Today its Kauto Star v Denman. In all likelyhood
Kauto Star will probably win the race but I would
argue that the statistical arguments suggest that
a better bet is Imperial Commander and Cooldine.
You oppose Kauto Star at your peril but although
it’s not a race I would want an account bet in and
will enjoy the race without being heavily involved
it wouldnt surprise me if Imperial Commander won
and I am going to have an interest bet on him.

It is the Grand Annual that interests me most and
it’s this race I’ve earmarked for our final bet of the
meeting. TARTAK does have statistical problems.
He is not a horse that flies through my angles but
that does not worry me. Nothing else does anyway.
His chance will be determined by whether he will be
as effective at this 2m trip and I think he will. This
is wide open. It is not a vintage renewal. There are
no obvious plot horses this year. The weight stat
in the race has never been more vulnerable. I see
him as a controversial choice. You will struggle to
find anyone tip him today and he is the forgotten
horse of the race. I do think he is worth betting.

CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1)
(5yo+)2m110y

8/1 You´re The Top, 9/1 Free World, 10/1 French Opera
10/1 Oiseau De Nuit, 10/1 Tataniano 14/1 Beggars Cap
16/1 Consigliere, 16/1 Cornas, 16/1 Fighting Chance 16/1
Safari Journey, 16/1 Tartak, 20/1 Pepsyrock, Nomecheki
33/1 Lennon, 33/1 Lord Henry, 33/1 Moon Over Miami
33/1 Russian Flag , Calatagan, 40/1 Nikola, Pigeon Island
40/1 Tramantano.

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* TRAMANTANO’s chance may have gone now
* I backed him e/w at 40/1 in last years race
* He placed Gallantly but never looked like winning
* He goes well fresh but I dont want a 11yo
* Not absent as long as him and he is rejected
* CALATAGAN is too old for me
* Especially coming down 5f in distance
* PIGEON ISLAND doesnt look good enough
* NIKOLA is exposed with just 2 runs this year
* No exposed horse did that and his absence hurts him
* LORD HENRY also has two runs this season
* Not enough for an exposed 11 year old
* Exposed horses dont score well
* I wouldnt bet one without serious backclass
* RUSSIAN FLAG doesnt have that
* Thats not a good sign statistically
* MOON OVER MIAMI is too exposed over fences
* He didnt achieve enough in recent races
* LENNON looks vulnerable to me
* Especially as an exposed 10yo with 2 runs this year

* SAFARI JOURNEY has been absent 96 days
* No English horse had an absence of more than 7 weeks
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None won when absent over a month
* SAFARI JOURNEY shouldnt be the first
* Horses absent 7 + weeks struggled in this race
* Those aged 6-7-8 were 0-50
* SAFARI JOURNEY fails that and has to go

* PEPSYROCK fails a lot of statistics
* He looks overexposed in Chases with 17 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs
* I think he is short of runs this season
* He didnt run well enough last time either
* Overall I thought he had a poor profile

* NOMECHEKI has a lot to do down from 2m 5f
* Especially with just 3 Chase runs
* Thats very inexperienced and a worry
* Having no Graded form doesnt help
* I am comfortable about opposing him

* FREE WORLD is a 6 year old
* There were 2 winners aged 6
* They both had 4 + runs this year and he has 3
* They both ran within a month
* He hasnt run in 44 days
* Not brilliant trends but he does fail both
* He would have been better with 1 more run recently
* However there are 6yo stats in all chases here
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* None had the weight he does either
* FREE WORLD has 11st 11lbs and thats a big weight
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* You have to ask yourself about 6 year olds
* As none have won with his absence or with 1-2-3 runs
* Thats in any Festival Handicap Chase
* Is it likely  FREE WORLD will be the first with 11st 11lbs

* TATANIANO is also a 6 year old
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* TATANIANO only has 3 runs
* None won when absent over a month
* TATANIANO has been absent 49 days
* That makes him weak statistically for me
* He also has 11st 2lbs and weight is an issue here
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* TATANIANO also has just 3 Chase runs
* The last few winners had 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Considering he is down from 19f it could be a problem
* There are too many problems with his profile
* TATANIANO wouldnt be my choice

* YOU´RE THE TOP is a 6 year old
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Horses aged 6 from Novice Chases were 1-15
* Last years winner (Oh Crick) did it
* That said last years winner had 6 Chase runs
* YOU´RE THE TOP only has 3
* He also had 1 run extra this season
* He also had form in Listed Class before
* YOU´RE THE TOP hasnt had that backclass
* He also had 11lbs less weight
* I think YOU´RE THE TOP has a tough task here
* He has no form in Listed or Graded Class
* Every past winner had that
* He only has 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 of the last 10 winners had 3 Chase starts
* That winner had Grade 1 form over hurdles
* I dont see a great profile there

* FRENCH OPERA has 11st 12lbs to carry
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* He was a well beaten 4th place
* That weight wont be easy to overcome
* Not with a 97 day absence as well
* English horses in this race absent 7 weeks are 0-58
* He is ridden by an Apprentice as well
* Apprentice riders are 0-32 in this race
* FRENCH OPERA has only 3 runs this year
* I looked at every handicap chase run at the festival
* I looked at horses with 1-2-3 runs that season
* I looked at those absent 7 weeks or more
* None carried the weight he does and that worries me
* I couldnt bet him with that weight and absence

* CORNAS comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Horses doing that score badly in all handicap chase’s
* He has a troublesome weight with 11st 8lbs
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* CORNAS also has to overcome a 55 day absence
* No English horse managed that in this race
* I think his weight and absence will beat him
* He certainly isnt typical of what’s been winning this
* For whatever reason horses from Grade 1 chases struggle

* OISEAU DE NUIT is exposed with 23 career starts
* Yet he has never run in Listed or Graded horse before
* That worries me a lot
* The last 16 winners all ran in Listed or Graded class
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 2 winners were exposed with no Graded class
* Neither were like OISEAU DE NUIT
* He looks far too exposed in Handicap Chases
* He has more weight than many past winners
* I wasnt convinced he was the right type

* BEGGARS CAP doesnt really impress me
* He is a little exposed having his 12th handicap start
* He is a little exposed over fences with 15 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Overall I dont have huge problems with him
* His last run beaten miles doesnt help his profile
* 35 of the last 39 winners placed in their previous chase
* He doesnt and I see him as a bit on the unsafe side

P O S S I B L E S

* CONSIGLIERE comes from a hurdle race
* I dont have a big problem with that
* I think he is a bit exposed in handicap chases
* I think he could do with a few lbs less weight
* Neither problem would be a dealbreaker though
* He has no form higher than in a class 2 race though
* The last 16 winners all ran in better grade
* That makes him look weaker statistically
* I dont like his mark of 145 much
* There could also be an issue with the big field
* Overall I would make him a “Possible”
* Thats being Generous though based on his profile

* FIGHTING CHANCE has never in in Class 2 or higher
* Every past winner had ran in 2 Grades higher
* That has to be a big worry for a 10 year old
* We have had 3 winners aged 10 like him
* None of these came from a 2m chase
* They all had form in Graded races
* I wouldnt rule him out despite that
* He isnt exposed at all and is on a roll
* He has won his last 3 Handicap Chases
* Up in class and up in weight wont be easy at all
* He has a low weight though and he could improve
* FIGHTING CHANCE would be a “Possible” for me

SELECTION

TARTAK 16/1 bet365 VC will hill

( if you are betting ew bet365 offer 5 places )

* TARTAK has had 12 Chase starts
* It’s a little more than ideal but workable
* He has 11st 6lbs and thats a tough weight in this
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* He does have Grade 1 form though
* I quite liked the rest of his profile
* Much will depend on whether he is a 2 miler
* Since the 2009 Arkle has has ran at 2m 4f and more
* This may well be his best distance

TARTAK started 10/1 in last years Arkle. He ran very
well after being hampered in a rough race and jumped
the last only 2 lengths down against Grade 1 horses.
He then went and won at Aintree over 2m 4f and that
may have formed an imprint with some that TARTAK
needs further than 2 Miles. That could be a mistake.

* His form suggests he likes Flat Tracks
* I disagree with that myself
* How can you Pigeon hole a horse after a few runs
* I watched last years Arkle and he ran well
* That tells me he will have no problem here
* His other 2 races here were when he didnt stay
* Tom George is on record saying this
* I think he has run very well here before

This year he has run 5 times. I think you can excuse his
seasonal debut when he didnt jump well and was well
beaten. That was a Grade 2 handicap and he was only a
novice but it says a lot that he was made favourite. He
was then well beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but
he was statistically dead in the water that day anyway
and if you watch the video he ran better than it looked
and was only beaten half a mile out when it looked like
he did not stay. TARTAK then placed at Huntingdon in
the Peterborough Chase. Nothing wrong with that run.
Look who was behind him. Albertas Run and Tidal Bay.
He may well have won that without slipping up.

His 4th race was in Kauto Star’s King George over 3m
and there is no surprise that he didnt stay 3 Miles. Its
interesting he was no bigger price that day than many
Grade 1 horses and I watched that and felt he ran with
plenty of credit but clearly didnt get home.

Last time out he dropped down to todays trip of 2 miles.
It was asking a lot for him to come down from 3m to 2m.
He didnt run badly in 5th place against a few runners in
this race. That race doesnt put me off. He needed a run
and had a harder task than it looked that day. After the
race Tom George hinted the horse wasnt well ridden and
strongly hinted that 2 miles was probably the right trip.

TARTAK now gets the chance to prove that. He has to
carry more weight than most previous winners and that
is a worry but I will forgive him that. He has Grade 1 form
and run in some serious races and its a matter of time to
wait before we get a winner again with 11st or more. He
doesnt pass all my angles in the race and there are some
question marks for him. I just think he is worth the risk.
He has some serious form behind him. I am taking the
view that this 2m suits him much better.  He will race in
the first half dozen today and I think he has the ability
to win this race.  Its not a vintage race. There has been
no Plot horses or throw in lightweights. Every horse is
9/1 and more. There is nothing special in this race and
With a stable in hot form I see him as very interesting.

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Posted under Major Horse Races

I have full analysis for most Cheltenham races today for full members

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One race today for the free blog.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

5/1 Bensalem, 11/2 The Package, 10/1 Character Building
10/1 Theatrical Moment, 12/1 Exmoor Ranger, 12/1 Ogee
14/1 The Tother One, 16/1 Casey Jones, 16/1 Niche Market
16/1 Razor Royale, 20/1 Kicks For Free, 20/1 Nenuphar Collonges
25/1 New Alco, 25/1 Officier De Reserve, 28/1 Chief Dan George 33/1
Beat The Boys, 33/1 Joe Lively, 33/1 Offshore Account 33/1 Tatenen,
50/1 Comply Or Die, 50/1 Knowhere 66/1 Bible Lord, 66/1 Stan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The ante post chatter in this race has been dominated by
two seemingly well handicapped horses in BENSALEM
and THE PACKAGE dominating the front of the market.

* THE PACKAGE has been saved for this race
* He has not run for 95 days to protect his handicap mark
* Personally I am happy to accept he is well handicapped
* I dont think its as obvious as many think though
* The issue for me is will he defy an absence of 95 days
* Statistically I would have to say no for these reasons
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance - hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those like THE PACKAGE with 13 + runs
* There were 8 winners that did that
* None were aged 6 or 7 as THE PACKAGE is
* What I did find was the 8 winners had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* 7 of the 8 winners had Grade 1 form and all 8 had Grade 1-2
* THE PACKAGE has not got that
* Therefore no horse like him won a handicap with that break
* None with 13 + runs won absent 80 + days
* Not without a run in Grade 2 or better and he doesnt
* Thats what puts me off THE PACKAGE in this race

* BENSALEM is light on experience with 4 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those but last years winner did 3 chase runs
* I think you can overlook that because of last years winner
* That said last years winner had the ride of the season
* He looked easily beaten before a brilliant ride won it
* I dont mind that he has no handicap form
* His Jumping is the main problem though
* He makes several mistakes and isnt a fluent jumper
* He has never run in a Chase with more than 5 runners either
* BENSALEM has not raced on ground as fast as this
* His chance depends on how well he jumps
* Especially in a big field on ground thats not very soft
* I see risks in THE PACKAGE and BENSALEM
* I think I would rather bet BENSALEM of the pair
* I see BENSALEM as a Saver bet

* NICHE MARKET is pretty exposed with 17 chase starts
* That would worry me about a horse with 11st 6lbs
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He isnt like any past winner that had a large weight
* He comes from a Grade 2 Chase last time out
* All 28 horses doing that in this race lost
* Its not a good preparation for a handicap here
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the festival since 1993
* Thats every Handicap over any distance
* Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases were poor
* Those with 10st 11lbs or more had a 1-135 record
* That horse was far less exposed and much younger
* This has never really been his track
* He has run well here before but both wins were right handed
* He could also have Aintree in mind rather than today
* I think he has an unimpressive profile

* THEATRICAL MOMENT has 4 Chase starts
* He has a nasty 78 day absence though
* It strikes me that if you want a horse with 4 chase starts
* Wouldnt you rather have Bensalem ?
* He has a much more recent run
* He has Graded form and THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt
* He is only carrying 1lbs more weight
* That tells me THEATRICAL MOMENT has a bit to do
* Bought for good money by Jonjo O’Neil
* Improved since a Breathing operation
* His chance in perspective to Bensalem does put me off
* I gave an interesting stat when looking at The Package
* No Cheltenham Handicap of any kind went to this type
* Absence of 80 + days - 13 + carrer starts - No Grade 1/2 form
* Thats any of Cheltenhams 132 handicaps since 1993
* THEATRICAL MOMENT only just scraped through that stat
* Had he been absent a further 4 days he would have failed it
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more in this race have won
* However they all had form in a Grade 1 race before
* THEATRICAL MOMENT hasnt ran in any Graded race
* He is light on chasing experience with 4 runs
* There was a winner from a Novice Chase with no Graded form
* That was Fork Lightening (2004) but he had a recent run
* THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt come out good enough

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE isnt out of this statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles than he has
* My biggest problem with him is the track
* I think he is best on a Flatter track
* I think the Scottish National is a better option

* RAZOR ROYALE won the Racing Post Chase last time
* He had a hard race last doing that 17 days ago
* That said two past winners were 1st and 2nd in that race
* They both won this. Malborough was the same age in 2000
* He did have a lot less weight though
* Statistically there’s no reason why he shouldnt do the double
* His weight of 11st 3lbs is higher than ideal
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He has also been on the go since September
* Very few past winners ran as early in the year as that
* He has more runs this year than most winners
* There are some concerns and it wont be easy for him

* OGEE has 4 chase runs and is a little inexperienced
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 2 past winners came from a Novice Chase
* They were both 8 year olds and he is a 7yo
* I looked at 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* Those with 10st 9lbs or less were 0-5
* They did have a second in 2000 but he had more experience
* I can’t match OGEE perfectly but it’s not a bad profile
* I think there has to be a worry about the track
* He has lots of form on sharp tracks and flat tracks
* He goes well left handed and has run well on other tracks
* It would be a worry but its far from certain to be a problem
* Its also interesting very few winners had Flat careers

I will be amazed if CHARACTER BUILDING can win this
race with just 1 run this season and a career high mark. I
would not want him at twice his price. COMPLY OR DIE
is rejected for the similar reasons. THE TOTHER ONE is
also rejected. I could not have any horse with 11st 12lbs
absent 78 days. I looked at all the handicaps run at this
festival since 1993 and no horse had been absent  more
than 7 weeks with 11st10lbs or more and he should have
too much to do. I looked at every handicap Chase run at
the Festival before at any distance. There were very few
seasonal debutants win. None were aged 8 (0-48) and
None did it without Grade 1 or Grade 2 form before so
OFFICIER DE RESERVE has to go. No horse has won
any handicap chase absent like NEW ALCO over two
seasons and he is being aimed at the National.

OLLIE MAGERN isnt up to this now. STAN has poor
recent form and a miserable preparation. BIBLE LORD
hates big fields and isnt fanciable. KNOWHERE looks
vulnerable now he takes on younger horses after his
Veterans Chase run. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT has not
been the same horse since Injury forced him to have
a long break and he has not done much since and he
looks a horse aimed at the Aintree Grand National.

BEAT THE BOYS has been off 95 days and as he is
also lacking Grade 1 form and has 13 or more career
runs he is another horse like The Package that fails
the statistic showing no horse has won a Handicap
at the festival before absent that long like him. I am
against JOE LIVELY too old for his weight and with
the wrong type of preparation. I wouldnt want a 6yo
like TATENEN and he doesnt look right at all.

* CASEY JONES problem is his weight of 11st 5lbs
* There were 2 winners that had 11st 3lbs or more
* Both had 5 or more runs this year and a recent run
* CASEY JONES has just 2 runs and a long absence
* No winner like him came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* I think his weight and absence really hurt him
* There is evidence this may not be his track

STRONG PROFILES

* NENUPHAR COLLONGES is worth considering
* He is a previous Festival winner
* I shortlisted him in the Hennessy last time
* I shortlisted him in this race last year
* He was beaten less than a length in this race last year
* He has got an absence of 108 days
* That said he has won fresh before
* On his profile he is interesting
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks
* Previous run in a Grade 1 race
* 2-3-4 runs this season
* 13 or more career starts
* Weight of no more than 10st 11lbs
* Horses in this race with that profile were 2-5
* Joes Edge (2007) had that profile
* Wichita Lineman (2009) also had that profile
* I would have liked a more recent run
* I would have liked a better last run
* Easy to see he is second string behind Bensalem
* That said I think he has a fair chance in this
* I think he has a much better profile than it looks

* EXMOOR RANGER is a Positive
* Unexposed 8 year olds like did excellently
* When 1-2-3 last time over 3m or more
* When not beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* When having 3-4-5 runs that year
* These horses had a 5-13 record
* The problem with him is his weight
* All 5 winners in the 5-13 record had 10st 9lbs or less
* Those like him with 11st or more were 0-2
* I am not too disheartened about that
* 1 of them came second and the other had a slipped saddle
* EXMOOR RANGER is a horse I feel positive about
* If I could change 1 think I’d give him 5lbs less weight
* I Would have liked more track form as well

* KICKS FOR FREE is reasonable statistically
* Two runs this year and an absence doesnt worry me
* He has Grade 1 Class which is important
* He is at his best when Fresh
* 2 past winners had the same profile as he does
* He is still lightly raced over Chases and could improve
* He has placed at two festivals before over hurdles
* He has been rejected by Ruby Walsh which is an issue
* I still give him a good chance in this race

SELECTION

NENUPHAR COLLONGES each way 22/1 Ladbrokes s james VC

KICKS FOR FREE each way 25/1 Ladbrokes bet365 VC

Posted under horse racing tips

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

 
CHELTENHAM  5.15
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
(HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y
 6/1 Poquelin, 8/1 French Opera, 10/1 Clew Bay Cove, 10/1 My Petra,
10/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Pasco, 10/1 Tiger Cry, 14/1 I’m So Lucky,
14/1 Lorient Express, 14/1 Perce Rock, 20/1 Andreas, 20/1 Valain,
25/1 Calatagan, 25/1 Psychomodo, 33/1 Central House, 33/1 Moon
Over Miami, 40/1 Beggars Cap, 40/1 Palarshan, 40/1 Tramantano, 66/1 Jigsaw
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* Its been a long time since an exposed horse won this
* ANDREAS is exposed and has 11st 12lbs
* PALARSHAN is an 11 year old
* Only 7 horses aged 11 won handicaps at the festival
* None had 10st 6lbs or less (0-61)
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He looks way out of his depth
* BEGGARS CAP didnt do enough last time
* He looks outclassed in this
* CALATAGAN  is out aged 10 from hurdles
* No horse that age came from hurdles
* In this race horses from Hurdles were poor
* Those like him down in trip from hurdles were 0-50
* No exposed horse won any festival handicap with 11st 12lbs
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* JIGSAW DANCER was just hammered in a Novice Chase
* MOON OVER MIAMI also has that problem
* CENTRAL HOUSE looks too old
* TIGER CRY is a 11 year old absent 61 days
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse aged 11 or more won with a months absnece
* All 60 that tried lost
* With 2 runs since last April he may not be fit
* TIGER CRY looks opposable to me
* TIGER CRY did win this last year
* He had a far better profile though and was fitter
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* POQUELIN is a 6 year old absent 111 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* POQUELIN fails both those trends
* POQUELIN was also beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* FRENCH OPERA fails the same angles
* He was beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* We know no Festival Handicap went to a horse doing that
* He is also absent 7 weeks or more
* Horses like him aged under 8 doing that were 0-43
* No horse like him from a Novice race defied that absence
* FRENCH OPERA looks opposable to me
* OH CRICK was also beaten in a Novice last time
* Again no horse won a Festival handicap doing that
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* MY PETRA is a 6 year old absent 71 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* MY PETRA fails that and is rejeceted
* Every past winner ran in Graded Class before
* LORIENT EXPRESS has not done that
* He has had 36 races - Aged 10 - yet no Graded Class
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the Festival
* Horses aged 10+ with no past Graded form were 0-59
* That suggests to me LORIENT EXPRESS may lack class
POSSIBLES
* PSYCHOMODO isnt too bad statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles
* I dont personally think he will have the class
* He is not a 40/1 chance and is respected
* PERCE ROCK unseated his rider yesterday
* He would not have won and that was over 2m 5f
* I think trip and ground may catch him out
* He is certainly unsafe and has an outside chance
* PASCO is quite interesting as a Novice winner
* I would have prefered a little more than 3 chase runs
* The 2000 winner Samakaan managed it though
* Statistically he is shortlistable but there are worries
* His trainer has argued he wants softer ground
* He has also argued he may not like the track
* Ruby Walsh has also rejected him for Poquelin
* I find it hard to go with him because of that
* VALAIN is very hard to assess properly
* Not sure how relevant running on the flat recently is
* JP McManus owns him and CLEW BAY COVE
* Mc Coy rides CLEW BAY COVE
* I suspect thats because he cant do 10st 1lbs
* McCoy hasnt ridden below 10st 4lbs in the last year
* VALAIN may well be the stable preference
* It would trouble me he ran on the flat
* If he was fancied to win and prepared to perfection
* Why would he run on the flat just 2 weeks before
* As it was his first run since September it may be fitness
* Connections may have felt he wasnt fit
* That may be a rushed prearation
* VALAIN is a big price and that does help with worries
* Respect and Shortlist him but dont select him
* CLEW BAY COVE looks a bit exposed to me
* There has been winners like him but some time ago
* He has had 14 Handicap Chase runs so has no secrets
* You can also argue he may want softer ground
* I am not convinced about him to be honest
* TRAMANTANO looks unfancied at 40/1
* He was beaten 16 lengths in this race last year
* I tipped him in last years race at 25/1
* One or two early mistakes hurt his chance last year
* He is much Fresher this year and he needs that
* This horse is always best after an absence
* With 1 run since November he will be fresh enough
* He loves the track and I am betting him again
I’M SO LUCKY
* I’M SO LUCKY has a very smart profile
* I Looked at horses that had this profile like him
* Coming from a 2m Handicap chase in Class 2
* At least 9 runs and at least 3 that year
* Run within 7 weeks
* Starting 20/1 or shorter
* Has ran in Graded Class before
* Has won in their last 6 races
* Carrying less than 11st
* I’M SO LUCKY has that profile
* SO did 6 other horses that ran in this race before
* Those 6 horses had the following record
* W  W  W  2  3  5
* I’M SO LUCKY will love the drying ground
* He ran very well last time on ground too soft
* His previous race he was beaten by Planet Of Sound
* That horse was 3rd in Tuesdays Grade 1 Arkle
* I’M SO LUCKY had to give him 10lbs that day
* We now know that was an impossible task
* He won his previous 2 races easily
* Statistically he is strong as a lightly raced chaser
* He isnt over exposed in handicaps
* My only worry is will he handle the track
* He has a lot of flat track form
* Its a serious worry and I dont know the answer to it
Two Bets for me in this race
TRAMANTANO Each Way Bet at 40/1
I’M SO LUCKY Win Bet at 20/1

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM TUESDAY 2.40

William Hill TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

6/1 Wichita Lineman, 8/1 Possol, 10/1 Millenium Royal, 10/1 Patsy Hall, 10/1 Star De Mohaison, 11/1 Cailin Alainn, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 16/1 Maljimar, 16/1 Nenuphar Collonges, 20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 Golden Flight,  Simon, 20/1 Tot O’ Whiskey, 25/1 Wind Instrument, 33/1 Comply Or Die, 33/1 Hobbs Hill, 33/1 Lacdoudal, 33/1 Oedipe, 33/1 Reveillez, 33/1 The Sawyer, 40/1 Ollie Magern, Hot Weld, 66/1 Billyvoddan, Fundamentalist.

The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase. The
worst news for me was According To John missing it as
I had him lined up as an account bet. There are trends in
this race I see as relevant. I want to oppose  all exposed
horses that have just one run this season. None won this
race and in fact no exposed horse won a handicap chase
at the Cheltenham Festival with just one run that season
anytime in the last few years. Thats an interesting stat as
none were second either and I see thse horses as unlikely
to be fit enough to win. No past winners of this race had
one run that season either regardless of how exposed they
were. LOTHIAN FALCON has to be opposed because of
that. So to does HOT WELD. It is not time effective to
write essays about what trends horses at 50/1 and over

fail so I will just say that I cant see a case for any of the rank outsiders in this race and I am eliminating them all from consideration. GOLDEN FLIGHT is out with two
seasons absence as he’s also exposed. There’s not enough
about SIMON I like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I want to take on STAR DE MOHAISON with 11st 12lbs.
There’s been 65 handicap chases at the festival in recent
years over every and any distance and only 3 winners had
11st 8lbs or more in a weak 3-125 record. Of those all 56
horses that came from Graded races lost and that doesn’t
bode well for  STAR DE MOHAISON. I have looked at
every English horse that has run in a Handicap Chase at
this Festival. There has not been one race that went to a
horse with only 1 run that season when having a break of
over a month. Because of that I am against MALJIMAR
with 1 run this season and a 115 day break. I dont have
a huge problem statistically with DEAR VILLEZ but his
weight and a few other small issues put me off him.

My problem with CAILIN ALAINN is that he has 2 runs
at Cheltenham and Fell both times much as they were in
top class races. He only has 1 past run in a competetive
handicap and he pulled up in that and none of the past
winners came here from any Graded Chase that wasnt a
handicap.

NOVICE CHASERS

Horses that come from Novice Chases are always interesting
much as only one past winner did that. There are a few here
that do that. One statistic that interested me is that since 1992 Cheltenham has had 69 Handicap Chases run at this festival. In these 69 races no horse got beaten in a Novice Chase and came out and won a handicap chase. There has only been one Handicap Hurdle at this festival go to a horse beaten in a Novice Hurdle as well which supports the stat a little bit. I dont want a horse beaten in a Novice Chase so I am ignoring  WIND INSTRUMENT who doesnt look the
type equipped with the tools you would want for a race like this. TOT O´WHISKEY also fails that and its a shame as I gave TOT O´WHISKEY a chance off his low weight and I
feel he will run very well and place in the race. I dont want to make him my selection because of that trends but I am happy to make him my selection. MILLENIUM ROYAL
also comes from a Novice with just 5 chase starts but he
won that chase so is fine. He has no handicap experience
and although I am relaxed about that he has to do all that
carrying a weight no horse has carried in years. I also feel MILLENIUM ROYAL may have problems on the track.
He has not run here over fences but his hurdle runs were
below par and I dont see him as a Cheltenham horse. The
other Novice Chaser is WICHITA LINEMAN. He won a Novice Chase last time so passes the trend. The problem he has is that he has just 3 chase starts. You can argue its very inexperienced for a race like this and it is but he is
also well handicapped today and faces a weak renewal for
me. I think you have to shortlist him as there is a general
weakness throughout this whole field

SHORTLIST

POSSOL 9/1
NENUPHAR COLLONGES 20/1
WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1

POSSOL is trying to emulate Antonin who was the last 6 year
old winner and who like POSSOL came from the Racing Post
Chase at Kempton. POSSOL doesnt have the experience that
Antonin has but he has more chase runs than a lot of  the past winners and he is not out of this. Soft ground wouldnt be ideal though but I dont think its that soft today and his chance will be about whether he as a six year old can recover quickly enough from the Racing Post Chase just 17 days ago. I would rather not have a 6 year old but I have looked at all 6 year olds to win here
in handicap chases and he is a similar type to these.

NENUPHAR COLLONGES looks to have a lot to like about him
and he isnt to dissimilar from the 2005 winner but I would have prefered Cheltenham form.

PATSY HALL has to be a big runner as he was 4th in this race last year and is now significantly lower in the weights and also has the benefit of two extra prep runs and you can be sure he hasnt been fancied yet this season. He is a bit of an Underachiever but I feel he has enough to get him on the shortlist

SELECTION

WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1 - Win Bet  ( NOW BEST PRICED AT 13/2 CentreBet
TOT O’WHISKEY - Place Bet around 5/1 ( GO TO Betfair )

I could look at this race for weeks but I would never have found a better profile than According To John but he has missed the race now and there is nothing we can do about that. I want a place bet in the race on TOT O’WHISKEY as I feel off 10st 3lbs I couldnt name 4 horses to beat him and feel he may nick a place at 5/1

WICHITA LINEMAN is my selection. I am worried about his
3 chase runs but several have been lightly raced before winning this and his handicap mark sways me. He is a festival winner and a high class hurdler rated 156 and off 142 I feel he can win this off 142. If you assume I am right about the Topweight and also right about Millenium Royal - and if you take out the no hopers in the race this is only a 0-146 handicap chase and far weaker than usual. I know the horse doesnt impress everyone and many will see him as a bad favourite today with 3 runs but I dont see
this as as competetive as it usually is and I think he can win.

Posted under Major Horse Races