I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay

SELECTION - GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 2.10 - ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  betfred - bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE - I have found 2 similar winners

JEER - I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER - Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

SOUTHWELL 1.50

Toteexacta The Better Value Forecast Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  6f

5/2 Ingleby Arch, 7/2 Felday, 4/1 Esprit De Midas,
9/2 Confuchias, 6/1 Flowing Cape, 33/1 Indian Skipper.

This is a classy 6f handicap for 0-101 rated horses and we
have had 28 similar races at this time of year. Considering
the class of the race INDIAN SKIPPER shouldnt be able to
win from a seller.   GREAT CHARM  comes from a 0-75 in
Class 5 to a 0-101 in Class 2 and thats a stiff jump in class that may find him out. ESPRIT DE MIDAS has to go as a
3yo absent 200 days. No 3 year old had that absence and
none came from a 3yo handicap either. FLOWING CAPE
may not have done enough last time. Look at horses in the
28 races that were beaten 10 lengths or more last time out
you find older horses like FLOWING CAPE having a 0-43
record. I can give INGLEBY ARCH a chance but he has a
45 day absence. No horse aged 6 or more won when absent
over a month or more so statistically he does have question
marks to answer. CONFUCHIAS has one of those difficult
to read profiles and is respected but he has never run here
at Southwell. Neither has FELDAY but he has the strongest
profile for me because of the following.

* Horses from 7f Handicaps running within 7 weeks
* Finishing 1-2-3 last time out
* No Form in Group Class before
* 6 or more runs this season
* The record of all horses with that profile were 6-11
* They finished W 8 W 5 W 2 7 W 3 W W
* Horses aged 3 in that group had a 3-4 record
* FELDAY has the best profile for me

Felday now currently best priced 9/4 betfred, Ladbrokes, Sky

Posted under horse racing tips

Chester 3.20

BENEDICTE  £50 Win Bet 7/4 +
( 2/1 available at betfred )

CRABBIES ALCOHOLIC GINGER BEER
MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES(CLASS 4) (3yo+)  1m2f75y

9/4 Crazy Chris, 5/2 Benedicte, 3/1 Nesayem, 6/1 Amroth,
12/1 Triple Cee, 50/1 Sacco D’Oro, 66/1 Amber Glow.

This is an all aged Maiden for fillies. There has been about 29 races like this at this time of year. Unraced horses were 0-46 so SACCO D´ORO is rejected. I dont want any horse beaten 10 lengths or more last time. They’ve a 1-27 record. AMBER GLOW would’ve failed that in a bumper last time out. Its very Interesting that 28 of the 29 winners were 3  year olds. Older horses have a poor 1-47 record. I’d worry CRAZY CHRIS is an older horse and that he has to give 6lbs to 4 Three year olds. It wouldnt be a surprise if one was too strong for her. The following is interesting

* September-October has 380 all aged maidens
* Thats 380 maidens at every and any distance
* Older Fillies like CRAZY CHRIS have a 6-391 record
* Those with under 4 career runs are 0-188
* Those with under 2 runs that season are 0-136

Those stats are not as great as they sound as many of
them were not fancied but it raises great doubts about
CRAZY CHRIS’s ability to give weight away and I’d
be looking for an alternative. AMROTH doesnt have
any major flaws I can see. BENEDICTE was expensive
and you can bet she wasnt at her best last time out and
had a quiet introduction. I don’t want TRIPLE CEE as
horses from 3yo handicaps were 0-24 and she comes
down from 13f to 10f and I see her as unsafe. I would
look to AMROTH as one of the potential winners but
BENEDICTE looked quite an interesting runner. Very
well bred half sister to Amadeus Wolf and I think she
will improve a lot on her second run. NESAYEM  sets
the benchmark coming from Handicaps rated 67. She
sets a reasonable standard and will be able to draw on
her experience here. What draws me to BENEDICTE
is the fact NESAYEM whilst attractive statistically
couldnt beat Pyrus Time two runs ago at Lingfield
and that horse has a 0-14 record and was beaten in
a seller yesterday and is exposed and I think I should
give the chance to BENEDICTE to improve past her.

Posted under horse racing tips