Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

In today’s free newsletter

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

 

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

The last time I ran a tipping comp here was back in April
and I vowed to myself not to do it again as it took me ages
to sort and settle entries submitted by email. But this time
I have done it a little bit easier for me with a simple web
form to collect entries. If this works ok we may just have
a few more of these competitions in future.

This is simple one race only competition with that race being
Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup.

You get to pick two horses.

On each is placed a £50 win bet and a £50 place
bet with odds settled according to betfair bsp for win and
place markets on the day of the race.

[Just think two horses for a £50 each way bet on each
but settled at betfair
exchange
odds instead of traditional each way ]

You can win full membership time here as a prize and we are
paying out on the top three places.

Here is the link to submit your entry.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/competition/hennessy.asp

It’s 100% free and you may win something so why not have
a pop.

 

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

During the week Guy provided full members here with some
early stats and thoughts with regards to the Hennessy.

Just incase you need a bit of inspiration yourself I thought
you may appreciate them. So I have copied them below for you.

 

A n t e P o s t

Newbury

Saturday 28th November

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase

 

[ Find latest Hennessy Odds here ]

I have looked at most of the fancied horses
with a bit more work to do on some of the others.

Today a full set of statistics for this race

Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967
Horses aged 10 should also be avoided
The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
Diamond Edge was the only 10yo winner in 43 years.
Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race

Horses aged 9 are 3-80 since 1992
Horses aged 9 won just 3 of the last 24 renewals
They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7 and 8 Chase starts
The other (Denman) was a rare 9yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-45
They won from official ratings of 174 139 145

Horses aged 8 are 4-75 since 1992
They had all had a race that season
Horses aged 8 first time out are 0-22 since 1992
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148

Horses aged 7 have a 11-111 record since 1992
The 10 winners had 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 runs this season
The 10 winners had 16 10 12 23 10 11 18 16 12 5 29 National Hunt runs
The 10 winners had 7 4 3 23 5 4 6 5 6 5 13 previous chase runs
They won from the following official ratings
151 160 156 150 161 151 145 137 136 142 149
The Perfect profile is a lightly raced 7yo debutant
There were 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 6 have a 5-49 record since 1992
Horses aged 6 and 7 are the ideal age for the race
The 5 winners aged 6 had 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 are best with a recent run
They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
The 5 winners aged 6 had 14 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had 11 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
One winner age 6 came from a Novice Chase (1993)
The following is an excellent profile
Male horses aged 6
Winning last time out
Running within 18 days
Having 8 or fewer Chase starts
3 horses had this profile
They finished W W W winning in 1994 2003 2004

Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
16-16-14-10-20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6-6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
Horses with 6-18 National Hunt runs do best
The last few winners had the following Chase races
7-11-4-14-3-12-23-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
12 of the last 19 winners had between 3-7 Chase starts
The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
0-8-0-5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
Horses with 0-1 Handicap runs do very well
Horses that were 1st-2nd last time score well
18 of the last 23 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
Three of the five that were not finished 3rd
Second-season chasers are the most interesting
They won 11 of the last 16 renewals
18 of the last 22 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
There were only 4 horses that did not
3 of these had Under 9 career starts
These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
Horses with No Grade 1-2 form should be lightly raced
I looked at horses that had raced that season
None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
Few Hennessey winners have Headgear
No past winner came from a Hurdles race
No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
I’d be wary of horses from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
The previous winner to do that was in 1980
It has been done but it is not ideal as a trial race

Early Conclusions

CONEYGREE is now a Non Runner
This means just a maximum of 20 can take part
It means it is quite a poor renewal this year
None of the 1-2-3-4 in last seasons RSA take place

Saphir Du Rheu – Hoping to find a better option
Smad Place – Stamina and a big world are worries
Bobs Worth – I can’t justify a 10 year old
The Druids Nephew – Stamina might beat him
The Young Master – Mild positive but a stamina issue
If In Doubt – Mild positive
Houblon Des Obeaux – Doesn’t offer enough
Valseur Lido – Can’t be discounted just yet
Theatre Guide – 25/1 + is value in a mixed profile

More detail on a few

VALSEUR LIDO

This is a 6yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
With 6 Chase starts I’d see him as a positive
He is a Second-season chaser which helps
This is a weak renewal as well
Much depends on his preparation
Is this a Genuine target or has he other plans
He is going to be second top weight
That would scare me off first time out
I also question his stamina as well

THEATRE GUIDE was 3rd in this 2 years ago
He has positives and negatives
But at the price he does look good value
In terms of his negatives he is a bit exposed
Has a few more runs than you would prefer
He is also going to fail my breeding statistics as well
There will come a time soon that his sire wins one of these
There some positives though
8 year olds need recent runs and he has that
He is strangely cost to the other 8yo winners
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 21 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 15 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148
THEATRE GUIDE has an official mark of 139
The weights going up suit him
When he was 3rd in this race in 2013 he had 10st 13lbs
He will be carrying much less weight this year

I hope to have a very short Hennessy shortlist
tomorrow. I do fancy one a lot but I have a very
annoying problem with him that won’t go away.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 25, 2015

Tags: ,

Hennessy Gold Cup

It’s a fascinating Hennessy Day and a Newbury and
Towcester dominated message for full members.
I thought Newcastle had a poor card and I wasn’t prepared
to play the cat and mousegame about whether it is on or off.
I have done most of the races at Newbury and Towcester for full members
so hoping for a good day.

For full members I have four highlighted bets today.
Here on the free blog I will post just one of them

I knew a few weeks ago that BOBS WORTH would be the
strongest profile in the Hennessy and that took the shine
off the race as he’s favourite. My angles push me his way.

I will go with BOBS WORTH in the big race. My stats
suggest he is the one but he doesn’t really need to be
there today.

Hennessy Gold Cup Newbury  3.10

I sent the Hennessy Analysis earlier in the week. My angles
clearly point to BOBS WORTH being the likely winner. That
will depend on several things. He has to handle the biggest
field of chasers he has yet encountered and I have to get it right with the negatives.
For an example the age statistics  have to be right about TIDAL BAY who is
2 years olds than all past winners. His chance increases for me as this is a far from  vintage Hennessy but his age puts me off.
There’s a good case for HOLD ON JULIO but I have opposed him  as his sires
record shows none have won over this far and 46 of the Sires 47 winners
came in at least 3 Grades lower and none have won in this class before.
I dont know it that is a very skillfull thing to do or a complete mistake but
he is not my choice becuase of it.
My statistics suggest that THE PACKAGE should have competed in a higher
grade after so many runs if he was to have the class.
I have to be right about several more as well.
BOBS WORTH has the strongest profile and because of that is my selection.

* FRISCO DEPOT – Not quite right but has positives
* FIRST LIEUTENANT – Wont surprise me if he is the one
* BOBS WORTH is the selection

Selection

Win BOBS WORTH 5/1 at various including Paddy Power bet365

If betting each way on this race today note that sky bet365 and Paddy Power
are all offering 5 places instead of the usual four.

 

Hennessy Gold Cup Statistics

* Horses with 6-18 career starts do best
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 14-3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Two of the four that were not finished 3rd
* I looked at horses that had raced that season
* None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* Second-season chasers have the best recent record
* They have won 9 of the last 13 renewals
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-44
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* Few hennessy winners have headgear
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-50
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 1, 2012

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Racing Tip For Chepstow

A good effort  last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from betfred as

#1 – Their best odds guarantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 – The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second so you would have been left with just a winning place bet.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and something for Chepstow.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

You need to think long term over many bets not just “on the day” however.

More detail on that thinking at a future point perhaps.

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C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

Nb Want to play it differently yourself the above is a potential leg of an each way double. Full members have been advised of a suitable second horse for that. As ever we are hampered with not wanting to annoy full members by puting too much up here on the free blog.

For more info on the full service click here Betting Advice

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Hennessy Gold Cup Tip

N e w b u r y  3.10

PLANET OF SOUND 12/1

Each Way

Hennessy Gold Cup  N e w b u r y  3.10

A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.

5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.

* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too risky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope

S h o r t l i s t

* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?

* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE  fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable

* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile

S e l e c t i o n

* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet

12 /1 at bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – sjames – Ladbrokes – vc

latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/

NB betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a bet365 4/1 + offer race  ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Hennessy Betting Advice

The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

Best Wishes

Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races