The Derby 2013

The Derby     Epsom  4.00

I am posting up my thoughts on the Derby today
more so out of public demand than because it
is my favoured betting option today.

Full members I have actually pointed to an 8/1
shot riding at Newcastle this evening planning  to follow
on from yesterday’s NEEDY MCCREDIE 9/1 advised winner.

Returning to this afternoon however all eyes will be on The Derby

The Derby this year is about whether the best horse in
the race DAWN APPROACH stays 12f. Far too much has
been written already about this and nobody will know
until after the race. My pennys worth doesnt matter but
I do have my doubts about him staying and have been
persuaded by the arguments against him and given he
is a very short price I’d rather take something each way
against him. You can be wrong about the stamina issue
yet still come out ahead. I wasnt keen on MARS having
just one run this year in the Guineas. FESTIVE CHEER’s
the Aidan O’Brien 3rd string so not for me. CHOPIN has
not got enough positive points much as he isn’t easy to
read. LIBERTARIAN wouldn’t be first choice but that’s a
bit down to Racing snobbery. OCOVANGO needs to be
respected but he is drawn one and it will be difficult to
win from that draw. I respect RULER OF THE WORLD a
lot but I prefer his stablemate BATTLE OF MARENGO a
horse that would be Top rated were it not for the short
priced favourite. He looks the natural each way bet.

I have had to come to terms with advising a bet in
the Derby with Cheekpieces but Joseph O’Brien is
riding and has rejected the other Coolmore horses
and times and training patterns change and I can
live with it. The favourite may win but I am more
persuaded by the argument against him staying
than those that say he will. I dont think he is one
of those bet to nothings each way but BATTLE
OF MARENGO looks to me like the second best
horse and a bet each way.

Selection

BATTLE OF MARENGO

Each Way

Top bookmaker price is 7/1 bet365William Hillstan james

But consider stongly as well the Derby special offers from
victor chandler and Ladbrokes who will return as free bet cash
up to £50 and £25 respectively if Dawn Approach wins.
That is quite attractive extra insurance.

These are offers open to all customers not just new ones.
See their sites for full terms.

Current Prices
victor chandler  13/2
Ladbrokes 6/1

Best Wishes
Guy

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Derby Betting Tip

The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes blue square bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

NB betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Day 4 Stats

For those of you who prefer to do your own thing selection wise

here are some researched stats for Cheltenham Day 4 races.

 

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* English Horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I would avoid horses with 1 career start
* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-31 record.
* 2 of the last winners had just 2 previous races
* Thats a change as 17 of the previous 18 had more
* Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage.
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Flat Bred
* Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat
* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49
* The last 19 winners all ran after January 17th that year
* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 5 times
* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000
* All 3 won last time within the past month
* Horses that won their last race won 12 of the last 13
* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time
* Those that were not had a 0-158 record
* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85
* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle
* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled
* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-49
* All 36 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost
* All 85 maidens lost
* 14 of the last 16 winners had won twice that season
* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings
* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-133

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent O?Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Seasonal debutants have not won this race
* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-43
* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season
* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and none won
* All 16 winners had at least that and most had 4 +
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3-4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season
* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs
* 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* The last 17 winners were absence this many days
* 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much
* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record
* 5 and 6 year olds won 39 of the last 49 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have won 4 of the last 6 renewals
* No horse aged 10 or older have won
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs
* 16 of the last 18 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before
* Both high and low weighted winners have won
* I’d oppose the very high weighted horses
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18

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CHELTENHAM 2.40

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are just 6 renewals of this race
* The 5 winners were aged 7-6-7-6-7-5
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-13
* The 6 winners were 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts
* The 6 winners had 15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs
* They had the following number of hurdle starts
* 13 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 4
* I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3
* Dont be put off from horses with absences
* The 6 winners had been absent this many days
* 33 47 61 48 97 27
* All 6 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time
* 2 of the 6 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the distance before
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the track before
* The 6 winners had 9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* 14 of the last 15 winners had 6-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 14 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-82 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 17 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-85 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 34 that ran in the last 17 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 11 of the last 13 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Allmost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Christies Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
(CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-2 since 1992
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-130 both winners a shock
* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses.
* You can’t rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004
* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days
* Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.
* Anything that wins very recently is significant
* Seasonal debutants won several renewals
* I would either want a long absence or very short one
* Horses with Headgear won 1 race but score badly
* We haven’t yet had a female winner of this race (0-14)
* The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions
* W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W
* The majority have won their latest starts
* Or they would have probably won when falling
* 19 of the last 23 winners won on their previous start
* Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37
* 19 of the last 21 were brought up via Hunters or Points
* All 23 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost
* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.
* None of the 38 won this race
* No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

* No strong Statistics with just 2 past renewals
* Both winners were 6 year olds
* Both had 11st 2lbs and more
* Both last ran in Febuary
* Both had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences
* Both had ran over fences at least once before
* Both had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before
* Neither winner came up in distance
* Both had placed at Cheltenham before
* Both winners had 4 runs that season
* Neither had 3 or more career wins before

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CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase runs
* 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Recent winners had the follwing Hurdle runs
* 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs
* 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40
* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997
* The last 11 winners had these Handicap Chase runs
* 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5
* 5 of the last 11 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase
* Another one had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase.
* The last 11 winners had these Novice Chase runs
* 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs
* The last 12 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998
* Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-55
* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races
* The last 12 winners were aged 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991
* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)
* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)
* They all had form in Graded races
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had just 1 run that season
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* Last years winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual
* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-64
* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks
* All 35 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost
* 16 of the last 17 winners had ran in Graded Class before
* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France
* Predictably all 37 apprentice riders lost in this race
* Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-56 record
* Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out
* 35 of the last 40 winners placed in their previous chase
* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps
* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase
* 5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2

Posted under Major Horse Races

Epsom Derby

EPSOM 5.45

INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (3yo) 1m4f10y

11/4 Sea The Stars, 7/2 Fame And Glory, 4/1 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Gan Amhras, 8/1 Black Bear Island, 14/1 Masterofthehorse, 20/1 Age Of Aquarius, 20/1 Crowded House, 25/1 Kite Wood, 33/1 Golden Sword, 50/1 Montaff, 66/1 Debussy.

The Epsom Derby comes too soon in the year and doesnt
really offer great trends. Normally I would be against all
the horses from the 2000 Guineas but it is not a year to
do that with confidence as they are mob handed in today’s
race. I dont have a strong opinion. I have just listened to a lot of different opinions and read a lot about the race.When you have 6 Aidan O’Brien runners and the decision
by Johnny Murtagh a surprise to many you realise that
you cant know enough about the Irish horses to form a
confident view. Jamie Spencer was talking recently about
why he feels SEA THE STARS wont stay and why he sees
him as having too much speed and I consider that very
plausable and he isnt for me. FAME AND GLORY isnt
for me as he has been rejected leading to suspicions that
a horse that won over 10f as a juvenile may be too slow
to win the race. CROWDED HOUSE and KITE WOOD dont appeal well beaten in the Dante. There are too many doubts for me about RIP VAN WINKLE. The track may hurt him. He isnt sure to stay. I like GAN AMHRAS and BLACK BEAR ISLAND or at least feel they offer quite a good return for the risk. I think the best risk here is to try some forecasts. It will be pot luck. I am taking the view that SEA THE STARS will lose for a lack of stamina but will still go very close. I think he could easily finish second. I intend to have some Novely forecasts in this race all built around the prediction SEA THE STARS is going to go very close but lose out to stamina.

Two Suggested Forecasts

* Gan Amhras to beat Sea The Stars

* Black Bear Island to beat Sea The Stars

Posted under Major Horse Races