Lingfield 4.55

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(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1    Sky   s james

Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

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Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower s james BoyleSports bet365

Posted under horse racing tips