The Spring Mile

Following on from a winner at 9/1 in the Gold Cup
George Guru won last week for us at about 13/8.

I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster  2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS  has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1  in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

 

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PS   I have further  full bets for full members today in the 6.05

So plenty of time to get them and get on if you wish to join up as a client proper.

See Here For More info ==> Betting Advice

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2012

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Betting Guru

L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPower–  BoyleSportss james – vc

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 24, 2012

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