Saturday After Cheltenham

No free tip message today. I only put a
few hours in to the Saturday meeting after Cheltenham
as the festival work is so demanding and I find it impossible
to raise my game today.
We made some serious profit at Cheltenham.
That’s over now and we have targets ahead.

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Chepstow

A good effort  last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from betfred as

#1 – Their best odds guarantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 – The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second so you would have been left with just a winning place bet.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and something for Chepstow.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

You need to think long term over many bets not just “on the day” however.

More detail on that thinking at a future point perhaps.

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C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

Nb Want to play it differently yourself the above is a potential leg of an each way double. Full members have been advised of a suitable second horse for that. As ever we are hampered with not wanting to annoy full members by puting too much up here on the free blog.

For more info on the full service click here Betting Advice

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Racing Message

This free blog poses a few conundrums for us.

If you recall back in August we mentioned a change from our old style very select Account Bets to a more frequent style of bet we call the Daily Recommendation.

These have been doing very well for full members of mathematician betting.

Return on investment to date is about 140%

ie for every £1000 staked you would have gotten £1400 back for a net profit of £400

See old sample at http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/horse-betting-message-for-saturday/

With paying clients to consider and respect however we can not put these up here for free  every weekend.

What we post here is often the second class stuff from deeper in the message.

With several double digit winners here however it is second class for us but still worth you noting.

It does leave us with the conundrum however of we want to impress you so you will join but at the same time you are not seeing the best as we have to respect our normal clients.

Not quite sure what the best solution is but for now all I can do is suggest you join up as a full member.

You can always call on the refund guarantee if you change your mind.

Hopefully you will stay long term however when you realise you have found a good thing.

This week my chores involved asking two members who joined for a year about a year ago to renew. Both were very keen to do so and joined up for another year. Its a hard thing to measure a service on but if there were some official means to measure a service on how happy clients were to renew long term subscriptions.. Mathematician Betting would score very highly indeed.

We still have clients who joined us first over five years ago !

We do have right now in the full member area a proper Daily Recommendation for today .

On to todays free blog race however.

Its an interesting choice with a  bit of market support for it since given out to full members earlier this morning.

CHEPSTOW 4.10

Totesport 0800 221 221 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)  2m4f

4/1 Duke Of Lucca, 4/1 Pistolet Noir, 6/1 Working Title
7/1 Restless Harry, 8/1 Sir Harry Ormesher, 10/1 Tullamore Dew 12/1 Any Given Day, 12/1 Pickamus, 14/1 Benbane Head
16/1 Mohanad, 20/1 Dantari, 20/1 Mad Moose
25/1 Chief Yeoman, 33/1 Hills Of Aran.

* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle in Listed Class
* There has been 18 renewals of this race

This race has been dominated by seasonal debutants. Only 3
of the 18 winners had run this season. Horses that had done
that but who failed to win this year were 0-43 so DANTARI
ANY GIVEN DAY -MAD MOOSE and Hills OF ARAN do
not appeal. WORKING TITLE has won this season. Horses
doing that coming from 2m 4f or further have a weak 0-35
record. Horses it aged 6 or more were just 1-38 and the sole winner had a loss less weight and I see WORKING TITLE as unsafe. Exposed horses like CHIEF YEOMAN are opposable.
No horse won first time out from a handicap chase which is
a problem for PICKAMUS and Henry Daly doesnt look like
a trainer to trust with debutants and he might need this race. There were 2 winners aged 4 but both were lightly raced and I did not think MOHANAD was the right type or 4 year old. TULLAMORE DEW is a little bit exposed for a debutant and  may just have a bit too much weight for his age.

* PISTOLET NOIR – 1 similar winner but unsafe
* DUKE OF LUCCA – Good profile aside from his weight
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more are 1-44 in this race
* Thats a big worry for DUKE OF LUCCA
* SIR HARRY ORMESHER – His age and weight are problems
* RESTLESS HARRY – shortlistable but a nasty weight

SELECTION

BENBANE HEAD has a good a profile as any and looks
a bit of value. There were many Novice Hurdle Seasonal
debutants like him with Grade 1 form and a light weight
and many of the better profiles in the race have weights
that are hard to carry in this race so he does appeal as a
decent price in an open race.

Was about 8/1 earlier when given to full members

Now 13/2 at Tote

Posted under horse racing tips