Every meeting gets the go ahead today. Some very

interesting and significant Jumping action. Much of it is more Positioning for

Cheltenham. Plenty of races that don’t make any appeal to me as they throw up

short priced favourites or impossible to asses handicaps.

The racing selection for the blog this weekend however is

at Lingfield.

Lingfield 4.05

TITAN TRIUMPH Each Way 100/30 at Corals

There seems to be a school of though that TITAN

TRIUMPH is unproven in this class and has a lot to do. You can definitely make that argument but horses trying exactly what he attempts today have a strong record. I felt he was highly impressive last time and that he meets a mixed bag of unfit and badly treated horses. He will need luck in running as they all do
here but I thought he had a strong chance and is good enough to win.

LINGFIELD 4.00

William Hill JANUARY SALE – BET NOW! HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m

5/2 Titan Triumph, 3/1 Atlantic Story, 5/1 Red Somerset, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts,

8/1 Samarinda, 10/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Kayak, 20/1 Fajr, 20/1 Swiss Act.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-108

* Its a class handicap and there’s been 51 similar races

* ACE OF HEARTS has to go aged 10 absent 107 days

* Thats asking too much as he has a career high mark

* FAYR won this race last year but had a recent run

* He is now a 7 year old absent 56 days

* I don’t want an older horse with a long absence like him

* KAYAK is out as a 7yo absent 42 days

* I don’t want SWISS ACT as he has ran once since June

* CAPRICORN RUN is not too bad statistically

* Not many horses come via conditions races though

* RED SOMERSET comes from that same race

* He is also reasonably fine statistically

* RED SOMERSET has never won in this class though

* He has never won from this handicap mark either

* He has never won off higher than 86 or above 0-90 class

* Today he is off 89 and facing a 0-108

* SAMARINDA is fine statistically but has a tough mark

* He has never won from his current mark

* ATLANTIC STORY has some issues to overcome

* None of the 51 winners came from Listed class as he does

* He is also a 7 year old with a 31 day absence

* He also has a career high mark to overcome

* TITAN TRIUMPH looks the progressive improver

* He has just won his last 4 races

* He has just won 0-74 – 0-75 – 0-80 and a 0-84 handicap

* This is clearly a step up in Class

* To counter that he is a fast improving well handicapped horse

* I looked at horses in 51 races with similar profiles

* Horses that won their last 2 races in Class 3 or lower

* Horses that came into these races like that scored well

* When they came from 8f or longer handicaps they were 6-14

* The Males that tried it starting under 12/1 were 6-12

* This suggests in form improvers can bridge the class gap

* TITAN TRIUMPH is my choice to improve past these

* With many potentially unfit and badly handicapped

* TITAN TRIUMPH may be able to win in this class

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday December 13th

No Bets Today

We have lost Cheltenham after an unscheduled inspection
this morning and thats robbed the message of several good
previews and possible bets. Very dissapointing as it was
a mouth watering card. As Lingfield has also been lost as
well there really has not been much I could offer today so
I am afraid its a quiet Saturday looking at a handful of the Southwell
races and no advised bets. The weather has won today and turned the
day into a poor racing day.

If you need an interest today

SOUTHWELL 1.15

13/8 Savaronola, 5/2 Eureka Moment, 3/1 Colourful Move, 10/1 Piermarini, 14/1 Jayyid, 16/1 Monaadi, 100/1 Sweet Seville.

This is a 12f maiden for horses aged 3 and 4 and it forces a guess as so many of these are hard to beat.
I’d look to oppose the Curley Leisure horse SAVARONOLA.
He looks to have been over estimated like most of his connections runners.
I dont like the fact he has been hurdling. I think there is a stamina doubt.
His sire has never bred a 12f winner yet and a long absence doesnt help.
I dont want a horse like COLOURFUL MOVE as he was sold for just £800 recently and that gives
volumes away about both his soundness and ability.
The big priced  Monaadi and Sweet Seville look out of their depth .PIERMARINI is out having been hammered in a claiming race.

I could only bet EUREKA MOMENT or JAYYID who were 3rd and 4th in the same maiden last time.
EUREKA MOMENT would be my choice.

Best Current Odds 11/4 Ladbrokes, Tote , Blue Squareuare

Posted under horse racing tips