ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED - MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power bet365 VC * more

Posted under horse racing tips

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York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

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YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

GREAT LEIGHS 7:20 - BRENTWOOD HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Rann Na Cille, Taboor, 6/1 Tanley, 7/1 Linnet Park,
10/1 Cranworth Blaze, 12/1 Scots WﾴHae, Tittle, 14/1
Dubai To Barnsley, Reigning Monarch, 25/1 Young Ivanhoe.

* This is a 5f sprint handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* September and October have had 154 similar races
* This may be the first race I have written up at this track
* Felt it was worth a look in this race
* I am against REIGNING MONARCH
* He has never run at 5f before
* He has also had only 1 run since June
* SCOTS WﾴHAE is opposed as well
* Male horses that come from 3yo handicaps are weak
* With under 9 runs that season they had a 0-72 record
* SCOTS W’HAE fails that and other factors worry me
* He has had just 1 run since April
* He has never run at 5f before
* He is also coming from a 3yo handicap with 42 days off
* Horses that did that absent over a month were weak
* None of them came from a 6f race
* I want to avoid both Maiden runners as they are weak
* Horses that came from maidens were 2-96 in 154 races
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-79
* CRANWORTH BLAZE is a filly from a maiden after 14 runs
* TITTLE is a filly from a maiden with 7 runs
* LINNET PARK is a 3 year old filly absent 42 days
* 3 year old fillies absent over a month won 5 of the 154 races
* None were claimer ridden as she is (0-37)
* None had 13 or more runs (0-33) as she has
* She also has to come from a 3yo handicap and a 6f handicap
* CHARLOTTE GREY is an exposed filly down from 7f
* I can find only 1 winner like that in 154 races
* She had a very recent run and CHARLOTTE GREY has 26 days off
* CHARLOTTE GREY is also drawn in stall 11
* Great Leighs has had 21 races at this trip so far
* Horses drawn 10 or more are (so far) 0-32 in all 5f races here
* That puts me off CHARLOTTE GREY
* Worries me TABOOR is a 10 year old absent 35 days
* There has been 384 low grade handicaps at 5f and 6f
* Horses aged 9 or more - absent a month or more were 0-52
* I extended the search and found the following
* Since 1993 between July and December we have 1442 races
* Thats 1442 races at 5f and 6f in Class 5-6-7 anywhere
* Horses aged 9 or more absent a month or more were 0-156
* I have to question whether TABOOR will be fit enough
* CARMINE ROCK is a 3yo filly beaten 17 lengths last time
* Looked at 3yo fillies that were beaten 10 + lengths last time
* With under 13 runs (she has 7 runs) they were 1-86
* With under 9 runs that season they were 1-108
* When coming from Class 5-6-7 as she does they were 0-107
* With 9st 9lbs or less they were 0-126
* CARMINE ROCK fails all those trends
* She is also drawn 12 which is the worst draw
* YOUNG IVANHOE was beaten 14 + lengths in a 3yo handicap
* Horses that lost by 10+lengths in low grade 3yo handicaps were 0-61
* YOUNG IVANHOE also has to drop down from 7f
* I looked at 3 year olds that came from 5f handicaps
* When they lost by 10 + lengths last time out they were poor
* With 4 or more career runs they were 1-132
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY has that against him
* RANN NA CILLE is a filly absent 35 days
* Fillies absent a month or more coming from 5f races were 4-143
* All 42 aged 4 like RANN NA CILLE lost
* Her absence as an exposed filly would concern me
* There is one horse that stands out a mile statistically
* T A N L E Y should win this race in my view
* I have what I believe to be good arguments against every horse
* I rate TANLEY as having by far the strongest profile
* Horses that were Placed in a 3yo handicap within 2 weeks were 5-17
* That improves when you take out unfit and unfancied ones
* Not worried he has a 0-18 career record - so had several others
* Happy to overlook his draw in stall 10
* This is a 0-50 and he was beaten in a 0-66 last time out in a photo
* He was only beaten by a Marcus Tregoning horse last time
* TANLEY is a very confident bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect - Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f - he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race - he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips