Lingfield 2.10 - ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  betfred - bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE - I have found 2 similar winners

JEER - I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER - Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

TOWCESTER 3.05

5/4 Ayemdee, 13/8 Cartier Opera, 13/2 Kinkeel,
10/1 Champagne Star, 14/1 My Matilda.

This is another small field Handicap Chase over 2m 6f and
there has been 632 of these races in November -December.
I looked at Mares like MY MATILDA that ran within the
past 2 weeks. There were 7 winners but none ran as badly
as she did last time and none came up from 2m 4f or less so
I see her as having a poor profile. CHAMPAGNE STAR is
also a mare and didnt do enough for me last time and is very
inexperienced over fences. KINKEEL has a very shaky look to his profile.
All three runs this season look awful and with a recent run surely
he hasn’t enough time to bounce back to form. AYEMDEE and
CARTIER OPERA look best and both have ran well in a recent
handicap chase. I looked at all the similar types that have done that.
Both have profiles that won similar races and I like both these horses.
Its arguable AYEMDEE has the better profile. He is younger by 3 years
and less exposed and he doesnt have to step up in distance as CARTIER
OPERA has to do. You could argue his jumping may be safer but I think
CARTIER OPERA is a better bet.

AYEMDEE has only had 1 chase run. I tipped him in that
last time when he won and it was a dreadful race and I just
assumed last time that as it was such a bad race he couldnt
help winning if he could jump. On reflection though I am
more drawn to CARTIER OPERA. This is a huge horse
and took a long time to get on a racecourse. Whatever his
problems the only conclusion you could have is that he was
a well handicapped horse when he won here in November in
a Novice Handicap. That looks a better race than the only
chase run AYEMDEE ran and won in. CARTIER OPERA
won that day off 74. Today he is now only still rated 82.
The question I ask myself is what would he have been rated
had he won a couple more races just as he should have done.

Three runs ago he was going well when unseating rider at
Hereford. He would have bolted in two runs ago at Taunton
but for falling at the last. He should really be on a mark in the 90’s by now.
He jumped round Towcester and placed last time in a Handicap Chase.
If this horse can jump round he is a very well treated horse.
Going up in trip has to help today as it will slow the pace down.
We know he loves thecourse. Yes there are jumping worries but the
small field and longer trip has to help and he has far more chasing
experience than AYEMDEE has had. Dont forget that although
AYEMDEE won on his only Chase start he made mistakes that
day too and wasnt foot perfect. CARTIER OPERA has at least
had much more experience. Given a couple of fewer mistakes in
recent races that he had at his mercy tells me that he would  have
gone up a lot more in the handicaps and would not only  have been
Topweight today - Theres every chance he wouldnt be eligable to be
running in a 0-95 and could have been rated higher than this ceiling.
The horse has proven raw ability on
the Flat. I think given the small field and given he is 2/1 in a race
where few can win CARTIER OPERA is an excellent bet

SELECTION - CARTIER OPERA
2/1 PaddyPower s james Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION - NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Posted under horse racing tips

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 Skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Posted under horse racing tips

***********

York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

****************************************************

YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

****************************************************

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

—————————————————————————
Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
—————————————————————————

Posted under horse racing tips