A snippet from Guy’s much longer message for today is below.

You can visit the main site direct by clicking this link ==> Racing Tips

LINGFIELD 3.40

View Our 2011 Fixtures At lingfieldpark.co.uk
Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 6f

100/30 Perfect Act, 4/1 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Five Star Junior
6/1 Breathless Kiss, 6/1 Sioux Rising, 8/1 Vintage
10/1 Green Manalishi, 12/1 The Scorching Wind.

This is another 6f handicap but a classier 0-92 race and
there are 188 similar races. THE SCORCHING WIND is
underraced at the moment and comes out badly coming
down from a Mile. GREEN MANALISHI looks to have
problems aged 10 coming up in distance and doing that
without a recent race. Mares like SIOUX RISING from
7f races and 9 or more runs were 0-48 and that’s why I
feel she is opposable. ANNE OF KIEV is a mare coming
from a 6f handicap without a recent run with a fortnight.
Thats not a safe profile. I found 7 winners doing it but
all 7 of these had form in at least a Class 3 race before
and she doesn’t. Most of the mares that won were also
younger and her lack of backclass means I can’t match
her to any winners. Throw in a rise in the weights for
being beaten and she’s now 7lbs higher than her highest
winning mark and in a Class she has never tasted before
and I have my concerns with ANNE OF KIEV. I think
VINTAGE is shortlistable but he has been off longer at
31 days than most others and I felt there were stronger
runners especially as he has never won in this class and
not from his handicap mark.

BREATHLESS KISS – Shaky profile but just ok
PERFECT ACT – Solid profile but a tough handicap mark
FIVE STAR JUNIOR – Good profile and likes small fields

SELECTION

FIVE STAR JUNIOR Each Way 4/1 Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD has been abandoned and with it any realistic
chance of a bet today. That leaves us with only Southwell
and a small card of 6 races and very little choice today as
the weather has beaten every other meeting on the day.

Many of you will want a bet. Many will want to leave the
day alone and get some other things done. There is not an offical
bet today.

I have looked at all 6 Southwell races for Full Members
and have one up here on the free betting blog.
I will  leave it up to you whether you want to get involved. I
dont want to bother myself especially as non runners now
seem certain to damage most of these races presumably as
many stables are having travel problems.

I dont see why I shouldnt have a good chance in the 12.30
and 1.00pm races much as these are smaller fields. The big
factor in the 1.35pm is whether I can beat the favourite so
hard to know what my chances are there. The 2.05pm has
now been reduced to 7 runners and thats typical as I’d argue
possibly my most interesting bet was JOHANNESGRAY as
an each way bet around 5/1. Thats lost now but I still think he
is as good a bet as any on the day. I like my 2.40pm bet but
so do others and the price could have been better.
The last race has got under my skin and I am far from certain
I have got that right. Both non runners were big negatives so
things have conspired against me there and I feel week here.

Those that want several bets just follow the message through to
the end with small stakes. Those wanting one bet perhaps a win
bet on JOHANNESGRAY offers the best option as he is a
reasonably good price. Those wanting a day off wont be
missing anything and I wouldnt blame you for sweving things.

SOUTHWELL 2.05

Toteswinger Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

11/4 Bonnie Prince Blue, 7/2 Silaah, 5/1 Dark Lane
5/1 Everymanforhimself, 7/1 Johannesgray
12/1 Yankee Storm, 14/1 Italian Tom, 16/1 Silver Wind.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* There are 101 similar races at this time of year

ITALIAN TOM has a better profile than you might think
as a 3yo from a 5f race but the only winner winning his age
had more backclass and he has all his wins at 5f and now has
a career high mark and he looks unsafe. SILVER WIND isn’t
running well enough at the moment and does not offer me enough
considering he has no Southwell form. I would have to take on
BONNIE PRINCE BLUE. Not a big negative at
all but there are better profiles. EVERYMANFORHIMSELF
is also avoided as no similar horse came from claimers and
he has no Southwell form. That is a very weak list of horses to avoid
and that tells me despite the small field its far too  open a race to take
a confident view in.

POSSIBLES

SILAAH is hard to read as an older horse coming from a 5f
handicap a few days ago. I ran his profile carefully and found all horses
with very close profiles had a 1-4 record with that winner having much
less weight. He is hard to decide about. The issue with DARK LANE
is that he has only had 2 runs this season. To my surprise I did find a 4yo
winner like him so I’d make him a Positive much as it doesnt feel ideal and
I should mention his draw. There has been 46 handicaps here this year
and only 1 winner came from stall 1 and its not an ideal draw.
JOHANNESGRAY can’t be ruled out and I found 1 similar 3 year
old winner coming from a 5f race. There is a chance YANKEE STORM
could win this as I have found  two similar winners. He has had many
chances to win here off similar marks but has failed. His only wins here
were in two grades lower and off lower marks so he might just find one
or two better treated at the weights these days. I have 4 shortlisted and
given the choice  JOHANNESGRAY looks the best option with less
to prove and more improvement.

Selection -  JOHANNESGRAY 5/1 VC

Posted under horse racing tips

We head off to Ascot this week for our free Saturday horse racing tip.

This is just a small extract from a much more comprehensive analysis of todays racing we provide to full members over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

ASCOT 3.10

Carey Group Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m1f

7/2 Woolcombe Folly, 4/1 Cockney Trucker, 9/2 Noble Alan
7/1 Consigliere, 7/1 Pickamus, 7/1 Tatenen, 15/2 King Edmund 20/1 Piraya.

This is a Class 2 Handicap Chase. I looked at the 58 similar Class 2 Handicaps in November between 2m and 2m 2f to get an idea of what has been winning these races. Horses in 58 races that dropped from 2m 5f or more with 1 run that season were 0-21 and that puts me off TATENEN. I dont think PICKAMUS or KING EDMUND did enough last time
out. The issue with COCKNEY TRUCKER apart from the
ground possibly being too soft is his absence. I have found  an 8yo Novice Chase winner like him but that horse had a far more recent run and won a Cheltenham race and he has only won a Huntingdon Chase and 63 days ago and that is not enough for me. I dont fancy PIRAYA at 2 Miles first
time out. He drops 14f in distance and got round at Aintree
in the Grand National so 2m first time out is asking a lot.
I looked at seasonal debutants with 13 or more career starts and those without form in a Grade 1 race had a 1-20 record. Thats something CONSIGLIERE faces and considering that winner had far less weight and he starts the year on a stiff rating I think CONSIGLIERE is up against it first time out. WOOLCOMBE FOLLY is 7 coming from a Novice Chase
last season. Horses with that profile and at least 9 runs like him had a 1-3 record. These 3 horses finished W 2 3 and it makes WOOLCOMBE FOLLY a positive much as the one
winner in that came from 2m 5f and he doesnt.

NOBLE ALAN has a decent profile

* Horses aged 7
* Won a Handicap Chase last time out
* 1 or 2 runs this season
* Form in a Grade 1 race before
* Coming from 17f or shorter
* Horses with that profile had a 5-8 record
* They finished W W 4 W 2 W 2 W

Selection Noble Alan 4/1 at various inc Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365 , PaddyPower

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 2.35

bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 bet365 – Coral – VC

Posted under horse racing tips

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including betfred, bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips