No Horse Has Done This in 21 Years

Mathematician Christmas Newsletters

As I mentioned in the previous newsletter

I promised you I would be sending you a sample of a Negative Profile

I have that for you here today for am upcoming Saturday race
where we have a horse trying to do something no horse has done in the last 21 years.

Also for the Welsh National I have some early research into sire stats.

These sire stats are of course just one componant of a total race assessment.

I will give you more later as research is done.

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Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

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S a t u r d a y s R a c i n g

C h e l t e n h a m 2.30

Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

(Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

UNIONISTE v WALKON

This race is run on Saturday. I will be doing full analysis

in my daily message on the day but I wanted to show a

very interesting difference between these two horses as

they are Joint Favourites and both are fancied to win it.

UNIONISTE

On Saturday Paul Nicholls will probably be upbeat and

positive about this 4 year old. There will be many people

backing him and if UNIONISTE manages to win then the

majority will collect their winnings without any idea that

he is trying to do something no horse like him has done

before. Thats not to say he wont win. He could easily do

it but unless you understand the Context of the bet you

are placing and appreciate what you are backing him to

do then you may as well not worry about the intelligent

side of gambling and go and buy a scratch card instead.

* Consider the following

* Since 1991 Cheltenham have had 477 Handicap Chases

* Thats 477 Handicap Chase at any distance in any class

* No 4 year old has ever won one of these 477 races

* No 4 year old has ever placed in one of these 477 races

* UNIONISTE is trying to become the first to do that

* Admittedly only 3 horses aged 4 have tried

* These 3 horses all failed to finish

* Original Fly- Always behind – tailed off and pulled up

* Whimper – Towards rear of midfield struggling when Fell

* Frosted Grape – Weakening and No Chance when Fell

Now if UNIONISTE wins he will have done something no

horse has done in the last 21 years. If he does win many

that back him will congratulate themselves saying how a

4 year olds was throw in and how skillfull it was to choose

him. Very few will understand how 4 year olds have done

and they will collect their winnings ignorant of the facts.

WALKON

This horse is the Joint Favourite with Unioniste and has

the more interesting profile of the two.

* Horses with 6-7-8-9 Chase stars dominate this race

* They have won 8 of the last 9 renewals of this race

* WALKON matches that with 6 Chase starts

* Horses with recent races dominate this race

* WALKON comes from the Paddy Power Gold Cup

* The 1997 2006 2009 2010 2011 winners did the same

* They all finished 1-2-3-4-5 in the Paddy Power like him

I thought the WALKON v UNIONISTE comparison was

fascinating and on the above data surely WALKON is

the better bet at the prices and I would also consider

him in the match bet if anything around even money.

 

 

W E L S H N A T I O N A L

SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS

STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND


Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there

is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not

done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly

as many racecourses have misleading distances. This

sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely

different distance to those advetised. Then you have a

lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as

I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races

that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.

That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any

horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help

and although this method is only a smaller piece of the

overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.

 

* What we do know is this

* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f

* He has to do that in a High Class race

* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too

 

I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may

find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won

in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I

try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.

* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National

* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more

* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races

* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS


* The following results are in order of my findings

* The Top of the table have the best records

* These are most likely to win Class long distance races

* And most likely to do that on bad ground

 

Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground

JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record

TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record

GILES CROSS 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record

LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record

MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record

VIKING BLOND 0-3 record

ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record

SONA SASTA 0-5 record

QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record

BRADLEY 0-8 record

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record

ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record

ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record

 

 

Detailed Results of the Findings

JOIN TOGETHER

* His sire has 610 winners

* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record

* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd

 

TEAFORTHREE

* His sire has 608 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record

 

GILES CROSS

* His sire has 471 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record

 

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE

* His sire has 611 winners

* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record

* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f

 

LE BEAU BAI

* His sire has 150 winners

* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record

* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race

 

MICHEL LE BON

* His sire has 71 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record

* That winner came in a Cross Country race though

 

VIKING BLOND

* His sire has 11 winners

* None of these came at 3m 3f or more

* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy

 

ALFIE SPINNER

* His sire has 481 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup

 

SONA SASTA

* His sire has 29 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record

* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed

 

QUARTZ DE THAIX

* His sire has 37 winners

* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record

* None of the 6 losers even placed

 

BRADLEY

* His sire has 361 winners

* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record

* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy

 

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

* His sire has 141 winners

* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record

* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f

 

ROALCO DE FARGES

* His sire has 91 winners

* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record

* There was a Grand National winner on good ground

* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races

 

ALFIE SHERRIN

* His sire has 347 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record

* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National

*****************************************

Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips

The Spring Mile

Following on from a winner at 9/1 in the Gold Cup
George Guru won last week for us at about 13/8.

I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster  2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS  has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1  in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

 

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PS   I have further  full bets for full members today in the 6.05

So plenty of time to get them and get on if you wish to join up as a client proper.

See Here For More info ==> Betting Advice

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2012

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Saturday After Cheltenham

No free tip message today. I only put a
few hours in to the Saturday meeting after Cheltenham
as the festival work is so demanding and I find it impossible
to raise my game today.
We made some serious profit at Cheltenham.
That’s over now and we have targets ahead.

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

These are based on the past thirteen years of Cheltenham Gold Cup runnings.

We go to this level for almost all races we anlaysis whether its a major festival such as Cheltenham or a minor meeting in January. Working harder than others produces an edge.

 

Cheltenham Friday 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974
* Two recent winners came from Handicaps
* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Vincent OBrien County Handicap Hurdle

KHACHATURIAN yesterday on the free blog was  speculative
at a massive price but I feel I made a reasonable case for
him at the price. He got into the race but fell short when
it mattered and  finished only 10th. In such a huge field
confidence is impossible but I shortlisted only two and I
found the winner but went for the bigger priced horse as
I didn’t see any great value in Junior. The wrong choice.

One Strong Bet stands out to me today for Full Members.

She will put us ahead for the week if she wins.
It is always a  gruelling week but at least the prices are
good and you only need one winner to rescue Matters.

Aside from that one  I do like a lot today and feel confident in all  my bets.
ALARAZI whom I discuss below is a horse I felt should be backed at 8/1 but he has Far more
to beat than my Full Bet.

The Gold  Cup fascinates me.
LONG RUN and TIDAL BAY stand out to me.
I have backed both of these personally and if Tidal Bay wasnt in the field
I may have gone in much harder on LONG RUN. I’d love to
end with a Grand Annual bet but the ferocious field puts me off any serioius cash
so ANQUETTA is just a Mention for those who feel they have to play the race.

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent OBrien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

13/2 Alarazi, 7/1 Alaivan, 8/1 Dirar, 8/1 Ski Sunday
12/1 Blackstairmountain, 12/1 Final Approach
12/1 Snap Tie, 14/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 14/1 Soldatino
16/1 Notus De La Tour, Salden Licht, 16/1 Secret Dancer
20/1 Ciceron, 20/1 Hunterview, Bellvano, 25/1 Zanir
33/1 Cockney Trucker, 33/1 Dee Ee Williams
33/1 Grey Soldier, 33/1 Inventor, 33/1 Praxiteles
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Spring Jim, 66/1 Ellerslie Tom
66/1 Gloucester, 66/1 Nearby, 66/1 Premier Dane.

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* The weather in December caused a lot of problems
* I said then it would affect horses fitness in March
* I think this race has been affected by that
* I would want at least 3 runs this season
* SNAP TIE has to go as a seasonal debutant
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3 4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* SKI SUNDAY doesnt interest me with 1 run this year
* BELLVANO is out with 1 run this season
* SALDEN LICHT has ran just twice this year
* SOLDATINO  has ran just twice this year
* NOTUS DE LA TOUR has ran just twice this year
* FINAL APPROACH has ran just twice this year
* DIRAR has only raced twice this year
* He has to prove he can act at Cheltenham as well
* ZANIR looks underraced with 2 runs this season
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* SALDEN LICHT fails that
* GET ME OUT OF HERE fails that with 3 runs
* BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN also fails that
* ELLERSLIE TOM fails that
* BELLVANO fails that
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18
* SALDEN LICHT fails that
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN also fails that
* SKI SUNDAY also fails that
* INVENTOR has been absent 210 days failing that
* FINAL APPROACH has been absent longer than ideal
* PRAXITELES has a nasty absence as well
* GLOUCESTER fails the absence statistic
* PREMIER DANE fails the absence statistic
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* TARKARI fails that
* NEARBY doesnt look too well handicapped
* He has a lot of weight for an older horse
* I dont think he will give the weight away
* GREY SOLDIER needs abnormal improvement
* On his last run which was his first since October
* No past winners came from Chases
* DEE EE WILLIAMS doesnt look safe doing that

BIG PRICED POSSIBLES

* COCKNEY TRUCKER is older than ideal aged 9
* There were winners his age and his profile looks ok
* Well raced and fit this year I respect him
* I dont think he will win his as a 9 year old
* I see him as vulnerable but he shouldnt be 66/1
* COCKNEY TRUCKER is far too big at that price
* HUNTERVIEW comes out as fine
* I didnt think he would win again off a career high mark
* Not as a 5 year old but 50/1 is too big a price
* CICERON has done enough to shortlist
* The demands of this track will test him
* He has too much form on sharp flat tracks for me
* Statistically fine but with outside flaws

SHORTLIST

* SECRET DANCER has a fine chance
* Not dissimilar to last years winner
* Only in that he has just 3 runs this season
* Not convinced he will be fit enough

* ALAIVAN has to be shortlisted
* Only 1 horse aged 5 had 11st 1lbs or more though
* That horse won the Imperial Cup just 7 days ago

* ALARAZI looks a very strong runner
* His win 6 days ago shortlists him comfortably
* Horses coming from the Imperial Cup are a poor 1-37
* Horses that won the Imperial Cup last time are 1-7
* Thats much better but that winner was a 5yo
* He was lighter raced than ALARAZI as well
* That said off 10st 4lbs he  is a huge runner

SELECTION

ALARAZI looks strongest to me
8/1 at bet 365LadbrokesWilliam Hill

* I also like Alaivan to beat Ski Sunday in a match bet

Posted under Major Horse Races