Full members got a nice winner yesterday at about 20 /1 early odds.

On the free blog this Saturday I am posting up a much shorter odds selection.

Best profile today I feel is RUSSIAN GEORGE at Market Rasen
in the Novice Hurdle at 4.10pm but he is a shortish
price and does not get the juices flowing because of
that. If I wanted to play it very safe I would go with
him in a safe each way double but I think he will win

MARKET RASEN 4.10

B Eyre & Son Ltd Ford Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

11/10 Russian George, 11/8 Sir Frank, 9/1 Society Venue
16/1 Not A Bob, 16/1 Royal Entourage, 25/1 Play To Win
28/1 Carrifran, 50/1 Loyal Knight, 66/1 Sound Of Silver.

This is a 17f Novice Hurdle. I think it is probably a two
horse race. I think SIR FRANK will take some stopping
but the better profile comes from RUSSIAN GEORGE a
4 year old that won last time out and very lightly raced.

* I looked at all Novice’s around this trip at this time of year
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a Novice Hurdle last time out over 2 miles
* Between 1 and 2 Career starts
* No form in higher than a Class 3 race before
* There were 15 horses that had that profile
* 10 of the 15 horses won and they finished in these places
* W W 2 W W 2 W 4 W W 2 W W 3 W
* RUSSIAN GEORGE is the selection

6/5 Paddy Power bet365 Betfair

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
****************************************************

HAYDOCK 2.50

bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC s james Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a full Account Bet today in the 4pm race at Ripon
for full members.

Here in the free blog today I thought I would put up a few quick thoughts
on Sandown however.

S A N D O W N

Want to deal with Sandown first as its not a great card
from my point of view mixing hurdles and flat races with
many big fields and trial races. Only want to skip over it.

The opening Handicap at 1pm has 7 renewals. This race
is for Jump and Flat Jockeys and it’s the only race of its
kind at this time of year so angles are thin on the ground.
The worst age group so far has been 4 year olds and I’d
predict an older runner will win. I am happy to oppose a
4yo from a 3yo handicap like Directorship -Kiss A Prince
and Aurora Sky and one from a maiden like Night Lily. I’d
oppose4 year olds like Sapphire Prince and Mr Udagawa
and Best In Class who were all well beaten last time. I am
against any 4yo like Black N Brew with an absence. The
other 4yo Striding Edge is also opposed. Carlitos Spirit
was beaten too far recently. I’d avoid Halsion Chancer
coming from a 6f race. I would shortlist 2 here. Normally
TWILIGHT STAR would have been chucked out with a
profile like his but he won this last year so he gets some
dispensation. MILLFIELDS DREAMS would be my best
hope in the race.

I thought the Listed race Hurdle at 1.30 was priced up
about right. All past winners were aged 5-6-7 with them
all having at least 4 runs that season and previous form
in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 class. Only two horses have
that profile in ASHKAZAR and PETIT ROBIN. There is
no point doing the next race as it’s ridiculous.

The Celebration Chase at 2.30 throws up a big problem
in what to do with TWIST MAGIC the favourite. He is
easily the best horse in the race and won the race last
year as well but just 4 days ago he refused to race and
that is a problem. That was in Ireland as well so he has
travelled there and back in a few days as well. I would
not want FIX THE RIB from a hurdle. Statistically there
is a poor record with horses from handicaps when they
drop in trip so I´M SO LUCKY and CHANINBAR lack
the profile of all past winners. OISEAU DE NUIT may
be the best option at the prices. His chance like all the
others may depend on whether TWIST MAGIC starts
or runs his race. TWIST MAGIC is the most likely one
but at the prices I like  OISEAU DE NUIT each way.

SANDOWN 3.05

bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f110y

7/1 Fairoak Lad, 7/1 Just Amazing, 8/1 The Package,
10/1 Kilcrea Castle, 12/1 Lacdoudal, 12/1 Nostringsattached
14/1 Air Force One, 14/1 Hello Bud, 14/1 Hoo La Baloo
14/1 Tamarinbleu, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 20/1 Church Island
20/1 Monkerhostin, 25/1 Alderburn, 25/1 Irish Raptor
28/1 My Will, 33/1 Killyglen, 33/1 Martys Mission 33/1 Nozic, 33/1 Piraya.

The 3.05pm bet365 Gold Cup is a Grade 3 Handicap over
3m 5f. Tough sort of race. The horses that I think will not
be Fit enough are MONKERHOSTIN - AIR FORCE ONE
NOZIC - LOTHIAN FALCON - IRISH RAPTOR. There’s
a poor record  horses of horses aged 10 or more (1-71) so
ALDERBURN -LACDOUDAL -  CHURCH ISLAND look
weak as 11 year olds. HELLO BUD is 12 and ran far too
well in the Grand National and surely wont recover. Its
asking too much for an exposed horse to defy a lengthy
absence so HOO LA BALOO is out. MARTYS MISSION
is up too far in trip. I’m uncomfortable JUST AMAZING
comes from a Novice Chase and also lacks any form in a
Graded race something 15 of the last 17 winners had. For
the same reason NOSTRINGSATTACHED is opposed.
TAMARINBLEU comes out badly with his absence. Its
asking too much of PIRAYA. The only 7 year olds that
won this were in form and placed last time and he didnt
and thats why he is opposed and THE PACKAGE has
similar problems and I don’t fancy him. KILLYGLEN did
not run well enough last week. MY WILL doesnt make
any appeal. I would shortlist two. KILCREA CASTLE
and FAIROAK LAD both unexposed look strongest.

SELECTION - FAIROAK LAD
SAVER - KILCREA CASTLE

The bet 365 Mile at 3.40pm is a high class Group 2 race.
Its a messy race statistically as 5 runners have had their
latest runs Abroad and no horse comes from the strong
trial race (Earl of Sefton) this year. PRINCE OF DANCE
and THE CHEKA look too inexperienced. No horse has
come from handicaps like FAREER. The last 22 winners
were all younger than PRESSING. One of the interesting
angles in this race is that horses aged 5 or more that are
running first time out are 0-44 in this race. It was only 4
year olds that won this on their seasonal debuts. If you
look at all seasonal debutants none won with 13 or more
starts so BEACON LODGE and  PACO BOY the shortest
priced horse have that to overcome. For me the strongest
3 are BORDER PATROL - CONFRONT - CAT JUNIOR. I
would look to one of these. The best bet given the going
may well be CONFRONT each way.

SANDOWN 4.15

bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y

11/4 Crowded House, 7/2 Glass Harmonium, 4/1 Tranquil Tiger,
9/2 Laaheb, 13/2 Steele Tango, 12/1 Soul City, 16/1 Redwood.

The Gordon Richards Stakes (4.15pm) is unpleasant as
just 7 runners take place.  None of the past winners of
this race were as inexperienced as REDWOOD and not
one was as exposed as TRANQUIL TIGER. All the 4yo
seasonal debutant winners had Group class form in the
past and LAAHEB does not. Horses that had a recent
run and 13 or more career starts were 0-23 and that mix
is something STEELE TANGO has to overcome. I dont
like SOUL CITY much and doubt his stamina as well at
10f. Given a choice CROWDED HOUSE  has to make it
to the shortlist as does GLASS HARMONIUM. Tough
to split them but CROWDED HOUSE appeals more.

The 4.50 is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. Statistically
its a race that’s been messed about with over the years.
MUJOOD is out from a 6f race. SWIFT CHAP had some
problems up in trip. I don’t fancy DUNN’O. I dislike him
as he has 1 run this year and comes up in distance. The
52 similar races show 3 winners managing that but none
were exposed like him none were aged 5 or more as he is
and although DUNN’O won this last year it was with less
weight he wasnt exposed or up in distance. I am not too
keen on GENERAL ELIOTT from novice hurdles. I tried
to find winners like TARTAN GIGHA down from 10f in
the last few weeks but I couldnt match a strong enough
profile and MOUNT HADLEY also has that problem. It
bothers me CHAPTER AND VERSE has been sold and
downgraded stables late last season. That only leaves
MABAIT and although I think he’s plenty short enough
I can understand why he is a warm favourite.

Posted under horse racing tips

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower s james BoyleSports bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Posted under horse racing tips