THIRSK 5.20

ToteSPORTBINGO.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby,
6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond,
10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* April and May have seen 138 similar races
* I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY
* She is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197
* Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record
* Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42
* Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84
* Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128
* Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58
* Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152
* HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed
* LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights
* Felt he had an unimpressive profile
* LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* The odd one won but they scored badly
* Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race
* 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries
* None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20)
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list
* I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE
* He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs
* He is also on a career high mark
* All his wins have come on the All Weather as well
* I would worry about fast ground for him as well
* RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me
* BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that
* The record was 9-167
* However none came from a Class 6 handicap
* Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66
* Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91
* That suggets thye following
* Better to be beaten far in a classier race
* Than to run well in a cheap race
* BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist

STRONG PROFILES

* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile
* I dont see anything really wrong with him
* CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile
* Placing 3rd in a much better race last time
* PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden
* The runner up has come out and won as well
* I liked his profile and he looks a big runner
* He quickened well last time out
* Last years winner came from the same maiden
* Well drawn he looks good enough to win this

SELECTION - PADDY BEAR Each Way at 100/30 betfred - s james - Tote - VC

Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

1 Account Bet

Kempton 7.50

HIGHLAND RIVER 3/1

£100 Win

3/1 Ladbrokes - Boyles -betfred-BlueSq- Paddy P
3/1 Skybet -s james - 888sport- betdirect

CELTIC CONTRACTORS NURSERY (DIV II) (CLASS 6) (2yo,0-65) 1m

5/1 Highland River, 11/2 Artesium, Hawkspring, 7/1 Swiss Art, 8/1 Lujeanie, 9/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Impressionist Art, 16/1 Imperial Skylight, 20/1 Daily Planet, Merry May, Transfered.

* This is a Nursery race over a Mile
* There has been 55 of these races in November and December
* I want to oppose horses that come from 6f races
* In 55 races these horses have a 1-101 record
* At anytime of year there has been 143 nurseries at 8f
* Thats 143 races any time of year in class 6 and class 5
* Horses that came from 6f Nurseries were just 1-121
* That sole winner was Arcalis in 2002 at Pontefract
* He later won from a 30lbs higher mark and won a Grade 1 hurdle
* ARTESIUM is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* LUJEANIE is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* IMPERIAL SkyLIGHT is rejected coming from a 6f race
* He comes from a 6f claimer and no horse did that and won an 8f nursery
* MERRY MAY is rejected as a filly from a 6f race
* In 143 races at all times of year fillies doing this were 1-119
* HAWKSPRING comes from a 2yo selling race
* In 143 races only 6 horses came from sellers to win
* Horses that won a seller were 0-45 when running in these races
* With under 4 career starts these horses were 0-34
* HAWKSPRING has only had 2 career starts
* He will appeal to many and is well entered up this week
* I feel HAWKSPRING has a poor profile
* In the 55 races horses from 8f with under 4 runs were 1-57
* TRANSFERRED doesnt have a great profile either
* She is a filly absent 80 days
* She is also a filly that comes from a seller with 3 runs
* DAILY PLANET has just lost by 10.5 lengths over 7f
* In 143 races all year round I looked for similar types
* Horses that lost by Only 6 + lengths over 7f or shorter
* These horses were 1-113 when having 7 or more runs
* In 55 similar nurseries at this time of year
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths in Nurseries over 7f or shorter were 1-94
* DAILY PLANET fails that and looks outclassed
* IMPRESSIONIST ART is a filly with 3 runs and 80 days off
* Fillies absent 7 weeks or more won just 2 of the 143 races
* None had her weight or came from conditions races
* Fillies with under 4 runs struggled in 143 races all year round
* Only 1 managed to win with 9st 3lbs or more
* She was well beaten last time and has a poor profile
* AMAZING BLUE Sky comes from a 7f maiden after 3 runs
* He also has an unpleasant 59 day absence to overcome
* I have found 1 winner with a similar profile to him
* Overall he looks to hold no more than a small chance
* SWISS ART has a reasonable profile if he stays
* I dont have a problem with him
* HIGHLAND RIVER has a superb profile
* Horses that were 2nd in recent 8f nurseries were strong
* With 5 runs as he has they had a 2-4 record
* HIGHLAND RIVER was handicapped after 3 “quiet runs”
* His 4th start was a pretty hard task
* He was dropped from an 8f maiden to a 6f Nursery
* He ran a very creditable 2nd in a 0-60 nursery that day
* Last time out he ran in an 8f Nursery
* He had a horrible profile that day as he came from a 6f race
* All the problems with 6f runners are described above
* HIGHLAND RIVER still managed an excellent 2nd that day
* That was a competetive 14 runner race betting 9/2 the field
* I think he is light years ahead of these on his profile
* HIGHLAND RIVER is a Confident Bet

Posted under horse racing tips