N e w b u r y  3.10

PLANET OF SOUND 12/1

Each Way

Hennessy Gold Cup  N e w b u r y  3.10

A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.

5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.

* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too riSky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope

S h o r t l i s t

* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?

* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE  fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable

* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile

S e l e c t i o n

* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet

12 /1 at bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – sjames – Ladbrokes – VC

latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/

NB betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a bet365 4/1 + offer race  ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )

.

Posted under horse racing tips

S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

D o n c a s t e r   3.45

7/2 Cry Fury, 9/2 Sarrsar, 11/2 Eton Forever
6/1 Sooraah, 7/1 Man Of Action, 12/1 Casual Glimpse
12/1 Vainglory, 14/1 Crown Counsel, 16/1 Fareer
16/1 Mia4s Boy, 33/1 Just Bond, 100/1 Majuro.

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-103
* Doncaster have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 39 similar class 2 handicaps elsewhere
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None had 13 + career starts (0-24)
* CROWN COUNSEL fails that and looks wrong
* Horses aged 3 coming from 7f races won 2 races
* None had 9 or more career starts (0-16)
* CASUAL GLIMPSE fails that
* JUST BOND is on a career high mark in a class too high
* JUST BOND doesnt appeal aged 9 absent over a month
* MIA4S BOY is 7 and comes from a 7f race
* Thats not easy to do with just 3 runs this season
* There is a worry he has gone off the boil a little
* MAJURO is outclassed at the moment
* SOORAAH is a 4yo filly
* There was 1 winner like that in 39 races (1-18)
* That winner was exposed and she is not
* That winner had far more runs that year
* SOORAAH is too unsafe absent 43 days
* She isnt a negative but I prefer others
* The weight could be important here
* 17 past renewals and horses with 9st 5lbs + are 0-28
* SARRSAR has 9st 10lbs to carry more than all winners
* I found a few similar 4 year olds to him
* None won last time and none had his weight
* None of the 39 winners won with 9st 9lbs or more
* ETON FOREVER is a 4yo absent 87 days
* I have found 4 year old with a similar profile
* That was the 2009 winner of this race
* He also came from the Royal Hunt Cup
* ETON FOREVER looks interesting on that alone
* The 2009 winner did have 4 runs that season
* ETON FOREVER only has 3 runs
* The 2009 winner also had 15lbs less weight
* ETON FOREVER has 9st 10lbs and thats a problem
* We know None of the 39 winners carried that
* MAN OF ACTION is 4 with 1-2-3 runs this year
* The only winners with that profile had Group form
* He also has a months absence to overcome
* I would like more runs this season

S h o r t l i s t

* CRY FURY is very lightly raced down in trip
* I found a similar winner winning a similar race
* That horse didnt win last time and had less weight
* Hard to read him I wasnt completely convinced
* Besides that is it in his best interests to win this ?
* He has the Cambridgeshire as a target next time out
* He should easily make the race on his rating
* Wouldnt surprise me to see him 2nd or 3rd or 4th

* VAINGLORY has an acceptable profile
* I found 2 winners his age with similar profiles
* He has a tough mark but its not beyond him
* He is beginning to look like a small field horse
* This field will be small enough for him
* VAINGLORY comes from a good trial race
* He comes from the Goddard Stakes at York
* So did the winners in 1997 99 00 01 05 07 and 2010
* He is too big a price at 14/1

Selection

VAINGLORY 14/1 Each Way  s james    bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

N e w m a r k e t   2.05

11/4 Pekan Star, 7/2 Kirthill, 7/1 Licence To Till
8/1 Taqleed, 8/1 Tiger Reigns, 10/1 Classic Punch
10/1 Demolition, 12/1 Prince Of Johanne
16/1 Sour Mash, 25/1 Starkat, 33/1 World Heritage.

* This is a 10f Handicap in Class 2
* There are only 33 of these handicaps in August.
* SOUR MASH and STARKAT lack fitness
* WORLD HERITAGE doesnt appeal
* I want to take on PEKAN STAR the favourite
* Horses aged 4 won 16 of the 33 races
* None like PEKAN STAR had under 5 runs
* Those like him with 1-2 runs that year were 0-26
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-60
* PEKAN STAR fails all these angles
* He has much potential but he comes out badly
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE – Doesnt come out well enough
* TIGER REIGNS is an exposed 5yo from a 10f race
* I found 2 similar winners but they had 11lbs less weight
* DEMOLITION is underraced this season
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* CLASSIC PUNCH is a little underraced for an 8yo
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* I see him as unsafe but not out of it

S h o r t l i s t

* LICENCE TO TILL – Good profile if handling ground
* KIRTHILL has a decent profile
* TAQLEED is 4 with 5-12 runs and 1-2-3 that year
* I found 4 similar winners but all were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* TAQLEED was beaten a bit further than all of these
* I still respect him as he had excuses last time
* I hated his profile and he was eased once beaten
* He is priced up here on his last run
* Several of todays horses beat him that day
* Only just though and TAQLEED was favourite last time
* Excuses before that he shouldnt be 8/1
* TAQLEED each way looks a decent option

8/1 at various including bet 365,  Ladbrokes , Tote , Sky bet

Cheers Guy

PS Ladbrokes have just upped their new account free bet offer to £50 to tie in with the soccer season kicking off.  Knowing them this is a temporary thing and it will probably drop again to something smaller in the near future.

So if you don’t yet have a Ladbrokes account today might be a smart day to open one

Posted under horse racing tips

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

Posted under horse racing tips