I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

 
CHELTENHAM  5.15
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
(HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y
 6/1 Poquelin, 8/1 French Opera, 10/1 Clew Bay Cove, 10/1 My Petra,
10/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Pasco, 10/1 Tiger Cry, 14/1 I’m So Lucky,
14/1 Lorient Express, 14/1 Perce Rock, 20/1 Andreas, 20/1 Valain,
25/1 Calatagan, 25/1 Psychomodo, 33/1 Central House, 33/1 Moon
Over Miami, 40/1 Beggars Cap, 40/1 Palarshan, 40/1 Tramantano, 66/1 Jigsaw
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* Its been a long time since an exposed horse won this
* ANDREAS is exposed and has 11st 12lbs
* PALARSHAN is an 11 year old
* Only 7 horses aged 11 won handicaps at the festival
* None had 10st 6lbs or less (0-61)
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He looks way out of his depth
* BEGGARS CAP didnt do enough last time
* He looks outclassed in this
* CALATAGAN  is out aged 10 from hurdles
* No horse that age came from hurdles
* In this race horses from Hurdles were poor
* Those like him down in trip from hurdles were 0-50
* No exposed horse won any festival handicap with 11st 12lbs
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* JIGSAW DANCER was just hammered in a Novice Chase
* MOON OVER MIAMI also has that problem
* CENTRAL HOUSE looks too old
* TIGER CRY is a 11 year old absent 61 days
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse aged 11 or more won with a months absnece
* All 60 that tried lost
* With 2 runs since last April he may not be fit
* TIGER CRY looks opposable to me
* TIGER CRY did win this last year
* He had a far better profile though and was fitter
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* POQUELIN is a 6 year old absent 111 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* POQUELIN fails both those trends
* POQUELIN was also beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* FRENCH OPERA fails the same angles
* He was beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* We know no Festival Handicap went to a horse doing that
* He is also absent 7 weeks or more
* Horses like him aged under 8 doing that were 0-43
* No horse like him from a Novice race defied that absence
* FRENCH OPERA looks opposable to me
* OH CRICK was also beaten in a Novice last time
* Again no horse won a Festival handicap doing that
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* MY PETRA is a 6 year old absent 71 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* MY PETRA fails that and is rejeceted
* Every past winner ran in Graded Class before
* LORIENT EXPRESS has not done that
* He has had 36 races - Aged 10 - yet no Graded Class
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the Festival
* Horses aged 10+ with no past Graded form were 0-59
* That suggests to me LORIENT EXPRESS may lack class
POSSIBLES
* PSYCHOMODO isnt too bad statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles
* I dont personally think he will have the class
* He is not a 40/1 chance and is respected
* PERCE ROCK unseated his rider yesterday
* He would not have won and that was over 2m 5f
* I think trip and ground may catch him out
* He is certainly unsafe and has an outside chance
* PASCO is quite interesting as a Novice winner
* I would have prefered a little more than 3 chase runs
* The 2000 winner Samakaan managed it though
* Statistically he is shortlistable but there are worries
* His trainer has argued he wants softer ground
* He has also argued he may not like the track
* Ruby Walsh has also rejected him for Poquelin
* I find it hard to go with him because of that
* VALAIN is very hard to assess properly
* Not sure how relevant running on the flat recently is
* JP McManus owns him and CLEW BAY COVE
* Mc Coy rides CLEW BAY COVE
* I suspect thats because he cant do 10st 1lbs
* McCoy hasnt ridden below 10st 4lbs in the last year
* VALAIN may well be the stable preference
* It would trouble me he ran on the flat
* If he was fancied to win and prepared to perfection
* Why would he run on the flat just 2 weeks before
* As it was his first run since September it may be fitness
* Connections may have felt he wasnt fit
* That may be a rushed prearation
* VALAIN is a big price and that does help with worries
* Respect and Shortlist him but dont select him
* CLEW BAY COVE looks a bit exposed to me
* There has been winners like him but some time ago
* He has had 14 Handicap Chase runs so has no secrets
* You can also argue he may want softer ground
* I am not convinced about him to be honest
* TRAMANTANO looks unfancied at 40/1
* He was beaten 16 lengths in this race last year
* I tipped him in last years race at 25/1
* One or two early mistakes hurt his chance last year
* He is much Fresher this year and he needs that
* This horse is always best after an absence
* With 1 run since November he will be fresh enough
* He loves the track and I am betting him again
I’M SO LUCKY
* I’M SO LUCKY has a very smart profile
* I Looked at horses that had this profile like him
* Coming from a 2m Handicap chase in Class 2
* At least 9 runs and at least 3 that year
* Run within 7 weeks
* Starting 20/1 or shorter
* Has ran in Graded Class before
* Has won in their last 6 races
* Carrying less than 11st
* I’M SO LUCKY has that profile
* SO did 6 other horses that ran in this race before
* Those 6 horses had the following record
* W  W  W  2  3  5
* I’M SO LUCKY will love the drying ground
* He ran very well last time on ground too soft
* His previous race he was beaten by Planet Of Sound
* That horse was 3rd in Tuesdays Grade 1 Arkle
* I’M SO LUCKY had to give him 10lbs that day
* We now know that was an impossible task
* He won his previous 2 races easily
* Statistically he is strong as a lightly raced chaser
* He isnt over exposed in handicaps
* My only worry is will he handle the track
* He has a lot of flat track form
* Its a serious worry and I dont know the answer to it
Two Bets for me in this race
TRAMANTANO Each Way Bet at 40/1
I’M SO LUCKY Win Bet at 20/1

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM TUESDAY 2.40

William Hill TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

6/1 Wichita Lineman, 8/1 Possol, 10/1 Millenium Royal, 10/1 Patsy Hall, 10/1 Star De Mohaison, 11/1 Cailin Alainn, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 16/1 Maljimar, 16/1 Nenuphar Collonges, 20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 Golden Flight,  Simon, 20/1 Tot O’ Whiskey, 25/1 Wind Instrument, 33/1 Comply Or Die, 33/1 Hobbs Hill, 33/1 Lacdoudal, 33/1 Oedipe, 33/1 Reveillez, 33/1 The Sawyer, 40/1 Ollie Magern, Hot Weld, 66/1 Billyvoddan, Fundamentalist.

The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase. The
worst news for me was According To John missing it as
I had him lined up as an account bet. There are trends in
this race I see as relevant. I want to oppose  all exposed
horses that have just one run this season. None won this
race and in fact no exposed horse won a handicap chase
at the Cheltenham Festival with just one run that season
anytime in the last few years. Thats an interesting stat as
none were second either and I see thse horses as unlikely
to be fit enough to win. No past winners of this race had
one run that season either regardless of how exposed they
were. LOTHIAN FALCON has to be opposed because of
that. So to does HOT WELD. It is not time effective to
write essays about what trends horses at 50/1 and over

fail so I will just say that I cant see a case for any of the rank outsiders in this race and I am eliminating them all from consideration. GOLDEN FLIGHT is out with two
seasons absence as he’s also exposed. There’s not enough
about SIMON I like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I want to take on STAR DE MOHAISON with 11st 12lbs.
There’s been 65 handicap chases at the festival in recent
years over every and any distance and only 3 winners had
11st 8lbs or more in a weak 3-125 record. Of those all 56
horses that came from Graded races lost and that doesn’t
bode well for  STAR DE MOHAISON. I have looked at
every English horse that has run in a Handicap Chase at
this Festival. There has not been one race that went to a
horse with only 1 run that season when having a break of
over a month. Because of that I am against MALJIMAR
with 1 run this season and a 115 day break. I dont have
a huge problem statistically with DEAR VILLEZ but his
weight and a few other small issues put me off him.

My problem with CAILIN ALAINN is that he has 2 runs
at Cheltenham and Fell both times much as they were in
top class races. He only has 1 past run in a competetive
handicap and he pulled up in that and none of the past
winners came here from any Graded Chase that wasnt a
handicap.

NOVICE CHASERS

Horses that come from Novice Chases are always interesting
much as only one past winner did that. There are a few here
that do that. One statistic that interested me is that since 1992 Cheltenham has had 69 Handicap Chases run at this festival. In these 69 races no horse got beaten in a Novice Chase and came out and won a handicap chase. There has only been one Handicap Hurdle at this festival go to a horse beaten in a Novice Hurdle as well which supports the stat a little bit. I dont want a horse beaten in a Novice Chase so I am ignoring  WIND INSTRUMENT who doesnt look the
type equipped with the tools you would want for a race like this. TOT O´WHISKEY also fails that and its a shame as I gave TOT O´WHISKEY a chance off his low weight and I
feel he will run very well and place in the race. I dont want to make him my selection because of that trends but I am happy to make him my selection. MILLENIUM ROYAL
also comes from a Novice with just 5 chase starts but he
won that chase so is fine. He has no handicap experience
and although I am relaxed about that he has to do all that
carrying a weight no horse has carried in years. I also feel MILLENIUM ROYAL may have problems on the track.
He has not run here over fences but his hurdle runs were
below par and I dont see him as a Cheltenham horse. The
other Novice Chaser is WICHITA LINEMAN. He won a Novice Chase last time so passes the trend. The problem he has is that he has just 3 chase starts. You can argue its very inexperienced for a race like this and it is but he is
also well handicapped today and faces a weak renewal for
me. I think you have to shortlist him as there is a general
weakness throughout this whole field

SHORTLIST

POSSOL 9/1
NENUPHAR COLLONGES 20/1
WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1

POSSOL is trying to emulate Antonin who was the last 6 year
old winner and who like POSSOL came from the Racing Post
Chase at Kempton. POSSOL doesnt have the experience that
Antonin has but he has more chase runs than a lot of  the past winners and he is not out of this. Soft ground wouldnt be ideal though but I dont think its that soft today and his chance will be about whether he as a six year old can recover quickly enough from the Racing Post Chase just 17 days ago. I would rather not have a 6 year old but I have looked at all 6 year olds to win here
in handicap chases and he is a similar type to these.

NENUPHAR COLLONGES looks to have a lot to like about him
and he isnt to dissimilar from the 2005 winner but I would have prefered Cheltenham form.

PATSY HALL has to be a big runner as he was 4th in this race last year and is now significantly lower in the weights and also has the benefit of two extra prep runs and you can be sure he hasnt been fancied yet this season. He is a bit of an Underachiever but I feel he has enough to get him on the shortlist

SELECTION

WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1 - Win Bet  ( NOW BEST PRICED AT 13/2 CentreBet
TOT O’WHISKEY - Place Bet around 5/1 ( GO TO Betfair )

I could look at this race for weeks but I would never have found a better profile than According To John but he has missed the race now and there is nothing we can do about that. I want a place bet in the race on TOT O’WHISKEY as I feel off 10st 3lbs I couldnt name 4 horses to beat him and feel he may nick a place at 5/1

WICHITA LINEMAN is my selection. I am worried about his
3 chase runs but several have been lightly raced before winning this and his handicap mark sways me. He is a festival winner and a high class hurdler rated 156 and off 142 I feel he can win this off 142. If you assume I am right about the Topweight and also right about Millenium Royal - and if you take out the no hopers in the race this is only a 0-146 handicap chase and far weaker than usual. I know the horse doesnt impress everyone and many will see him as a bad favourite today with 3 runs but I dont see
this as as competetive as it usually is and I think he can win.

Posted under Major Horse Races

My Hennessy conclusion is that the bet is both a win bet on ALBERTAS RUN and a saver on BIG BUCKS but like  many I’m worried about the ground for ALBERTAS RUN. Midweek I was confident he would win this race but many little things have conspired against him and my confidence has drained a little away from him. I have backed him at a shorter price than he is now and the potential for me to have the race wrong now is a strong possibility.

I hope he wins but I cant pretend I am as bullish as I was 48 hours ago.

This is certainly not Account Bet strength but I hope you enjoy the analysis and find it an aid if trying to unravel the Hennessey yourself.
**********************************************

NEWBURY 2:40

HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 3  (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Forecast Prices
6/1 Air Force One,  Big Buck´s, 15/2 Island Flyer, 8/1 Albertas Run, 11/1 Oedipe, 14/1 Slim Pickings, 16/1 Dear Villez,  High Chimes,  Royal County Star, 20/1 Snoopy Loopy,  Verasi, 25/1 Knowhere, 50/1 Always Waining,  Madison Du Berlais,  Monkerhostin,  My Will.

For Current Live Odds Click Here

SELECTION- ALBERTAS RUN

SAVER - BIG BUCKS

This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers.  If  you look at the last 15 years of the Hennessy Gold Cup it has been dominated by horses that had between 6 and 20 races before. We haven’t had a winner that had under 5 starts. On the other end of the scale Horses that had More than 20 Career races had a disastrous 0-59 record in this race. All 59 got beaten and not that Many were Placed. You don’t want a seasoned handicapper who has limited potential and whose form is clearly an open book and who has had ample time to be accurately assessed by the Handicapper. These types end up giving weight to horses that have far more scope and Improvement and horses that are very well handicapped. The following tables show how many runs the recent past winners have had and how many handicap runs they have had as well.

* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy

10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16

* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate the Hennessy

0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8

* Finishing 1st-2nd or 3rd last time is important

Recent form seems important. You must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. I have looked at every winner of this going back to 1987 and every one of those winners managed a 1-2-3 Placing last time out. Such is the test of this Class race that we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time assuming they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy or the jumping prowess. Since 1987 there have been well over 100 Horses that failed to finish placed or better on their latest start. None of these 100 + runners won.

I don’t want VERASI. I do like the horse. I had him as a saver in last years Sun Alliance at 25/1 so its nothing personal. You can argue that he is over exposed for a race like this but he has only had 6 chase starts so that’s harsh. He fails the statistic that demands a 1-2-3 finish last time out but the one factor I really do not forgive him for is his flat form. This is a Flat bred horse that started his career on the flat. You can go back decades and you wont find any Hennessy winner starting his career on the flat in England.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR  looks all wrong. We haven’t had a winner warm up over hurdles. The run he had wasn’t good enough anyway. He did not achieve enough last time. His handicap mark looks stiff and he doesn’t have half the improvement of most of these.

I don’t want KNOWWHERE with top weight. That’s a tall order. The two recent Top weight winners Denman and Trablogan were both Sun Alliance winners and KNOWWHERE looks exposed.  He was well beaten in last years race with 10lbs less weight. He has a career high mark and having ran in 12 handicap chase’s is not the profile of a Hennessy winner.

SNOOPY LOOPY is also exposed and has had far more handicap runs than ideal. He was a huge price for this race before he won last week in Kauto Star’s race at 33/1. There must be a huge doubt he can reproduce his best just 7 days later. I have to take him on.

SLIM PICKINGS isn’t for me. I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2 mile race which is not a good thing or a successful thing in this race. I think he looks exposed. Is a horse that has lost his last 14 races likely to win a Hennessy. I don’t think so.

HIGH CHIMES is a seasonal debutant. Several recent winners were making their debuts that season but they were younger. HIGH CHIMES is a 9 year old. If you look at the last 17 Hennessy’s and look at seasonal debutants aged 8 or more you find a 0-42 record. That’s a worry for him. So to is his handicap mark as he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last March off 127 and has to run from 141 today. There hasn’t been a similar winner of the Hennessy in recent memory so I would not see HIGH CHIMES as my selection in this years race.

DEAR VILLEZ can’t be discounted but he isn’t for me. He won well last time in Ireland and passes most trends in this race. He is clearly Paul Nicholls’s second string. I wonder if he has the class. After all go back to last years Cheltenham festival.  DEAR VILLEZ ran and fell in the Jewson Novice Handicap. Compare that with ALBERTAS RUN and AIR FORCE ONE and others that were running in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase and only have to concede a couple of lbs to him. I just don’t see him as good enough.

I don’t want to go with OEDIPE. He is a 6yo seasonal debutant. I haven’t got a big problem with that at all as State of Play (2006) was one. However if you look at the seasonal debutants that have won this race - they had all ran in better class than he has. They were all more experienced. They all ran far better than he did last time and none of them stepped up as far in trip. OEDIPE is a notorious poor work horse so he is has hardly been galloping the house down. He is also a French Bred and there hasn’t been many of those win the race. I think he is out of his depth and I worry his trainer says he is a “hard horse to get fit”.

ISLAND FLYER

One the face of it this horse has a strong profile and comes from a decent trial race and its easy to understand why there has been lots of ante post money for him this week. That said the value has probably gone now. The one trends worry I have with him is his class. ISLAND FLYER  is rated 132 and that would make him the lowest rated winner in at least 20 years. Every winner since the 1980’s was rated 135 or more and its just in the back of my mind that off bottom weight in the last two furlongs he could just be fighting to get home in this class on soft ground and his low rating worries me. After all 9 months ago as he was winning a cheap novice chase others were running and winning Sun Alliances and his flaw could be whether he has the class to win.

AIR FORCE ONE

This horse must have a great chance. Statistically he is not unlike One Man who won this in 1994 and both came from the Sun Alliance and AIR FORCE ONE achieved more in that race and had more experience. Both were 6 year olds with 1 handicap run and one run that season. One Man (1994) won with 10st though and AIR FORCE ONE has a much bigger weight to carry. Recent Hennessy’s have shown high weights are fine in this race and AIR FORCE ONE has a strong overall profile. There are two issues to consider. One may be the general theory that he may be best on right handed tracks. The other is whether he wants soft ground. In terms of the Left Handed Track I don’t think there is enough evidence to suggest that. He has ran 5 times on left handed tracks. Even if you ignore his win at Fontwell when odds on in a Figure 8 track you cant draw any conclusions. His other races were 2-5-5-6 on left handed tracks. One of the times he was 50/1. Another was his chasing debut pitched into a Grade 2 chase. He was well beaten in the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham but his 2nd was also there in the Spa Hurdle at the festival and there is nothing wrong with that. The track wouldn’t be a major concern for me as the evidence is not compelling. In terms of the ground you would worry if it was soft. His connections have given excuses before for defeats blaming soft and dead ground. There has to be a slight stamina doubt on the ground as well so he isn’t bomb proof. I also don’t like the fact he has run on the Flat before albeit in Germany as very few Hennessy winners started racing on the flat. I see him and BIG BUCKS as the main contenders for the “saver” but much as I greatly respect  his chance I prefer others marginally.

BIG BUCKS

Initially I felt that the favourite was worth opposing as a 5 year old but I would not be too dogmatic about that now. I have had a big rethink about 5 year olds as they have won similar other races at this time of year. BIG BUCKS is a 5 year old. The Hennessy was first run in 1957 and the 51 renewals of the race have never thrown  up a 5 year old winner. That must be considered a  problem for BIG BUCKS but not many have tried - just 4 in the last two decades and hardly any of the 5 year olds that have run have been fancied and they have had a 3rd with Eudipe in 1997. I couldn’t make him a negative on the back of a statistic that’s admittedly worrying but more importantly not proven. I think trip and ground demand he is a saver

SELECTION

ALBERTAS RUN

I really fancy this horse. He is trying to be the 3rd Sun Alliance Chase winner to win this race in the last 4 seasons after Denman and Trablogan did the double. On his profile he is Similar to Kings Road the 2000 winner in that they both ran in the Cheltenham Bumper early in their career and then the Sun Alliance. He is an even closer type to 2005 winner Trablogan who was also owned by Trevor Hemmings as ALBERTAS RUN is. Trablogan (2005) also ran in the Champion Bumper and won the Sun Alliance as well and ALBERTAS RUN attempts to do the same. He is the right age and a second season chaser. Statistically the only trend he fails was that he wasn’t 1-2-3 last time out. He was 4th of 4 on his seasonal debut but I can forgive him that. He probably was not trained for that race. The trip was too short and he met a top class horse. He was clearly unfit and that was the same Carlisle chase that his trainer ran Exotic Dancer a couple of years ago and he flopped that running a lifeless race before winning the Paddy Power Gold cup next time out. ALBERTAS run holds two wins over Air Force One and has a touch of class as a Sun Alliance Chase winner. His owner will want to win this race again and I think ALBERTAS RUN is good value to win the race. His chance will come down to the ground. If its not too soft he will win for me and if it is it lets in Big Bucks the saver.

Regards

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Posted under Major Horse Races

A small snippet from my main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is below

Saturday November 15th

No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Cheltenham 2.00

JOE LIVELY

Each Way 6/1
blog comment: was 6/1 earlier in the day when advised to full members

best bookmaker price now 5/1in many places eg PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, betdirect, bet365

**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 2:00

SERVO SERVICES HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m3f110y

7/2 Opera Mundi, 5/1 Halcon Genelardais, 6/1 Joe Lively, 13/2 Parsons Legacy, 8/1 Beat The Boys,  Karanja, 10/1 Comply Or Die, 12/1 Simon, 14/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Dom D´Orgeval, 100/1 Sweet Diversion.

SELECTION - JOE LIVELY Each Way

This is a complicated long distance Handicap Chase over 3m 3f. Its pretty hard to read as you do not know which horses are about to have prep races like the Welsh National and don’t want penalties or weight rises. I can not have KARANJA with only 2 chase runs and he looks inexperienced as does DOM D’OGEVAL with just 6 runs. I
dont want SWEET DIVERSION as she is out of the weights. This race has never gone to a horse from a Novice Chase so BEAT THE BOYS has to go. COMPLY OR DIE the Grand National winner pulled up in this race last year with far less weight and I would imagine that winning the National and the 15lbs rise that cost him will stop him winning and
many National winners struggle to win in their next season. I can see why PARSONS LEGACY is favourite after winning well on his seasonal debut. However you can argue he is better on faster ground and that he is best fresh and a career high mark today will take some overcoming. The
2007 winner came from the Scottish Grand National just as FLINTOFF, OPERA MUNDI and HALCON GENELARDAIS all do. I dont want HALCON GENELARDAIS as he is having his first run of the year and has topweight. This could be a prep run for the Welsh National. He is on a career high mark. The only seasonal debutant that defied a big weight in this race was in 1999 (Hanakham) and he only won in a 5 runner race and was a Sun Alliance Chase winner and HALCON GENELARDAIS wouldnt be my choice today. FLINTOFF looks weak in the market and may need his seasnal debut this year.  OPERA MUNDI has big chances and has to be shortlisted. JOE LIVELY has a great chance after a strong
seasonal debut run. So to does SIMON who was 5th in this race last year. I opposed SIMON last year as he is a small horse and I wasnt convinced he would get round. He did though and came 5th on ground that was too fast for him. This year he has better ground. He also has 10lbs less weight. Whilst there is always the chance SIMON smacks one of these fences he has ran very well here in his 3 Cheltenham stats and he isnt out of this. If I was shortlisting in this race I would shortlist the following 3 horses

JOE LIVELY - OPERA MUNDI - SIMON

I had strong reasons why OPERA MUNDI lost his last two races last season and dnt worry about those runs and I do like the fact that 6 year olds have a good record in the race. Wouldnt surprise me if he won but I would have to question his stamina over 27.5 furlongs. He is a french bred and his sire has not sired a 3m + winner yet and he has not proven his stamina yet. With SIMON lacking a run this year I do think the best bet in this race has to be JOE LIVELY each way.

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