or one nice piece of luck but either way another valuable winner.
*******************
Join the Full Service Now and get the full message for today including any official bets.
What you see below is just a small snippet.
Full Message live in our member area now.

*******************

On to Today

ASCOT 3.40

Totesport.com Challenge Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 7f

13/2 Redford, 10/1 Axiom, Kakatosi, 10/1 Sarasota Sunshine
12/1 Side Glance, 16/1 Rulesn´regulations, 16/1 St Moritz
20/1 Citrus Star, 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Suruor, 25/1 Acrostic 25/1 Advanced, 25/1 Colepeper,
Gramercy, 25/1 Imperial Guest, 25/1 Navajo Chief, Swift Gift, 25/1 Treadwell, 25/1 Wannabe King
33/1 Castles In The Air, Golden Desert, 33/1 Light From Mars 33/1 Mia´s Boy, 40/1 Gallagher,
Jimmy Styles 40/1 Kyllachy Star 40/1 Lowdown, 50/1 Bonnie Charlie, 50/1 Marajaa.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-106
* Ascot has had 18 renewals but 2 were run at other tracks
* There has been 38 Similar races at other tracks
* Horses from 6f races underperformed
* Those with 13 + career starts were 1-78
* Horses aged 4 or 5 from 6f races were 0-49
* No horse aged 7 or more came from 6f
* Horses beaten 4 + lengths over 6f last time were 0-47
* Those from 6f absent a Month won nothing
* The following horses from 6f races are all rejected
* GOLDEN DESERT -CASTLES IN THE AIR – JIMMY STYLES
* ADVANCED – GRAMERCY – LOWDOWN – BONNIE CHARLIE
* REDFORD is exposed and won a 6f handicap last time
* No past winner of this race was like him
* There was 1 similar winner in the 38 other races
* That horse didnt have a penalty and he is opposable
* In 38 races horses aged 7 or more were just 1-50
* MARAJAA looks too old
* Horses absent 7 + weeks were 2-81 in the 38 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-36
* Those aged 5 or more with that absence were 0-23
* MIA´S BOY – NOBLE CITIZEN fail that
* Horses from 3yo handicaps were 2-45
* Those that came from 7f or shorter were 0-29
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-24
* Those that won 3yo handicaps last time were 0-10
* NAVAJO CHIEF – KAKATOSI are opposed on those angles
* You dont want a 3 year old that ran in Group class before
* In 38 similar races these horses are 0-71
* TREADWELL fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-43
* ST MORITZ fails that
* ACROSTIC fails that
* SIDE GLANCE fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 3-94
* None of these were aged 5 or more like ACROSTIC
* In 38 similar races Fillies have a 1-55 record
* None were aged 4 + (0-26) or had 7 + runs (0-44)
* SARASOTA SUNSHINE fails that
* I looked at 4 year olds with 13 + career starts
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 1-24
* WANNABE KING fails that and isnt like that 1 winner
* That winner had more backclass than he does
* The same is said for SURUOR
* He is a similar type and unlike any winners
* KYLLACHY STAR is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* There were winners like that but all came from better races
* Males aged 4 absent over a Month were 1-40
* RULESN´REGULATIONS fails that and looks unsafe
* AXIOM won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 2-32 record
* None were absent more than 2 weeks (0-18)
* There was 1 exposed horse doing like him
* He had a more recent run less weight and more runs that year
* AXIOM has problems I dont think he will overcome
* Horses aged 3 with 5 + career starts were 7-140
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that year were just 1-83
* Those that didnt run within 7 days were 0-82
* CITRUS STAR fails that and is opposed
* SWIFT GIFT is a 5 year old absent 42 days
* No winners like that won with his absence
* SWIFT GIFT is vulnerable with that absence

SHORTLIST

GALLAGHER  40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

* COLEPEPER is 3 and comes from 8f
* 3 year olds doing that with 9 + runs were 2-24
* Those beaten under 6 lengths last time were 2-12
* I would not rule him out at a big price
* LIGHT FROM MARS is an exposed 5yo
* He comes from a 7f handicap and has no Group form
* Horses like that running within 4 weeks were 4-22
* Those with 8 + runs this year beaten under 10 lengths last time
* This improved his record to 4-14
* The 1992 and 2001 winners of this race had that profile
* IMPERIAL GUEST  is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile had a 2-5 record in 38 races
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* GALLAGHER is 4 and has 13 + career starts
* He comes from a 7f handicap in the last fortnight
* Horses with that profile with 7 + runs this season are 4-23
* Those beaten less than 6 lengths last time are 4-17
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* The 2002 winner even came from the same Handicap as him

SELECTION

GALLAGHER  40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

My shortlist has thrown up 4 rank outsiders.
Don’t know if thats a ridiculous fluke or what’s happened there !!
If there is one selection then GALLAGHER  at 40/1 interests me as the best option
but at these prices I’d be an idiot not to have some small bets on all 4.
I have decided on a pretty low stake that I’m prepared to lose in a race as vile
as this and I’ve had small bets on all 4 of these runners on Betfair at prices that
are far bigger than they should be.
I doubt I will get the winner but the angles steer me this way and at these prices its not too
hard to trust them and have 4 small value bets at massive prices.

Betfair is probably your best bet if betting long odds horses on the nose.

The link below gives best bookie odds however.

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-25/ascot/15-40/betting/

best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

Good main bet winner last week on the blog with Russian George drifting out a touch to 11/4 and winning.

Today we are back to normal style with just a small snippet from the main message.

Not our main bet of the day as paying clients do not like it when we post them up here …. so we do it very rarely.

Join Up Properly I suggest.

On to today and a bit of interest at Goodwood.

GOODWOOD 2.25

Bluebay Handicap
(Previously Known As The Shell House Stakes)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

9/2 Bullwhip, 9/2 Desert Creek, 8/1 Hajoum, 9/1 Fathsta
9/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Marajaa 12/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
12/1 Woodcote Place, 14/1 Coasting 14/1 Gallagher
20/1 Carnaby Street, 25/1 Elna Bright 33/1 Aspectus.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 38 similar races in September

Horses aged 7 and more have struggled in these races and have a weak 1-50 record. WOODCOTE PLACE is 7 and has both a career high mark and an absence. MARAJAA is 8 and also has a career high mark and no recent race. ASPECTUS has to go as well as a 7yo with a poor last run. Exposed horses from a 6f race struggled. Those without a run in 2 weeks won nothing so FATHSTA looks opposable. Horses from 3yo handicaps have a 0-14 record in this race. Those from 3yo handicaps over 7f have a 0-29 record in the 38 similar races. BULLWHIP fails that as does CARNABY STREET. Initially it wasnt a statistic that I believed in but in 38 races there were 11 winners aged 3 and the ones that had form in Listed or Group races before had a 0-71 record. CARNABY STREET and BULLWHIP have got Group class form and that undermines their chance. I thought ELNA BRIGHT had been absent too long for an exposed horse.
COASTING comes out badly with his absence. Horses with big
weights have struggled in this race. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH looks hard to fancy with his weight and a career high mark as well as coming from the worst draw. If you take exposed horses from an 8f race you find a 3-47 record. LIGHT FROM MARS shares that profile. However none of the 3-47 winners were aged 5 so I cant match him and they all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt. None of them had more than 9st either so with 9st 9lbs and the other angles he fails I see LIGHT FROM MARS running ok but not winning. There are 3 horses I felt I could shortlist in this.

SHORTLIST

HAJOUM – 1 similar winner who was less exposed. Ground doubt.

GALLAGHER – Complicated to read but shortlistable

DESERT CREEK – 1 similar winner but not an exact match

No outstanding profiles in this race. I notice DESERT CREEK and GALLAGHER come from the best trial race at Goodwood. That race provided the winner in 1993 1994 2000 2005 2006. I think GALLAGHER has a far better chance than it looks. He is coming down the weights. When he reaches the point where his ability excedes his rating he will win. Not certain to be today but at 20/1 and more I think he is overpriced. HAJOUM has a decent chance and I suspect his chance is about handling softer ground and how much it has or has not dried out. My problem is just how to stake the race with 3 shortlisted so I go this way

Win Bet – GALLAGHER 16/1
Win Bet – HAJOUM 10/1

Saver Bet to break level on DESERT CREEK

Current best odds available at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/

Posted under horse racing tips

ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED – MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power bet365 VC * more

Posted under horse racing tips