The Grand National is arguably the pinnacle of UK horse racing, with the race itself commanding the highest prize for winning. Last year’s winner, One For Arthur became only the second horse trained in Scotland to win the race and finished four and a half lengths ahead of Cause of Causes.

Blaklion is the favourite on the latest on the Grand National bets for 2018 while Total Recall and the Last Samuri are not far behind this year’s favourite. Blaklion finished fourth in last year’s race and will be hoping to improve on that position in this year’s race.

The preparations for the Grand National are already underway, with the racecourse requiring months of work to get everything just right. Everything from making sure the going is perfect to completing the construction of the sixteen fences. The Grand National course itself is one of the most demanding courses in the country for the horses to race, while the construction of the fences and the ground preparation are equally demanding. It takes roughly three weeks to prepare the course with each of the sixteen fences taking two days to construct and dress.

For the day of the Grand National there is a huge increase in the number of ground staff that are on site to make sure everything is perfect for the big race. On this day there are usually 225 ground staff, whereas a normal race day at Aintree will only see forty members of the grounds team on site.

Our Friends at Betfair  created the following infographic which describes all of the different stages that are involved in getting the Aintree race course ready for one of the biggest races in British racing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Grand National Stats – Ratings – Breeding

Guy has been doing a bit of extra research for full members this

week into the Grand National.

I have collated most of it here for you.

He has concocted a pretty complicated ratings system

awarding points for certain elements of form.

 

Similar last year did semi ok.

It did not pick up the winner Many Clouds

but his nine horse short list did highlight

2nd and 3rd horses Saint Are and Monbeg Dude

who returned 13.48 and 16.02 in the BETFAIR

exchange place markets.

 

I guess there will always be a degree of personal

choice with such things.

Some may be prone to go full hog to find the one winner from forty horses.

Others may see logic in aiming for a more achievable place.

 

Best wishes and good luck for the National

I hope the info below is a bit of extra help if

you like to pick your own.

 

If you prefer to read to Guy’s personal final opinion

on the day for the Grand National and multiple other races just book in at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Cheers

Mick

Site Admin

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#1 – Race Statistics

 

Horses aged 6 and 7 are far too young
They haven’t won since 1940 and few finish the race

Horses aged 8 need looking at
Only 4 of the last 38 winners were 8 year olds
If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
Be aware some horses are younger than their age
If Foaled after the day of the race they are really under 8
Most 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
Those foaled in May or later look opposable
They are just 7 and a few months old
Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with some confidence

Older horses dominated recently.

2010 The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more
2011 The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
2012 The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more
2013 The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
2014 The 1st 2nd 6th were aged 10 or more
2015 The 3rd 4th were aged 10 or more

The last 27 winners had the following runs that season
4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season underperform
None have won with just 1 run
Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year
He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs
I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
If under 25 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs

Runs Since January 1st that year
Past winners had the following runs
2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4
20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1
Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

It is very important to have a recent race
The last 25 winners were absent this many days
29 23 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20
25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days
Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
56 24 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35
23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
20 of the past 25 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

Class is important in a National Winner
13 of the last 15 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
Ballabriggs (2011) did not do that
He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
That was more than worthy or a Graded win
Pineau De Re (2014) did not do that either
He was 2nd in a Grade race though
24 of the last 25 had raced in Graded Class before
The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
Again I make the point he could be seen differently
The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
Horses with 25 + runs must have past Graded Form
Having No Graded form is a serious worry

Do not rule out highweights who scored well recently
Many have won before and the fences are easier now

Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
The previous 24 winners had the following Chase runs
10 11 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
He had 9 Chase runs and 3 other winners had 10 Chase starts
Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners

I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
21 22 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
10 of the last 15 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start

We have to bear in mind the race is changing
The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
The race has been maid easier too

21 of the last 22 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
They had 5 3 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

You want a decent Jumper
15 of the last 16 winners had not fallen more than twice before
This was the only statistic the 66/1 winner in 2013 failed
I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic
Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter

I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
No horse won doing that with 21 or more runs
Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
1 9 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
Every winner bar 1 ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
They won 15 of the last 23 renewals
Number of Handicap Chases won
Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases
Seasonal Debutants should be avoided
Not having headgear is preferable to having it
Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
3 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
There were 7 winners coming from Cheltenham
The 1994 1996 2015 winners came from the Gold Cup
Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
The 2010 2014 winners came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle
Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
Ideally I’d like good chase form in a big field
Ideally I’d avoid horses that were Novices last year

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#2 – Grand National Ratings Rules

 

Each horse starts with 50 Points

Horses aged 7 – Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 – Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 8 Foaled after May 1st- Subtract 1 more point
Horses aged 10 – Add Half a Point
Horses aged 11 – Add Half a Point
Horses aged 12 – Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 13 + Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 have a 2pts deduction
Add an extra Point if they have won a Graded Chase before

Previous runs since August 1st 2014
Horses with 0-1 runs in this period – Subtract 5 points
Horses with 2 runs in this period – Subtract 3 Points
Horses with 3 runs – Subtract 0.5 points
Horses with 2 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 2pts
Horses with 3 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1pts

Runs Since January 1st  2015
Horses with under 2 runs since Jan 1st – Subtract 2 points
If having 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1 point

Horses absent 56-65 Days- Subtract 1 point
Horses absent 66-85 Days – Subtract 2 points
Horses absent 86-96 Days – Subtract 3 points
Horses absent 97-119 Days – Subtract 3.5 points
Horses absent 120 + days – Subtract 4 points

Horses winning Listed/Graded races – Add 1 point
Horses without any Graded form – Subtract 3 points
No point deductions for high weights this year

Horses with Under 9 Chase starts – Subtract 3 points
Horses with under 3 Chase wins – Subtract 1.5 points
Horses with 3 or more Chase Falls – Subtract 2 points

Horses who did not win over 3m or more – Subtract 3 points
Horses that have won over 3m 3f or more – Add 1 point
Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter – Subtract 1.5 points
If that 2m 4f race is a Chase – Subtract 0.5 extra point
Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter – Subtract 1 point
If that horse has 21 or more career runs – Subtract 0.5 more points

Horses with Under 3 Handicap Chase runs – Subtract 2pts
Only deduct 1 point if they have won a Grade 1-2 Chase
Only deduct 1 point if they have placed in a Grade 1 Chase
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap – Add a Point
Never won a Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point
Won 7 or more Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point
2 or more wins since August 1st 2014 – Subtract 1 point

Horses coming from Cheltenham Handicaps
Winning last time in that race – Subtract 1.5 points
Horses coming from any Cheltenham race
Beaten over 15 lengths in that race – Subtract 1pt
Horses that raced over hurdles since Aug 1st – Add 1 point
Horses starting 25/1 + last time if it was a Chase – Subtract 1.5pts

Horses that fail my Breeding Statistics will also face deductions

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#3 – Grand National Horse Ratings

 

Theoretically the higher the number the better the chance

The Best profile on these scores belongs to Goonyella.

I have ignored rating 7 year olds as I know they would not score well.

A few total outsiders I have also ducked.

 

Goonyella 53.00
Rocky Creek 52.50
Bishops Road 52.00 (Doubtful runner)
Gallant Oscar 52.00
Holywell 51.00
Unioniste 51.00
Soll 50.5
Just A Par 50.50
The Romford Pele 50.5
Many Clouds 50.00
The Druids Nephew 49.50
Aachen 49.00
Black Thunder 48.50
Triolo D’Alene 48.00
Le Reve 48.00
O’Faolains Boy 47.50
Saint Are  47.00
Kruzhlinin 47.00
Ballynagour 47.00
Double Ross 47.00
First Lieutenant 46.5
Boston Bob  46.5
On His Own 45.50
Ballycasey 45.50
Silviniaco Conti  45.00
Buywise 45.00
Sir Des Champs 45.00
Vics Canvas 45.00
Rule The World 44.50
Gilgamboa 43.50
The Last Samuri  42.5
Morning Assembly 41.50
Shutthefrontdoor 38.00
Wonderful Charm 37.00
Ucello Conti 36.50

 

 

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#4 – Breeding Statistics

 

Looking at Sires record

The records under these circumstances

3m 6f and longer

Graded Races

Fields of 13 or more

Good or Softer Ground

Not Cross Country or Hunter Chases

 

Safe Sires

MANY CLOUDS – SILVINIACO CONTI

FIRST LIEUTENANT -HOME FARM- UNIONISTE

BALLYCASEY -GOONYELLA – SOLL -ON HIS OWN

THE LAST SAMURI – PENDRA – VICS CANVAS

 

Unproven Sires

GALLANT OSCAR -O´FAOLAINS BOY

ONENIGHTINVIENNA – LE REVE – TRIOLO D´ALENE

BISHOPS ROAD – KATENKO – HOLYWELL

 

Negative Sires

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR – ROCKY CREEK – KRUZHLININ

THE ROMFORD PELE -WONDERFUL CHARM – BUYWISE

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW- ROYALE KNIGHT – BOSTON BOB

GILGAMBOA -BALLYNAGOUR -MORNING ASSEMBLY

PERFECT CANDIDATE – HADRIAN´S APPROACH

SAINT ARE – DOUBLE ROSS – RULE THE WORLD

JUST A PAR – AACHEN – BLACK THUNDER – UCELLO CONTI

SIR DES CHAMPS

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#5 – Final Conclusions About What May Be A Value Grand National Tip

Final decissions were made on Saturday morning.

Issues such as going and certain horses suitability to it or not

is normally best left to day of the race.

Odds available is also of course a key part of the thinking

of any value punter.

To read Guy’s final conclusions after interpreting his stats

and to see the logic he used to select the winner

Rule The World

See Here ==:> Grand National Tip Winner

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

We have just popped up some detailed research into the Grand National

over on our main site.

see here Grand National Tips

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

It’s that time of year again folks.

Grand National Day tomorrow.

It’s a race I live in fear of each year sweating over the possibility of her indoors picking the winner on the grounds that the jockey was wearing a pretty blouse. If so I won’t hear the end of it for a long time.

I have put a bit more effort into my own research than that. Remember however that hard work and research is a thing that tends to pay off in the long run but not every day nor in every race.

Below you can read my personal thoughts on the race.

Good luck to you no matter who you decide to back in the end.

 

 

John Smith’s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) (7yo+) 4m3f110y

See live odds from multiple bookmakers

This year The Grand National has been shortened to 4m3f110y

One area that interests me is the number of runs this year horses have had.
So I will start there

Number of Races This Season

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year
* The following horses fail this and are rejected
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is 12 with 1 run this season
* That’s not an acceptable profile with Topweight
* WHAT A FRIEND is exposed with 1 run this season
* QUEL ESPRIT is out with 2 runs this season
* His sire’s never had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* Stamina Weight and lack of runs should beat him
* ALWAYS WAINING 12 and has just 2 runs this season
* He is Flat Bred and doesn’t look likely to stay
* TREACLE will stay but he is also underraced
* He’s exposed aged 12 with just two runs this season

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* SUNNYHILLBOY only has two runs this season
* He was 2nd in last years race
* I don’t see him repeating that this year
* He had 4 prepatory races last year and just 2 this year
* He had 30 days absence last year but now has 84 days
* He had 10st 5lbs last year and now 11st 4lbs
* That’s three big problems from an exposed horse
* He is hardly big in stature anyway
* He withdrew from the Gold Cup on the day
* That lack of prep run must count against him
* seabass has raced just twice this season
* He was 3rd in last years race when favourite
* Last year he had 8lbs less weight
* He also had 4 runs that season
* Now with more weight and only 2 runs I oppose him
* ON HIS OWN has raced just once this year
* He has a very worrying profile in other areas
* The least experienced winner had 9 Chase runs
* He has just 7 Chase runs and only 1 run this year
* He is a serious talent and has ability
* He may be a new breed of horses about to win this
* None before were remotely like him though
* Until one wins we should oppose his type of horse
* BALTHAZAR KING has just two runs this season
* That’s a big worry for an exposed horse like him
* He won the 2012 Cross Country at Cheltenham
* That was 3m 7f but not a true stamina test
* He is the only horse by his sire to win beyond 3m 3f
* Horses by Kings Theatre are 1-32 racing at 3m 3f +
* His 141 day absence also badly damages his chance
* The past 21 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* CAPPA BLEU has only raced twice this season
* The last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases before
* CAPPA BLEU hasn’t done that yet
* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* With 9 Chase runs he’d be joint least experienced winner

A Recent Race

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* I’d not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25
* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23
* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 18 of the past 22 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is absent 70 days
* SUNNYHILLBOY has an absence of 84 days
* BALTHAZAR KING is absent 141 days
* The above 3 horses are already rejected
* MUMBLES HEAD and LOST GLORY fail it too

Age Of Winner

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven’t won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* SAINT ARE is rejected as a 7 year old
* Horses aged 8 need to actually be 8 year olds
* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds
* Horses aged 8 haven’t the best recent record
* If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
* Be aware some horses are younger than their age
* If Foaled after April 6th they are really under 8
* All 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere are the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early the year they were born
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* LOST GLORY is a only about 7.5 years old
* SOLL wont fully be an 8 year old form another 28 days
* HARRY THE VIKING isn’t 8 quite yet either

Back Class

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 11 of the last 12 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* 21 of the last 22 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses have no Graded form
* TARQUINIUS – LOST GLORY
* COLBERT STATION has no Listed or Graded form
* That’s a worry but I don’t want to be hasty with him
* He won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily
* Officially that Irish race was a Class 2 race
* I would view that as more like a Graded race
* COLBERT STATION gets a free pass on this statistic

* These Horses haven’t won a Listed/Graded race
* VIKING BLOND – SOLL – MAJOR MALARKEY
* ANY CURRENCY – HARRY THE VIKING – MUMBLES HEAD
* MR MOONSHINE – BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
* THE RAINBOW HUNTER – SWING BILL – TREACLE
* OSCAR TIME – JOIN TOGETHER
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE hasn’t won in this class either
* BALTHAZAR KING has also failed that
* CAPPA BLUE is yet to win in Listed/Graded class too
* TEAFORTHREE has plenty of Graded form
* He has never won beyond Class 2 before
* That is a definite negative about his profile

Chasing Experience

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* COLBERT STATION only has 5 Chase starts
* That is 4 less than the least experienced winner
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* Last years 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been maid easier this year
* COLBERT STATION fails this but I could forgive this
* He has a longer absence than the last 21 winners
* That’s only by 6 days though and I would ignore that
* COLBERT STATION – I would still keep him on side
* ON HIS OWN only has 7 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those in this race last year
* I rejected him earlier with 1 run this season
* JOIN TOGETHER has raced in only 8 Chases
* That’s a bit short of runs when he didn’t finish in three
* WIth two Pulled Ups and a Fall he hasn’t had many runs
* JOIN TOGETHER gets credit in many areas
* He will stay and he has backclass
* He also has a healthy of runs this season
* Against him is just 8 previous chase runs
* Especially when not finishing 3 of these
* It worries me he was a Novice just 12 months ago
* There is also the issue of field size
* His Trainer is on record saying he likes small fields
* All his wins come in fields of 10 or less
* In fields of 11 or more he is PU 7th Fell PU
* He’s been to 2 Cheltenham and 1 Aintree festival
* He has disappointed on all three occasions
* Profile isn’t quite right and has a few minor flaws
* CAPPA BLEU is short of Chase runs having only 9
* CAPPA BLEU is short of runs as well with just 2 this year
* That’s not many for a horse aged 11
* He was 4th in last years race
* He was younger then and had an extra run that season
* The last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases before
* CAPPA BLEU hasn’t done that yet
* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* With 9 Chase runs he’d be joint least experienced winner
* CAPPA BLUE is yet to win in Listed/Graded class too
* All in all I want more from a 12/1 chance

Weight

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

Past Chase Wins

* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* JOIN TOGETHER also fail this
* Both of these have already been rejected
* NINETIETH MINUTE has won just 1 Chase start
* I wouldn’t want to bet him
* COLBERT STATION also fails this stat with 2 Chase wins
* That’s understandable as he has just 6 Chase runs
* He has a 40% strike rate over fences
* If we forgive him inexperience we can forgive him this

Handicap Chase Runs

* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
* They won 14 of the last 20 renewals
* Every recent winner ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER has just 1 Handicap Chase run
* COLBERT STATION only has 2 Handicap Chase runs
* JOIN TOGETHER only has 3 Handicap Chase runs
* All of these have already been rejected
* NINETIETH MINUTE only has 3 Handicap runs
* JONCOL runs in his first Handicap Chase today
* We know every past winner ran in at least 4
* JONCOL could have problems with ground and trip
* He clearly looks best around 2m 4f – 2m 6f
* I don’t see him getting home

Past Handicap Chase Wins

* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

Jumping Ability

* You want a decent Jumper of course
* The last 13 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic
* It is something to bear in Mind
* TATENEN has 1 Fall and 3 Unseated riders
* BIG FELLA THANKS has 1 Fall and 3 Unseated riders
* CHICAGO GREY has fallen twice and unseated as well
* AURORAS ENCORE has fallen 3 times and unseated

The 3 Mile Statistic

* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* seabass hasn’t done that but I ignore that
* His 3rd in this race last year trumps that
* I have rejected him for different reasons
* TATENEN has never raced beyond 2m 6f
* His sire hasn’t bred a 3m 3f winner yet
* Coming from the 2m Grand Annual must hurt him
* He moves up almost 2m 4f in distance today

Horses Coming From 2m4f Races

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter
* I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
* No exposed horse won doing that
* TATENEN fails that and makes no appeal
* CHICAGO GREY comes from a 2m 4f race
* More about his chance later on

* BIG FELLA THANKS also comes from 2m 4f
* He has a mixed profile for me
* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran 3 times in this race
* He was beaten 23 28 and 40 lengths
* All 3 times he had a bad profile and excuses
* I don’t think he has a disastrous profile this year
* I think he has a lot of weight for what he’s achieved
* He has more weight this year than for all 3 of his failures
* Not keen he comes from 2m 4f either when exposed
* He probably doesn’t get the trip and I wanted better

* WEIRD AL probably hasn’t got the guts to win this
* His good runs are rare and he is underraced this year
* There is a good chance he wont get home
* His sires runners at 3m 6f and more are 0-40
* AURORAS ENCORE is an exposed 11yo
* His sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet
* Not keen he has fallen 3 times and unseated already
* I don’t see him being good enough
* FORPADYDEPLASTERER has won an Arkle before
* You have to question his stamina here
* His sire’s runners at 3m 4f and more are 1-34
* That sole winner came at Cartmel in a Class 5 race
* He’s exposed and moves up almost 2 miles in trip
* I cant see him overcoming that
* NINETIETH MINUTE has won 1 of his 11 Chase runs
* 18 of the last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases
* He has less handicap chase experience than past winners
* His form isn’t really good enough to win this
* Liable to hit some fences and he’s fallen twice before
* RARE BOB passes most of my main angles
* He was brought down at the 5th in last years race
* He’s exposed and could be vulnerable to improvers
* I do like that he has improved on all 4 runs this year
* His Racing Post Rating improved each time
* He’s had 4 runs here but hasn’t done much
* He was Brought down in one and Unseated in another
* He was well beaten in the other two
* He has won just 1 of his last 22 races though
* I looked at his record in Chases with 16 + runners
* 3rd 8th BD 16th PU 8th 3rd 4th 4th
* That doesn’t inspire me too much
* I looked at his form over 3m 2f and more
* He’s run this far 5 times in the past
* He was Brought down in one of then in this race
* The other 4 runs saw defeats of 65 59 19 12 lengths
* Not convinced will Stay this far
* He does have a fair statistical chance
* I just don’t trust him to do the business

 

Shortlist

* ACROSS THE BAY passes all my main angles
* He’s won 3 times this season probably not ideal
* That doesn’t take much away from a competent profile
* His Chase record is 7 2 W W PU PU PU 2 UR 2 W
* He has only finished 4 of his 11 Chase runs
* I’d be slightly worried he lacks the substance to win
* Drying Ground could also be a potential issue
* There is a doubt about his stamina in the class
* His Sire’s had winners at 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* None have yet won over further than 3m 5f
* The two winners came in Class 3 and Class 5 races
* He has lots of positives as well though
* He is W W 2 7 W this season
* That “7th” had a genuine excuse in the Welsh National
* He’s had a wind operation which could also help
* Bottom line is he is shortlistable but maybe not 1st choice
* He is too big at 40/1 and more on Betfair

* CHICAGO GREY was brought down early in last years race
* He passes the important angles I like in this race
* CHICAGO GREY has to be considered a potential winner
* I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f chase
* He is well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes
* I do worry about his jumping which isn’t perfect
* Other than that there is a lot to like
* His trainer has a National Pedigree
* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race
* He certainly has the class but there are some worries
* Look at his career record in his 6 Handicap Chases
* He finished 4 of these losing by 25 38 51 50 lengths
* He Unseated rider and was brought down in another
* He has never ran well in a handicap chase before
* He started 20/1 9/1 20/1 4/1 9/4f 11/2f in these races
* He’s one of the best handicapped horses in the race
* CHICAGO GREY – It’s his jumping worrying me most
* It was fine last time but many times before it wasn’t

* COLBERT STATION – Shortlisting him at this stage
* Statistically he does not have a safe profile
* I have given him a free pass to the shortlist stage
* I have been very generous to do that
* I am not prepared to rule him out just yet
* I’m sure McCoy will ride him ahead of Sunnyhillboy
* I have to turn a blind eye to some of his failings
* At this stage its vital not to eliminate the winner
* I love his sire and he should relish the distance
* The fences are easier and the distance shortened
* It could be best to forgive his inexperience
* At this stage he is worth considering for a saver

* ROBERTO GOLDBACK passes my main angles
* He looks a very dangerous floater to me
* He does have a lot of weight with 11st 6lbs
* He also has a lot of smaller field form
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK has won in a 14 runner race
* He was kept wide though and I’m not convinced
* That said his owner bought him to run in this race
* He will either take to the race or he wont
* Not bad for a small bet around 40/1

* TEAFORTHREE has a lot of positives statistically
* He passes all my major angles for the race
* He is basically safe with a few niggles
* Not keen he was only a Novice Chaser last year
* That said so was the 1997 winner so its not a deal breaker
* I’d also worry about how he’s cope if its quick ground
* His last run was poor but that was excusable
* After the Hennessy and Welsh National
* He wanted a longer break before he ran at Haydock
* No Aintree form but neither had many past winners
* TEAFORTHREE deserves a place on the shortlist

* BALLABRIGGS won this race in 2011
* He was 6th last year but had a very weak profile
* He raced just once last season before the National
* He was only beaten 17 lengths into 6th place
* That’s a very credible run without more than 1 prep run
* He had some much fitter horses ahead of him last year
* He was just behind Sunnyhillboy -seabass – Cappa Blue
* BALLABRIGGS now looks fitter than them this year
* BALLABRIGGS has 3 runs this season 2 more than 2012
* Sunnyhillboy – seabass – Cappa Blue all have just two
* These 3 horses have a lot more weight this year
* BALLABRIGGS in contrast has 5lbs less weight
* He is 18lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy
* He is 13lbs better off with seabass
* He is 6lbs better off with Cappa Blue
* He has two more races this season
* Those 3 all had 2 fewer races this season
* I don’t see why he shouldn’t beat them and all of these
* I’d rather have him a bit younger and with another run
* He isn’t though and there are compensations
* One being so many here have 1-2 runs this season
* He’s done it before and will handle any ground
* He’s a safe jumper and I fancy him a lot this year
* I like the price but have to get over one thing
* His Age and weight with three runs this season
* Individually I don’t worry about his age or weight or runs
* Collectively when you combine all three I do
* I looked at horses older than 10 with 10st 12lbs in the race
* They had a 1-46 record in the last 16 renewals
* That was last years winner Neptune Collonges
* He was 11 and had 4 runs that season
* BALLABRIGGS is 12 and has 3 runs this season
* I have to wrestle with that but I have backed him

 

Shortlist Summary

ACROSS THE BAY – CHICAGO GREY
ROBERTO GOLDBACK -TEAFORTHREE
BALLABRIGGS – COLBERT STATION

My Final Selection

ROBERTO GOLDBACK 40/1 Win Bet

BALLABRIGGS 22/1 Win Bet

COLBERT STATION 12/1 Saver ( saver staked to roughly reclaim stake on other two if saver wins)

 

The odds above are from Betfair. Betdaq will offer about the same but are running a 0% commission offer for the Grand National.

If you prefer to go each way at a traditional bookmaker note that most offer five places. Beware a few tightwads who only offer four places. Bet Victor are worth noting due to them paying six places.

See live odds from multiple bookmakers

Best wishes
Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Mathematician Betting Christmas Newsletters

Welcome to members of the Mathematician Newsletter.
Christmas is approaching and to mark that  I have decided
to run a series of free newsletters for you in the run up to Christmas
or more specifically the Welsh National on Dec 27th.

Over the series of newsletters I hope I can give you some fresh
ideas that might add to your enjoyment of betting

There is also a more tangible offering of a Christmas discount on membership
for those of you seeking to upgrade yourself from free to full member status.

Today’s Newsletter

* Welsh Grand National
* Statistics in Betting
* Profiles – Precedents – Perspective
* A Negative about to run
* A Cheap Price Christmas Deal on Full Membership

I will try and persuade you to join Mathematician betting
but I also want to try and teach you a little about my approach to racing.
My hope is that some of it rubs off on you and benefits you longer term.
But in addition I plan to give you a few winners. I also plan to
talk about the work and analysis we do and why we do it
and when I can apply it to the racing I will. Hopefully I will
give you a couple of winners but my major aim in these
newsletters is to sort one of my favourite races out soon.

 
2012 Welsh  Grand  National

This is a big target race for the service and I will be doing
a lot of work on this race and I will try my best to find the
winner and my plan is to finish the Christmas newsletters with this.

 
Statistics In Betting

Many people talk about whether statistics work in finding
winners. There are lots of statistical punters out there but
many don’t see the value in that approach. That debate is
a red herring. It’s a waste of time. It’s the wrong question.

A Dictionary definition of Statistics

” The mathematics of the collection, organization and
interpretation of numerical data”

The key word there is interpretation. No two people look
at statistics in the same way. It’s too broad a description
and it’s meaningless. Many who dislike using statistics
are using them without even knowing. Many that do like
statistics are not using them properly anyway so as far
as I am concerned it’s a completely meaningless debate.

I myself however would fall firmly in the camp of believing that
it is better to be aware of the lessons history has to teach us
than to be operating completely blind to them.

 

Profiles – Precedents – Perspective

Each Day in my daily message I like to run profiles and
I will give you examples shortly. These profiles could be
individual horses or individual races. I like my bets to be
on horses that have profiles like other winners. If a horse
has won with a certain profile in similar races then I have
found a Precedent. If you find Precedents of horses that
win then you have got a far better perspective in the race.
I will give you an example in last Saturdays Hennessy.

Example One

Hennessy Gold Cup – BOBS WORTH Won 5/1

* Look at 7 year olds having their seasonal debut
* Take those 7 year olds that had Grade 1 form before
* Horses with that profile won 4 past Hennessy’s
* They won in 2001 2005 2007 2010
* Two of the 4 came from the RSA Chase as he does
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 National Hunt starts
* BOBS WORTH was a close match with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* We know 10 of the last 14 winners had 3-7 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH is ideal with 4 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH had a smart profile

Thats a simple example of a Good Profile. I told members
to back BOB’S WORTH in the Hennessy because I knew
there were several winners of the race with similar profiles.
I had Precedents and because of that a better perspective.

Example Two

A LITTLE SWIFTER Won 7/2

This was my only bet on Sunday and this was based on
a profile I discovered in a Mares Beginners Chase. These
races are very rare and not many will even think to look
at what sort of horses win these races. I put the time in
and I found a remarkable record from horses just like her.

* Horses that dropped from 2m 4f or more
* Having a run within 50 days
* Aged 5-6-7-8
* Completed their last race without falling
* Having between 8 and 15 National Hunt Starts
* There were 12 horses with this profile and 8 won
* They finished W W 3 W 2 W W F W W 3 W
* A LITTLE SWIFTER has this profile
* The 2004 2007 2008 2009 winners of this race had it
* Not bad when you consider the 2010 2011 were not run
* A LITTLE SWIFTER had to be my bet

The Profile gave me a Precedent and therefore Perspective
and a good priced winner as the only bet of the day. Don’t
get me wrong they don’t all win and I make mistakes and
misjudge things like everybody else but I don’t tip at short
prices and you can afford to do that with good results.

Example Three

ROLAND WON 11/2 ( Advised when 12/1)

This profile was found only yesterday and this is another
great example of the type of analysis this service offers.
The race was a 2yo selling race over a Mile. There aren’t
many people that would see this sort of race as one for
special study but in fact they are. The following analysis
was sent in the members email on Thursday at Lingfield.

* This is a 2yo seller over a Mile
* By far the best record are horses from 8f Nurseries
* Horses coming from 8f Handicaps
* Between 4 and 12 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* No previous wins before
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W 7 W 5 W 3 W W
* ROLAND shares that 5-8 record

Members have had these three profiles given to them
only in the last six days and all were advised as bets.
Analysis like it has kept us amongst the best racing
services in the game for many years. We are about
to enter our Thirteenth year and the proof of success
is that we rarely ever advertise for members. People
who join see the quality of this service and most of
our membership have joined through word of mouth.

 
N e x t   N e w s l e t t e r

A Negative Profile About to Run

I will do one in the next few days and will give you
an example of a Negative profile that has yet to run.
This horse should start favourite but I will show you
that win lose or draw this horse will be attempting
to do something that has “never been done before”.

 
Christmas Deal

As mentioned earlier I would like to offer you
the chance to buy yourself the Christmas present
of a test period of full membership of my service.

There are two key elements to this deal.

#1 – A significantly discounted first months fee.

#2 – An enhanced above normal no quibble refund Guarantee period.

In effect you can decide after Christmas if you believe the
service was worth paying for or not.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

I will speak to you again soon
Best Wishes

Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
—————————-

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips