Mathematician Christmas Newsletters

As I mentioned in the previous newsletter

I promised you I would be sending you a sample of a Negative Profile

I have that for you here today for am upcoming Saturday race
where we have a horse trying to do something no horse has done in the last 21 years.

Also for the Welsh National I have some early research into sire stats.

These sire stats are of course just one componant of a total race assessment.

I will give you more later as research is done.

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Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

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S a t u r d a y s R a c i n g

C h e l t e n h a m 2.30

Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

(Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

UNIONISTE v WALKON

This race is run on Saturday. I will be doing full analysis

in my daily message on the day but I wanted to show a

very interesting difference between these two horses as

they are Joint Favourites and both are fancied to win it.

UNIONISTE

On Saturday Paul Nicholls will probably be upbeat and

positive about this 4 year old. There will be many people

backing him and if UNIONISTE manages to win then the

majority will collect their winnings without any idea that

he is trying to do something no horse like him has done

before. Thats not to say he wont win. He could easily do

it but unless you understand the Context of the bet you

are placing and appreciate what you are backing him to

do then you may as well not worry about the intelligent

side of gambling and go and buy a scratch card instead.

* Consider the following

* Since 1991 Cheltenham have had 477 Handicap Chases

* Thats 477 Handicap Chase at any distance in any class

* No 4 year old has ever won one of these 477 races

* No 4 year old has ever placed in one of these 477 races

* UNIONISTE is trying to become the first to do that

* Admittedly only 3 horses aged 4 have tried

* These 3 horses all failed to finish

* Original Fly- Always behind – tailed off and pulled up

* Whimper – Towards rear of midfield struggling when Fell

* Frosted Grape – Weakening and No Chance when Fell

Now if UNIONISTE wins he will have done something no

horse has done in the last 21 years. If he does win many

that back him will congratulate themselves saying how a

4 year olds was throw in and how skillfull it was to choose

him. Very few will understand how 4 year olds have done

and they will collect their winnings ignorant of the facts.

WALKON

This horse is the Joint Favourite with Unioniste and has

the more interesting profile of the two.

* Horses with 6-7-8-9 Chase stars dominate this race

* They have won 8 of the last 9 renewals of this race

* WALKON matches that with 6 Chase starts

* Horses with recent races dominate this race

* WALKON comes from the Paddy Power Gold Cup

* The 1997 2006 2009 2010 2011 winners did the same

* They all finished 1-2-3-4-5 in the Paddy Power like him

I thought the WALKON v UNIONISTE comparison was

fascinating and on the above data surely WALKON is

the better bet at the prices and I would also consider

him in the match bet if anything around even money.

 

 

W E L S H N A T I O N A L

SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS

STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND

Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there

is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not

done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly

as many racecourses have misleading distances. This

sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely

different distance to those advetised. Then you have a

lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as

I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races

that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.

That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any

horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help

and although this method is only a smaller piece of the

overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.

 

* What we do know is this

* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f

* He has to do that in a High Class race

* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too

 

I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may

find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won

in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I

try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.

* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National

* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more

* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races

* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS

* The following results are in order of my findings

* The Top of the table have the best records

* These are most likely to win Class long distance races

* And most likely to do that on bad ground

 

Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground

JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record

TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record

GILES CROSS 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record

LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record

MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record

VIKING BLOND 0-3 record

ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record

SONA SASTA 0-5 record

QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record

BRADLEY 0-8 record

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record

ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record

ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record

 

 

Detailed Results of the Findings

JOIN TOGETHER

* His sire has 610 winners

* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record

* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd

 

TEAFORTHREE

* His sire has 608 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record

 

GILES CROSS

* His sire has 471 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record

 

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE

* His sire has 611 winners

* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record

* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f

 

LE BEAU BAI

* His sire has 150 winners

* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record

* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race

 

MICHEL LE BON

* His sire has 71 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record

* That winner came in a Cross Country race though

 

VIKING BLOND

* His sire has 11 winners

* None of these came at 3m 3f or more

* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy

 

ALFIE SPINNER

* His sire has 481 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup

 

SONA SASTA

* His sire has 29 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record

* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed

 

QUARTZ DE THAIX

* His sire has 37 winners

* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record

* None of the 6 losers even placed

 

BRADLEY

* His sire has 361 winners

* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record

* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy

 

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

* His sire has 141 winners

* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record

* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f

 

ROALCO DE FARGES

* His sire has 91 winners

* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record

* There was a Grand National winner on good ground

* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races

 

ALFIE SHERRIN

* His sire has 347 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record

* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National

*****************************************

Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This not the race I am directing paying clients to bet in today.

It is however the race most asked about  in my inbox.

Here are my stats and quick thoughts.

 

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

18/1 ish available on betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

KHACHATURIAN yesterday on the free blog was  speculative
at a massive price but I feel I made a reasonable case for
him at the price. He got into the race but fell short when
it mattered and  finished only 10th. In such a huge field
confidence is impossible but I shortlisted only two and I
found the winner but went for the bigger priced horse as
I didn’t see any great value in Junior. The wrong choice.

One Strong Bet stands out to me today for Full Members.

She will put us ahead for the week if she wins.
It is always a  gruelling week but at least the prices are
good and you only need one winner to rescue Matters.

Aside from that one  I do like a lot today and feel confident in all  my bets.
ALARAZI whom I discuss below is a horse I felt should be backed at 8/1 but he has Far more
to beat than my Full Bet.

The Gold  Cup fascinates me.
LONG RUN and TIDAL BAY stand out to me.
I have backed both of these personally and if Tidal Bay wasnt in the field
I may have gone in much harder on LONG RUN. I’d love to
end with a Grand Annual bet but the ferocious field puts me off any serioius cash
so ANQUETTA is just a Mention for those who feel they have to play the race.

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent OBrien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

13/2 Alarazi, 7/1 Alaivan, 8/1 Dirar, 8/1 Ski Sunday
12/1 Blackstairmountain, 12/1 Final Approach
12/1 Snap Tie, 14/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 14/1 Soldatino
16/1 Notus De La Tour, Salden Licht, 16/1 Secret Dancer
20/1 Ciceron, 20/1 Hunterview, Bellvano, 25/1 Zanir
33/1 Cockney Trucker, 33/1 Dee Ee Williams
33/1 Grey Soldier, 33/1 Inventor, 33/1 Praxiteles
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Spring Jim, 66/1 Ellerslie Tom
66/1 Gloucester, 66/1 Nearby, 66/1 Premier Dane.

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* The weather in December caused a lot of problems
* I said then it would affect horses fitness in March
* I think this race has been affected by that
* I would want at least 3 runs this season
* SNAP TIE has to go as a seasonal debutant
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3 4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* SKI SUNDAY doesnt interest me with 1 run this year
* BELLVANO is out with 1 run this season
* SALDEN LICHT has ran just twice this year
* SOLDATINO  has ran just twice this year
* NOTUS DE LA TOUR has ran just twice this year
* FINAL APPROACH has ran just twice this year
* DIRAR has only raced twice this year
* He has to prove he can act at Cheltenham as well
* ZANIR looks underraced with 2 runs this season
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* SALDEN LICHT fails that
* GET ME OUT OF HERE fails that with 3 runs
* BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN also fails that
* ELLERSLIE TOM fails that
* BELLVANO fails that
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18
* SALDEN LICHT fails that
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN also fails that
* SKI SUNDAY also fails that
* INVENTOR has been absent 210 days failing that
* FINAL APPROACH has been absent longer than ideal
* PRAXITELES has a nasty absence as well
* GLOUCESTER fails the absence statistic
* PREMIER DANE fails the absence statistic
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* TARKARI fails that
* NEARBY doesnt look too well handicapped
* He has a lot of weight for an older horse
* I dont think he will give the weight away
* GREY SOLDIER needs abnormal improvement
* On his last run which was his first since October
* No past winners came from Chases
* DEE EE WILLIAMS doesnt look safe doing that

BIG PRICED POSSIBLES

* COCKNEY TRUCKER is older than ideal aged 9
* There were winners his age and his profile looks ok
* Well raced and fit this year I respect him
* I dont think he will win his as a 9 year old
* I see him as vulnerable but he shouldnt be 66/1
* COCKNEY TRUCKER is far too big at that price
* HUNTERVIEW comes out as fine
* I didnt think he would win again off a career high mark
* Not as a 5 year old but 50/1 is too big a price
* CICERON has done enough to shortlist
* The demands of this track will test him
* He has too much form on sharp flat tracks for me
* Statistically fine but with outside flaws

SHORTLIST

* SECRET DANCER has a fine chance
* Not dissimilar to last years winner
* Only in that he has just 3 runs this season
* Not convinced he will be fit enough

* ALAIVAN has to be shortlisted
* Only 1 horse aged 5 had 11st 1lbs or more though
* That horse won the Imperial Cup just 7 days ago

* ALARAZI looks a very strong runner
* His win 6 days ago shortlists him comfortably
* Horses coming from the Imperial Cup are a poor 1-37
* Horses that won the Imperial Cup last time are 1-7
* Thats much better but that winner was a 5yo
* He was lighter raced than ALARAZI as well
* That said off 10st 4lbs he  is a huge runner

SELECTION

ALARAZI looks strongest to me
8/1 at bet 365 –  ladbrokes – william hill

* I also like Alaivan to beat Ski Sunday in a match bet

Posted under Major Horse Races

Looking for a lot of luck this festival. You can do all the
preparation you like and I can assure you I have done more
than 99% of other punters out there but without luck its impossible with
so many top class horses. You can read a lot and listen
to many people and their opinions. Most of these do not
help at all. Most trainers and jockeys either have no idea
or want to make sure you don’t have one either and Trust
is hard to find in anything people say. It comes down to
Judgement on the day and a bit of luck in the right place.

I do love the Festival but cut away the hype and it is just
another race meeting for a professional to turn money over on.

As ever the name of the game is to seek value and think long term
NOT just aim at the most likely winner on the day.

One the free blog today I have previewed the 2.40 for you.

I have left it as a short list of six.
It is good that you think for yourself a bit.

I have however nailed my colours to the mast for full members here.

Note the Cheltenham Offer Page if you want to join up.

Analysis for all other Cheltenham Races today is within the member area right now.

********** CHELTENHAM DEAL  ************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
******************************************

CHELTENHAM 2.40

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/2 Bensalem, 11/2 Great Endeavour, 6/1 Sunnyhillboy
9/1 Reve De Sivola, 12/1 Blazing Bailey, 14/1 Wolf Moon
16/1 Carole´s Legacy, 20/1 Adams Island, 20/1 Chief Dan George 20/1
Exmoor Ranger, 20/1 Fair Along, 20/1 Rare Bob
25/1 King Fontaine, 25/1 Razor Royale, 25/1 The Rainbow Hunter 33/1
Carrickmines, 33/1 The Sawyer, 50/1 No Panic 50/1 Slippers Percy.

* The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

NEGATIVES

* BENSALEM fell two from home in last years race
* It looked like he may have won last season
* I think there are enough doubts to oppose him this year
* He has not had a run over fences since this race last year
* No past winners came from hurdles or a Graded race
* He has fallen in 2 of his 3 previous chase starts.
* Most winners had more chasing experience than him
* I would like more than 2 runs this season
* No 8 year old has won this so lightly raced this season.
* Horses with 1-2 runs this year running with 7 weeks are 0-32
* I felt he badly need his last run and may need this again
* The last 11 winners carried less than 11st
* BENSALEM has more than that when underraced
* I feel there are stamina doubts. He’s yet to win at this far
* He has a 0-5 record at 3m and more
* His Sire hasnt had too many 3m winners either
* For me there are too many doubts about BENSALEM
* BENSALEM is opposed

* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all distances
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR fails that
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* They were Andreas – An Accordion -Samakaan
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR looks weak with those angles
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a lot of weight with 11st 7lbs
* Only 2 of the last 17 winners had more than 11st 2lbs
* Both had Grade 1 form and he doesnt have that
* Both had 5 or more runs that season and he has just 2
* Both ran within 7 weeks and he doesnt either
* I think his weight and absence are problems
* They compact on the rest of his profile
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like GREAT ENDEAVOUR
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a career high mark as well

* SUNNYHILLBOY only has 2 runs this season
* I would want Grade 1 form for horses like that
* No winner won this with 1-2 runs without Grade 1 form
* There are stamina doubts and he has to come from 21f
* No horse managed that without Grade 1 form
* Throw in a long absence and he doesnt impress me
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like SUNNYHILLBOY
* Both had Grade 1 form and he only has Grade 3 form
* Both horses were older and had a more recent race
* SUNNYHILLBOY just doesnt look right

* BLAZING BAILEY has won his last 2 races
* It has left him with a career high mark and large weight
* He fails all sorts of weight statistics here
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Thats 74 races at the festival at all distances
* I looked for exposed horses winning with 11st 8lbs +
* Only one horse won in the last 75 races (Unguided Missile)
* He was well handicapped and well raced this year
* He also won in a small field
* BLAZING BAILEY has too much to prove for me

* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Only 1 horse came from a Grade 1 Chase
* He (Sound Reveille) won the Grand Annual over 2m
* He had Pulled up just 2 days earlier in the Arkle
* REVE DE SIVOLA would be an unorthodox winner
* In his favour is that he is well handicapped on hurdle form
* He has a good record at Cheltenham as well
* He does have several problems to contend with
* He’s 6 and only 1 horse aged 6 won Since 1972 -1956
* That winner (Antonin) had 14 previous Chase runs
* REVE DE SIVOLA only has 4 Chase starts
* Thats less experienced than any recent winner bar 1
* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from 2m 6f or less
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* REVE DE SIVOLA also fails the last time out angles
* REVE DE SIVOLA has a weak profile in my view

* CAROLE´S LEGACY is a 7yo Mare
* No 7yo Mare has won any Festival Handicap
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Mares had a 2-55 record in these races
* None did it over 3m or more
* None did it  with under 4 runs that season
* None did with over a Months absence like her
* None did it with more than 10st 9lbs (0-26)
* CAROLE´S LEGACY looks unsafe to me
* Throw in the fact she comes from hurdles
* No winner of this race managed that
* She also has a higher weight than most winners
* What swings it for me is this
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Horses aged 7 won 10 of these 75 races
* Those carrying 11st or more were 0-47
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has 11st 5lbs
* No horse with her profile has won any Chase here
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has to go

* ADAMS ISLAND comes from a Graded Chase over 21f
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* No past winners came from Graded Chases anyway
* ADAMS ISLAND doesnt leap off the page to me
* Especially with an Apprentice Rider
* He has been busier this year than most previous winners
* He makes plenty of mistakes when he races as well
* No Cheltenham experience wont help
* His trainer is said to be worried about the track
* He hasnt any form in big field handicaps either
* I think this race will find him out
* NO PANIC has a poor profile
* He was beaten 99 lengths just 12 days ago
* Pulled up the time before
* Overexposed and prefers a sharper track
* There are not enough positives to consider him
* CARRICKMINES is an exposed horses
* He doesnt fit the pattern of any past winners
* No exposed horses were aged 7-8-9 like him
* They all had backclass in a higher grade than him
* He looks overraced this year since October
* He has a Career high mark on a track he’s never ran on
* This should be too hard a race for him
* SLIPPERS PERCY is impossible to fancy
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE is 11 years old
* He won this race last year with 10st 10lbs
* This year he has 11st 7lbs a very hard weight
* He also had more runs last season
* I looked at all Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* Exposed 11 year olds with 1-2-3-4 runs that year are 2-72
* None carried 11st 5lbs or more
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE may just have too much to do
* RAZOR ROYALE is a course and distance winner
* He won the Racing Post Chase last year
* All 5 runs since them though have been miserable
* He tailed off in this race last year before pulling up
* Since then 4 runs and 4 heavy defeats
* I couldnt bet him on his recent form
* He doesnt feel fit enough or well enough to win
* THE SAWYER is 11 years old
* Horses aged 11 have a poor 1-46 record in this race
* I looked at all 11 year olds in all festival handicaps
* Take the ones that run within a Month
* Take the ones that have Graded Form
* Take the ones with 3-4-5-6 runs that season
* There are 5 winners like that in all festival handicaps
* THE SAWYER is the right type of 11yo
* That included the 1997 winner of this race
* Those aged 11 with 11st 2lbs or less were 1-3 in this race
* THE SAWYER should Not be opposed because of this age
* That said he was beaten further than ideal last time
* There is every chance he didnt stay last time
* It was in a Veterans Chase though which isnt ideal
* Two dilemmas for me
* Will the ground be too quick for him ?
* Has he had enough recovery time

MY SHORTLIST

* RARE BOB has 11st 10lbs to carry
* Thats a lot of weight for an exposed horse
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Exposed horses with 11st 8lbs or more are just 1-58
* That winner had more runs this season
* He didnt have that long an absence either
* That winner in the 1-58 record ran in this race
* That was Unguided Missile in 1998
* He had a 45 day break which is only 20 days less
* He also came from 2m 5f just as RARE BOB did
* That fact alone tells me I cant rule him out
* RARE BOB is a good price at 25/1

* KING FONTAINE is worth considering
* The only angle he fails is his last run wasnt good
* He Pulled up over 3m 4f at Haydock last time
* Ideally you want a horse 1-2-3-4 last time and he wasnt
* That said there are reasons to overlook that
* 1999 winner (Bettys Boy) was well beaten before winning
* He dropped from 3m 4f as well and was unexposed too
* He has a good weight and before his last run was flying
* He would have needed the run last time
* He has been dropped 2lbs in the weights as well
* He fits all the other important trends
* This is a horse thats going to the Grand National
* There has to be a concern this is a prep race
* All concerns are compensated by a very big price
*  KING FONTAINE is a big price at 33/1

* FAIR ALONG has to carry 11st 7lbs
* Thats a lot of weight for a small horse
* Thats probably my biggest worry about him
* Not sure about him either in a big field
* All his Chase runs have come in small fields
* All exposed winners of this had more runs that season
* They were also older than him as well as well
* FAIR ALONG has plenty in his favour though
* He is a high class Group 1 horse
* He is not badly weighted off 148
* I think he has the class to win this off a big  weight
* It’s just whether he can jump well enough
* Thats when a small horse in a big field with a big weight

* THE RAINBOW HUNTER is a lightly raced 7yo
* No concerns he has never run beyond Class 3 before
* Not dissimilar to 2006 winner Dun Doire
* I see him as progressive and a serious runner

* WOLF MOON won a Novice Chase last time
* The 2004 and 2008 winners of this race did that
* Both were 8 year olds as WOLF MOON is
* As a profile I am happy with that
* You could say the two other winners came from better tracks
* They both won with absences as well and he doesnt
* Neither were out of the handicap either
* WOLF MOON is 6lbs wrong at the weights
* That has to hurt him when there is a class issue
* Its a lot to ask for a Catterick Novice Chase winner
* There has been 1 winner of this out of the weights
* That was maamur back in 1996
* He was also an 8yo
* He also won within the past 15 days like WOLF MOON
* Thats what swings it for me
* Profile wise he is more than good enough to shortlist

* EXMOOR RANGER was brought down at the 7th last year
* I gave him a really good chance of winning this last year
* I wouldnt rule him out with 3lbs more this year
* Technically he is exposed with 21 runs but I forgive that
* He is on the cusp and he hasnt ran 21 full races yet
* Happy to overlook 11st 3lbs as well
* There are some doubts about him
* I dont like the fact he has a career high mark
* I dont like the fact he Unseated rider last time either
* He was going well when he fell though
* Statistically I cant match him as he wasnt 1-2-3-4 last time
* I still give him a good chance in this race
* Ground Trip and Track are right for him
* Very much one of the better options

LATEST ODDS AND PRICES FOR THIS RACE

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-03-15/cheltenham/14-40/betting/

 

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races

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———————————————————

HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
ladbrokes , sky , bet365, william hill etc

Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips