Lincoln Analysis

Last week I posted up here some advance stat work for the Lincoln at Doncaster.

One of Guy’s mantras here would be

 

“It’s not the stats that are important.

It’s the interpratation of the stats that is important”

 

Below for you is how Guy himself interpreted things last Saturday.

He did so very well as you can see with main selection Bravery

going on to win the race.  The market did not fancy Bravery much.

He drifted to 20/1 SP and Betfair paid a whopping 34.67 in the win market.

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DONCASTER 3.35

4/1 Yuften, 6/1 Donncha, 10/1 Top Notch Tonto
12/1 Bravery, 14/1 Battle Of Marathon, Dolphin Vista
Oh This Is Us, 16/1 Third Time Lucky, Zhui Feng
20/1 Gabrial, Instant Attraction, You’re Fired
25/1 Eddystone Rock, Heaven’s Guest
Lucy The Painter, George Cinq, Highland Colori
Master Carpenter, Steel Train, Withernsea
40/1 Dream Walker, Emell.

The Lincoln
I start off here with not much interest
Racing Software can’t be trusted in this race
One of the annual races to ignore software
Just going to have a go and see what happens

I am ignoring the horses aged 7 or more
The Draw could be a factor here
Last years winner came from Stall 22
That put a bit of a spanner in the works

Go back to 2001
Doncaster have had 152 races over 8f
Horses drawn 17 or higher have a 1-64 record
That winner was last year
But he came up the middle of the track
I’d be very wary of extreme low and high draw

DONNCHA looks too riSky drawn 21
When he has a breeding doubt as well
His sires runners over a Mile or more
Have a 0-19 record in Class 3 or higher

The issue with “recent runs” is complicated
Especially with horses aged 5 or more
Not going to try and dissect this issue
But I have problems with some older types
Who have some kind of recent runs

YUFTEN for example has an unsafe profile
As a 6yo coming from a 7f Listed race this year
THIRD TIME LUCKY has 3 runs in 2017
He has Stall 1 though which can’t help
He has a 7lbs claimer who has never ridden him
Never raced here before and rode in just 9 races
5lbs & 7lbs claimers are 0-61 in this and Spring mile
YOUR FIRED has a recent run but over 10f
WITHERNSEA maybe should be shortlisted
But a Mile first time worried me for him
BATTLE OF MARATHON was 3rd last year
But he had 3 warm up races last year
This year he is a seasonal debutant
He also has more weight and no runs since July
No horse has won the Lincoln absent that long

Shortlist

BRAVERY 16/1 – Drawn 20 perhaps a bit high
DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1 not ruled out
STEEL TRAIN 28/1 – 3 runs this year want him onside
OH THIS IS US 12/1 – 2 Meydan runs helpful

Selection

£2 Each Way BRAVERY 16/1

£2 Each Way DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1

£1 Win Bet OH THIS IS US 12/1

£1 Win Bet STEEL TRAIN 28/1

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 6, 2017

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The Spring Mile

Following on from a winner at 9/1 in the Gold Cup
George Guru won last week for us at about 13/8.

I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster  2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS  has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1  in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

 

———————————-

PS   I have further  full bets for full members today in the 6.05

So plenty of time to get them and get on if you wish to join up as a client proper.

See Here For More info ==> Betting Advice

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2012

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Lincoln Handicap Statistics

William Hill Lincoln Statistics

Forecast Odds
7/2 Expresso Star 7/1 Swop , 8/1 Charm School, 10/1 Huzzah
12/1 Don’t Panic 12/1 Flipando, Zaahid , 14/1 Titan Triumph
16/1 Benandonner ,20/1 Blythe Knight, 20/1 Docofthebay
20/1 Mia’s Boy, 20/1 Whistledownwind, 20/1 Bolodenka
25/1 Lady Deauville , 25/1 Eva’s Request, 25/1 Royal Power
25/1 European Dream , 25/1 Dream Lodge, 25/1 Cobo Bay
25/1 Ace of Hearts, 33/1 Philario.
For Live Current Odds from multiple bookmakers

Click Here

* The Lincoln is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* There has been 57 similar races elsewhere
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-43 record in this race
* Horses aged 7 or more struggled in 57 races
* They had a 2-144 record
* Those aged 7 + with Group form were 0-47
* Those aged 7 or more that were Male were 0-139
* The only runners aged 7 + to be considered are female
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 3-116 in this race
* All 3 were exposed and seasonal debutants
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran in Group races before (0-42)
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran this season (0-35)
* They all came from Class 2 handicaps last year
* None of the winners aged 6 + had 9st 1lbs or more (0-33)
* Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won only 4 of the 17 Lincolns
* Exposed horses won 13 of the 57 other handicaps
* Those with prior Group Class form were just 1-88
* Those dropping from 9f or more were 0-97
* Those with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-101
* Exposed horses winning the Lincoln were all seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this season were 0-59
* Exposed horses aged under 6 were just 1-57
* Exposed horses that ran in Group Class before are 0-34
* Exposed horses that are Male have a poor 2-135 record
* Exposed horses beaten 10 + lengths last time are 0-50
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs carrying 9st 1lbs or more are 0-36
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran on sand this winter were 1-94
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran in Group Class before were 0-71
* Horses with 13 + runs that carried 9st 1lbs or more were 1-63
* Horses with 2 + runs this season were 1-51
* 6 winners came from the All Weather
* 5 of the 6 winners coming from the sand had under 13 starts
* Horses that came from the sand with 13 or more starts were 1-103
* All 41 aged 6 or more that came from the sand lost
* None of the Sand winners lost by 10 + lengths last time (0-37)
* None of the 6 winners from the Sand came from 7f or shorter (0-31)
* Only 1 of the 6 winners from the sand carried 8st 12lbs or more (1-44)
* Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
* Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
* Horses aged 4 already tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-52
* Horses aged 4 that were absent 7 months or more were 0-18
* Fillies aged 4 are 0-17
* None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap (0-18)
* None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 +lengths last time (0-43)
* Looking now at 5 year olds
* Horses aged 5 are best with 9-20 races
* None of the past 5 year old winners had ran in Group class before (0-19)
* Three recent 5yo winners came here having placed on sand within 2 weeks
* The LINCOLN winner has rarely run in Group Class before (1-90)
* In 16 renewals the only past winner that did that was Babodana (2004)
* Those that did run within 15 days had the following traits – They were all:
* Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs that came Placed from a Class 2 handicap
* They also ran over at least a mile are had under 9st
* If you look at seasonal debutants they won 13 of the 16 renewals
* Seasonal debutants that came from 9f or more had a weak 1-74 record
* Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-64 record in the last 16 years
* In 16 renewals horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 1-119 record
* All 16 winners had at least placed in their last 6 runs and 15 had won
* None of the 16 winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
* Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
* Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
* Horses that came from 9f or more have won 2 recent renewals
* Those with under 9 runs were 0-15
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more had 21 + runs (0-41)
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more were aged 6 or more (0-36)
* Horses that were in the Top 3 of the weights had a 1-54 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs or more had a 2-91 record
* Both winners had under 21 starts and were seasonal debutants aged 4-5
* If a Horse has come 2nd in their last 6 runs – but not won its a problem
* These types have a 0-71 record
* Horses up in trip with fewer than 13 previous races had a 1-34 record
* No horse won this race coming from a 3 year old handicap before
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more had a weak 2-74 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs + with 21 or more races before had a 0-36 record

To visit our main site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday All Weather Horse Racing Tip

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO – LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – ACE OF HEARTS – EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – MAHADEE – SAMARINDA – LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR – FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, sjames and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips