This is a copy of a member message sent on Friday.
The advised 33/1 has now gone but 22/1 is available right now on William Hill
Out of interest Skybet are offering 6 places instead of the usual 4 on this race today.
NEWMARKET 3.40
ToteSPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+) 1m1f
1 Ante Post Bet
Cambridgeshire Handicap (Saturday)
Newmarket 3.40
GREYLAMI 28/1
£25 Each Way
33/1 Hills - VC -Boyles -Spbet -
28/1 bet365 -Tote - Blue Squareuare -888sport
25/1 Ladbrokes -Corals - s james - Sky
25/1 Paddy Power - betfred
Decided to go with a bet in the Cambridgeshire
Not statistically perfect but I have
set the bar so high statistically that I can find
fault with everything and I spent most of the
day on the race yesterday and happy that he
is overpriced and has a better chance than lots
of better fancied runners. We dont have many
bets in big handicaps and you can always expect
to lose in these races but we have earnt a crack
at the race this week so Greylami is a full bet.
SELECTION - GREYLAMI Each Way 28/1
The Cambridgeshire is a 9f Handicap for horses rated 0-109
and there is a long history to this race. The Maximum field
of 35 runners makes it a very hard race but there are a lot of good statistics in the race
to narrow the field down. All my trends in the race are given.
You may wish to apply them all yourselves and come up with a different conclusion.
I have tightened the statistics to the point where they are so tough for a horse to pass
that any horses that fail one trend would still be seen as a possible winner.
Its the horses that fail far more than one trend and are consistently coming up
short that I want to oppose. No point writing detailed paragraphs about 100/1
no hopers so I will just narrow the field down.
HORSES FAILING MULTIPLE ANGLES
STEVIE THUNDER - BENCOOLEN -ELLEMUJIE
GRANSTON - FIGHT CLUB - TARTAN GIGHA
THE CAYTERERS - SMOKEY OAKEY -MARAJAA
KAOLAK - DOCOFTHEBAY -MOYNAHAN
SUPASEUS - GENERAL ELIOTT - KING OLAV
HOWDIGO - ALFATHAA - NANTON
* SHAVANSky did not do enough last time
* He had a shaky profile anyway
* His recent for is just not good enough to win
* CREDIT SWAP looks weak to me
* Statistically he is not suitable
* On the go too long this season
* His 3 wins in Summer leave him badly handicapped
* Never won above Class 4 before
* He has the worst draw in stall 1
* Claimer ridden he should be well beaten
* HILLVIEW BOY doesnt have enough positives
* He has ran every month since March 2009
* Its not a traditional preperation
* There are not enough positives to overlook any flaws
* I feel the same about KAY GEE BE as well
* As an exposed 5yo his flaws cant be forgiven
* ALAZEYAB doesnt fit the right profile
* 3 year olds from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* ALAZEYAB has 10 runs
* He doesnt fit with a past winner well enough
* His form in Pattern Class also weakens his profile
* So to does his inability to place last time
* He probably isnt his owners number 1 anyway
* ALAZEYAB is unlikely to be the one
* THE WHICH DOCTOR isnt out of this at big odds
* I have found 2 reasonably similar winners
* I have found 1 quite similar winners
* What bothers me is he comes from a Class 4 handicap
* No horse in the last 22 years came from this class
* Moving from a 0-82 to a 0-109 is a serious leap
* More so for a horse thats had 17 runs already
* Thats a big problem for me and I oppose him
* WANNABE KING looks wort considering
* He is a 3yo coming here with a W W W record
* He doesnt come from a Grade 1 track
* We know 19 of the 20 winners did that
* He is a 3yo from an 8f handicap
* Horses aged 3 doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 3 year olds with a penalty were just 1-27
* He just misses out from having a strong profile
* He may find this class from his rating just too much
* Certainly has a chance though
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER isnt dead statistically
* There hasnt been a similar 3yo winner though
* None had pattern form as he does
* They all managed to place last time and he didnt
* 3 year olds from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* I think there are better options
* BUSHMAN fails far too many trends for me
* Only 1 winner since 1987 ran in a Group race
* He just looks the wrong type for the race
* APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly and all 21 of those lost
* She is very inexperienced and lightly raced this year
* Three runs this year may not be enough for a filly
* All 3yo winners had more runs this year and were male
* They all managed to place last time as well
* She was impressive last time finishing fast
* It was only a Fillies handicap though
* She will be well handicapped but I cant bet her
* She isnt proven statistically and no winners were similar
* SALUTE HIM fails far too many angles
* Exposed with an absence and few runs this year
* I couldnt argue a good case for him
* ALMIQDAAD is a lightly raced 3 year old
* He has just 3 runs this year
* All winning 3 year olds had more runs this year
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before either
* His Group race form is a worry
* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had Group race form
* That 1-121 record has to be a worry
* He also has a penalty and just 1-27 overcame that
* ALMIQDAAD is nearly there
* He just does not have as safe a profile as I’d want
P O S S I B L E S
* ROYAL DESTINATION was well beaten last time
* We know horses well beaten last time are awful
* However last years winner was the only horse to win
* That winner was very similar to ROYAL DESTINATION
* He was lightly raced and aged 4 as well
* He came from the same Newbury Handicap as well
* Last years winner had topweight in the Newbury race
* ROYAL DESTINATION also had topweight
* Whilst last years winner was hampered he wasnt
* ROYAL DESTINATION shaped like he needed that race
* It may be that he needs 1 more run
* His trainer has 3 in the race and he looks the 2nd string
* ROYAL DESTINATION has a chance but doubts remain
* TRYST has had 4 career starts
* That makes him less experienced than all past winners
* Horses with under 5 runs were 0-14
* The best they managed was a 3rd and 4th place
* TRYST has won just 1 race
* 19 of the last 20 winners had won more races
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Another problem is so few come via non handicaps
* He is nearly there but he doesnt match a past winner
* SIRVINO has a long 84 day absence
* The 3 winners that did that were all aged 4
* They all had under 13 career runs
* SIRVINO survives that problem
* He is not dissimilar to Pasternak
* He also won this after winning the Magnet Cup
* Horses aged 4 with 9-12 runs and 10 weeks off were 2-3
* You can argue he has more runs this year than the others
* Statistically he isnt too bad but I am a bit worried
* He has risen 36lbs in the weights this season
* He started the year off 65 and thats hardly a sign of class
* I doubt many past winners started the year off 65
* Winning off 101 with a long absence isnt easy
* SIRVINO is a possible but it wont be easy
* SWOP was 3rd in last years race
* He did that from a very poor draw
* He also came from last place after half way
* SWOP deserves maximum respect
* He does not fail any of my statistics
* Few other horses in this race can say the same
* I thought he really caught the eye last time
* I would like a few lbs less weight
* We havent had a winner his age carry so much weight
* Thats a worry but he looks a serious runner
* CHARM SCHOOL has a good profile
* He looks strong statistically from the best trial race
* Some question whether 9f will be far enough
* I wouldnt criticise him on that point
* Not with his profile solid in other areas
S E L E C T I O N
GREYLAMI 25/1 - 33/1
Each Way
This has been a Cambridgeshire with very few significant
gambles and it’s clear there isnt one outstanding candidate
as the market suggests. There are several potential winners
but they all have something or other to overcome. I do like
SWOP a lot but the weight will be very hard to carry and I
didnt think he would give 15lbs to GREYLAMI.
GREYLAMI has just beaten TRYST . I think he can again.
SIRVINO is a danger but you have a good chance of beating
any horse with an absence of 12 weeks. CHARM SCHOOL
has a solid chance but he has not made any big waves in the market and doesnt come
without question marks. I’m happy GREYLAMI has a great each way chance at a big price.
He does have some issues statistically but that doesnt worry me.
Statistically I have set the bar so high that everything will fail angles in this race and I
have made them as demanding as I can. I would be happier if he has 1 less run and 1
less run this year but I can live with that. Statistically I respect him and he resembles the
1996 winner Clifton Fox closely. Whilst he comes from a conditions race and I would
prefer a handicap that did not stop another very similar type in Blue Bajan finishing
second in 2006 from the same race with a very similar profile. I dont see any strong
reasons why he cant go very close in this race with just 8st 5lbs.
He showed a nice turn of foot last time and would have won
had he not been mugged on the line. I think you want a horse conditioned at 10f and
every recent winner had proven form over further than 9f. He has won in a big field like
almost all recent winners. It may be something less progressive beats him but there is
no guarantee of that as most of the lighter raced horses have flaws and he is fit and
in form with a recent run and gets weight from almost anything that matters in the race
and I think he should go very well.
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CAMBRIDGESHIRE STATISTICS
* There has been 20 renewals Since 1989
* Horses from 3yo handicaps are only 1-45 in 20 years
* Horses with Less than 5 career starts 0-10
* Horses with between 5 and 12 career races are best
* Only 4 of the last 19 winners were exposed
* Those with over 21 career starts were 4-234
* Horses with 21 + runs were weak in these areas
* Exposed horses with under 7 runs that season were 0-56
* Exposed horses aged 4 (1-56) aged 5 (0-67)
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more (0-49)
* Exposed horses with a 32 + days absence are 0-40
* Exposed horses that are female are 0-27
* Exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-113
* Exposed horses that have penalties (1-24)
* Exposed horses not 1st or 2nd last time were 1-196
* Exposed horses coming from non handicaps are 0-41
* Exposed horses with 9st or more are 1-75
* Horses with 13 + Career races had a 6-422 record
* Horses with 13 + runs and less than 5 this year were 0-57
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3 are 0-35
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 5 are 0-106
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3-4-5 are just 2-305
* Those in the 2-305 record with Pattern class form 0-119
* Both that did it had very light weights 8st 2lbs or less
* Horses with 13 + runs with Group 1-Group 2 form are 0-40
* Horses with 13 + runs without a run in a month are 0-95
* Horses with 13 + runs beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-190
* Horses with 9 or more runs this season are appalling (1-161)
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season all had under 13 runs
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-45)
* 19 of the last 20 winners came from a Grade 1 track
* 5 Year Olds have a 0-119 record - but not many were fancied
* Horses aged 8 or more have never won (0-21)
* All 3 year old had a 6-190 record
* They all had between 5 and 12 career starts
* Those with less (0-9) and more (0-35)
* All 3 year old winners had at least 4 runs that year
* All 3 year old winners lacked any headgear
* No 3 year old winners had ran in Listed-Group class before (0-43)
* All 3 year old winners were Male
* All 3 year old winners with a penalty had a 1-27 record
* All 3 year old winners were 1st 2nd 3rd last time out (others 0-78)
* All 3 year old winners came from a Class 3 or Class 2 race
* 3 year olds from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46)
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 4 year old winners that had 5-12 starts had a 6-65 record
* 4 year old winners that had 13 or more runs had a weak 2-164 record
* Both were very lightweighted horses
* 4 year olds who ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-85
* All 4 year old winners lacked any headgear
* All 4 year old winners ridden by a claimer are 0-49
* All 4 year old winners not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-25
* All 4 year old winners came from handicaps
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Horses aged 6 or 7 won the race 5 times in the last 20 years
* Horses aged 6 or 7 all had at least 5 runs that season
* All 4 winners aged 6 or 7 ran within the previous 3 weeks
* Horses that ran in listed or group class before were 3-239
* None ran in Group 1 (0-38) or Group 2 before (0-20)
* Since 1993 they had a 1-199 record
* No horse with Pattern form had under 13 runs (0-55)
* None had under 5 runs this season (0-49)
* Horses aged 3-4-5 with listed or group class form are 0-171
* Horses with listed or group class form were all male
* They all came via handicaps
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were only 1-134
* Horses with pattern form with under 5 wins were 0-160
* Horses with pattern form and 9st 5lbs or more were 0-48
* Horses aged 5 or more are best running within 3 weeks
* Those that were absent over 3 weeks were 1-132
* If a horse has over a Months absence it may be a certain type
* It should have under 13 runs (others 0-95)
* It should have under 6 runs this season (others 0-82)
* It will have ran in Class 2 or no higher
* Horses absent a Monththat ran in Listed-Group class before are 0-62
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* 7lbs claimers are 0-32
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are appalling (1-257)
* That winner was last year though
* Horses from the 9f handicap at Goodwood recently are 0-30
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are just 1-198
* Horses from Listed Class last time had a 0-34 record
* Horses from Class 4 or lower had a 0-72 record
* Horses dropping in trip from 10.5f or more are 0-32
* Horses coming from a Conditions race are just 1-115
* Horses with 2-7 Career wins won 19 of the 20
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more (1-48) underperform
* Most winners had been laid out for the race.
* Usually they had not started their season until June
* Either that or they had a 6 week break at some stage
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Posted under horse racing tips
This post was written by Maths on October 3, 2009
Tags: Ahan, Alf, Angles, Betfred, Bets, Better Chance, Boyles, C2, Eliott, Fight Club, Handicap Racing, Handicaps, Hopers, King Olav, Ladbrokes, Maximum Field, Member Message, Moynahan, Paragraphs, Runners, Skybet, Tartan, William Hill
