SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The victor chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

N e w b u r y  3.10

PLANET OF SOUND 12/1

Each Way

Hennessy Gold Cup  N e w b u r y  3.10

A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.

5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.

* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too riSky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope

S h o r t l i s t

* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?

* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE  fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable

* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile

S e l e c t i o n

* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet

12 /1 at bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – sjames – Ladbrokes – VC

latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/

NB betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a bet365 4/1 + offer race  ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Last day of the flat season today but we are seeking a profit in one of the National Hunt races at Sandown.

 

S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 Ladbrokes -  Tote

Hold On Julio VC – Tote – betfred

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

M e s s a g e   T h o u g h t s

Mainly a Newmarket and York based message for full members today. Done lots of races at each track. I have probably gone a few places
I shouldn’t have done but I had a fair crack at both cards.

We will have some serious business at Chepstow again in
the next few months. One of my favourite tracks and no
doubt some fascinating battles to come. Today though is
probably a day to leave it alone here. Both Chepstow and
Hexham are pretty average cards. I have done a few little
National Hunt lines at both meetings. That opens up the
analysis but I have to say nothing excited me. It seems a
very bland piece of work and Knowing what both tracks
can and will offer in the future I am not interested today.

F r i d a y ‘s   S u m m a r y

Over the months and years I’m sure York has beaten me
more than not and I still rate it my worst track. Despite
that yesterday we finished a long way ahead and picked
it apart seemingly very easily and that contributed to a
very smart message. I thought I more than held my own
with the National Hunt business. I concentrated mainly
at York. Some very smart staking in the first two races
left us level when we could have gone behind. Shortlisted
the 3.05 winner but My choice was only 4th. There was
another setback in the Maiden. Late winners El Lail and
Trip The Light in a split stake bet made sure we had the
best of it at York. The main bet though was MUSNAD
each way at 8/1. He finished 2nd so a small profit on a
reasonably good bet. Before the race MUSNAD drifted
badly out to 16/1 and I was very concerned that he was
one of those bets that mysteriously sink without trace
and that fear increased when he came out in last place
at the start. Then to my surprise he ran his race and it
looked like he had won the race storming clear and he
went to as low as 1.06 in running. Sadly though he was
caught very late by another I shortlisted and we ended
up with only the place and a small profit. Overall that
was enough to contribute to a very decent message.

For Full Members my strongest bet today runs in the 4.40
at York.

You get immediate access to the full member area on joining
so if you were to join before 4.40 you can pick that up inside.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

Todays Free Saturday Tip

We are on a roll here on the free blog with winners at 18/1 and 6/1
over the past two weekends.

Winning runs mean little really however.
More important is that over a year profits add up to more than expendature.
Rather than post up a shortie here today to try and manipulate a three in a row sequence we are going for a highly speculative long odds selection on long term value principles.

N e w m a r k e t  2.05

5/4 Strong Suit, 9/4 Chachamaidee, 6/1 Maqaasid
12/1 Rimth, 20/1 Across The Rhine, 20/1 Giant Sandman
25/1 Elshabakiya, 25/1 Lechevalier Choisi.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 21 renewals since 1990
* This is always an interesting Group race
* You want a horse with 5 and 14 career starts
* 19 of the last 21 winners had between 5 and 14
* Horses with 13 or more runs have struggled here
* ACROSS THE RHINE fails that and looks exposed
* GIANT SANDMAN is also too exposed from a 6f race
* CHACHAMAIDEE is on the borderline with 14 runs
* There are some factors about her I dislike
* CHACHAMAIDEE is a Filly
* No Fillies aged 4 or 5 have won this race and she is 4
* No fillies won with 13 or more runs
* No fillies won dropping from a  Mile like her
* CHACHAMAIDEE is not like any female winners
* There are just 3 winners that had 13 or more runs
* None of these dropped from a Mile
* CHACHAMAIDEE  doesnt seem safe
* MAQAASID is a 3yo filly as were 4 winners
* None however were absent more than 7 weeks
* MAQAASID has been absent over 10 weeks
* All fillies aged 3 had at least 6 runs that season
* MAQAASID only has 5 runs this year
* MAQAASID just falls short because of these issues
* LECHEVALIER CHOISI has a shaky profile
* He is 3 and has an absence
* No 3 year old with 9 + runs won with his absence
* He is also short on backclass as well
* RIMTH just falls short as a 3yo filly
* She has a lot of positives but two negatives
* All 3yo fillies had more runs that season than her
* They all achieved more than she did last time out

S h o r t l i s t

* STRONG SUIT is the highest rated horse here
* He is 3 and has a 74 days absence
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None of these were absent 7 or more weeks
* That raises a doubt about STRONG SUIT
* STRONG SUIT has raced just 4 times this year
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3-4 runs this year are 1-39
* That was Kahal back in 1997
* He was lighter raced and had a recent race
* There is an argument against STRONG SUIT
* His absence and runs this year may leave him short
* His Class and rating demands he gets full respect

* ELSHABAKIYA was my 16/1 each way bet last Saturday
* She finished fast and came second at Ascot
* Fillies aged 3 have won 4 renewals of this race
* They all had 7-12 runs like her
* They all finished 1-2-3-4 last time out
* They all had 6-7-8 runs that season like her
* Similar horses had a 4-7 record in this race
* ELSHABAKIYA comes out very well
* She is similar to 2007 winner Miss Lucifer
* She came from the October Stakes just as she does
* Dont worry about the price
* This is a race that has seen several big shocks

Selection – ELSHABAKIYA 33/1 Each Way
Go with bet365 Ladbrokes or s james who pay 1/4 odds
33/1 also available at PaddyPower but they only pay out 1/5 odds

Best wishes
Guy

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

For your info yesterday we advised a Full Bet to Members
to back EXMOOR RANGER & THE RAINBOW HUNTER
both each way at circa 25/1.

So first Full bet this week Lost. I suppose at the 25/1 prices
it couldn’t have been unexpected. I have never been one to
focus on short priced winners. At the end of a season you
don’t count winners you count profits. Planning to play in
a few Handicap Chases this week but yesterdays race
got the better of me and we ended up 1-0 down. Not
the result I expected. THE RAINBOW HUNTER did
not run badly for a while but didnt jump well enough
to keep in touch with them when they quickened and
faded. EXMOOR RANGER finished 6th with most bookies going 5 places
and it is hard to know if a slow start when detached and left behind
the field made any difference. Looked as if he may get
placed at one stage but neither ran well enough and we
got nothing back.

The full member message held its own for most
of the other races.
SPIRIT SON – REALT DUBH – SPARKY MAY and
GARDE CHAMPETRE all suggested each way
placed comfortably enough.

Onto Today

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

140th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders? Novices? Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

Forecast Odds

7/2 Alfa Beat, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Beshabar, 7/1 Some Target
12/1 Aberdale, 12/1 Sona Sasta, 14/1 Arabella Boy, 14/1 Chamirey
20/1 Be There In Five, 20/1 Glenwood Knight, 20/1 Pearlysteps
25/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 On His Own
40/1 Regal Approach, 50/1 Double Pride, 100/1 Carlas Dream.

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* I would want at least 4 runs that season
* Only 1 of the last 17 winners had under 4 runs that year
* That was the 1998 winner who was different class
* The last 18 winners had the following races that year
* 4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4

* BESHABAR only has 2 runs this season
* That worries me especially as he is older than ideal
* His 3 Chase runs have hardly set pulses racing yet
* SONA SASTA also has just 2 runs this season
* Thats not enough for me as he’s just 2 Chase starts
* You really want at least 1 more chase runs
* I think that will catch him out
* Especially as most past winners had more backclass
* Most also had a more recent run
* SONA SASTA is rejected
* CARLAS DREAM looks outclassed
* DOUBLE PRIDE has a poor preparation
* PEARLYSTEPS is statistically not quite right
* I dont like horses aged 8 or more from 2m 6f or less
* They have a 1-31 record in this race
* That winner had 6 runs that season not 4 like him
* That winner won last time and had a recent race
* PEARLYSTEPS doesnt offer me enough
* I also feel here is a stamina doubt there
* His sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* REGAL APPROACH is 8 and comes from 2m 4f
* No winner had a similar profile and I dont like him
* ABERDALE is owned by Trevor Hemmings
* Both the owner and the sire have won this race before
* I thought he had only one problem a 112 day break
* He was due to run a few weeks ago but had a setback
* That could leave him short for this race
* 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* He is not for me with a long absence
* CAPTAIN AMERICO is a 9yo with 13 + runs
* Not the best age but older horses can and do win
* What troubles me is they all had 9 + runs this year
* Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won
* They had 9 and 10 races that season
* CAPTAIN AMERICO has only had 4 runs
* Not enough for a 9 year old with 13 + runs
* Horses aged 6 have a weak record in this race
* I would be very dubious about these horses
* MAJOR MALARKEY pulled up at Haydock last time
* I looked at horses from handicaps with 9 or more runs
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-25
* Those that ran within a Month like him were 0-44
* None Pulled up of fell last time and none came from 27f +
* MAJOR MALARKEY doesnt have a great preparation
* ON HIS OWN looks too inexperienced with 2 runs
* Short of runs this year I’d ignore him
* BE THERE IN FIVE won 11 days ago
* Horses with recent runs have struggled in this race
* I’d have prefered at least 1 more run this season
* I also feel there is a genuine stamina doubt

SHORTLIST

* ALFA BEAT was a big gamble last week
* His problem is he has not ran in 182 days
* We know 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* Neither of the ones that didnt were as exposed as him
* With 11 Chase starts he has had more than ideal
* He doesnt leap off the page to me with that absence
* He comes here  with a W W W W W record
* Soemone clearly thinks he has improved again
* Surely 9/2 is short enough anyway with his absence

* CHICAGO GREY is having his 10th Chase start
* Happy with his general exposure
* It worries me he has had 9 runs since last July
* Thats a long time on the go for a race like this
* The winner in 1993 had 10 runs that season
* There are a few little niggles I have with him
* No past winners came from a Grade 1 race like him
* His Sire hasn’t had a 4m winner yet
* May mean nothing but you do need a stayer here
* He had the speed to win a 2m race over hurdles last year.
* I see his absence of 78 days one of his big problems.
* Only 2 of the last 16 winners were absent 7 + weeks
* Both were lighter raced than he is
*  I see him more as Neutral than negative

* CHAMIREY has quite a good profile
* I would have to make him a positive
* I do have some reservations with him
* I can’t match him as closely as I’d like
* He has made mistakes in all 4 of his Chases
* He wont get away with that here
* I also wonder if he will stay 4 Miles here
* His sire’s had a 3m 7f winner (Laddoudal)
* None have won at 4 miles yet

FAVOURED SELECTIONS

* ARABELLA BOY is a 6 year old
* I wonder if he will stay 4 Miles
* His Sire has a 1-48 record with runners at 3m 3f +
* He has sired a Midland Grand National winner (4m1f)
* Thats takes a lot of the doubt away
* Only 1 from 48 over 3m 3f isnt impressive though
* I dont mind the 6yo statistic too much
* Only 1 have won but that doesnt tell the true story
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* He has a recent run and is one of the fittest horses
* ARABELLA BOY has experience on his side

* SOME TARGET has just won at 3m 4f on soft ground
* He is the right age and has the right exposure
* He also has a more recent run than several here
* His right handed track form doesnt worry me
* Plenty of handicappers have won this race
* He does look a solid option to me

I’d Suggest a Split Stake Bet

SOME TARGET 7/1 – Half your stake to win
7/1 At Several spots inc Tote Paddy Power Ladbrokes

ARABELLA BOY  – Half your stake each way
You can get 11/1 Sporting Bet paying 4 places

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races