ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED - MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power bet365 VC * more

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 3.25

SPORTINGBET.COM E B F FILLIES´ STAKES
(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+ 0-100) 7f

100/30 Pyrrha, 7/2 Lassarina, 9/2 Adoring, 5/1 Victoria Sponge, 8/1 Volochkova, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Carcinetto, 16/1 Shaws Diamond, 25/1 Vitoria.

There has not been many Fillies handicaps at this time of
year in this sort of grade so statistically we dont have great angles.
What few there have been all went to unexposed horses.
I see OCEANA BLUE and CARCINETTO as far
too exposed and vulnerable. I dont see VITORIA defying
a nasty absence either. ADORING has had just one career
run. She also has a 62 day absence and races on soft ground.
Having one run looks something to be worried about.
I’ve looked at every fillies handicap that has ever been run at
any distance in Class 3 and better.
Only one horse has won one of these races and that horse (Tartouche)
did it at a different trip and won a muddling false pace race before
going on to win Group races. ADORING is trying to do something no
other horse has done. Given that she also has an absence and hasnt
been on the ground before I’d want to oppose her second time out in
a 0-97 handicap. I didnt think VOLOCHKOVA would have the class.
She scraped home in a triple photo on a Class 5 race on the sand
that was only a 0-75 class race and she now takes a 3 grade rise
into a Class 2 contest and I suspect that will find her out.
LASSARINA has just one run this season and all similar races show
you are much better off with at least 3 runs that season.
She could well be underraced especially with a 98 day absence as well.
I respect the fact she drops from a Group race but shes inexperienced
and far from  certain to be fit. She has a large weight for a 3 year old.
The fact she won a Conditions race on her debut and then ran in two Group
Races shows she has class but its done nothing for her handicap mark
and a mark of 97 wont be easy to overcome with all her other issues like
her absence and inexperience and just the one run this year. She may
win but she isnt for me. SHAWS DIAMOND may find this
a bit too warm. PYRRHA is lightly raced and open to some
improvement. She had a legitimate excuse last time out at
Newmarket when badly drawn. She is tempting each way
around 4/1 but I have a couple of reservations. She has no
form on ground softer than good and isnt sure to want the
soft ground. I also worry she has just two runs this year
and could be at a fitness disadvantage. VICTORIA SPONGE
looks interesting. She looked progressive recently as she
easily won two handicaps but came unstuck last time. It
was no surprise as she was a 3 year old giving weight and
a penalty to older horses when having to drop in distance
which didnt suit her. VICTORIA SPONGE will appreciate
this return to 7f today. I would rather she came from a 7f
race but that doesnt worry me as others have far more to
worry about in terms of fitness and experience and ground.
I think VICTORIA SPONGE is a decent each way bet.

SELECTION - VICTORIA SPONGE Each Way 6/1 at bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

We have a reasonably busy Saturday on the full service with three different bets advised.
Here on the free horse betting blog we will look at just one of them.

Newmarket 5.05

COMPTON’S ELEVEN 6/1 Win Bet
VIOLENT VELOCITY 4/1 Saver

I thought hard about making COMPTONS ELEVEN an account bet with VIOLENT VELOCITY as a saver.
He’s such a typical account bet for me down in class and also conceeding weight to inferior horses.
On Paper he smells like a great bet but the danger is he could now be a sour 8 year old grey mule that has forgotten how to win.
There are other well treated runners as well and I just feel he is a
little short of a full bet especially with the rain about.
In terns of strength he is a very strong selection as I’m also saving on the second best handicapped horse in the race.
Both these horses are so well treated I will be shocked if one doesnt win.
They are both worth a decent bet but just fall short of a maximum.

COMPTONS ELEVEN 7/1 Ladbrokes - Hills - s james -Skybet - Paddy Power

VIOLENT VELOCITY 11/2 bet365
VIOLENT VELOCITY 5/1 Ladbrokes - Hills

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NEWMARKET 5.05

AGORA APPRENTICE HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 7f

4/1 Another Try, 5/1 King’s Icon, 13/2 Convince, 13/2 Pretty Officer, 8/1 Tri Chara, 10/1 Bigfanofthat, 10/1 Cavalry Guard, 10/1 Violent Velocity, 12/1 Compton’s Eleven, 14/1 King Of The Moors, 16/1 Rough Rock, 25/1 Majestic Cheer, 33/1 Ramblin Bob.

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER - VIOLENT VELOCITY

This is a 7f Handicap For Apprentice riders. June and July have seen 64 handicaps like this.
There has been 578 similar races for all types of jockeys and not just Apprentices. I used both trends.

* KINGS ICON has 1 run this year
* In 64 Apprentice races horses doing that were 0-42
* He also has a 65 day absence
* He looks potentially unfit for a semi exposed horse
* I looked at 578 similar 7f handicaps
* No horse as exposed as him won with 1 run and a break
* He is well handicapped and from a shrewd stable
* I would question his fitness though and he isnt for me
* RAMBLIN BOB lost by too far just 3 days ago
* TRI CHARA is hard to fancy
* He is exposed and comes from a 6f race
* No winners did that without a recent run and he’s been off 92 days
* He is also USA Bred and has all his best form on sand
* He may also struggle on the ground
* ROUGH ROCK will struggle to get home on the ground
* He also has the worst draw for me
* PRETTY OFFICER has spent her last races at 10f or more
* Its asking her a lot to drop from 10f to 7f
* No Filly did that in any of the 64 Apprentice races
* They scored very poorly in 578 other races
* There is far too much risk in her as a Filly not won before
* The ground could also hurt to PRETTY OFFICER is out
* MAJESTIC CHEER has to go from a 6f Seller
* CAVALRY GUARD was beaten too far in a 0-55 last time
* I dont see him as good enough
* Not without any form on the ground and winless on grass

POSSIBLES

* KING OF THE MOOR has reasonable claims
* He has a 39 day absence though
* Thats not easy for an exposed 6 year old
* He also has no recent form at 7f in years
* All his runs in the last two years were at 8f or more
* All his wins in the last two years were at 8f and more
* KING OF THE MOOR does have questions to answer
* ANOTHER TRY is inexperienced with 7 runs
* In 64 Apprentice Handicaps only 2 winners had under 9 runs
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* Statistically I dont have a problem but there are issues
* His last win was when given a gift of a Draw
* I dont see his draw today as favourable at all
* He has to come from 6f to 7f and thats not straight forward
* He may also find the ground more testing than he faced before
* I respect him but he isnt for me
* BIGFANOFTHAT has a chance
* He still has to come up from 6f with just 1 run since April
* He certainly has a chance in this race
* CONVINCE is entitled to run well
* I dont have a major problem with him
* VIOLENT VELOCITY has a serious chance
* He is thrown in off his current mark
* The Absence doesnt worry me
* I have found several winners like him
* I rate him a good saver

COMPTON´S ELEVEN is very interesting. I remember making
him an account bet when he won the Grey Horse Handicap her
in 2007. Statistically he is fine. I think I have made a reasonable case against a lot of his rivals.
What interests me though is that he could have a Class advantage.
COMPTON´S ELEVEN is rated 69 and he has to win what is only a 0-64 handicap.
He has come down about 14lbs in the weights within the last year.
He has been running himself fitter and fitter all year as he comes down the
handicap and today is a Career low mark.

* His last run was 6th at Warwick beaten 7 lengths
* That was in a 0-83 Handicap much better than this race
* The Lowest rated horse he faced that day was 70
* The Highest rated horse he faces today is 64
* He was also badly drawn at Warwick in stall 11
* He was last into the turn and finished away from the track bias
* 6th place wasnt bad and the 4th and 5th came out and won since
* His previous race at Folkestone was in a better class 0-78 handicap
* His 4th that day doesnt suggest he couldnt win this 0-64
* He stays - He has won with ground on the soft side
* Most of his wins come on a straight track as well

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER - VIOLENT VELOCITY

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Posted under horse racing tips