Carlisle 9.35 - AMIR PASHA 14/1 Tote Win Bet
Carlisle 9.35 - UNAWATUNA (Saver 4/1) bet365

In the last race at Carlisle we have an emigma of a race.
I have brilliant trends in the race and they are demanding I bet here but the best horse UNAWATUNA is weak statistically and throws up a real dilemma. UNAWATUNA is the best horse and should win
yet I cant find a similar horse win a similar race and convincing myself to commit to her is like convincing Osama Bn Laden to eat a Pork Chop.

With AMIR PASHA high on my list in the race I have decided to have a saver on UNAWATUNA and buy her out of the race. AMIR PASHA is the only other horse I could bet.

CARLISLE 9.35

CFM RADIO ESCALA LIVE HERE TONIGHT
MAIDEN HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-65) 2m1f52y

11/4 Beauchamp Wonder, 11/4 Saxona, 9/2 Unawatuna,
13/2 Trempari, 12/1 Amir Pasha, 12/1 Roisin’s Prince,
16/1 Dawn Wind, 20/1 Uptown Lad, Countrywide Sun,
25/1 Dance Sauvage, 33/1 Art Gallery, 33/1 Sea Cove.

* This is a 17f Handicap for 0-62 rated horses
* July has seen 127 similar races between 2m and 19f
* There has been 550 handicaps between 2m and 19f
* Thats 550 handicaps in Class 5 and 6 at Any time of year
* These are every low grade 2m + staying handicap in the season
* Look at Horses from Maidens in these races
* They won just 9 of the 550 races
* When they came from maidens over 13f or shorter they flopped
* These types had a 1-132 record
* That horse ( Three Eagles) doesnt really count anyway
* Between his maiden run he ran in a Novice Hurdle.
* BEAUCHAMP WONDER has to be avoided on that stat
* She is a Filly from a 10f maiden with just 3 runs
* TREMPARI has to go from a 12f maiden
* SAXONA has to go as a mare from a 12f maiden
* SEA COVE wont be fit as a 9yo mare with 2 runs this year
* She has a 0-26 career record and looks outclassed
* ART GALLERY has a 0-25 record and looks poor
* DANCE SAUVAGE hasnt won in 27 races
* He was beaten 69 lengths last time out
* He looks a very poor animal who shouldnt trouble the judge
* COUNTRYWIDE SUN has ran just twice since 2008
* Both runs were heavy defeats
* He doesnt look in good enough form
* UPTOWN LAD finished well beaten last time out
* Horses like him beaten 10 + lengths last time did win races
* Those aged 9 or more were just 1-81
* UPTOWN LAD is a 10 year old and best known as a chaser
* He looks an unlikely winner
* I cant see a case for DAWN WIND
* Not as a 4yo filly with a miserable record
* ROISIN´S PRINCE has ran twice at long trips
* He placed over 2 miles at Southwell in January
* That offers hope he will stay but its not conclusive
* His sire (Bold Fact) is 0-61 with all runners at 10f and more
* Thats a massive worry for as horse racing over 17f +
* The added worry is he is a small horse on a stiff track
* He has twice ran poorly over hurdles recently
* It does require a leap of faith to bet him over this far

SHORTLIST

AMIR PASHA
UNAWATUNA

* AMIR PASHA stared his 3yo career for W Swinburn
* He lost his first 6 races and went hurdling
* Since then he has twice come back to the flat
* At Musselburgh in April he was 3rd in a 0-70 handicap
* If he repeats that he could win
* He hasnt ran too badly since over hurdles
* I like that he is unexposed and in a very weak race
* AMIR PASHA has a chance here
* UNAWATUNA offers a real dilemma
* On the Positive side she has the best form in the race
* She stays all day and has achieved more in 7 runs than anything here
* She is lightly raced and has more improvement than anything
* She looks simply better than her awful rivals
* On the downside there are serious statistical worries
* She is a filly with just 1 run this year and a break of 57 days
* Fillies aged 4 with 1 run that year were 0-16 in the 127 races
* Few were fancied though but its a worry
* The lighter raced you are the more you can forgive
* UNAWATUNA offers a genuine dilemma in such a poor race

SELECTION - UNAWATUNA 14/1 Tote

SAVER - AMIR PASHA bet365

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD 6.20

11/2 Bateleur, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Plumage, 10/1 Dualagi,
10/1 Mr Skipiton, 10/1 Sherjawy, 14/1 Charlie Delta, 14/1
Rhapsilian, 16/1 Hollow Jo, Keep Dancing, 20/1 Kingsgate
Castle,25/1 C’Mon You Irons, 25/1 Calypso Girl, 33/1 Ejeed, 33/1 Scruffy Skip.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There has been 120 similar races in June

High Drawn horses have a massive advantage over this Course
and Distance. The last few handicaps here over this trip with 9 or more runners have seen the winning stalls drawn as follows. 10-10 , 7-9 , 9-9 , 9-9 , 13-13 , 12-14. I wouldnt entertain a low drawn horse. I would oppose KEEP DANCING - SHERJAWY C´MON YOU IRONS are all drawn in the bottom 4 stalls and KINGSGATE CASTLE is also badly drawn. There are several of these that dont look fit or ready to win. I’d argue this includes SCRUFFY SKIP and EJEED. HOLLOW JO is out with a long absence as an older horse. MR SKIPITON is out having a nasty absence and also a step up in trip. Whilst he has a good draw CHARLIE DELTA doesnt look ready to win. He’s exposed and has a big weight and has hasnt ran wellenough this year to think he can win without more runs. I am ruling out CALYPSO GIRL a filly from a 3yo handicap. You can give both DUALAGI and
RHAPSILIAN chances but no more than that and in an 18 runner race neither are well drawn in stalls 6 and 8 and I dont want a Mare from a bad draw. I feel there are 3 runners in this race.

PLUMAGE - BATELEUR - ANOTHER TRY

We backed PLUMAGE last night and she dissapointed but it
was a better race last night with far more improvers and she is very fit. It will be very annoying if she wins. I would also want to shortlist ANOTHER TRY. He has just won at Southwell and is a lightly raced horse. He won a poor race on sand and you wouldnt fancy the horses he beat in this race and he was 18/1 and has no form on Grass at all. He is lightly raced and well drawn though. Statistically he is only average and not many winners come from the sand in these races and he is a hard horse to judge. It depends on what he thinks of the grass. BATELEUR has the outstanding profile. Couldnt fault it at all and unless there is a deluge of rain tonight I think he’s the one.

SELECTION - BATELEUR Best Price 11/4 Corals

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM  4.40

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)
(5yo+,0-140) 3m1f110y

Cheltenham 4.40

PRETTY STAR  £30 Each Way 25/1
BOWLEAVES £20 Each Way 25/1

Pretty Star is 25/1 with Tote-betfred - Hills -Ladbrokes
Pretty Star is 25/1 with Skybet -Blue Square - Paddy P
Bowleaves is 25/1 with Skybet -betfred -Boyles -bet365
Bowleaves is 22/1 with Corals -VC - Tote

Above prices valid at time of send to full members
For current odds see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/thursday/4-40

7/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Shouldhavehadthat, 9/1 Aggie’s Lad, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, 12/1 Newbay Prop, 14/1 High Chimes, 16/1 Character Building, 20/1 Bowleaze, 20/1 Double Dizzy, 20/1 Go For One, 20/1 Irish Raptor, 22/1 Oodachee, 25/1 Arteea, 25/1 Butler’s Cabin, 25/1 Ice Tea, 25/1 Le Duc, 25/1 Le Toscan, 25/1 Pretty Star, 25/1 Sherwoods Folly, 33/1 Alright Now M’Lad, 33/1Brooklyn Breeze, 33/1 Openide, 40/1 Without A Doubt, 50/1 Warpath.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* ARTEEA is out aged 10 absent 383 days
* Thats too much to do with 11st 12lbs
* Look at the 65 handicap chases at the festival
* Only 3 winners had 11st 8lbs or more in a 3-125 record
* Of those all 56 horses that came from Graded races lost
* ARTEEA fails that and is rejected
* CHARACTER BUILDING also fails that
* No handicap chase at the festival went to his type
* A Horse with 11st 8lbs unplaced last time out
* HIGH CHIMES also fails that and has 11st 12lbs
* In 65 Handicaps no horse had 11st 8lbs or more like him
* None were as inexperience or lost by as far as him last time
* ICE TEA fails the same statistics
* He has 11st 11lbs and didnt place last time out
* With his absence he looks opposable
* SHERWOODS FOLLY technically fails that as well
* He has 11st 8lbs and Pulled up last time
* No Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase went that way
* None went to a horse unplaced last time with that weight
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHERWOODS FOLLY is trying to become the first
* BUTLER´S CABIN also fails the same statistic
* There must be a chance he is being targeted at the National
* His weight and Absence also looks a problem
* He ought to need the run today and isnt for me
* I am oppisng exposed horses with 1 run this season
* None of the 65 Festival Handicaps went that way
* No horse won with 1 run that year when exposed
* None managed it with a months absence either
* WITHOUT A DOUBT fails that and is rejected
* LE DUC is out as exposed and having 1 run this year
* He comes from a Hunter Chase as well
* No Handicap at this festival went to a Hunter Chase runner
* WARPATH looks impossible to fancy
* OPENIDE looks very hard to fancy at the moment
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-55 record in this race
* BROOKLYN BREEZE fails that and is rejected
* He comes from a Hunter Chase and no horse did that
* No Hunter Chaser has won a Festival Handicap before
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT is also out aged 11
* In 65 handicap chases over any trip at this festival
* Only 7 horses won aged 11 or more
* None of these defied a months break as he does
* LE TOSCAN comes from a Graduation Chase
* Horses not from handicaps were 0-42 in this race
* LE TOSCAN also has a 118 day break
* I looked at all 65 handicap chases at the festival
* No horse had 7 weeks off without coming from a handicap
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT comes from a Novice Handicap
* Horses that came from Novice races in this race were 0-42
* I looked at Novice Handicap Chasers in 65 Cheltenham races
* In the 65 races No horse won coming from a Novice Handicap
* All 19 lost and none managed a 1-2-3 placing in them
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT also has a 73 day absence
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In every handicap chase run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43) as he tries to
* Those that won last time out as he did were 0-41
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* The only 7yo winners of this race ran within a month
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT fails that as well
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT has a lot to prove for me
* ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD has 11st 7lbs and an 8 week break
* In 65 English handicaps horses absent 7 weeks struggled
* Those like him with 11st or more were 2-88
* He doesnt look to be in good enough for for this
* BOWLEAZE has a similar problem
* He has a 11st 3lbs and a 96 day break
* OODACHEE has a very hard task
* He is absent 166 days yet a 10 year old and exposed
* He also has 11st 5lbs and steps up from 2m 4f
* AGGIE´S LAD was beaten 80 lengths in a Beginners Chase
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* That would be a big problem for me
* I am sure he is underpriced as he is trained by A Martin
* Irish runners have a miserable record in this as well
* GO FOR ONE has a lot of weight with 11st 5lbs
* In this race horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 3-101
* None were aged 10 or more as he is
* Those like him running within 7 weeks were 1-79
* He may just be handicapped a bit high
* NEWBAY PROP pulled up in this race last year
* He probably has a better chance this year
* He doesnt look to be that well handicapped
* An absence and his weight wont make it easy
* The 15 renewals of this race are interesting
* Horses that came from 22f or shorter were 1-63
* Thats a big worry for some horses in this race
* BUTLER´S CABIN -ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD
* OODACHEE -WARPATH -AGGIE´S LAD fail that
* Course winners have a weak 1-75 record in 15 years
* HIGH CHIMES -BUTLER´S CABIN -OPENIDE fail that
* IRISH RAPTOR -LE DUC ALEXANDERTHEGREAT fail that
* Exosed horses (21+ runs) with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-37
* ARTEEA -BUTLER´S CABIN -BUTLER´S CABIN fail that
* WITHOUT A DOUBT -LE DUC -BROOKLYN BREEZE do
* Exposed horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out score badly
* They have a poor 1-59 record
* OODACHEE -BOWLEAZE- LE DUC fail that
* BROOKLYN BREEZE also fails that
* No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season
* All 40 that tried lost in this race
* HIGH CHIMES - ARTEEA -WITHOUT A DOUBT fail that
* LE DUC - NEWBAY PROP -BROOKLYN BREEZE also fail that
* All 38 horses that came from a Novice race lost
* The following horses all fail this
* AGGIE´S LAD - SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT -POKER DE SIVOLA

POSSIBLES

* POKER DE SIVOLA has been the big gamble
* POKER DE SIVOLA is a 6 year old
* Horses aged under 7 like him are 0-19 in this race
* He also comes from a race that wasnt a handicap
* All past 15 winners of this came from a handicap
* In 65 Festival Handicaps only 6 winners were under 7 years old
* They struggled in the 3m handicaps (1-31)
* No horse that age were unplaced last time as he was
* Its a lot to do for a horse with 11st 3lbs in weight
* Especially for a horse with just 5 chase starts
* IRISH RAPTOR was unlucky last time crashing into a rail
* He is on a winning handicap mark from a top stable
* I wouldnt rule him out in this race but the jockey worries me
* He has just 4 rides and a Hunter Chase win and never ridden here
* IRISH RAPTOR may also be a small field horse
* DOUBLE DIZZY also has a lot of weight
* I dont think he is completely out of this
* I cant find a similar enough winner though

SELECTIONS

PRETTY STAR

* PRETTY STAR is pretty interesting
* He has a very similar profile to the 1998 and 2000 winners
* He also comes from the same prep race as the 1998 winner
* He comes from the same Ludlow Handicap 14 days ago
* His chance may depend on whether he has anything in hand
* PRETTY STAR has to be shortlisted

BOWLEAZE is almost statistically perfect but one or two
minor flawes but I forgive him that. He is from a stable that excel in this race. He is best fresh and several recent winners had his profile and I give him a massive chance in this race.

Venetia Williams may well prefer Alexanderthegreat to her
other runners one of whom I like a lot in PRETTY STAR.
You can argue that on the form of their last race its easier to prefer Alexanderthegreat - and I do think he is a danger but I disagree that he should be the stable choice and feel there are good reasons to prefer PRETTY STAR.

Posted under Major Horse Races