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York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

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YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

GREAT LEIGHS 7:20 - BRENTWOOD HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Rann Na Cille, Taboor, 6/1 Tanley, 7/1 Linnet Park,
10/1 Cranworth Blaze, 12/1 Scots WﾴHae, Tittle, 14/1
Dubai To Barnsley, Reigning Monarch, 25/1 Young Ivanhoe.

* This is a 5f sprint handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* September and October have had 154 similar races
* This may be the first race I have written up at this track
* Felt it was worth a look in this race
* I am against REIGNING MONARCH
* He has never run at 5f before
* He has also had only 1 run since June
* SCOTS WﾴHAE is opposed as well
* Male horses that come from 3yo handicaps are weak
* With under 9 runs that season they had a 0-72 record
* SCOTS W’HAE fails that and other factors worry me
* He has had just 1 run since April
* He has never run at 5f before
* He is also coming from a 3yo handicap with 42 days off
* Horses that did that absent over a month were weak
* None of them came from a 6f race
* I want to avoid both Maiden runners as they are weak
* Horses that came from maidens were 2-96 in 154 races
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-79
* CRANWORTH BLAZE is a filly from a maiden after 14 runs
* TITTLE is a filly from a maiden with 7 runs
* LINNET PARK is a 3 year old filly absent 42 days
* 3 year old fillies absent over a month won 5 of the 154 races
* None were claimer ridden as she is (0-37)
* None had 13 or more runs (0-33) as she has
* She also has to come from a 3yo handicap and a 6f handicap
* CHARLOTTE GREY is an exposed filly down from 7f
* I can find only 1 winner like that in 154 races
* She had a very recent run and CHARLOTTE GREY has 26 days off
* CHARLOTTE GREY is also drawn in stall 11
* Great Leighs has had 21 races at this trip so far
* Horses drawn 10 or more are (so far) 0-32 in all 5f races here
* That puts me off CHARLOTTE GREY
* Worries me TABOOR is a 10 year old absent 35 days
* There has been 384 low grade handicaps at 5f and 6f
* Horses aged 9 or more - absent a month or more were 0-52
* I extended the search and found the following
* Since 1993 between July and December we have 1442 races
* Thats 1442 races at 5f and 6f in Class 5-6-7 anywhere
* Horses aged 9 or more absent a month or more were 0-156
* I have to question whether TABOOR will be fit enough
* CARMINE ROCK is a 3yo filly beaten 17 lengths last time
* Looked at 3yo fillies that were beaten 10 + lengths last time
* With under 13 runs (she has 7 runs) they were 1-86
* With under 9 runs that season they were 1-108
* When coming from Class 5-6-7 as she does they were 0-107
* With 9st 9lbs or less they were 0-126
* CARMINE ROCK fails all those trends
* She is also drawn 12 which is the worst draw
* YOUNG IVANHOE was beaten 14 + lengths in a 3yo handicap
* Horses that lost by 10+lengths in low grade 3yo handicaps were 0-61
* YOUNG IVANHOE also has to drop down from 7f
* I looked at 3 year olds that came from 5f handicaps
* When they lost by 10 + lengths last time out they were poor
* With 4 or more career runs they were 1-132
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY has that against him
* RANN NA CILLE is a filly absent 35 days
* Fillies absent a month or more coming from 5f races were 4-143
* All 42 aged 4 like RANN NA CILLE lost
* Her absence as an exposed filly would concern me
* There is one horse that stands out a mile statistically
* T A N L E Y should win this race in my view
* I have what I believe to be good arguments against every horse
* I rate TANLEY as having by far the strongest profile
* Horses that were Placed in a 3yo handicap within 2 weeks were 5-17
* That improves when you take out unfit and unfancied ones
* Not worried he has a 0-18 career record - so had several others
* Happy to overlook his draw in stall 10
* This is a 0-50 and he was beaten in a 0-66 last time out in a photo
* He was only beaten by a Marcus Tregoning horse last time
* TANLEY is a very confident bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect - Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f - he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race - he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips