Cheltenham 2014 – Day 2

Mathematician 1840

No Account Bet 

Day 2 of the Festival usually the quietest day for
bets and no account bet today.  I think we have
to be very realistic. The last 3 races on the card
are next to impossible. Tactically it makes sense
to turn these races down and use that time for a
lot of serious races tomorrow. Therefore today is
a 4 race message as only 4 races can be sorted.

I will give my Best Bet from the message which
will send a shiver down the spine of many of you.

My own personal best bet is a variation of this
bet but as this is in the “Without the favourite”
market I can’t go with it as some won’t get on.

 
Today’s Best Bet
 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham Selections

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4

Cheltenham 2.05 – DON COSSACK 14/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.20 – SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham 4.00 – BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.00 – BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Today’s Bets

 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 
Obviously choice is limited from 4 races. I would
not put FAUGHEEN up at a short price but I could
easily have done something with Sire De Grugy,

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1

I did consider the each way double
I also considered 2 win bets and an each way double

My own personal biggest bet today will be this

Cheltenham 3.20

Without The Favourite Market

SOMERSBY 12/1- 14/1 Each Way

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals Paddy Power Chandler
10/1 bet365 9/1 Boyles

Obviously this is “Un-tippable” in a Novelty market
as most people would not get a bet on so Instead
I will go with the following as my best bet today.

Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Saver Bets

Just to clarify the issue with Savers. When I suggest
a saver the purpose is to make sure you break level
on the bet if the saver wins. The main selection will
be the horse to try and get the profit. The saver has
the job of recovering stakes if the main bet loses.

 

Generic Statistics
            
* No Horse Qualifies today
* Partly due to no handicap chases

 

 

Y e s t e r d a y ‘s  S u m m a r y

Very interesting day full of highs and lows with the
worst of it being two account losers. I pointed out
that this was always possible and that the winners
may come in the other races and they did. Happy
enough with a message that went P L L W W L P.

I was pleased we had the Supreme Novice winner
much as that was only as the saver. With Hindsight
I should have gone with the winner but my angles
worked out well and pleased me. Dodging Bullets
could only managed 4th but ran well enough. The
bet on TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way looked
good as he was bowling along nicely in front with
plenty in trouble behind. The problem is that it’s a
hard thing to make all and he paid a bit and then
dropped back. What was incredible was he came
back at them and stayed on and was only beaten
a Neck for 4th place. He was that close to Placing
that it felt unlucky. The Generic Statistics were so
disappointing in the race it was a double blow for
us. Maybe the unusually fast ground was the main
reason those angles did not work out. Overall the
race was a disaster. It got much better with JEZKI
winning the Champion Hurdle at a big price. The
horse has been on my radar for weeks it was just
annoying I couldn’t be more confident. QUEVEGA
was brilliant. We made money on the race which
was the important thing in a low key race. Sadly
jubilation turned to misery with FOXROCK despite
travelling like a really good horse he either paid
for one or two mistakes or didn’t get the trip. The
combination of both killed him. ATTAGLANCE was
a desperately unlucky second. At least we won a
bit each way but he would have won that race if
his jockey hadn’t gone for a gap that wasn’t there.

So overall a 2-0 account bet day is disappointing
but we had winners and no luck at all especially
Tour Des Champs failing to place by a neck after
making all the running and Attaglance robbed by
a bad ride. Given how hard this meeting is I think
we came out of yesterday with plenty of credit.

 

 

P R O F I L E S    &   P R E V I E W S

 

C h e l t e n h a m   1.30

Neptune Investment Management Novices4 Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices4 Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 Faugheen, 7/2 Red Sherlock, 6/1 Rathvinden
12/1 Lieutenant Colonel, 14/1 Ballyalton
20/1 Cup Final, 20/1 Fennell Bay, 25/1 Killala Quay,
0/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 50/1 Cole Harden, 50/1 Knock House
50/1 Shanahan4s Turn, 66/1 Creepy, 100/1 Twelve Roses
200/1 Midnight Thunder.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* Look at the past 10 winners of this race
* They had achieved the following Racing Post Ratings
* Thats the best ratings achieved before they ran in this race
* 156 153 145 161 158 136 147 146 145 148
* 9 of the last 10 winners had a figure of at least 145
* Only Fiveforthree (2008) had not done that
* FENNELL BAY’s best figure is a measly 126
* FENNELL BAY is a 5 year old with 2 hurdle starts
* Miles to find on the numbers I couldn’t touch him
* BALLYALTON has only done a 136 ratings
* He is a 7 year old not the best age either
* LIEUTENANT COLONEL has achieved a 139 RPR
* That means 9 of the last 10 winners achieved more
* I like that he has improved on each performance
* He does have quite a bit to find with a few of these
* KILLALA QUAY – I don’t want a 7yo pulling up last time
* CUP FINAL is a 5yo with 2 hurdle runs
* All the big guns have more hurdle runs
* That should catch him out and he is rejected

Shortlist

* RED SHERLOCK has won all of his 6 races
* His best performance was last time and he is 2-2 here
* I do have some concerns though
* He had a hard race in heavy ground last time out
* I would be worried that took too much out of him
* He is reported to swish his tail once whipped

* RATHVINDEN was 2nd behind Red Sherlook last time
* He had an interrupted preparation before that race
* He doesn’t have much to find as he is 3lbs better off
* Looks a solid each chance with two flaws
* He is not the stable number 1. That is Faugheen
* He is also not the biggest of horses
* RATHVINDEN could easily place here

* FAUGHEEN is Willie Mullins Number 1
* He is unbeaten 3 of which were in hurdles
* Clearly a high class prospect to be considered
 
Conclusion

I think FAUGHEEN has more improvement than
Red Sherlock and is the most likely winner. It’s
tempting to go with RED SHERLOCK each way
given there are issues with FAUGHEEN not least
fluency in his jumping. You could argue a good
case for FAUGHEEN in an each way double too.
There are sorts of staking options here such as
a split stake bet with FAUGHEEN to win and the
place bet on RATHVINDEN. I think we are spoilt
for choice with staking options and much has to
depend on what sort of bets and risk you prefer.
FAUGHEEN – RED SHERLOCK – RATHVINDEN are
my 1-2-3 in that order. I will go with FAUGHEEN

Selection

FAUGHEEN

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

 5/1 Ballycasey, 6/1 Smad Place, 13/2 Morning Assembly
7/1 Carlingford Lough, 8/1 Corrin Wood, 10/1 Don Cossack
10/1 Le Bec, 10/1 Sam Winner, 12/1 O4faolains Boy
14/1 Many Clouds, 16/1 Annacotty, 20/1 Black Thunder
25/1 Just A Par, 33/1 Gevrey Chambertin, 50/1 Samingarry.

* The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 over an extended 3m
* Just a few background statistics to show a certain type
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* They all had at least 3 runs that season as well
* Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days
* The last 49 winners all had a run in the same calendar year
* The last 7 winners were aged 7
* Horses aged 6 have underperformed over the years
* Only 2 have won since as far back as 1978

* ANNACOTTY  is a 6 year old which is a problem
* He technically is not 6 for another month anyway
* The weights suggest he will struggle anyway
* I couldn’t have him from a Novice Handicap
* GEVREY CHAMBERTIN is 6 and far too inexperienced
* LE BEC is not 6 for another 2 months
* With a nasty absence he has to go
* SAMINGARRY is outclassed
* JUST A PAR is too inexperienced and lacks the class
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* BALLYCASEY only has 2 Chase starts a serious worry
* I do not like that lack of inexperience over fences
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* BALLYCASEY only has 6 National Hunt runs
* He just looks short  of experience to me
* 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 9 career starts
* BALLYCASEY is not for me with just 6
* There must be a chance he won’t stay anyway
* His 4 runs over 3m or more were all defeats
* Admittedly 3 were in Point to Points but it’s a worry
* SMAD PLACE has placed in a World Hurdle
* That was one of 7 times he has lost in Grade 1 races
* His 3 Chase runs were all in Non Graded races
* The last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SMAD PLACE lacks that and has a questionable profile
* With 19 runs he’d be the most exposed winner in years
* SMAD PLACE doesn’t do it for me
* Not with a recent heavy ground win
* BLACK THUNDER’s profile is not that bad
* Certainly as good as you could hope for a 25/1 chance
* Held on form there look pacier types against him
* Not keen on his size or his prospects on the ground
* We know the last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SAM WINNER does not have that
* CORRIN WOOD does not have that
* SAM WINNER has run on the flat which isn’t ideal
* He looks a tough more exposed than would be ideal
* Will like the ground but a lack of graded chase form worries me
* CORRIN WOOD also lacks graded chase form
* The other strike against him is his absence
* Longer than any winner since 1991 albeit not by much
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH unseated rider last time out
* Thats not a good sign at all
* The last 26 winners of this race were 1-2-3 last time out
* He is also 8 which isn’t the best age
* He has 19 runs which is more than any recent winner
* He has 13 Chase starts which sounds too many
* Recent winners had 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Chase runs
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH may not be the right type
* MANY CLOUDS is a decent enough chaser
* I don’t mind his profile but he is not my first choice
* Over trips of 19f 20f 21f he is W 2 W 2 W W
* Over trips of 22f or more he is 2 2 PU
* I just don’t like his better record over shorter
* Not keen on his trainer or his record in big fields either
* O4FAOLAINS BOY won the Reynoldstown last time
* That’s not the best of preparations winning that race
* A bit short on experience with 3 Chase runs with a Pulled Up
* Can’t be ruled out but I don’t see enough positives
* MORNING ASSEMBLY has a 73 day absence
* We know the last 49 winners ran in the same calendar year
* That absence is a negative about his profile
* He has never ran away from soft ground either
* These issues and no track form are the main worries
* Otherwise he looks a smart prospect
* DON COSSACK could go well if his jumping holds
* I like his profile and his recent race
* Many will assume he can’t reverse form with Ballycasey
* I wouldn’t be so sure over this 3m trip which
* DON COSSACK has won on good ground
* I see him as the value in the race

Selection

DON COSSACK 14/1

Each Way

 

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   3.20

BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

9/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/2 Captain Conan, 11/2 Arvika Ligeonniere
7/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Hinterland, 10/1 Kid Cassidy
12/1 Sizing Europe 14/1 Module, 14/1 Somersby
20/1 Special Tiara 25/1 Wishfull Thinking.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles

* The form horse is clearly SIRE DE GRUGY
* He tops the Official ratings and Racing Post Ratings
* There are doubts if you want to oppose him
* He has never been to a Cheltenham Festival before
* That’s unusual and his Cheltenham form is questionable
* There is more than a suspicion this may not be his track
* His Jockey is talented but is hardly a positive
* Jamie Moore is 0-55 riding at the festival
* SIRE DE GRUGY has also had a busier season than I’d want
* The last few winners had the following runs that season
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* SIRE DE GRUGY has 5 runs this season
* That is more than the last 17 winners had
* I think there are plenty of doubts about him

* Horses aged 11 + rarely have the Speed to win.
* They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed
* The age of recent winners is as follows
* 9-9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9
* SIZING EUROPE wouldn’t interest me as a 12yo
* This race started in 1959 and only the 1977 winner was 12
* WISHFUL THINKING is 11 and makes limited appeal
* Horses aged 10 haven’t won since 1998

* BAILY GREEN has 21 previous Chase runs which is a lot
* Past winners had the following number of Chase starts
  7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8 22 8 11 18 23 4 24 12 11 11 18 14 9 15 14 8
* The last 8 winners had 7-13 Chase runs
* There are some before that with a similar number of runs
* He was 2nd in an Arkle so should be respected
* He comes here losing his last 9 races though
* Well beaten over hurdles last time doesn’t inspire either
* His 21 Chase runs produced a best 158 Racing Post Rating
* That should not be good enough to win
* There are horses in this race with better ratings last time
* Arvika Ligeonniere, Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy, Wishfull Thinking
* These 4 horses recorded better Racing Post Ratings last time out
* They had better ratings that BAILY GREEN has in 21 Chase starts
* I may be wrong in looking at this approach
* I appreciate the ratings are all under different circumstances
* It still puts me off BAILY GREEN in a Grade 1 off level weights

* HINTERLAND is a 6 year old
* It would worry me he has just 5 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 7 Chase starts
* That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts
* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year
* The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973
* HINTERLAND – You don’t want a 6yo with just 5 Chase runs

* KID CASSIDY has to be given a chance
* His career best run has come over 2m at Cheltenham
* His last run was poor though not a good sign
* 30 of the last 32 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* The only 2 that were not both fell
* No winners have won after such a poor run as he had

* MODULE – I just don’t see enough I like
* SPECIAL TIARA disappointed last time out
* I can forgive that on heavy ground in a small field
* He was beaten here in December over 2m
* He was 3rd behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy
* SPECIAL TIARA was really having his seasonal debut that day
* He’d fallen at the first on his first run of the year
* He has to improve but it’s not a huge amount to find

* ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE has the track to overcome
* 8 of his 9 career wins were going right handed
* His 2 Cheltenham runs were both well below expectations
* So much class I couldn’t rule him out
* There are too many doubts about track and ground

* CAPTAIN CONAN is the type to win at the Festival
* He looked like winning last years Jewson but didn’t stay
* This 2m distance could suit him best of all
* CAPTAIN CONAN has 6 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* CAPTAIN CONAN is 1 short of being ideal
* I can overlook that much as I’d prefer 7 Chase runs
* I also have to overlook just 1 run this season
* Past winners had the following runs that year
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* Only 8yo Flagship Uberalles has won with 1 run this year
* Said to be working well after a back injury
* I see him as a potential winner but I need to turn a blind eye
* To his 6 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
 

Part of me wants to go with CAPTAIN CONAN each way
and to ignore my concerns instead relying on the skills
of Nicky Henderson who is sure to have him close to his
best. Everyone knows ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE’s flaws but
surely 8/1 is a big price. Then I decided to review what
I feared most about SIRE DE GRUGY. I decided to isolate
2m Cheltenham performances on Racing Post Ratings.

Racing Post Ratings
Cheltenham runs only
2 Miles only
Since 2012

174 Sizing Europe
170 Sire De Grugy Sizing Europe
162 Kid Cassidy Wishful Thinking
161 Special Tiara
158 Baily Green
157 Wishful Thinking
155 Somersby
154 Captain Conan
147 Kid Cassidy

Sizing Europe has the best figure and joint 2nd best
which were recorded at the 2012 and 2013 Festivals.
I don’t want to go with him as a 12 year old but clear
2nd best is SIRE DE GRUGY with a course & distance
Racing Post Rating of 170 which is 8lbs higher than
all other runners. This leads me to think that there’s
no real case for saying he doesn’t like the track and
it will surely be difficult to rule him out of the 1-2-3.
It won’t be palatable to some but we are talking just
11 runners of which 4 are outsiders and 1/4 the odds.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 Each Way is a good bet

However

SOMERSBY is 16/1

SOMERSBY is also in the “Without the favourite” market

This is betting without SIRE DE GRUGY

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals Paddy Power Chandler
10/1 bet365
9/1 Boyles

Now I appreciate 10 years old is a bit older than ideal

I appreciate he doesn’t have the best record here and
it is not his course and you can argue he has had his
chance. But he was 2nd in an Arkle and placed in the
Supreme Novice. He has placed in a Grade 1 here as
well and he is effective. It’s not his ideal track but the
horse has some good runs here before.

Besides that people are saying Sire De Grugy doesn’t
like this track and Arvika Ligeonniere hates it as well.

No Sprinter Sacre. This must be the worst Champion
Chase for donkey’s years. He likes a small field and a
quicker surface as well. He surely must be the value

He won the Haldon Gold Cup just 3 runs ago

He was then 2nd in the Tingle Creek just behind Sire De Grugy

Last time he unseated rider but he was only 11/4 to beat
Sire De Grugy in that race and now he is much bigger.

Final Selection

“Without the favourite” market

SOMERSBY 12/1 or 14/1 Each Way

Anyone who can’t get on this market can
bet SOMERSBY each way 16/1 in this race.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   4.00

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
(A Cross Country Chase)  (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f

4/1 Big Shu, 5/1 Balthazar King, 8/1 Sire Collonges
8/1 Star Neuville, 9/1 Love Rory, 10/1 Any Currency
11/1 Quantitativeeasing, 12/1 Bishopsfurze, 14/1 Sizing Australia
14/1 Uncle Junior, 16/1 Diamond Harry, 16/1 Quiscover Fontaine
20/1 A Stray Shot, 20/1 Duke Of Lucca, 25/1 Hey Big Spender
33/1 Sin Palo.

* The Cross Country Chase has 9 past renewals
* DIAMOND HARRY – I don’t think he stays this far
* LOVE RORY – I don’t want a 6 year old in these races
* He is not technically a 6 year old for a few more weeks anyway
* He won a Cross Country race at Punchestown last time
* He beat Big Shu that day but the latter needed the race
* He has no Cheltenham form and has too much to prove
* UNCLE JUNIOR is wrong as an out of form 13 year old
* STAR NEUVILLE doesn’t do it for me
* I don’t like him coming from a 2m 4f race
* Not with just 1 run this season
* The 9 past winners had the following Chase starts
* 7 13 17 48 11 15 14 16 30
* STAR NEUVILLE has only had 5 chase starts
* QUANTITATIVEEASING looks too riSky
* Not sure he has the experience in this discipline
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Not for me on this ground
* BISHOPSFURZE fell on his cross country debut
* Not a good experience and the ground is faster than ideal
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more
* He has yet to show this track suits him
* May win but he has plenty to prove
* SIZING AUSTRALIA is a past winner of this in 2011
* Not sure you can rule him out on ground he likes
* I just don’t want a 12 year old on drying ground
* He was well beaten in last years race
* SIRE COLLONGES – No killer stat to rule him out
* Far from convinced he is good enough though
* ANY CURRENCY has a 9 3 2 cross country record
* Should go well but I don’t think he fully stays this far
* He comes from a handicap chase. No winner did that
* I thought a place was more likely than a win

Shortlist
 
* BIG SHU won this race easily last season
* Huge player again but he is 18lbs higher this year
* He is also very lightly raced this season
* The first 8 winners of this had 5 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 runs that year
* BIG SHU won last year with 1 run and a point to point as well
* My worry is whether he is just short of a run
* He does  have improvement in him so must be considered
* 1 run this year makes him a Saver rather than selection

* BALTHAZAR KING has 117 days off and topweight
* I don’t think that’s an impossible task
* The 2010 winner had 88 days off and that weight
* BALTHAZAR KING won this in 2012 but didn’t run in 2013′s year
* The ground is also in his favour
 
Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet

BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 
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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

National Hunt Chase – Stamina Issues

 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Cheltenham 2.40 pm Wednesday

 

One of the things I hate is listening to self appointed

experts who repeat bland clichés about things like a

horse’s stamina. I hear them churn out that “a horse

will stay all day” and “it won’t fail for lack of stamina.”

Many people look at Sire Statistics to try and find if

a Sire has bred winners over the distance or on the

ground. It is very unscientific but no less so than so

many other different approaches to picking horses.

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Today I want to look at Wednesday’s National Hunt

Chase. Run over 4 miles it is a race where stamina

most definitely comes into play.

A simplistic stamina check is to see if a horse’s sire

has bred winners at long distances.

 

I however want to go the extra mile, dig a bit deeper

and determine if it has done it in the class and on the ground.

 

I have done it this way.

 

* I looked at all the Sires winners

* I found out how many won at 3m 4f or more

* I found out how many have done that on Soft ground

* I found out how many of those did it in Class 3 or more

 

Below you can see my executive summary of this sire research

 

SIRE PERFORMANCE RANKINGS

1) GODSMEJUDGE- Excellent Performance scores

2) MERRY KING – Excellent Performance scores

3) SEA OF THUNDER – Excellent Performance scores

4) VESPER BELL – Enough promise to pass as fine

5) BENHEIR -Enough promise to pass as fine

6) ROSE OF THE MOON – Acceptable scores

7) HIGHLAND LODGE – Acceptable scores

8 ) EMPEROR´S CHOICE – Acceptable scores

9) HAWKES POINT – Not far away but has a bit to prove

10)TOUR DES CHAMPS – Borderline Results

11) BACK IN FOCUS – Stamina not guaranteed

12) RIVAL D´ESTRUVAL – Inconclusive and unproven

13) REAL MILAN – Unproven but small sample size

14) LYREEN LEGEND – Inconclusive and unproven

15) TOFINO BAY – Inconclusive but stamina doubts

16) BUDDY BOLERO – Doubts about stamina

 

For most of you that executive summary will be all you need

to add an element of Sire / Stamina assessment to your own analysis

of this race.

 

I have however posted on our private member message

boards an additional full breakdown of every horse

and a record of the winners the sire has had when

the ground was soft and when running in the class.

I do not want to clutter this piece listing everything.

 

Below however is the section on the current market leader

 

* BACK IN FOCUS

* The Sire has 517 winners

* Record over 3m 4f or more is 7-97

* Record on Softer Ground over 3m 4f + is 4-80

* Softer Ground at 3m 4f in Class 3 + is 1-24

* There is a slight problem here

* Minella Four Star won the 2011 Midlands National

* That was 4m 1f in Listed Class on Good to Soft

* That was the winner in the 1-24 record

* Officially it was Good to Soft that day

* It was actually good ground as it dried out

* You could see this as a 0-23 or a 1-24 record

* Depends which side of the fence you want to sit

* Results and Assessment of his Stamina Profile

* 0-23 or 1-24 record. Stamina not quite certain

 

This analysis leads me to believe there are stamina doubts

about this horse.

 

Bear in mind however that stamina and sire analysis is only one

piece of the puzzle.

I have many more checks to do before considering

my own final selection for this race on Wednesday.

 

I do hope you are with me as a client under of discounted and

guaranteed Cheltenham deal at that point.

Here is the cheap deal link

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

PS New clients who joined us for last Saturday

have already had their bank rolls boosted for Cheltenham.

Three advised tips – Won 4/1 – 2nd at 7/1 to land each way advice

and a yet to run long odds ante post tip for Cheltenham day 1

 

 

PPS If you are a bit of a stat head and would like a copy of the

stamina stats for the other runners in this race, just contact me and say so

clearly. I will pass them on to you.

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on Betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Festival Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Cheltenham Festival

Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Today I want to give you a statistic to bear in mind

for next week’s Handicap Chases. That’s any and

every Handicap Chase except the Novice Handicap.

I have examined all Handicap Chases run in the

last 15 years and more. Because it involves every

handicap it’s a solid trend.

 

* All Handicap Chases at the Cheltenham Festival

* I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase

* All 19 that tried to do this Lost with these results

* 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU PU 12 14 8

* None of the 19 horses Placed 1-2-3 in these races

Many people think you want a lightly raced chaser

thats improving from Novice Company and there is

no problem at all with that sort of horse. However

whilst many festival handicap chases are won by

horses that come from Novice Chases there hasn’t

yet been one that has been won by a horse that is

coming from a Novice Handicap. Admittedly only

19 of these tried but they all finished 4th or worse.

 

 

Cheltenham Deal Now Live

I have had many emails this week asking if and when our Cheltenham
deal would go live.

Today is the day

See www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Key Points:

  • You get a heavily discounted first month of full membership
    here
  • Arguably the most in depth Cheltenham Analysis around.
  • Your month will also include the major Grand National
    Festival at Aintree
  • Rock solid Guarantee. Decide AFTER Cheltenham if we provided
    you top class value or not.

 

 

Should I join Now or just before Cheltenham?

I would say right now. You get immediate access to full service
membership.

There will be a fair bit of action this weekend to look forward
to with the likes of the Imperial Cup and Sandown to get stuck
into.

A few days of feet finding as a member will do you no harm
before Cheltenham starts on Tuesday.

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS I will back tomorrow with further free Cheltenham nuggets
of info.

Not quite sure what with yet but it might be a look at an
individual Cheltenham race from a stats and trends point of
view.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Newbury Racing Tip

Newbury  4.10

5/6 Unioniste, 7/2 Hadrian4s Approach
4/1 Our Father, 6/1 Same Difference
150/1 Henry Hurst.

* This is a 3m Novice Chase
* I see this as an interesting little race
* UNIONISTE upset me last time back in December
* He was a 4yo running in a Cheltenham handicap chase
* I oppose him that day for this reason
* No 4yo had ever won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase before
* I was upset when UNIONISTE broke that statistic
* He made a Mug of me so I dont underestimate him
* He will also improve at this distance today
* However he is now 5 and this is Febuary
* I looked at every 3m Novice Chase in Febuary
* Horses aged 5 had a weak 1-26 record
* The only winner was a horse called Japhet
* He started 2/9 favourite long odds on
* He only won a 3 runner race and he had Grade 1 form
* All the other 5 year olds trying this were beaten
* UNIONISTE – He cant appeal at odds on
* HENRY HURST is outclassed
* SAME DIFFERENCE has quite a lot to prove
* OUR FATHER – I suppose he has to be respected
* Funny horse who probably needs to be fresh
* I think he flopped last time as the race came too soon
* Hard to read we cant know if he will hold his form
* There seems a safer option to me

* This horse has a good profile
* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Grade1-2 Chase
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W W W W 3 F W
* Thats a 6-8 record
* The last to try won in 2010 (Burton Port)
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH is the selection

Selection

HADRIAN’S APPROACH 3/1
Quite a lot of 3/1 or more about earlier when full members got this
but now only sportingbet at those odds. You are looking at 11/4 perhaps as sportingbet who are not exactly renowed as a high stakes layer will cave in quickly no doubt.

Best Live Odds  available here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-02-09/newbury/16-10/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips