Lincoln Handicap Stats

The Lincoln Handicap as a large field size handicap
is often a bit of a nightmare to assess.

The Lincoln however is usually a welcome sight
as it indicates the start of the new flat season.

The extract below is taken from our full Member message
of Sunday March 24th.

Those of you self thinkers who prefer to select your own
horses may find the researched stats below of some assistance
in narrowing down your personal shortlist.

If on the other hand you are more so a boss type
who prefers to pay slave wages and get someone else to
do all the hard work feel free to gather a few coppers together
to drum up £3 for our Saturday Service this week.

The Saturday message will cover the Lincoln and more.

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Ante Post Statistics Lincoln Handicap

Next Saturday ( March 29th )

 

9/2 Auxerre 10/1 Kynren 12/1 Ripp Orf 12/1 Humbert
14/1 Ibraz 16/1 Lord Oberon 16/1 Ledham 16/1 Zwayyan
16/1 South Seas 16/1 Mizaah 20/1 Chilean 20/1 Chiefofchiefs
20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Qaroun 20/1 Safe Voyage 20/1 Hathal
20/1 Silver Quartz 20/1 Battered 25/1 Ballard Down
25/1 Aquarium 25/1 Beringer 25/1 Breden 25/1 Remarkable
25/1 Salute The Soldier 25/1 Gabrial 25/1 Third Time Lucky
33/1 Masham Star 33/1 Book of Dreams 33/1 Chatez
33/1 Circus Couture 33/1 Dawaaleeb 33/1 Saltonstall
33/1 Exec Chef 33/1 Great Prospector 33/1 Al Jellaby
33/1 Sods Law 33/1 Wahash 33/1 Waarif 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Isomer 40/1 Monoxide 40/1 Calling Out 40/1 Protected Guest
40/1 Raydiance 40/1 Rise Hall 40/1 Gulf Of Poets 40/1 Ventura Knight
40/1 Medieval 40/1 Borderforce 40/1 Prevent 40/1 Brian The Snail
40/1 Petrus 40/1 Calvados Spirit 40/1 Dragon Mall 50/1 Fake News
50/1 Delph Crescent 50/1 Fayez 50/1 Gossiping 50/1 Apex King
50/1 Starlight Romance 50/1 Weld Al Emarat 50/1 Pastime
50/1 Rampant Lion 50/1 Crownthorpe 50/1 Robsdelight
50/1 Sands Chorus 50/1 Detachment

 

 

Monday there is an entry stage
The above field will get reduced
Declarations coming on Thursday
When we will see the final field

A Class 2 Handicap over a Mile

Last 3 winners were 4 year olds
4yo’s have won 9 of the last 14

 

Your 4yo should be Male
Ideally have between 4 and 20 starts
Should be a seasonal debutant
But not absent over 7 months
Not coming from a 3yo handicap

 

Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Horses aged 7 or more since 1999
Have an overall 0-67 record

 

Horses with under 4 career runs
Have a 0-13 record in this race

 

Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a poor 1-57 record

 

Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-82 record
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-43

 

18 of the last 19 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
None came from Class 4-5-6

 

Horses from Listed/Group races
Have a poor overall 1-72 record
In the last 14 years they were 0-51

 

The Draw is often guesswork
The last 3 winners drawn 10 15 20 22

Go back to 2001
Doncaster races over a Mile
Any kind of race any time of year
Horses Aged 5 or more
Drawn 17 or higher have a 0-139 record

 

12 renewals since 2005
11 of the 12 winners rated between 95-105
The last 5 winners rated 99 102 100 100 100

 

No horse has won absent 239 + days
None won absent over 211 days since 2002

 

Horses that came from 9f or more
Won 7 of the previous 13 renewals
Of which 3 came via a Cambridgeshire

 

 

AUXERRE is the favourite
He has been consistently backed

He is a 4yo seasonal debutant
We have seen 9 of these win recently
They had 7 11 4 14 6 5 15 12 5 runs

AUXERRE has just 4 runs
The 2005 winner Stream Of Gold
Did have the same profile as him
But that was quite a long time ago

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 28, 2019

Tags: ,

Lincoln Handicap Stats

We sent these out to full members earlier in the week
to assist any who fancied a bit of an ante post dabble on the Lincoln Handicap.

I’d describe these as “profile of the race” style stats or “major race trends”.

 
Knowing form traits that past winners exhibited or form traits
that produced mainly past losers is an obvious useful tool to have
when short listing contenders for a possible bet this year.

And if you want one point of my tuppence worth of general
good advice to using such major race trends that may be ..

Don’t fall into the trap of looking for the horse with
the most positive form trait ticks as the only possible bet.

In the long run you are after value.

A Form tick perfection horse can be everyone’s
obvious choice and too short a price.

Be happy to accept a degree of imperfection
when you feel it compensated for by odds.

 

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Ante Post Statistics

Lincoln Handicap

Age of recent winners
4 6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 6 5 5 5
Horses aged 7 + have a 1-86 record
All 59 that ran in the last 12 years beaten

 

March-April
Class 2 handicaps on turf over 8f
There are 88 of these races since 2000
Horses aged 7 +  had a miserable 2-220 record
None of them had form in Group races before

 

Horses aged 6 + have a 10-426 record
The vast majority were seasonal debutants.
6 year olds running within 90 days
Have a worrying 1-213 record

 

4 year olds won 8 of the last 18 renewals
Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
Most are untested in pattern races
Fillies aged 4 are 0-7 in the last 17 years
4 year olds are best with a long absence
Last years 4yo winner ran in Meydan in February
No 4yo came from a 3yo handicap
No 4yo  lost 10 + lengths last time

 

No 5yo winners ran in an English Group race before
The Lincoln winner rarely has English Group form
There are 124 that tried and only one managed to do it
Last years winner did the first since the 2004 winner

 

Horses with under 4 runs are 0-8
Horses with 21 + runs won 8 of the last 23 renewals
6 of the 8 seasonal debutants
None of them carried 9st 5lbs or more
None of them raced in Group Class before

 

8 Past winner ran recently on the All weather
4 of them came from Dubai
4 ran within the previous 15 days
These 4 horses waged 5 5 4 5
None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
They all Placed in a Class 2 handicap last time
None came from 7f or shorter
They all had 8st 11lbs or less

 

No winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap
Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
Both seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5
Both had 8st 6lbs or less
Horses from 9f or more won 5 of the last 12 renewals
No horse has won from a 3 year old handicap
You want a horse from a handicap last time
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-36 in recent years

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2017

Tags: , ,