Mathematician 1153

Lingfield  3.55 – PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way

L i n g f i e l d

Lingfield has a ferocious card. I have half chances in a
lot of races but not sure there is anything good enough
to advise. I nearly did something in the 3.55pm but I’d
run out of time. I like Pipers Piping and City Legend a
bit and although I have not made a strong enough case
for a very strong bet I can go with a mention. Rather
than have City Legend as a saver I will take a simpler
route and suggest PIPERS PIPING each way at 9/1 +

It’s very hard today and I have struggled to find any
really decent bet and I think it’s a dangerous day so
go careful and consider its a particularly tough day.
I see this more as a Fun Bet and no guarantees we are
going to get anything back from it.

L i n g f i e l d   3.55

9/4 Sketchy Evidence, 7/2 Eager To Bow, 11/2 City Legend
13/2 The Strig, 8/1 Pipers Piping, 10/1 Cativo Cavallino
12/1 Hawk Moth, 16/1 Silvee, 20/1 Sienna Blue
25/1 High On The Hog.

No time to look at this handicap in any great detail
but I checked out Sketchy Evidence and would have
opposed him. No winners came from maidens with
2 runs as he does. Only one winner came from a 6f
maiden and that horse had a long absence and I just
see him as shaky. EAGER TO BOW does have the
much safer profile but he didnt excite me and that
aside his draw would put me off him. There are two
I think stand out with recent races in this race.

* CITY LEGEND – Every chance of taking this
* PIPERS PIPING – Looks interesting with better jockey

Selection

PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way at s james

For live market prices see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-07/lingfield-park/15-55/betting/

If you are led personally to City Legend I would not put you off it.

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Posted under horse racing tips

A nice winner here last Saturday with Golden Desert who won at 16/1 SP.

See http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/newmarket-betting-advice/

You would have made extra cash profit of course if you took the early odds 18/1 advised here.

On to today.  Can we make it two in a row?

Probably not.  I feel we have value on our side but a 6/1 shot even if say 9/2 true odds is more likely to lose than win on the day.

Bet such horses 1000 times however and you should come out ahead in the long run.

 

N e w m a r k e t  3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski
13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami
16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem
25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are 53 similar races at this time of year
* JAMEEL is very lightly raced
* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens
* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f
* Neither had 1-2 runs that season
* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22
* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile
* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year
* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat
* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him
* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race
* His connections say he is only 90% fit
* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time
* RED ANTHEM may need more runs
* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long
* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season
* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs
* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs
* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record
* Both had more backclass and came from better races
* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time
* WARNES WAY has the same problem
* Neither come out well on their latest starts
* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time
* These horses score badly but there is hope there
* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem
* If either bounce back they could be a threat
* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have
* Last years winner had a recent race
* Both horses have been absent over a Month
* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month
* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record
* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor
* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time
* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match
* ART HISTORY is a positive
* ART HISTORY Each Way 6/1 looks a solid bet

6/1 at Coral -  Ladbrokes – betfred – bet365

Full live odds can be seen at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-10-01/newmarket/15-35/betting/

 

Posted under horse racing tips

B e v e r l e y   4.45

7/4 Musnad, 7/2 Cool In The Shade, 7/2 Surely This Time
6/1 American Lover, 14/1 Uddy Mac, 20/1 Boucher Garcon
20/1 Libys Dream, 20/1 Nially Noo, 20/1 Oosisit
33/1 Avon Rising, 66/1 Ingenti, 66/1 La Danse Champetre
66/1 Wing N Prayer, 100/1 Queen´s Princess.

This is a 5f Maiden for all aged horses. Many of these are
outclassed and only half a dozen look options and I would
reduce that to 5 by ignoring UDDY MAC a 4yo filly rated
just 49. Another 4yo filly AMERICAN LOVER leaves me
cold as well. None have won any similar 5f maiden at this
time of year. This race usually goes to a well raced horse.
In all past renewals of this race horses that had 1-2-3 runs
had a miserable 1-92 record. That puts me off an unraced NIALLY NOO.
It also worries me about LIBYS DREAM
as well a filly with 1 race. If you take all 5f maidens like this and l
ook at fillies coming from 6f maidens having 1 career start like LIBYS DREAM
you find a 0-16 record and she is not like any past winners.
Considering this is  a 5f race then MUSNAD dropping from 10f has to give
off serious warning signs. I cant bet MUSNAD from 10f
and feel there are better options. Without a doubt I feel
SURELY THIS TIME and COOL IN THE SHADE have the best profiles by some way.
Both though are drawn in Stalls 1 and 2 and that may not be ideal.
The recent six winners here came from stalls  8 11 10 12 10 9 and the draw does worry me a bit.
I don’t see any sensible other alternatives though and have to commit to these two.

Selection

COOL IN THE SHADE 100/30  Win Bet
SURELY THIS TIME 5/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

For those of you who prefer to do your own thing selection wise

here are some researched stats for Cheltenham Day 4 races.

 

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* English Horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I would avoid horses with 1 career start
* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-31 record.
* 2 of the last winners had just 2 previous races
* Thats a change as 17 of the previous 18 had more
* Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage.
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Flat Bred
* Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat
* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49
* The last 19 winners all ran after January 17th that year
* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 5 times
* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000
* All 3 won last time within the past month
* Horses that won their last race won 12 of the last 13
* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time
* Those that were not had a 0-158 record
* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85
* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle
* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled
* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-49
* All 36 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost
* All 85 maidens lost
* 14 of the last 16 winners had won twice that season
* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings
* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-133

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent O?Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Seasonal debutants have not won this race
* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-43
* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season
* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and none won
* All 16 winners had at least that and most had 4 +
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3-4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season
* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs
* 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* The last 17 winners were absence this many days
* 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much
* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record
* 5 and 6 year olds won 39 of the last 49 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have won 4 of the last 6 renewals
* No horse aged 10 or older have won
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs
* 16 of the last 18 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before
* Both high and low weighted winners have won
* I’d oppose the very high weighted horses
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18

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CHELTENHAM 2.40

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are just 6 renewals of this race
* The 5 winners were aged 7-6-7-6-7-5
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-13
* The 6 winners were 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts
* The 6 winners had 15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs
* They had the following number of hurdle starts
* 13 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 4
* I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3
* Dont be put off from horses with absences
* The 6 winners had been absent this many days
* 33 47 61 48 97 27
* All 6 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time
* 2 of the 6 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the distance before
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the track before
* The 6 winners had 9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* 14 of the last 15 winners had 6-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 14 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-82 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 17 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-85 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 34 that ran in the last 17 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 11 of the last 13 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Allmost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Christies Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
(CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-2 since 1992
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-130 both winners a shock
* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses.
* You can’t rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004
* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days
* Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.
* Anything that wins very recently is significant
* Seasonal debutants won several renewals
* I would either want a long absence or very short one
* Horses with Headgear won 1 race but score badly
* We haven’t yet had a female winner of this race (0-14)
* The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions
* W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W
* The majority have won their latest starts
* Or they would have probably won when falling
* 19 of the last 23 winners won on their previous start
* Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37
* 19 of the last 21 were brought up via Hunters or Points
* All 23 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost
* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.
* None of the 38 won this race
* No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

* No strong Statistics with just 2 past renewals
* Both winners were 6 year olds
* Both had 11st 2lbs and more
* Both last ran in Febuary
* Both had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences
* Both had ran over fences at least once before
* Both had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before
* Neither winner came up in distance
* Both had placed at Cheltenham before
* Both winners had 4 runs that season
* Neither had 3 or more career wins before

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CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase runs
* 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Recent winners had the follwing Hurdle runs
* 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs
* 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40
* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997
* The last 11 winners had these Handicap Chase runs
* 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5
* 5 of the last 11 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase
* Another one had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase.
* The last 11 winners had these Novice Chase runs
* 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs
* The last 12 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998
* Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-55
* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races
* The last 12 winners were aged 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991
* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)
* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)
* They all had form in Graded races
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had just 1 run that season
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* Last years winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual
* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-64
* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks
* All 35 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost
* 16 of the last 17 winners had ran in Graded Class before
* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France
* Predictably all 37 apprentice riders lost in this race
* Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-56 record
* Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out
* 35 of the last 40 winners placed in their previous chase
* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps
* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase
* 5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2

Posted under Major Horse Races

Lingfield 2.10 – ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  betfred – bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE – I have found 2 similar winners

JEER – I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER – Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips