C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

2/1 Aerial, 9/2 The Giant Bolster, 13/2 Poquelin
8/1 Tamarinbleu, 9/1 Araldur, 9/1 Chance Du Roy
9/1 Woolcombe Folly, 14/1 Hell4s Bay
16/1 Tartak, 25/1 Billie Magern.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year.
* Look at the 12 Cheltenham races
* Horses aged 6 and 7 have a 0-37 record
* That seems quite a revealing statistic in these races
* I’d oppose horses aged 6 or 7 with that record
* Especially as the first two favourites fail this.
* AERIAL – I am opposing him as a 6yo
* THE GIANT BOLSTER – Avoid him as a 7yo
* BILLIE MAGERN – doesnt offer me enough
* HELL4S BAY – Not in good enough form
* TARTAK – Too much of a fitness doubt for me
* WOOLCOMBE FOLLY – Vulnerable from 2m
* TAMARINBLEU – Asking lots for a 12yo

Shortlist

* POQUELIN – The class horse but a lot to do
* CHANCE DU ROY – Big chance
* ARALDUR – No problems with his profile

S e l e c t i o n

CHANCE DU ROY  10/1 Each Way Ladbrokes bet365

Last time out CHANCE DU ROY was beaten 16 lengths
by Quincy Des Pictons who was rated 119. There was no
shame in that. It was heavy ground and Welsh National
day and CHANCE DU ROY had topweight and gave him
33lbs weight. Thats a massive ammount and when you
consider than Quincy Des Pictons is now rated 137 then
I think he had an impossible task that day. Its interesting
the 3rd horse (Consigliere) came out and won 20 lengths
next time out. CHANCE DU ROY is the one getting the
weight today and I like his chance.

Posted under horse racing tips

Not the strongest bet this year but I am having a personal

smaller stakes dabble at what I feel are value odds.

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – s james

.

Posted under horse racing tips

N e w m a r k e t   2.05

11/4 Pekan Star, 7/2 Kirthill, 7/1 Licence To Till
8/1 Taqleed, 8/1 Tiger Reigns, 10/1 Classic Punch
10/1 Demolition, 12/1 Prince Of Johanne
16/1 Sour Mash, 25/1 Starkat, 33/1 World Heritage.

* This is a 10f Handicap in Class 2
* There are only 33 of these handicaps in August.
* SOUR MASH and STARKAT lack fitness
* WORLD HERITAGE doesnt appeal
* I want to take on PEKAN STAR the favourite
* Horses aged 4 won 16 of the 33 races
* None like PEKAN STAR had under 5 runs
* Those like him with 1-2 runs that year were 0-26
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-60
* PEKAN STAR fails all these angles
* He has much potential but he comes out badly
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE – Doesnt come out well enough
* TIGER REIGNS is an exposed 5yo from a 10f race
* I found 2 similar winners but they had 11lbs less weight
* DEMOLITION is underraced this season
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* CLASSIC PUNCH is a little underraced for an 8yo
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* I see him as unsafe but not out of it

S h o r t l i s t

* LICENCE TO TILL – Good profile if handling ground
* KIRTHILL has a decent profile
* TAQLEED is 4 with 5-12 runs and 1-2-3 that year
* I found 4 similar winners but all were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* TAQLEED was beaten a bit further than all of these
* I still respect him as he had excuses last time
* I hated his profile and he was eased once beaten
* He is priced up here on his last run
* Several of todays horses beat him that day
* Only just though and TAQLEED was favourite last time
* Excuses before that he shouldnt be 8/1
* TAQLEED each way looks a decent option

8/1 at various including bet 365,  Ladbrokes , Tote , Sky bet

Cheers Guy

PS Ladbrokes have just upped their new account free bet offer to £50 to tie in with the soccer season kicking off.  Knowing them this is a temporary thing and it will probably drop again to something smaller in the near future.

So if you don’t yet have a Ladbrokes account today might be a smart day to open one

Posted under horse racing tips

The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes Blue Squareuare bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

NB betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a selection today for full members which runs in the 4.20 at Beverley
Just to keep full members happy I will duck posting it up here.

Another race I have a few shekels on myself is discussed below.

In the 5.30 I have negatives in the race
and probably too many shortlisted for comfort but
I have a bit on FEAR NOTHING at 14/1 and also a
bit on old friend/foe DESERT STRIKE who has two
reasonable excuses on his last two runs.

B e v e r l e y  5.30

7/2 Verinco, 9/2 Ingleby Star, 5/1 Yurituni, 6/1 Alis Aquilae 8/1 Northern Dare,
10/1 Desert Strike, 10/1 Silvanus 12/1 Fear Nothing, 12/1 Ryedane, 33/1 Divertimenti.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-77 rated horses
* There are 533 similar races in May and June
* VERINCO – His absence of 59 days is a problem
*  No exposed horse overcame that with 1-2 runs this year
* YURITUNI didnt strike me as safe
* She won at 6f last time and drops to 5f
* Thats hard enough to win and she is an exposed filly
* DIVERTIMENTI – Looks vulnerable
* ALIS AQUILAE has a weak profile
* Very few lightly raced seasonal debutants won
* None were as old as he is either
* RYEDANE – Not a negative but better profiles exist
* FEAR NOTHING – 1 similar winner
* NORTHERN DARE – Shortlistable
* DESERT STRIKE – Good profile
* SILVANUS – Good profile
* INGLEBY STAR – Solid profile

SELECTIONS

DESERT STRIKE 12/1 Win Bet   Ladbrokes Paddy Power betfred
FEAR NOTHING 12/1 Each Way   available almost everywhere

Posted under horse racing tips