ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION - NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Posted under horse racing tips

KEMPTON 4.35

Don Wetherell Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (2yo) 6f

This is a 2yo Claiming race. We have 56 of these
races at this time of year. I would look for an each
way bet against the market leaders. Both these are
Fillies coming from 5f races. In 56 races fillies from
5f races were 4-104. None of these had a very recent
run something WANCHAI WHISPER has to overcome
and no filly came from a 5f selling race something that
CHOCOLATE COOKIE has to overcome. There may
be a better alternative. WANNABEE looks outclassed.
BOBBY´S DOLL is too inexperienced. I would not be
with ISHE A LORD whose also far too inexperienced
and horses like him from sellers were 0-38 without at
least 4 career starts. ANNIA has a weak profile and
didnt do enough last time. If you look at horses who
come from 8f races you find that males doing this had
a 0-27 record and those with under 9 previous races
were 0-38 something ARKEN LAD has to overcome.

SELECTION

LITTLE PERISHER has the strongest profile
with backclass a recent run and plenty of runs.
There may be temprement issues but name me
a 2yo claimer that doesnt have that and I felt
he ran better than it looked in a much better
race at Windsor last time. He should win this.

9/2 at PaddyPower

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM 12:30 - PETER O’SULLEVAN NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (AMATEURS) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

4/1 Ornais, 5/1 Over The Creek, 8/1 Back On Line, 9/1 Beantown, 12/1 Old Benny, Sandhurst, 14/1 Here´s Johnny, Ice Tea, 16/1 Leading Authority, 20/1 Menchikov, Niche Market, Oulart, 25/1 In Accord, RimSky, Sherwoods Folly, Sizing Australia, 40/1 Millards Lad, Pass It On, 50/1 Dreux, The King Of Angels.

SELECTION - OLD BENNY

* This is a 4m Novice Chase - the old National Hunt Chase
* The last 3 winners were 33/1 33/1 and 40/1 + a 25/1 as well 5 years ago
* OULART and DREUX look too exposed to be winning
* No horse like OULART had more than 15 Chase starts
* I dont want to bet any horse that ran within 14 days (1-61 record)
* IN ACCORD and OULART fail that
* Do not bet horses that ran with a 7 week or more absence
* Only the 1998 winner who was different class won this with an absence
* SIZING AUSTRALIA fails that
* You want at least 3 career starts - All winners since 1993 could say that
* SANDHURST fails that and has less experience than every other runner
* That Said I want to keep SANDHURST on my side as he is “Interesting”
* You want at least 4 runs that season
* The only time in 15 years the winner ran fewer than 4 times was in 1998
* Wandering Light ran just twice that year. He was different class that year
* The last 16 winners had the following races in the season they won
* They had 7-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 previous races that season
* OULART fails that
* BEANTOWN has ran just twice this season but again I want to keep him on side
* MENCHIKOV has ran just once this year and he is out
* PASS IT ON has ran just 3 times but will be respected for connections
* ORNAIS has had only 3 runs and is a 6 year old
* Horses aged 6 have a 0-43 record since 1989.
* This race looks too tough for them
* ORNAIS - THE KING OF ANGELS - DREUX are 6 year olds
* So to are SHERWOODS FOLLY - SIZING AUSTRALIA
* I want to oppose ORNAIS as a 6 year old and just 3 runs that year
* His worst two runs came at this track and he may be more of an Aintree horse
* His trainer has raised doubts about the Track as well
* OVER THE CREEK was 4th last time in the Reynoldstown beaten 27 lengths
* OVER THE CREEK is reasonably sound statistically despite being a 9 year old
* They dont score that well but they can win
* My objection to OVER THE CREEK is the same as it was for the Reynoldstown
* I hated the fact he came from the Welsh National
* He was 3rd in a hard race for the Welsh National and that may have knocked him back
* He had nothing to offer last time out and I would be wary about that
* Has he left his season behind at Chepstow would be my main worry
* Thats no more than a hunch but I opposed him correctly last time for the same reason.
* NICHE MARKET has two poor runs to put behind him
* Would be worried about his last 2 runs and he isnt from a stable with a festival pedigree
* LEADING AUTHORITY has form closely tied up and has a similar weak chance
* HERES JOHNNY has to put his last run behind him when jumping badly
* 22 of the last 24 winners had a 1-2-3-4 place last time out
* MILLARDS LAD has an outsiders chance much as he isnt the best age
* I cant fault ICE TEA statistically other than failing to place last time
* He isnt totally out of this but he will need a career best

SHORTLIST

BACK ON LINE -BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSky -SANDHURST

Since 2002 the race conditions have changed. If we take the last 6 winners you will see that all winners came from 25f or shorter. There were no horses that ran over 3m 2f or more last time. That suggests to me these horses are slower and although they look better bets as they have less stamina to find they really are not as they lack the class of the speedier horses. Its almost the same as why 2 milers on the Flat do not win the St Leger despite being the proven stayers. In the last 3 renewals there were 21 horses that ran at 3m 2f or more on their last run and only 1 of these managed to scrape a place. I am going to follow this in this race and that means ignoring he horses that ran at beyond 25f last time out. These include BACK ON LINE and RIMSKI

* BACK ON LINE had an otherwise excellent profile in my view
* She is a Mare - and comes from a handicap but I am ok with that
* Loving Around (1996) was a Mare that won this from a handicap
* As she ran at over 25f last time I take her on
* She may also need softer ground
* RIMSky was placed in the Eider Chase last time out
* So to was the 1993 winner (Ushers Island)
* RIMSky loves soft ground and I wonder if it will be soft enough
* I reject RIMSky as he ran at 4m last time

This leaves 3

BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSky -SANDHURST

I feel I have to give massive respect to SANDHURST but have to overlook him down to his lack of experience. SANDHURST has inexperience to worry about and thats a big problem. He looks a very interesting prospect and is clearly laid out for this and he looks a horse that has a lot of ability and I wouldnt put it past him to sicken me by winning but he is very inexperienced and has only ran in 1 completed chase as he fell at the last on his second run. BEANTOWN is interesting. He was second in this race in 2006 at 40/1 and that was an excellent run for such an inexperienced horse. Injury has held him back since but he won well last time and looks a big runner and he’s been Laid out for the race. What I dont like about him is the fact he is a 10 year old - and has just 2 runs this season.

OLD BENNY is therefore my choice and I am more than happy with him. He is held on form by Ornais last time out but this is a completely different test over a Mile more and I feel that suits me far more and I dont see any reason why this track should be a problem. That risk is factored into his price.

Posted under Major Horse Races