Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION - MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , bet365

Best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

Thanks for positive comments received about last weekend’s 12/1 winner hardball.

Glad to see some of you reinvesting a portion of your winnings in a membership of my private service.

This free blog carries just a tiny tiny fraction of the full member advice.

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 11/2  Coral William Hill VC
Win Bet

BOLODENKA is 11/2  but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently - Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION - BOLODENKA

Posted under horse racing tips

SOUTHWELL 12.55

Dine In The Pantry Restaurant Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-55) 7f

7/2 Louisiade, 6/1 Iron Max, 6/1 Sairaam
7/1 Positivity, 7/1 Royal Keva, 9/1 Ride A White Swan
9/1 Top Flight Splash, 11/1 Hard Ball, 11/1 Special Cuvee
14/1 Bertbrand, 16/1 Toballa.

This is Division 2 of the 7f handicap run at 2.20pm
so the statistics are the same and we have had 81 of
these races at this time of year. I was close to giving
up on this race as profile after profile dissapointed me
and I was almost resigned to hating every runner until
I found a horse in HARD BALL that I really liked.

Before HARD BALL’s claims I will mention a few of
the negatives. We know 3yo fillys from 6f races are
0-49 so TOP FLIGHT SPLASH didnt appeal. I could
not find winners like RIDE A WHITE SWAN as an
older horse from a maiden. IRON MAX looked too
inexperienced. No filly like POSITIVITY came from
a maiden. SAIRAAM came out badly as a 3yo filly
with no backclass and looked exposed. LOUISIADE
is 8 and steps down in trip and only 1 winner did it
and that was a different type and He’s unimpressive.
TOBALLA - BERTBRAND all looked weak. I can
see ROYAL KEVA running well but 3 year olds in
these races from 8f races hardly excelled and he is
a maiden after 15 runs. SPECIAL CURVEE could
go well but he has an absence to overcome. So with
a lack of credible profiles I stay with HARD BALL.

HARD BALL

* Horses aged 3 from 3yo handicaps
* 5-12 Career Starts
* Absence of over a Month
* Coming from 7f or more
* Starting under 25/1
* There were 4 horses that had that profile
* They finished W W W  W
* Three of the 4 were maidens just as he is

I have to risk HARD BALL. He may be useless
for all I know but this is a useless race dont forget.
Being beaten just 7 lengths in a 0-70 last time is
more than good enough to take this race. That
was over a mile and there is every chance this
7f distance suits him better.I dont know much
about him but he is entered all over the place
this week which must be a good sign and he is
a horse with a strong profile so why not at a double digit price

Hardball 12/1 Ladbrokes / Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

TOWCESTER 3.05

5/4 Ayemdee, 13/8 Cartier Opera, 13/2 Kinkeel,
10/1 Champagne Star, 14/1 My Matilda.

This is another small field Handicap Chase over 2m 6f and
there has been 632 of these races in November -December.
I looked at Mares like MY MATILDA that ran within the
past 2 weeks. There were 7 winners but none ran as badly
as she did last time and none came up from 2m 4f or less so
I see her as having a poor profile. CHAMPAGNE STAR is
also a mare and didnt do enough for me last time and is very
inexperienced over fences. KINKEEL has a very shaky look to his profile.
All three runs this season look awful and with a recent run surely
he hasn’t enough time to bounce back to form. AYEMDEE and
CARTIER OPERA look best and both have ran well in a recent
handicap chase. I looked at all the similar types that have done that.
Both have profiles that won similar races and I like both these horses.
Its arguable AYEMDEE has the better profile. He is younger by 3 years
and less exposed and he doesnt have to step up in distance as CARTIER
OPERA has to do. You could argue his jumping may be safer but I think
CARTIER OPERA is a better bet.

AYEMDEE has only had 1 chase run. I tipped him in that
last time when he won and it was a dreadful race and I just
assumed last time that as it was such a bad race he couldnt
help winning if he could jump. On reflection though I am
more drawn to CARTIER OPERA. This is a huge horse
and took a long time to get on a racecourse. Whatever his
problems the only conclusion you could have is that he was
a well handicapped horse when he won here in November in
a Novice Handicap. That looks a better race than the only
chase run AYEMDEE ran and won in. CARTIER OPERA
won that day off 74. Today he is now only still rated 82.
The question I ask myself is what would he have been rated
had he won a couple more races just as he should have done.

Three runs ago he was going well when unseating rider at
Hereford. He would have bolted in two runs ago at Taunton
but for falling at the last. He should really be on a mark in the 90’s by now.
He jumped round Towcester and placed last time in a Handicap Chase.
If this horse can jump round he is a very well treated horse.
Going up in trip has to help today as it will slow the pace down.
We know he loves thecourse. Yes there are jumping worries but the
small field and longer trip has to help and he has far more chasing
experience than AYEMDEE has had. Dont forget that although
AYEMDEE won on his only Chase start he made mistakes that
day too and wasnt foot perfect. CARTIER OPERA has at least
had much more experience. Given a couple of fewer mistakes in
recent races that he had at his mercy tells me that he would  have
gone up a lot more in the handicaps and would not only  have been
Topweight today - Theres every chance he wouldnt be eligable to be
running in a 0-95 and could have been rated higher than this ceiling.
The horse has proven raw ability on
the Flat. I think given the small field and given he is 2/1 in a race
where few can win CARTIER OPERA is an excellent bet

SELECTION - CARTIER OPERA
2/1 PaddyPower s james Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips