LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR - CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS - SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 2.10 - ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  betfred - bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE - I have found 2 similar winners

JEER - I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER - Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

TOWCESTER 3.05

5/4 Ayemdee, 13/8 Cartier Opera, 13/2 Kinkeel,
10/1 Champagne Star, 14/1 My Matilda.

This is another small field Handicap Chase over 2m 6f and
there has been 632 of these races in November -December.
I looked at Mares like MY MATILDA that ran within the
past 2 weeks. There were 7 winners but none ran as badly
as she did last time and none came up from 2m 4f or less so
I see her as having a poor profile. CHAMPAGNE STAR is
also a mare and didnt do enough for me last time and is very
inexperienced over fences. KINKEEL has a very shaky look to his profile.
All three runs this season look awful and with a recent run surely
he hasn’t enough time to bounce back to form. AYEMDEE and
CARTIER OPERA look best and both have ran well in a recent
handicap chase. I looked at all the similar types that have done that.
Both have profiles that won similar races and I like both these horses.
Its arguable AYEMDEE has the better profile. He is younger by 3 years
and less exposed and he doesnt have to step up in distance as CARTIER
OPERA has to do. You could argue his jumping may be safer but I think
CARTIER OPERA is a better bet.

AYEMDEE has only had 1 chase run. I tipped him in that
last time when he won and it was a dreadful race and I just
assumed last time that as it was such a bad race he couldnt
help winning if he could jump. On reflection though I am
more drawn to CARTIER OPERA. This is a huge horse
and took a long time to get on a racecourse. Whatever his
problems the only conclusion you could have is that he was
a well handicapped horse when he won here in November in
a Novice Handicap. That looks a better race than the only
chase run AYEMDEE ran and won in. CARTIER OPERA
won that day off 74. Today he is now only still rated 82.
The question I ask myself is what would he have been rated
had he won a couple more races just as he should have done.

Three runs ago he was going well when unseating rider at
Hereford. He would have bolted in two runs ago at Taunton
but for falling at the last. He should really be on a mark in the 90’s by now.
He jumped round Towcester and placed last time in a Handicap Chase.
If this horse can jump round he is a very well treated horse.
Going up in trip has to help today as it will slow the pace down.
We know he loves thecourse. Yes there are jumping worries but the
small field and longer trip has to help and he has far more chasing
experience than AYEMDEE has had. Dont forget that although
AYEMDEE won on his only Chase start he made mistakes that
day too and wasnt foot perfect. CARTIER OPERA has at least
had much more experience. Given a couple of fewer mistakes in
recent races that he had at his mercy tells me that he would  have
gone up a lot more in the handicaps and would not only  have been
Topweight today - Theres every chance he wouldnt be eligable to be
running in a 0-95 and could have been rated higher than this ceiling.
The horse has proven raw ability on
the Flat. I think given the small field and given he is 2/1 in a race
where few can win CARTIER OPERA is an excellent bet

SELECTION - CARTIER OPERA
2/1 PaddyPower s james Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION - NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Posted under horse racing tips