Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

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Saturday Day Pass

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Newbury Racing Tip

Newbury  4.10

5/6 Unioniste, 7/2 Hadrian4s Approach
4/1 Our Father, 6/1 Same Difference
150/1 Henry Hurst.

* This is a 3m Novice Chase
* I see this as an interesting little race
* UNIONISTE upset me last time back in December
* He was a 4yo running in a Cheltenham handicap chase
* I oppose him that day for this reason
* No 4yo had ever won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase before
* I was upset when UNIONISTE broke that statistic
* He made a Mug of me so I dont underestimate him
* He will also improve at this distance today
* However he is now 5 and this is Febuary
* I looked at every 3m Novice Chase in Febuary
* Horses aged 5 had a weak 1-26 record
* The only winner was a horse called Japhet
* He started 2/9 favourite long odds on
* He only won a 3 runner race and he had Grade 1 form
* All the other 5 year olds trying this were beaten
* UNIONISTE – He cant appeal at odds on
* HENRY HURST is outclassed
* SAME DIFFERENCE has quite a lot to prove
* OUR FATHER – I suppose he has to be respected
* Funny horse who probably needs to be fresh
* I think he flopped last time as the race came too soon
* Hard to read we cant know if he will hold his form
* There seems a safer option to me

* This horse has a good profile
* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Grade1-2 Chase
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W W W W 3 F W
* Thats a 6-8 record
* The last to try won in 2010 (Burton Port)
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH is the selection

Selection

HADRIAN’S APPROACH 3/1
Quite a lot of 3/1 or more about earlier when full members got this
but now only sportingbet at those odds. You are looking at 11/4 perhaps as sportingbet who are not exactly renowed as a high stakes layer will cave in quickly no doubt.

Best Live Odds  available here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-02-09/newbury/16-10/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

Kempton Racing Tip

For private clients today I have a rare Strong Bet ( my highest grade of bet ) running in the 3.35 at a decent price.

My next grade of bet I term Options but I have none of those today.

So here on the free blog today I have a race from the lower Profiles and Preview section of my daily message.

The above may make more sense if you can see a full message.

Just drop a quick email if you want to see a few historic samples of the whole thing.

 

 

 

 

Kempton 2.05

* This is a Handicap Chase around 2m 4f
* WESSEX KING is exposed with 1 run this season
* The only winners with this profile had Grade 1-2 form
* WESSEX KING doesnt and he looks wrong
* TRIANGULAR doesnt come out too well
* Not exposed and with a testing absence
* TRIANGULAR also has a tough weight
* In his favour he was 2nd in last years race
* MIDNIGHT HAZE ran too badly too recently
* MANGER HANAGMENT shouldnt be up to this
* NICEONEFRANKIE has to be respected
* I looked at exposed 7 year olds like him
* They did all have at least 4 runs that season
* NICEONEFRANKIE has just two runs
* He has a career high mark to overcome as well
* Unexposed 7 year olds score better
* FIVE RIVERS is an unexposed 7yo
* My problem with him is very low backclass
* He’s never been out of a Class 4 race
* He has only had 2 Chase starts before as well
* FIVE RIVERS takes a big step up in class too
* CRUCHAIN – Weak stable but won this last year
* CRUCHAIN has less weight this year
* Needs respecting after his win in 2012
* BALLY LEGEND comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* I can find 2 winner likes him
* BALLY LEGEND has the best profile

Selection

Win BALLY LEGEND 11/4 generally
eg Paddy PowerCoralstan jamesbet365

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 12, 2013

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m2f110y

7/4 Long Run, 7/2 Kauto Star, 15/2 Burton Port
11/1 Synchronised, 12/1 Midnight Chase, 12/1 Weird Al
20/1 What A Friend, 33/1 Diamond Harry
40/1 Time For Rupert, 50/1 China Rock, 66/1 Carruthers
66/1 The Giant Bolster, 100/1 Knockara Beau
100/1 The Midnight Club.

The Gold Cup is always fascinating and is again this year
as well. You will no doubt have your own views about it
and may already be involved. I am going to see where a
few of my statistics lead me. It was 1969 before we last
had a winner aged 11 or more and for all his brilliance I
do oppose KAUTO STAR as a 12 year old. I dont think
its relevant what he has done at Kempton or Haydock
this season. Judge him on Gold Cup form and he failed
in 2011 and 2010 and never looked like winning either
of the last two renewals. I think something should beat
him. I would also go as far as saying he might not place
either. DIAMOND HARRY isn’t safe enough and dont
think he’s about to win a Gold Cup on this course. I’m
against BURTON POINT with just one run so far this
season. Every past winners had more. There must be a
chance he will bounce after his Newbury run and I feel
he is too riSky. He’s also a small horse that wont enjoy
this race of it gets rough in any way. I couldnt be with
him having just that one race. MIDNIGHT CHASE is
now an exposed 10 year old and whilst not a negative
horses his age have struggled recently. He doesn’t have
the right exposure and is rated a bit lower than is ideal.

P o s s i b l e s

WEIRD AL

WEIRD AL pulled up in last years race but He has been
quietly shortening in the betting this year and now 12/1
a much shorter price than you may expect. He is hard
to read. I can argue he’s lower than the minimum rating
I think you want. I can argue he did not quite do enough
on his last start but there is nothing statistically wrong
with his chance other than minor infringments. I also
think its quite interesting he has upgraded stables since
last year. He had a larynx problem that required surgery
after the Hennessy in 2001 and Bled in last years Gold
Cup. He is now with Donald McCain who has not raced
him since November. This horse is Best Fresh. The big
doubt is whether he is Man enough for the race. He was
a Boy last year. A Sickly child needing operations and
having physical problems. He was asked to do a bit too
much and wasn’t finishing races and getting distressed.

He was out of his depth and couldn’t cope. Now he has
a new trainer another year on his back and has shown
he isn’t far away from his best. Has that extra year or
new stable made him a Man Has he gone through the
process of Boy to Man or is he still weak and waiting
to crumble once tested to the maximum stress of any
Gold Cup. I dont know but he’s one of those that may
win or finish last and may be a win bet and a place lay.

S h o r t l i s t

LONG RUN

* LONG RUN – Statistically there are no problems
* Like many I haven’t been impressed with him this year
* My own view is winning this aged 6 knocked him back
* He is shortlistable and probably around the right price
* He will have to run and jump his best this year to win

WHAT A FRIEND

* Statistically I pass him as fine
* He fails 3 stats but only by the width of an Atom
* I want a 166 rating and he is 165
* I want a 1st or 2nd last time and he was 3rd
* I want a win within 6 runs and his came 7 runs ago
* I can ignore All that especially as he is 25/1 +
* I think this horse has been unfairly pidgeon holed
* He gets a lot of criticism as being ungenuine
* Many dont realise what he was up against
* I want to put the case for the defence
* WHAT A FRIEND won his first 2 chases in 2009
* Nothing wrong at all with that
* He was then hammered in the Sun Alliance
* When he flopped in the Sun Alliance I expected it
* Big negative that day with only 2 Chase starts
* We opposed him and he had the wrong preparation
* He won next time at Stratford
* First time out 2009-2010 he was 2nd in the Hennessy
* Second in Denmans Hennessy was a creditable effort
* WHAT A FRIEND won a Grade 1 next time
* He then went and won another Grade 1 after that
* He was beaten then at Haydock in November 2010
* That was first time out so hardly worth damming him
* He was odds on in the 2001 Aon Chase
* People criticised him but he did come second
* That day he had just 1 run that year and a long break
* I had him as a negative in that race and not safe
* His 2011 Gold Cup run was very good
* He was only beaten 11 lengths by Long run
* Ignore his run in the 2011 Grand National
* He didnt stay and he was technically still a 7yo
* None have won in decades and that was no shame
* This year he had a reasonable prep race at Newbury
* That will set him up with a chance in this race
* Whenever this horse has lost he has been criticised
* Almost every time he has there was a genuine excuse.
* WHAT A FRIEND should be half his price

SYNCHRONISED

I said in the January 21st message that my early choice
for the Gold Cup was SYNCHRONISED and nothing has
changed my mind. I see Pricewise have tipped him so it
may be a point shorter than expected but this horse has
a massive chance. His 2011 Welsh National win was so
impressive statistically he looked at Gold Cup horse at
that point. His Lexus chase win may have been a slow
time but thast wasn’t his fault as he oozed class. I have
never felt he was ground dependant and its clear he has
been trained like a Gold Cup winner and not overfaced
in unneccesary races and I get the impression his yard
have known for a while he could be up to this class.

SELECTION

LONG RUN 2/1
WHAT A FRIEND 25/1
SYNCHRONISED  10/1

I think one of these will win. LONG RUN is clearly the
most likely winner but he’s short and with 3 shortlisted
staking becomes a problem. There is a market which is
“without the two favourites” Long Run and Kauto Star
and I was tempted by WHAT A FRIEND each way in
that market around 10/1. Thats tempting and I have a
small bet on that myself but for several weeks now I’ve
been very keen on SYNCHRONISED and he is my bet.

SYNCHRONISED 10/1

Nb blog comment:  10/1 now gone but was about earlier when full members got this.

9/1 available at Ladbrokess jamesbet365

 

PS Chelt Deal offer available for the rest of this week

see http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

 

 

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Scottish Grand National

This not the race I am directing paying clients to bet in today.

It is however the race most asked about  in my inbox.

Here are my stats and quick thoughts.

 

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

18/1 ish available on Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips