S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

D o n c a s t e r   3.45

7/2 Cry Fury, 9/2 Sarrsar, 11/2 Eton Forever
6/1 Sooraah, 7/1 Man Of Action, 12/1 Casual Glimpse
12/1 Vainglory, 14/1 Crown Counsel, 16/1 Fareer
16/1 Mia4s Boy, 33/1 Just Bond, 100/1 Majuro.

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-103
* Doncaster have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 39 similar class 2 handicaps elsewhere
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None had 13 + career starts (0-24)
* CROWN COUNSEL fails that and looks wrong
* Horses aged 3 coming from 7f races won 2 races
* None had 9 or more career starts (0-16)
* CASUAL GLIMPSE fails that
* JUST BOND is on a career high mark in a class too high
* JUST BOND doesnt appeal aged 9 absent over a month
* MIA4S BOY is 7 and comes from a 7f race
* Thats not easy to do with just 3 runs this season
* There is a worry he has gone off the boil a little
* MAJURO is outclassed at the moment
* SOORAAH is a 4yo filly
* There was 1 winner like that in 39 races (1-18)
* That winner was exposed and she is not
* That winner had far more runs that year
* SOORAAH is too unsafe absent 43 days
* She isnt a negative but I prefer others
* The weight could be important here
* 17 past renewals and horses with 9st 5lbs + are 0-28
* SARRSAR has 9st 10lbs to carry more than all winners
* I found a few similar 4 year olds to him
* None won last time and none had his weight
* None of the 39 winners won with 9st 9lbs or more
* ETON FOREVER is a 4yo absent 87 days
* I have found 4 year old with a similar profile
* That was the 2009 winner of this race
* He also came from the Royal Hunt Cup
* ETON FOREVER looks interesting on that alone
* The 2009 winner did have 4 runs that season
* ETON FOREVER only has 3 runs
* The 2009 winner also had 15lbs less weight
* ETON FOREVER has 9st 10lbs and thats a problem
* We know None of the 39 winners carried that
* MAN OF ACTION is 4 with 1-2-3 runs this year
* The only winners with that profile had Group form
* He also has a months absence to overcome
* I would like more runs this season

S h o r t l i s t

* CRY FURY is very lightly raced down in trip
* I found a similar winner winning a similar race
* That horse didnt win last time and had less weight
* Hard to read him I wasnt completely convinced
* Besides that is it in his best interests to win this ?
* He has the Cambridgeshire as a target next time out
* He should easily make the race on his rating
* Wouldnt surprise me to see him 2nd or 3rd or 4th

* VAINGLORY has an acceptable profile
* I found 2 winners his age with similar profiles
* He has a tough mark but its not beyond him
* He is beginning to look like a small field horse
* This field will be small enough for him
* VAINGLORY comes from a good trial race
* He comes from the Goddard Stakes at York
* So did the winners in 1997 99 00 01 05 07 and 2010
* He is too big a price at 14/1

Selection

VAINGLORY 14/1 Each Way  s james    bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

N e w m a r k e t   2.05

11/4 Pekan Star, 7/2 Kirthill, 7/1 Licence To Till
8/1 Taqleed, 8/1 Tiger Reigns, 10/1 Classic Punch
10/1 Demolition, 12/1 Prince Of Johanne
16/1 Sour Mash, 25/1 Starkat, 33/1 World Heritage.

* This is a 10f Handicap in Class 2
* There are only 33 of these handicaps in August.
* SOUR MASH and STARKAT lack fitness
* WORLD HERITAGE doesnt appeal
* I want to take on PEKAN STAR the favourite
* Horses aged 4 won 16 of the 33 races
* None like PEKAN STAR had under 5 runs
* Those like him with 1-2 runs that year were 0-26
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-60
* PEKAN STAR fails all these angles
* He has much potential but he comes out badly
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE – Doesnt come out well enough
* TIGER REIGNS is an exposed 5yo from a 10f race
* I found 2 similar winners but they had 11lbs less weight
* DEMOLITION is underraced this season
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* CLASSIC PUNCH is a little underraced for an 8yo
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* I see him as unsafe but not out of it

S h o r t l i s t

* LICENCE TO TILL – Good profile if handling ground
* KIRTHILL has a decent profile
* TAQLEED is 4 with 5-12 runs and 1-2-3 that year
* I found 4 similar winners but all were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* TAQLEED was beaten a bit further than all of these
* I still respect him as he had excuses last time
* I hated his profile and he was eased once beaten
* He is priced up here on his last run
* Several of todays horses beat him that day
* Only just though and TAQLEED was favourite last time
* Excuses before that he shouldnt be 8/1
* TAQLEED each way looks a decent option

8/1 at various including bet 365,  Ladbrokes , Tote , Sky bet

Cheers Guy

PS Ladbrokes have just upped their new account free bet offer to £50 to tie in with the soccer season kicking off.  Knowing them this is a temporary thing and it will probably drop again to something smaller in the near future.

So if you don’t yet have a Ladbrokes account today might be a smart day to open one

Posted under horse racing tips

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

Posted under horse racing tips

Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Posted under horse racing tips