For your info yesterday we advised a Full Bet to Members
to back EXMOOR RANGER & THE RAINBOW HUNTER
both each way at circa 25/1.

So first Full bet this week Lost. I suppose at the 25/1 prices
it couldn’t have been unexpected. I have never been one to
focus on short priced winners. At the end of a season you
don’t count winners you count profits. Planning to play in
a few Handicap Chases this week but yesterdays race
got the better of me and we ended up 1-0 down. Not
the result I expected. THE RAINBOW HUNTER did
not run badly for a while but didnt jump well enough
to keep in touch with them when they quickened and
faded. EXMOOR RANGER finished 6th with most bookies going 5 places
and it is hard to know if a slow start when detached and left behind
the field made any difference. Looked as if he may get
placed at one stage but neither ran well enough and we
got nothing back.

The full member message held its own for most
of the other races.
SPIRIT SON – REALT DUBH – SPARKY MAY and
GARDE CHAMPETRE all suggested each way
placed comfortably enough.

Onto Today

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

140th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders? Novices? Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

Forecast Odds

7/2 Alfa Beat, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Beshabar, 7/1 Some Target
12/1 Aberdale, 12/1 Sona Sasta, 14/1 Arabella Boy, 14/1 Chamirey
20/1 Be There In Five, 20/1 Glenwood Knight, 20/1 Pearlysteps
25/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 On His Own
40/1 Regal Approach, 50/1 Double Pride, 100/1 Carlas Dream.

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* I would want at least 4 runs that season
* Only 1 of the last 17 winners had under 4 runs that year
* That was the 1998 winner who was different class
* The last 18 winners had the following races that year
* 4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4

* BESHABAR only has 2 runs this season
* That worries me especially as he is older than ideal
* His 3 Chase runs have hardly set pulses racing yet
* SONA SASTA also has just 2 runs this season
* Thats not enough for me as he’s just 2 Chase starts
* You really want at least 1 more chase runs
* I think that will catch him out
* Especially as most past winners had more backclass
* Most also had a more recent run
* SONA SASTA is rejected
* CARLAS DREAM looks outclassed
* DOUBLE PRIDE has a poor preparation
* PEARLYSTEPS is statistically not quite right
* I dont like horses aged 8 or more from 2m 6f or less
* They have a 1-31 record in this race
* That winner had 6 runs that season not 4 like him
* That winner won last time and had a recent race
* PEARLYSTEPS doesnt offer me enough
* I also feel here is a stamina doubt there
* His sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* REGAL APPROACH is 8 and comes from 2m 4f
* No winner had a similar profile and I dont like him
* ABERDALE is owned by Trevor Hemmings
* Both the owner and the sire have won this race before
* I thought he had only one problem a 112 day break
* He was due to run a few weeks ago but had a setback
* That could leave him short for this race
* 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* He is not for me with a long absence
* CAPTAIN AMERICO is a 9yo with 13 + runs
* Not the best age but older horses can and do win
* What troubles me is they all had 9 + runs this year
* Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won
* They had 9 and 10 races that season
* CAPTAIN AMERICO has only had 4 runs
* Not enough for a 9 year old with 13 + runs
* Horses aged 6 have a weak record in this race
* I would be very dubious about these horses
* MAJOR MALARKEY pulled up at Haydock last time
* I looked at horses from handicaps with 9 or more runs
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-25
* Those that ran within a Month like him were 0-44
* None Pulled up of fell last time and none came from 27f +
* MAJOR MALARKEY doesnt have a great preparation
* ON HIS OWN looks too inexperienced with 2 runs
* Short of runs this year I’d ignore him
* BE THERE IN FIVE won 11 days ago
* Horses with recent runs have struggled in this race
* I’d have prefered at least 1 more run this season
* I also feel there is a genuine stamina doubt

SHORTLIST

* ALFA BEAT was a big gamble last week
* His problem is he has not ran in 182 days
* We know 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* Neither of the ones that didnt were as exposed as him
* With 11 Chase starts he has had more than ideal
* He doesnt leap off the page to me with that absence
* He comes here  with a W W W W W record
* Soemone clearly thinks he has improved again
* Surely 9/2 is short enough anyway with his absence

* CHICAGO GREY is having his 10th Chase start
* Happy with his general exposure
* It worries me he has had 9 runs since last July
* Thats a long time on the go for a race like this
* The winner in 1993 had 10 runs that season
* There are a few little niggles I have with him
* No past winners came from a Grade 1 race like him
* His Sire hasn’t had a 4m winner yet
* May mean nothing but you do need a stayer here
* He had the speed to win a 2m race over hurdles last year.
* I see his absence of 78 days one of his big problems.
* Only 2 of the last 16 winners were absent 7 + weeks
* Both were lighter raced than he is
*  I see him more as Neutral than negative

* CHAMIREY has quite a good profile
* I would have to make him a positive
* I do have some reservations with him
* I can’t match him as closely as I’d like
* He has made mistakes in all 4 of his Chases
* He wont get away with that here
* I also wonder if he will stay 4 Miles here
* His sire’s had a 3m 7f winner (Laddoudal)
* None have won at 4 miles yet

FAVOURED SELECTIONS

* ARABELLA BOY is a 6 year old
* I wonder if he will stay 4 Miles
* His Sire has a 1-48 record with runners at 3m 3f +
* He has sired a Midland Grand National winner (4m1f)
* Thats takes a lot of the doubt away
* Only 1 from 48 over 3m 3f isnt impressive though
* I dont mind the 6yo statistic too much
* Only 1 have won but that doesnt tell the true story
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* He has a recent run and is one of the fittest horses
* ARABELLA BOY has experience on his side

* SOME TARGET has just won at 3m 4f on soft ground
* He is the right age and has the right exposure
* He also has a more recent run than several here
* His right handed track form doesnt worry me
* Plenty of handicappers have won this race
* He does look a solid option to me

I’d Suggest a Split Stake Bet

SOME TARGET 7/1 – Half your stake to win
7/1 At Several spots inc Tote Paddy Power Ladbrokes

ARABELLA BOY  – Half your stake each way
You can get 11/1 Sporting Bet paying 4 places

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

A small snippet from the full member message today for you.

to learn more about the full service click here ==> Betting Advice

LINGFIELD 3.25

Hollow Lane Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f

9/4 Lovers Causeway, 5/1 King Olav, 6/1 Distinctive Image
6/1 Taaresh, 8/1 Mighty Clarets, 8/1 Scamperdale
14/1 Record Breaker, 20/1 Pelham Crescent
25/1 Mister New York, 100/1 Rugell.

This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-91 and we have 176 similar races at this time of year.
Taking a few of these out It is hard to see RUGELL winning.
PELHAM CRESCENT doesnt look fit or ready to win.
MISTER NEW YORK looks unsafe to me.
SCAMPERDALE ‘s done all his winning at 10f and shorter and may not be at his best trip.
He’s 9 and comes up in distance and the only horses his age doing that had Group Class
form in the past and he does not.
RECORD BREAKER is another up in trip.
For him to have matched any winners he needed to have a more recent run
and ran better last time out. TAARESH won a 12f handicap last time out.
It was a weaker race and he won it
with a long absence. It bothers me he moves from 0-75 to this 0-91 grade and has a 10lbs higher mark.
He is up 2 grades and with 1 run only since last June I think he’s unsafe.
I don’t have a big problem statistically with DISTINCTIVE IMAGE but
we have better profiles and he doesn’t look well handicapped. I do respect
KING OLAV but I prefer others in this race.
I thought  MIGHTY CLARETS came out well but there is a strong profile.

* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has a strong profile
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a 12f Handicap last time
* Running within 2 weeks
* Carrying less than 9st 9lbs
* No form beyond a Class 3 Grade before
* Between 9 and 20 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 8-11 record
* Those ridden by Professional jockeys were 8-9
* They finished W W W W 3 W W W W
* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has that profile

SELECTION – LOVERS CAUSEWAY

currently 5/2 at s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION – MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , bet365

Best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Posted under horse racing tips

This is a copy of a member message sent on Friday.
The advised 33/1 has now gone but 22/1 is available right now on William Hill

Out of interest Skybet are offering 6 places instead of the usual 4 on this race today.

NEWMARKET 3.40

ToteSPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+)  1m1f

1 Ante Post Bet

Cambridgeshire Handicap (Saturday)
Newmarket 3.40

GREYLAMI  28/1

£25 Each Way

33/1 Hills – VC -Boyles -Spbet -
28/1 bet365 -Tote – Blue Squareuare -888sport
25/1 Ladbrokes -Corals – s james – Sky
25/1 Paddy Power – betfred

Decided to go with a bet in the Cambridgeshire
Not statistically perfect but I have
set the bar so high statistically that I can find
fault with everything and I spent most of the
day on the race yesterday and happy that he
is overpriced and has a better chance than lots
of better fancied runners. We dont have many
bets in big handicaps and you can always expect
to lose in these races but we have earnt a crack
at the race this week so Greylami is a full bet.

SELECTION – GREYLAMI Each Way 28/1

The Cambridgeshire is a 9f Handicap for horses rated 0-109
and there is a long history to this race. The Maximum field
of 35 runners makes it a very hard race but there are a lot of good statistics in the race
to narrow the field down. All my trends in the race are given.
You may wish to apply them all yourselves and come up with a different conclusion.
I have tightened the statistics to the point where they are so tough for a horse to pass
that any horses that fail one trend would still be seen as a possible winner.
Its the horses that fail far more than one trend and are consistently coming up
short that I want to oppose. No point writing detailed paragraphs about 100/1
no hopers so I will just narrow the field down.

HORSES  FAILING MULTIPLE ANGLES

STEVIE THUNDER – BENCOOLEN -ELLEMUJIE
GRANSTON – FIGHT CLUB – TARTAN GIGHA
THE CAYTERERS – SMOKEY OAKEY -MARAJAA
KAOLAK – DOCOFTHEBAY -MOYNAHAN
SUPASEUS – GENERAL ELIOTT – KING OLAV
HOWDIGO -  ALFATHAA – NANTON

* SHAVANSky did not do enough last time
* He had a shaky profile anyway
* His recent for is just not good enough to win
* CREDIT SWAP looks weak to me
* Statistically he is not suitable
* On the go too long this season
* His 3 wins in Summer leave him badly handicapped
* Never won above Class 4 before
* He has the worst draw in stall 1
* Claimer ridden he should be well beaten
* HILLVIEW BOY doesnt have enough positives
* He has ran every month since March 2009
* Its not a traditional preperation
* There are not enough positives to overlook any flaws
* I feel the same about KAY GEE  BE as well
* As an exposed 5yo his flaws cant be forgiven
* ALAZEYAB doesnt fit the right profile
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* ALAZEYAB has 10 runs
* He doesnt fit with a past winner well enough
* His form in Pattern Class also weakens his profile
* So to does his inability to place last time
* He probably isnt his owners number 1 anyway
* ALAZEYAB is unlikely to be the one
* THE WHICH DOCTOR isnt out of this at big odds
* I have found 2 reasonably similar winners
* I have found 1 quite similar winners
* What bothers me is he comes from a Class 4 handicap
* No horse in the last 22 years came from this class
* Moving from a 0-82 to a 0-109 is a serious leap
* More so for a horse thats had 17 runs already
* Thats a big problem for me and I oppose him
* WANNABE KING looks wort considering
* He is a 3yo coming here with a W W W record
* He doesnt come from a Grade 1 track
* We know 19 of the 20 winners did that
* He is a 3yo from an 8f handicap
* Horses aged 3 doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 3 year olds with a penalty were just 1-27
* He just misses out from having a strong profile
* He may find this class from his rating just too much
* Certainly has a chance though
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER isnt dead statistically
* There hasnt been a similar 3yo winner though
* None had pattern form as he does
* They all managed to place last time and he didnt
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* I think there are better options
* BUSHMAN fails far too many trends for me
* Only 1 winner since 1987 ran in a Group race
* He just looks the wrong type for the race
* APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly and all 21 of those lost
* She is very inexperienced and lightly raced this year
* Three runs this year may not be enough for a filly
* All 3yo winners had more runs this year and were male
* They all managed to place last time as well
* She was impressive last time finishing fast
* It was only a Fillies handicap though
* She will be well handicapped but I cant bet her
* She isnt proven statistically and no winners were similar
* SALUTE HIM fails far too many angles
* Exposed with an absence and few runs this year
* I couldnt argue a good case for him
* ALMIQDAAD is a lightly raced 3 year old
* He has just 3 runs this year
* All winning 3 year olds had more runs this year
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before either
* His Group race form is a worry
* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had Group race form
* That 1-121 record has to be a worry
* He also has a penalty and just 1-27 overcame that
* ALMIQDAAD is nearly there
* He just does not have as safe a profile as I’d want

P O S S I B L E S

* ROYAL DESTINATION was well beaten last time
* We know horses well beaten last time are awful
* However last years winner was the only horse to win
* That winner was very similar to ROYAL DESTINATION
* He was lightly raced and aged 4 as well
* He came from the same Newbury Handicap as well
* Last years winner had topweight in the Newbury race
* ROYAL DESTINATION also had topweight
* Whilst last years winner was hampered he wasnt
* ROYAL DESTINATION shaped like he needed that race
* It may be that he needs 1 more run
* His trainer has 3 in the race and he looks the 2nd string
* ROYAL DESTINATION has a chance but doubts remain
* TRYST has had 4 career starts
* That makes him less experienced than all past winners
* Horses with under 5 runs were 0-14
* The best they managed was a 3rd and 4th place
* TRYST has won just 1 race
* 19 of the last 20 winners had won more races
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Another problem is so few come via non handicaps
* He is nearly there but he doesnt match a past winner
* SIRVINO has a long 84 day absence
* The 3 winners that did that were all aged 4
* They all had under 13 career runs
* SIRVINO survives that problem
* He is not dissimilar to Pasternak
* He also won this after winning the Magnet Cup
* Horses aged 4 with 9-12 runs and 10 weeks off were 2-3
* You can argue he has more runs this year than the others
* Statistically he isnt too bad but I am a bit worried
* He has risen 36lbs in the weights this season
* He started the year off 65 and thats hardly a sign of class
* I doubt many past winners started the year off 65
* Winning off 101 with a long absence isnt easy
* SIRVINO is a possible but it wont be easy
* SWOP was 3rd in last years race
* He did that from a very poor draw
* He also came from last place after half way
* SWOP deserves maximum respect
* He does not fail any of my statistics
* Few other horses in this race can say the same
* I thought he really caught the eye last time
* I would like a few lbs less weight
* We havent had a winner his age carry so much weight
* Thats a worry but he looks a serious runner
* CHARM SCHOOL has a good profile
* He looks strong statistically from the best trial race
* Some question whether 9f will be far enough
* I wouldnt criticise him on that point
* Not with his profile solid in other areas

S E L E C T I O N

GREYLAMI  25/1 – 33/1

Each Way

This has been a Cambridgeshire with very few significant
gambles and it’s clear there isnt one outstanding candidate
as the market suggests. There are several potential winners
but they all have something or other to overcome. I do like
SWOP a lot but the weight will be very hard to carry and I
didnt think he would give 15lbs to GREYLAMI.

GREYLAMI has just beaten TRYST . I think he can again.
SIRVINO is a danger but you have a good chance of beating
any horse with an absence of 12 weeks. CHARM SCHOOL
has a solid chance but he has not made any big waves in the market and doesnt come
without question marks. I’m happy GREYLAMI has a great each way chance at a big price.
He does have some issues statistically but that doesnt worry me.

Statistically I have set the bar so high that everything will fail angles in this race and I
have made them as demanding as I can. I would be happier if he has 1 less run and 1
less run this year but I can live with that. Statistically I respect him and he resembles the
1996 winner Clifton Fox closely. Whilst he comes from a conditions race and I would
prefer a handicap that did not stop another very similar type in Blue Bajan finishing
second in 2006 from the same race with a very similar profile. I dont see any strong
reasons  why he cant go very close in this race with just 8st 5lbs.

He showed a nice turn of foot last time and would have won
had he not been mugged on the line. I think you want a horse conditioned at 10f  and
every recent winner had proven form over further than 9f. He has won in a big field like
almost all recent winners. It may be something less progressive beats him but there is
no guarantee of that as most of the lighter raced horses have flaws and he is fit and
in form with a recent run and gets weight from almost anything that matters in the race
and I think he should go very well.

****************************************************
****************************************************

CAMBRIDGESHIRE STATISTICS

* There has been 20 renewals Since 1989
* Horses from 3yo handicaps are only 1-45 in 20 years
* Horses with Less than 5 career starts 0-10
* Horses with between 5 and 12 career races are best
* Only 4 of the last 19 winners were exposed
* Those with over 21 career starts were 4-234
* Horses with 21 + runs were weak in these areas
* Exposed horses with under 7 runs that season were 0-56
* Exposed horses aged 4 (1-56) aged 5 (0-67)
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more (0-49)
* Exposed horses with a 32 + days absence are 0-40
* Exposed horses that are female are 0-27
* Exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-113
* Exposed horses that have penalties (1-24)
* Exposed horses not 1st or 2nd last time were 1-196
* Exposed horses coming from non handicaps are 0-41
* Exposed horses with 9st or more are 1-75
* Horses with 13 + Career races had a 6-422 record
* Horses with 13 + runs and less than 5 this year were 0-57
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3 are 0-35
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 5 are 0-106
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3-4-5 are just 2-305
* Those in the 2-305 record with Pattern class form 0-119
* Both that did it had very light weights 8st 2lbs or less
* Horses with 13 + runs with Group 1-Group 2 form are 0-40
* Horses with 13 + runs without a run in a month are 0-95
* Horses with 13 + runs beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-190
* Horses with 9 or more runs this season are appalling (1-161)
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season all had under 13 runs
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-45)
* 19 of the last 20 winners came from a Grade 1 track
* 5 Year Olds have a 0-119 record – but not many were fancied
* Horses aged 8 or more have never won (0-21)
* All 3 year old had a 6-190 record
* They all had between 5 and 12 career starts
* Those with less (0-9) and more (0-35)
* All 3 year old winners had at least 4 runs that year
* All 3 year old winners lacked any headgear
* No 3 year old winners had ran in Listed-Group class before (0-43)
* All 3 year old winners were Male
* All 3 year old winners with a penalty had a 1-27 record
* All 3 year old winners were 1st 2nd 3rd last time out (others 0-78)
* All 3 year old winners came from a Class 3 or Class 2 race
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46)
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 4 year old winners that had 5-12 starts had a 6-65 record
* 4 year old winners that had 13 or more runs had a weak 2-164 record
* Both were very lightweighted horses
* 4 year olds who ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-85
* All 4 year old winners lacked any headgear
* All 4 year old winners ridden by a claimer are 0-49
* All 4 year old winners not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-25
* All 4 year old winners came from handicaps
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Horses aged 6 or 7 won the race 5 times in the last 20 years
* Horses aged 6 or 7 all had at least 5 runs that season
* All 4 winners aged 6 or 7 ran within the previous 3 weeks
* Horses that ran in listed or group class before were 3-239
* None ran in Group 1 (0-38) or Group 2 before (0-20)
* Since 1993 they had a 1-199 record
* No horse with Pattern form had under 13 runs (0-55)
* None had under 5 runs this season (0-49)
* Horses aged 3-4-5 with listed or group class form are 0-171
* Horses with listed or group class form were all male
* They all came via handicaps
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were only 1-134
* Horses with pattern form with under 5 wins were 0-160
* Horses with pattern form and 9st 5lbs or more were 0-48
* Horses aged 5 or more are best running within 3 weeks
* Those that were absent over 3 weeks were 1-132
* If a horse has over a Months absence it may be a certain type
* It should have under 13 runs (others 0-95)
* It should have under 6 runs this season (others 0-82)
* It will have ran in Class 2 or no higher
* Horses absent a Monththat ran in Listed-Group class before are 0-62
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* 7lbs claimers are 0-32

* Horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are appalling (1-257)
* That winner was last year though
* Horses from the 9f handicap at Goodwood recently are 0-30
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are just 1-198
* Horses from Listed Class last time had a 0-34 record
* Horses from Class 4 or lower had a 0-72 record
* Horses dropping in trip from 10.5f or more are 0-32
* Horses coming from a Conditions race are just 1-115
* Horses with 2-7 Career wins won 19 of the 20
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more (1-48) underperform
* Most winners had been laid out for the race.
* Usually they had not started their season until June
* Either that or they had a 6 week break at some stage

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Posted under horse racing tips