Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Visually a superb day’s racing. There seems to be a lot of
really big priced horses in today’s message for full members
including a full Account Bet at 10/1 ish.

Here on the free blog however we have just the one race for you.

Not as strong in my opinon as the full member Account Bet
but an interesting runner at a good price.

NB If you abit more serious about your racing I suggest you join as a full member http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

You will get the full message not just one race snippets and all through the week not just on a Saturday. All historic messages are availalbe for you to view.  Also take a nose around the private forums to see what other racing brains are coming up with or have spotted. There is a no quibble refund guarantee to protect you if youdecide its not your personal cup of tea.

Anyhow  on to today..

WARWICK 2.50

Bet Totepool To Support Your Sport
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-120) 3m1f

11/4 Sonny Mullen, 4/1 Winterwood, 5/1 Kristoffersen,
6/1 Oscar Prairie, 10/1 Merigo, 14/1 Mealagh Valley
16/1 Quelqu´un Comme Toi, 16/1 Radmores Revenge
16/1 Very Cool, 20/1 Inghwung, 25/1 Honour High.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
* Febuary has seen 89 similar handicaps
* There’s been 288 similar races between January-March
* SONNY MULLEN comes from 17f and has 4 runs
* I looked at 288 similar races over a 3 month period
* 9 of  the 288 winners came from 17f or shorter
* None had under 5 career starts like SONNY MULLEN
* Horses from any Novice race over 16f-17f were 0-38
* SONNY MULLEN also fails that
* Horses from 17f or less with over 11st were just 1-61
* SONNY MULLEN fails that as well
* Throw in an absence and he looks vulnerable to me
* Horses with 1 run this season concern me
* Especially when having 9 or more runs
* Especially when having no backclass
* RADMORES REVENGE doesnt look fit and fails that
* INGHWUNG is a mare with 1 run that year
* HONOUR HIGH also looks weak with one run
* MERIGO is thrown in on his hurdles form
* Rated 130 over fences he is running here off 110
* That makes him very interesting
* However there are some concerns
* Hard to know if he can translate his form to hurdles
* Hard to know if he is anywhere near fit
* It surely looks a prep race for a long distance chase
* MERIGO is 9 with 1 race that season
* He has no form in Listed or Graded races either
* Look at all 9 year olds with 1 race that season
* Look at the ones with no form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-67
* MERIGO has an unfit profile statistically
* MEALAGH VALLEY has a poor profile absent 688 days
* I dont see him overcoming that with just 4 runs
* OSCAR PRAIRIE is 5 and from a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 288 similar races for horses doing that
* When coming from 2m 6f or shorter they were 0-22
* No 5yo like OSCAR PRAIRIE won any of these races
* Not coming from a Novice Hurdle short of 3 miles
* KRISTOFFERSEN doesnt make much appeal
* He is an exposed 10 year old with no Graded Class
* Only 5 of the 288 winners could say that
* None were absent over a month like him (0-64)
* None had under 4 runs that season like him
* He has a weak profile and the ground looks wrong
* All his wins have come on better ground than this

SHORTLIST

WINTERWOOD  7/2
VERY COOL  8/1
QUELQU´UN COMME TOI  16/1

WINTERWOOD is hard to judge. Lightly raced horse.
Most runs in Ireland. I dont think he has an impressive
profile. I looked at all horses like him with 7-12 runs and
an absence of 7 weeks or more.  You only find a few of
them won and the vast majority had less weight than he
does. I have shortlisted him but I’m not sold on his chance.

* VERY COOL could also go well off topweight
* He only has a 0-120 class race to win
* He has placed 2nd in a 0-140 handicap before
* He isnt exposed which has to help
* If he recaptures his form after a break he could win
* He stays and acts on the ground
* Statistically he has work to do
* I would want more runs this year or a recent run

SELECTION

QUELQU´UN COMME TOI

This horse is a mystery. There is limited evidence to know
how good he is or what type of horse he is. I think he is a
horse that will either win or come nowhere. I love his profile though.
His jockey (Aidan Coleman) was intereviewed the other day about his
beat chance of a winner today. He said it was his outsider in the 3.55pm at 33/1 (Spit).
If he is being honest and knows a lot about both horses than we are in a bit of bother.
Then again he could have no knowledge that the horse is ok and it doesnt pay to listen to them anyway.

* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI has the following profile
* Horses with 5-6 career runs
* Horses aged 6
* Handicap Hurdle last time out
* No form in Graded races
* Horses with that profile were 10-40
* Those running in Febuary had a 6-9 record
* Those like him beaten 16 + lengths last time were 4-9
* Those like him beaten 32 + lengths were 2-3
* Would have been happier if he had won a race before
* That said he has an interesting profile
* QUELQU´UN COMME TOI could well be a Player

14/1 at BoyleSports betfred Tote

Posted under horse racing tips