This not the race I am directing paying clients to bet in today.

It is however the race most asked about  in my inbox.

Here are my stats and quick thoughts.

 

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

18/1 ish available on Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

Close to a big Cigar yesterday for full members.

Beaten by a neck in the second leg almost landing an 87/1 win double.

Seeing how a race was assessed and trying to learn from it can often be beneficial. You can follow Guy’s reasoning  below.

 

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices? Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices? Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 So Young, 3/1 Oscars Well, 6/1 First Lieutenant
8/1 Rock On Ruby, 10/1 Minella Class, 10/1 Tornado Bob
14/1 Megastar, 25/1 Aikman, 33/1 Habbie Simpson
50/1 Highland Valley, 100/1 Accordintolawrence
100/1 Ohio Gold.

This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f. Recently
some of the long established biases in this race changed
and several of the strongest angles are now looking out
of date and there has been a sea change. At least we can
argue that this hardly ever goes to a huge price winner.

* Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate this race
* I dont like AIKMAN as a 7 year old
* Not without form in Graded Class before
* MEGASTAR was beaten too far last time
* Horses from similar races to him had a miserable record
* OHIO GOLD is outclassed
* ACCORDINTOLAWRENCE is also outclassed
* HIGHLAND VALLEY looks the wrong type
* You don’t want horses coming from ordinary Novices
* HABBIE SIMPSON showed his limitations last time

POSSIBLES

* SO YOUNG comes with a massive reputation
* It will be interesting to see how good he is
* SO YOUNG has a lot to prove in my view
* He has no form in Graded Class run
* 5 of the last 6 winners came from Graded Class
* 11 of the last 13 winners ran in Grade 1-2 class over hurdles
* 16 of the last 17 winners had Grade 1-2 form before
* SO YOUNG Lacks that and its a problem
* Especially as he comes from a 2m race
* There have been recent winners coming from 2m races
* They all came from Graded races over 2m
* SO YOUNG has only raced twice over hurdles before
* I dont like his profile and felt he wanted Graded backclass

* They are three Grade 1 Novice Hurdles at the festival
* This race – The Supreme Novice – The Albert Bartleyy
* There are 37 renewals of these races in recent years
* I looked at horses that had Never run in Grade 1 or Grade 2
* There was a miserable 4-280 record
* Three of the 4 runners had Under 4 career starts
* Gallileo (1 run) Indefence (3 runs) Shadow Leader (2 runs)
* Horses doing this with 4 or more starts were 1-148
* Last years Supreme winner Menorah did it with 5 runs
* He was the only horse thats done it with 4 + runs
* TORNADO BOB has to try and beat that with 7 runs
* TORNADO BOB has to be a negative
* He has 7 runs yet no Graded form and beaten last time
* SO YOUNG has 3 runs since coming from France
* Thats slightly less of a worry but its still a big issue
* Because of this I would question SO YOUNG

SHORTLIST

OSCARS WELL

I dont have a statistical problem with this horse. Statistically  he appears fine.
My reservations would be the ground as he’s not faced ground as quick as
this and it may trouble him. It’s more than possible his Grade One win last
time may take a  lot out of him.

* MINELLA CLASS can’t be ruled out of this
* He is 6 and comes from a 2m 5f race
* Horses with 4-5-6 runs have a strangely bad record
* MINELLA CLASS casts a seed of doubt because of it

* FIRST LIEUTENANT last ran in December
* All past winners had raced in January or Febuary
* I’d ignore that statistic as he misses it by 3 days only
* He has to come from a  2m race but he looks reasonable
* He looks the right sort to run fresh

* ROCK ON RUBY has a reasonable chance
* I looked at 6 year olds from 2m 5f races
* There were 3 winners and they were different
* They were either very lightly raced
* Or much more experienced
* You have to wonder if his last run was good enough
* I would also have liked more hurdle runs
* I’d see him as no more than a Possible
* I think He will improve on faster ground
* His full sister loved faster ground
* I see him as the second best each way option

SELECTION

My Stats show that SO YOUNG has a strong statistical
problem that no horse at the festival has yet overcome
in any of the Novice Races. My reservation about that
statistic apart from the infectious gossip suggesting he’s
working like a Champion is that there are just 12 horses
in the race. This is the Smallest Field for this race since
the 1980′s and that will help SO YOUNG and undermine
my statistic especially as several of these are outsiders.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

RSA Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/4 Time For Rupert, 7/1 Aiteen Thirtythree
7/1 Jessies Dream, 9/1 Wayward Prince , 10/1 Mikael
D´haguenet, 10/1 Wymott, 12/1 Bostons Angel
14/1 Master Of The Hall, 14/1 Quel Esprit
14/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Magnanimity
100/1 Elysian Rock.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m

TIME FOR RUPERT

Second in last years World Hurdle TIME FOR RUPERT is
a Grade 1 winner in waiting. If he wins this one it will have to be
without my money. I have some problems with him.
The last 10 winners had 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 chase starts
and he looks inexperienced to me with only 2 races. He is
going to have to try and overcome that with an absence of
95 days. We havent had a winner defy more than 53 days
since 1991 in this race and that could impact on his fencing
considering his inexperienced. On top of that just two races
this year leave him short of runs. He has fewer than any of the
past winners in recent years. Not from a top stable he’s got
flaws in his profile and looks underpriced to me.

* THE GIANT BOLSTER is the only 6yo in the race
* Not the best aged group and from a small stable
* No winners came from Novice Handicaps over 21f or less
* I see that as unsatisfactory and he looks wrong
* I’d want at least 3 or more runs this season
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had under 3 runs that year
* ELYSIAN ROCK is not up to this class
* MASTER OF THE HALL looks unsafe to me
* I find him a little bit on the inexperienecd side
* Not convinced he will stay or like this course
* His Trainer has questioned his stamina over this far
* He made mistakes on his only run here
* He has too much form on flat tracks for me
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE only has 2 Chase starts
* He has less experience than any recent winners
* That troubles me and he is not for me
* Not sure how comfortable he will be in this sort of race
* I looked at 7 year olds without Grade 1 form before
* There were 4 winners and they all had 4 + runs that year
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE fails that with just 3 runs
* QUEL ESPRIT only has 2 Chase starts and fell in one
* He looks short of chase experience

SHORTLIST

* BOSTONS ANGEL looks fine statistically
* Not sure if he will be good enough though
* His 2 Graded Chase wins came out of the blue
* Faster ground could be a problem as well
* MAGNANIMITY comes from the same race
* MAGNANIMITY has no obvious profile issues
* I would worry most about the faster ground
* He looks a horse that may want it softer
* MIKAEL D´HAGUENET has the right number of runs
* He fits my profile like a glove in that regard
* The only angle he fails is he wasnt 1st or 2nd last time
* I don’t mind that as it was in a Grade 1 race and was 3rd
* He has also won at festival before over hurdles
* It is off putting he has not won any of 3 chase starts
* There are doubts about his jumping
* He does tend to jump right handed
* His sire has a far better record with his hurdling runners
* WYMOTT has just had enough experience
* He would appeat to have a reasonably solid chance
* I did look at 7 year olds without Grade 1 form before
* There were 4 winners and they all had 4 + runs that year
* WYMOTT has 3 runs and I’d have liked another
* All 4 winners  also prepped at 3m and he didnt
* One to two minor flaws in his profile for me
* I also dont like the  cheekpieces for a RSA horse
* WAYWARD PRINCE is a little on the inexperienced side
* He has a bare minimum of runs but I’d like a few more
* I looked at all similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3 runs that year
* There were 2 winners in recent years
* Those winning Novice Chases last time were 0-15
* Not a bad overall profile but not a very close match

SELECTION

* JESSIES DREAM has 5 Chase starts
* That will give him an edge over several of these
* The only statistic he fails is a run 66 days ago
* Every Past winner since 1991 ran within 52 days
* I think that has to be forgiveable
* You can argue just 1 of the last 12 winners were 8yo’s
* Several won before that though and I dont see an issue
* He will appreciate the better ground as well
* There is the fact he has no Cheltenham form
* That is a worry but he also has advantages
* I love the fact he has 5 runs over fences
* His market dangers all conceded him that experience
* Time For Rupert and Ainteen Thirty Three have just 2 runs
* Wymott -Wayward Prince – Mikael Dhaguenet  just 3 runs
* JESSIES DREAM could be best placed to handle this race

CHELTENHAM 2.05  – FIRST LIEUTENANT 7/1

CHELTENHAM 2.40  – JESSIES DREAM 8/1

Each Way Double

Posted under Major Horse Races

We head off to Ascot this week for our free Saturday horse racing tip.

This is just a small extract from a much more comprehensive analysis of todays racing we provide to full members over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

ASCOT 3.10

Carey Group Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m1f

7/2 Woolcombe Folly, 4/1 Cockney Trucker, 9/2 Noble Alan
7/1 Consigliere, 7/1 Pickamus, 7/1 Tatenen, 15/2 King Edmund 20/1 Piraya.

This is a Class 2 Handicap Chase. I looked at the 58 similar Class 2 Handicaps in November between 2m and 2m 2f to get an idea of what has been winning these races. Horses in 58 races that dropped from 2m 5f or more with 1 run that season were 0-21 and that puts me off TATENEN. I dont think PICKAMUS or KING EDMUND did enough last time
out. The issue with COCKNEY TRUCKER apart from the
ground possibly being too soft is his absence. I have found  an 8yo Novice Chase winner like him but that horse had a far more recent run and won a Cheltenham race and he has only won a Huntingdon Chase and 63 days ago and that is not enough for me. I dont fancy PIRAYA at 2 Miles first
time out. He drops 14f in distance and got round at Aintree
in the Grand National so 2m first time out is asking a lot.
I looked at seasonal debutants with 13 or more career starts and those without form in a Grade 1 race had a 1-20 record. Thats something CONSIGLIERE faces and considering that winner had far less weight and he starts the year on a stiff rating I think CONSIGLIERE is up against it first time out. WOOLCOMBE FOLLY is 7 coming from a Novice Chase
last season. Horses with that profile and at least 9 runs like him had a 1-3 record. These 3 horses finished W 2 3 and it makes WOOLCOMBE FOLLY a positive much as the one
winner in that came from 2m 5f and he doesnt.

NOBLE ALAN has a decent profile

* Horses aged 7
* Won a Handicap Chase last time out
* 1 or 2 runs this season
* Form in a Grade 1 race before
* Coming from 17f or shorter
* Horses with that profile had a 5-8 record
* They finished W W 4 W 2 W 2 W

Selection Noble Alan 4/1 at various inc Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365 , PaddyPower

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365 -  betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWBURY 3.05

Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.

It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he’s a decent bet

The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge’s and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last
time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.

* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.

Best current odds 7/2 bet365 s james

For all Odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-15/newbury/15-05/betting/

Best Wishes

Guy

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Posted under Major Horse Races