I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS - CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection - CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 CanBet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

A good day yesterday for the blog with a nice 5/1 winner Whicita Lineman

The main message for full members of mathematician betting also picked out 12/1 winner Go Native

and 2/1 winner Quevega

Today on the blog we have a snippet from the main message.

Fingers crossed for another winner today.

WEDNESDAY 5.15

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

5/1 Rite Of Passage, 5/1 Sicilian Secret, 7/1 Dunguib, 10/1 Quel Esprit, 10/1 Quinola Des Obeaux, 14/1 Gagewell Flyer, 14/1 Shinrock Paddy, 16/1 Cadspeed, 16/1 Meath All Star, 22/1 Henry King, Cranky Corner, 33/1 Morning Supreme, Red Harbour, Some Present,  Bygones Of Brid,
40/1 Lead The Parade,  Long Strand,  Double Dash, 50/1 Latin America, 50/1 Pepe Simo, Lightening Rod, Abroad, 100/1 Benbane Head, Fennis Boy.

The Bumper is always a nightmare and Willie Mullins is
mob handed again with 9 runners which is ridiculous. It
seems that 14 of the 24 runners at 33/1 and more are
hard to fancy and it looks like we have 11 runners at
under 33/1. Ireland have won the last 5 renewals and 7
of the last 8 as well three of which were won by Willie
Mullins so they clearly dominate.

Statistically you want a horse that has won in a big field. The last 11 winners had all done that and had all won in fields of 16-24-15-27-28-24-17-19-20-22-17 runners. I would want a horse that won it a field of at least 13 runners. Thats quite interesting as SICILIAN SECRET has won in a 7 runner field only and he is the big talking horse. I would also take out all the English runners that dont come from Grade 1 tracks. I would  be against all the English runners that ran once. All 26 horses that had previously ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Bumper lost in this race so I would rule these out as well. I would demand a horse that won last time out. I would be opposing horses that ran within the previous fortnight. I would rather not have a 4 year old. I’d oppose all horses aged 6 that had under 3 career starts. We are still left with 8 horses after going through all those angles. I would ignore horses that lost more races than they won. I’m taking
out the French Bred horses as none have yet won or placed
in the race. I would ignore all horses that are 40/1 and over on the Exchanges. This leaves a shortlist of 3 runners. I will name the shortlist but to take it any further I would have to manufacture some unsafe trend or take a wild guess but my 3  “Best profiles” are these

GAGEWELL FLYER -RITE OF PASSAGE -SHINROCK PADDY

SELECTION

RITE OF PASSAGE Each Way

Two interesting and conflicting things about this selection. Dermot Weld won a Cheltenham race in the late 1980’s. Since 1990 Weld has a 0-49 record at the Festival and that included several beaten favourites. You can argue
that a trend like that makes him a negative and it will
excite all the “Trainer Trends” punters but I dont see it
like that. This trainer is one of the best trainers in the
World. He will be more determined than ever to win a
race again here. The other interesting thing about the
trainer and his horse is this. Reading in the Irish Press
(as you do) about the race a few days ago I came accros
a storythat interested me.

Dermot Weld was at the races some weeks ago and he
went up to Willie Mullin’s Mother - and duly told her
that whatever Willie Mullins runs in the Cheltenham
Bumper he would beat him with RITE OF PASSAGE whom he fancied big time. Thats the bet for me

SELECTION - RITE OF PASSAGE EACH WAY 5/1

Blog Comment - The Odds have now dropped slightly since this was advised to full members earlier today.

Best price now 7/2 in many places PaddyPower,CanBet, Tote , Ladbrokes etc

Posted under Major Horse Races

1 Account Bet

Kempton 7.50

HIGHLAND RIVER 3/1

£100 Win

3/1 Ladbrokes - Boyles -betfred-BlueSq- Paddy P
3/1 Skybet -s james - 888sport- betdirect

CELTIC CONTRACTORS NURSERY (DIV II) (CLASS 6) (2yo,0-65) 1m

5/1 Highland River, 11/2 Artesium, Hawkspring, 7/1 Swiss Art, 8/1 Lujeanie, 9/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Impressionist Art, 16/1 Imperial Skylight, 20/1 Daily Planet, Merry May, Transfered.

* This is a Nursery race over a Mile
* There has been 55 of these races in November and December
* I want to oppose horses that come from 6f races
* In 55 races these horses have a 1-101 record
* At anytime of year there has been 143 nurseries at 8f
* Thats 143 races any time of year in class 6 and class 5
* Horses that came from 6f Nurseries were just 1-121
* That sole winner was Arcalis in 2002 at Pontefract
* He later won from a 30lbs higher mark and won a Grade 1 hurdle
* ARTESIUM is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* LUJEANIE is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* IMPERIAL SkyLIGHT is rejected coming from a 6f race
* He comes from a 6f claimer and no horse did that and won an 8f nursery
* MERRY MAY is rejected as a filly from a 6f race
* In 143 races at all times of year fillies doing this were 1-119
* HAWKSPRING comes from a 2yo selling race
* In 143 races only 6 horses came from sellers to win
* Horses that won a seller were 0-45 when running in these races
* With under 4 career starts these horses were 0-34
* HAWKSPRING has only had 2 career starts
* He will appeal to many and is well entered up this week
* I feel HAWKSPRING has a poor profile
* In the 55 races horses from 8f with under 4 runs were 1-57
* TRANSFERRED doesnt have a great profile either
* She is a filly absent 80 days
* She is also a filly that comes from a seller with 3 runs
* DAILY PLANET has just lost by 10.5 lengths over 7f
* In 143 races all year round I looked for similar types
* Horses that lost by Only 6 + lengths over 7f or shorter
* These horses were 1-113 when having 7 or more runs
* In 55 similar nurseries at this time of year
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths in Nurseries over 7f or shorter were 1-94
* DAILY PLANET fails that and looks outclassed
* IMPRESSIONIST ART is a filly with 3 runs and 80 days off
* Fillies absent 7 weeks or more won just 2 of the 143 races
* None had her weight or came from conditions races
* Fillies with under 4 runs struggled in 143 races all year round
* Only 1 managed to win with 9st 3lbs or more
* She was well beaten last time and has a poor profile
* AMAZING BLUE Sky comes from a 7f maiden after 3 runs
* He also has an unpleasant 59 day absence to overcome
* I have found 1 winner with a similar profile to him
* Overall he looks to hold no more than a small chance
* SWISS ART has a reasonable profile if he stays
* I dont have a problem with him
* HIGHLAND RIVER has a superb profile
* Horses that were 2nd in recent 8f nurseries were strong
* With 5 runs as he has they had a 2-4 record
* HIGHLAND RIVER was handicapped after 3 “quiet runs”
* His 4th start was a pretty hard task
* He was dropped from an 8f maiden to a 6f Nursery
* He ran a very creditable 2nd in a 0-60 nursery that day
* Last time out he ran in an 8f Nursery
* He had a horrible profile that day as he came from a 6f race
* All the problems with 6f runners are described above
* HIGHLAND RIVER still managed an excellent 2nd that day
* That was a competetive 14 runner race betting 9/2 the field
* I think he is light years ahead of these on his profile
* HIGHLAND RIVER is a Confident Bet

Posted under horse racing tips