Saturday Febuary 28th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Kempton 5.05

THE BISHOP’S BABY

Win Bet around 7/2- 4/1- 9/2

Currently 4/1 at William Hill , Ladbrokes , CentreBet , BlueSq

I have spent a lot of time on Bumper at
Kempton where THE BISHOP’S BABY has a massive
chance and I think she may win this. If she had been
trained by a bigger yard and also had a professioanal
on board I would have made her a full account bet as
an each way bet or with a saver in the race. I think
she will either bolt up or run into something above
average which is unlikely. The other problem is with
these races we have no control over prices so I will
make her a selection only. If she wins around 4/1 I
will have done my job well for a Saturday.

Have to go where the statistics take
me and THE BISHOP’S BABY is favoured as a bigger
price than most of these handicap options yet faces
nothing like as much opposition. Just the One bet on
Saturday but much to pick over elsewhere.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

I was hindered yesterday for the full member message
and lost a lot of time with some
connection problems and I didnt have a bet because of it.
If I had just gone with one it probably would have won as
I count 10 selections in yesterdays message and these 10
produced a W W W W W 3rd W W 2nd W record which was
pretty spectacular. Not going to let it get to me and will
carry on as planned. Shorter Messages. Finding some bets
that are stronger than we have had recently and get some
profit racked up as quickly as we can

KEMPTON 5.05

betfred BINGO MAIDEN OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Aconitum, 5/1 Artist’s Moon, 5/1 The Bishops Baby,
11/2 Time To Think, 7/1 Divine Intavention, 7/1 Loana
Shell, 8/1 Mintiverdi, 12/1 Robo, 14/1 Genies Lamp, 33/1
Rapid Connection, 100/1 Patrick Dee.

* This is a Maiden Bumper over 2 miles
* Febuary and March have seen 48 of these races
* Rapid Connection- Patrick Dee look outclassed
* Fillies and Mares have a poor 5-172 record
* With 1 career run they are 0-73
* LOANA SHALL fails that
* No mare was absent as long as GENIIES LAMP
* Febuary and March have seen 490 Bumpers
* These are all maiden and non maiden races
* Unraced females are 13-702 a 1.85% strike rate
* Thye score badly but cant be entirely ruled out
* However I would want to oppose these runners
* MINTIVERDI – TIME TO THINK are opposed
* Both are unraced females and I dislike that
* ROBO is unraced at 16/1 and not for me
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in 490 similar races
* Those absent 7 weeks or more were 1-107
* ACONITUM fails that and also comes from a 3yo race
* Horses that did that were 1-33
* ARTIST´S MOON has to be respected from Hendersons
* However he is a once raced 4yo losing by 59 lengths last time
* 4 year olds with 1 run losing by 25 + lengths were 4-276
* Since 1997 that record was just 1-172
* Those that didnt run in 2 weeks were 1-215
* I dont see where the improvement comes from

SHORTLIST

DIVINE INTAVENTION – THE BISHOPS BABY

DIVINE INTAVENTION ran a strong 5th on his debut
and is statistically strong and I like his chance in this. THE BISHOPS BABY is also highly interesting as the only horse with 2 runs something that last years winner had. I think this pair have the strongest chance by far in this race. Video analysis leads me to the following. THE BISHOPS BABY has already clocked a higher  RPR than the average winners of these races.

SELECTION

SELECTION – THE BISHOPS BABY E/W

SAVER – DIVINE INTAVENTION

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To Visit My main Site    click Here UK Horse Racing Tips

Best Wishes

Guy

Mathematician-Betting

Posted under Main Content

Saturday October 25th

Below is a snippet from my full member message today

Newbury 4.30

BLAZING BAILEY 5/2

BLAZING BAILEY is one of those “If” horses. He is a handicap certainty. He has to win “If” he is fit and “If” he can reproduce his form back on the flat. That makes it possible that he could either win this on the bridle or get beaten out of sight and few will have a confident idea which is more likely. I take the view that at 11/4
he could be the bet of the weekend and off the handicap mark he has he has to be backed and I will be surprised if he is beaten. He could well be Account Status. I have tipped many Account Bets with less confidence than I have in him but as I can not if asked assure you of his fitness I can not really make him one but he looks good to me and looks the best bet today.

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N E W B U R Y

I want to avoid most of Newbury today. Only the last race makes any betting appeal. I dont want to spend much time on the juvenile maidens or the big 2yo races as the angles in these races are not good enough to profit from. MONITOR CLOSELY would have to be the selection in the 1.10 race especially as I dont fancy King’s Song but these short priced maidens in big fields are usually best placed in each way doubles and with unknown dangers it only takes one to lower his colours. I would expect him to just about win.

I would have to mention BLAZING BAILEY though in the 4.30 race. Despite being a 6 year old that has not run since April he has been over hurdles for several years now where he has Top Class staying form over hurdles including a placed effort on the Triumph Hurdle and the Stayers Hurdle and a Grade 1 hurdle win in Ireland. This is a horse that
hasn’t seen the Flat since October 2005. Back then he was rated 62 on the Flat. His Hurdling Career has taken off and he was now reached a rating of 163 so he is now 101 lbs lower rated on the Flat and he has to be thrown in off 62. Normally an unscientific guide would be that you could expect to see a hurdles rating about 40-45lbs better than a
flat rating so for BLAZING BAILEY to have one 101 lbs higher does suggest that if he is anything near fit he must surely go close off a low Flat rating of 62. He looks a Handicap good thing to me and he may well end up as the best bet this weekend assuming he can run to form after an absence.

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11/4 earlier when full members got this. Best Price now 5/2 in several places including Ladbrokes, betfred and PaddyPower

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Posted under horse racing tips