Eider Chase Ante Post Preview

Below is a bit of early analysis Guy sent to full members yesterday.

The Future Betting Angles sub section of his daily full member messages

contains regular bits and bobs of ante post related thought.

Yesterday his eyes were fixed on the Eider Chase.

I guess you could consider this phase one early work.

He will dig deeper into the race closer to the off.

It was an easy snippet to copy and paste up here

so I thought I would share it with you in case you had any interest in the race yourself.

 


Ante Post

Saturday February 23rd

Newcastle

EIDER CHASE

Daklondike 10/1 Ballydine 12/1 Calett Mad 12/1
Folsom Blue 12/1 Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1 Skipthescales 12/1 Baywing 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1 Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Back To The Thatch 12/1 Beware The Bear 12/1
Big River 14/1 The Last Samuri 14/1 Yala Enki 14/1
Cogry 14/1 Dinnie's Vinnie 16/1 Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1 Sharp Response 16/1 Missed Approach16/1
Just Your Type 16/1 West of The Edge 16/1 Takingrisks 16/1
Raz de Maree 20/1 Geronimo 20/1 Rock On Fruity  20/1
Vicente 20/1 Harry The Viking 20/1 Otago Trail 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1 Kimberlite Candy 20/1 Progress Drive  25/1
Lovely Job 25/1 Regal Flow 25/1 Zerachiel 25/1
Prime Venture 25/1 Donna's Diamond 25/1 Potters Corner 25/1
Little Bruce 33/1 Chic Name 33/1 Morney Wing 33/1
Sideways  33/1 Total Assets 33/1 Courtown Oscar 33/1
Shelford 33/1 Mysteree 33/1 Two Smokin Barrels 40/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1 Court Frontier 50/1 Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


4m Handicap Chase

One of my favourite races

52 horses are entered in this

Running plans not yet clear

Today I want to eliminate a few

Coming from different blocks of horses



UNLIKELY TO RUN

Based on recent renewals
The following horses are rated too low
And probably will not make the cut

Total Assets 33/1
Sideways  33/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1
Court Frontier 50/1
Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


AGE

Horses aged 14 + have never won
The last winner aged 13 was 1987
The last winner aged 12 was 1995

14 year olds

Raz de Maree 20/1 is rejected
Harry The Viking 20/1 is rejected

12 year olds

Handicap Chases since 1998
Any Time of year
3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Look at horses aged 12 or more
They have a miserable 1-188 record
That was Amberleigh House in the National

Regal Flow 25/1 is a 12yo
Folsom Blue 25/1 is a 12yo


NUMBER OF CHASE RUNS

Past winners
Had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

If you look at the last 16 winners
15 of these had under 14 career starts

The following horses
All look exposed and vulnerable

Number of Chase runs

39 Harry The Viking
35 Morney Wing
31 Raz de Maree
30 Folsom Blue
29 Cogry
26 Dinnie's Vinnie
25 Regal Flow
24 Rock On Fruity
23 Court Frontier
23 West of The Edge
22 Yala Enki
20 Vicente
19 The Last Samuri


OFFICIAL RATINGS

All past winners since 1997
Were rated 140 or lower

Yala Enki is rated 156
Tough ask when short of runs
Otago Trail 20/1 is rated 152
Beware The Bear 12/1 is rated 151
He will fail breeding stats as well
Daklondike is rated 148
Thats 8lbs more than all past winners
He is not the best aged anyway as a 7yo
You can argue he is underraced this season
Baywing 12/1 is rated 147
I see him as underraced explained later
Calett Mad 12/1 is rated 147
Thats far more than all past winners
Not safe as a 7yo with an absence
Missed Approach 16/1 is rated 145
He has raced just once this season


RUNS THIS SEASON

If you look at past winners
How many races they had ran
Since August 1st that season
They had 4 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6 runs

In the last at 19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners had 3 + runs that year
19 of the 19 winners had 2 + runs that year

Horses rejected
With just 1 run this season

Missed Approach 16/1
Zerachiel 25/1
Courtown Oscar 33/1

Horses rejected
With just 2 runs this season

Kilcullen Flem
Big River
Harry The Viking
Vicente
Baywing
Beware The Bear
The Last Samuri
Lovely Job
Yala Enki
Progress Drive

INEXPERIENCED

Past winners had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
No winners had under 5 chase starts

Just Your Type 16/1 has 3 chase runs
Skipthescales 12/1 has 2 chase runs


OTHER OBJECTIONS

Don't want to risk a horse
Out of form and not running well enough
This pair look vulnerable on this angle
Shelford 33/1
Mysteree 33/1

Back To The Thatch 10/1

He may be the ante post favourite
But there are breeding stats against him

Worries me his sire is Westerner

Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-55 record over 3m 2f and more
Back To The Thatch fails this statistic

Little Bruce is 7 years old
Only 2 winners aged 7 won since 1997
Horses aged 7 won in 1998 and 2012
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
Little Bruce does not do that

This leaves the following horses
Who have not yet failed a major angle
Several of these will not be running

Early Shortlist

Ballydine 12/1
Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1
Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1
Sharp Response 16/1
Takingrisks 16/1
Geronimo 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1
Kimberlite Candy 20/1
Prime Venture 25/1
Donna's Diamond 25/1
Potters Corner 25/1
Chic Name 33/1
Two Smokin Barrels 40/1

Can pick this up again soon

Feels a race we can get sorted

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 15, 2019

Tags: ,

Aintree Horse Betting Advice

Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at stan james

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips