Racing At Kempton

Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

TITAN TRIUMPH

Every meeting gets the go ahead today. Some very

interesting and significant Jumping action. Much of it is more Positioning for

Cheltenham. Plenty of races that don’t make any appeal to me as they throw up

short priced favourites or impossible to asses handicaps.

The racing selection for the blog this weekend however is

at Lingfield.

Lingfield 4.05

TITAN TRIUMPH Each Way 100/30 at Corals

There seems to be a school of though that TITAN

TRIUMPH is unproven in this class and has a lot to do. You can definitely make that argument but horses trying exactly what he attempts today have a strong record. I felt he was highly impressive last time and that he meets a mixed bag of unfit and badly treated horses. He will need luck in running as they all do
here but I thought he had a strong chance and is good enough to win.

LINGFIELD 4.00

William Hill JANUARY SALE – BET NOW! HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m

5/2 Titan Triumph, 3/1 Atlantic Story, 5/1 Red Somerset, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts,

8/1 Samarinda, 10/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Kayak, 20/1 Fajr, 20/1 Swiss Act.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-108

* Its a class handicap and there’s been 51 similar races

* ACE OF HEARTS has to go aged 10 absent 107 days

* Thats asking too much as he has a career high mark

* FAYR won this race last year but had a recent run

* He is now a 7 year old absent 56 days

* I don’t want an older horse with a long absence like him

* KAYAK is out as a 7yo absent 42 days

* I don’t want SWISS ACT as he has ran once since June

* CAPRICORN RUN is not too bad statistically

* Not many horses come via conditions races though

* RED SOMERSET comes from that same race

* He is also reasonably fine statistically

* RED SOMERSET has never won in this class though

* He has never won from this handicap mark either

* He has never won off higher than 86 or above 0-90 class

* Today he is off 89 and facing a 0-108

* SAMARINDA is fine statistically but has a tough mark

* He has never won from his current mark

* ATLANTIC STORY has some issues to overcome

* None of the 51 winners came from Listed class as he does

* He is also a 7 year old with a 31 day absence

* He also has a career high mark to overcome

* TITAN TRIUMPH looks the progressive improver

* He has just won his last 4 races

* He has just won 0-74 – 0-75 – 0-80 and a 0-84 handicap

* This is clearly a step up in Class

* To counter that he is a fast improving well handicapped horse

* I looked at horses in 51 races with similar profiles

* Horses that won their last 2 races in Class 3 or lower

* Horses that came into these races like that scored well

* When they came from 8f or longer handicaps they were 6-14

* The Males that tried it starting under 12/1 were 6-12

* This suggests in form improvers can bridge the class gap

* TITAN TRIUMPH is my choice to improve past these

* With many potentially unfit and badly handicapped

* TITAN TRIUMPH may be able to win in this class

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on January 17, 2009

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ELECTROLYSER

This Saturday I have a sample from the analysis section of the Full Member Service

NB This is not a full account bet

DONCASTER  3:10

ToteSPORT NOVEMBER HANDICAP (C2) (3yo+)  1m4f

5/1 Electrolyser, 11/2 Presvis, 8/1 The Betchworth Kid, 10/1 Menwaal, 12/1 First Avenue,  Magicalmysterytour, 14/1 Tastahil, 16/1 Night Crescendo, 20/1 Group Captain,  Tropical Strait,  Young Mick, 25/1 Ajaan,  Hits Only Vic,  Mull Of Dubai, 33/1 Carte Diamond,  CelticSpirit,  Cold Quest,  Ladies Best, 50/1 Acropolis,  Big Robert,  Dunaskin, Greek Envoy,  Wicked Daze.

I have some detailed trends in the November Handicap. I will go through this field quickly and finish off with some horses that are strong statistically and that make any shortlist. I dont want the Topweight PRESVIS in this race. I think his weight is a problem. He fails a serious number of trends in the race not least as a lighter
raced older horse and He is up in trip as well and he simply is not the type  that has won this race and win lose or draw on my angles based on the last 20 renewals of this race PRESVIS had a very poor profile in my view. NIGHT CRESCENDO only fails one of my trends in that no exposed horse or indeed any 4 year old won last
time out and whilst there will be many horses with weaker profiles I didnt want to give him  the benefit of the doubt. YOUNG MICK is in exactly the same boat failing some similar angles. MENWAAL doesnt have the correct preperation for me and has plenty against him and I felt MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR also had a bad profile  and failed several important angles. There are many of these that just dont have good profiles. You will see from the list of trends that its very important to come into this race in form and running well. So many of these dont do that and I would include the following –

BIG ROBERT – CARTE DIAMOND – TROPICAL STRAIT
GREEK ENVOY- GROUP CAPTAIN – HITS ONLY VIC
AJAAN – LADIES BEST – MULL OF DUBAI –  CELTIC SPIRIT
WICKED DAZE

COLD QUEST has a horrible profile. Both ACROPOLIS and
DUNASKIN are  too old. TASTAHIL is just the wrong kind
of 4 year old in this just like the favourite is. Its very hard to judge THE BETCHWORTH KID as he has an unusual profile but I cant find a horse that won this or a similar race at this time of year and my impression is that if a 3 year old was going to come back from a 14f race it would be both lighter raced than he is and would have run better in that race. That said I do think THE BETCHWORTH KID is one of the more interesting runners and I think he is one of the best 3 or 4 runners in the race I feel the same about FIRST AVENUE as well.  FIRST AVENUE  came out quite similar to the 2007 and 1992 winners and the only
angle he fails is a very forgiveable one. Whether he has the resolutionor not I dont know and I dont like cheekpieces on my bet in a race such as this.

STRONGEST PROFILE

ELECTROLYSER

I think this horse has the best profile. He has just 4 runs but he is a very similar type to 2004 winner  CARTE DIAMOND  who also had 4 runs and interestingly came from the same Leicester 3 year old handicap as ELECTROLYSER does. Trip and Ground are fine and I think he has a great chance off a light weight.

Current Best price at time of blog post 4/1 at centrebet and Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips