Grand National Tip

It’s that time of year again folks.

Grand National Day tomorrow.

It’s a race I live in fear of each year sweating over the possibility of her indoors picking the winner on the grounds that the jockey was wearing a pretty blouse. If so I won’t hear the end of it for a long time.

I have put a bit more effort into my own research than that. Remember however that hard work and research is a thing that tends to pay off in the long run but not every day nor in every race.

Below you can read my personal thoughts on the race.

Good luck to you no matter who you decide to back in the end.

 

 

John Smith’s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) (7yo+) 4m3f110y

See live odds from multiple bookmakers

This year The Grand National has been shortened to 4m3f110y

One area that interests me is the number of runs this year horses have had.
So I will start there

Number of Races This Season

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year
* The following horses fail this and are rejected
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is 12 with 1 run this season
* That’s not an acceptable profile with Topweight
* WHAT A FRIEND is exposed with 1 run this season
* QUEL ESPRIT is out with 2 runs this season
* His sire’s never had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* Stamina Weight and lack of runs should beat him
* ALWAYS WAINING 12 and has just 2 runs this season
* He is Flat Bred and doesn’t look likely to stay
* TREACLE will stay but he is also underraced
* He’s exposed aged 12 with just two runs this season

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* SUNNYHILLBOY only has two runs this season
* He was 2nd in last years race
* I don’t see him repeating that this year
* He had 4 prepatory races last year and just 2 this year
* He had 30 days absence last year but now has 84 days
* He had 10st 5lbs last year and now 11st 4lbs
* That’s three big problems from an exposed horse
* He is hardly big in stature anyway
* He withdrew from the Gold Cup on the day
* That lack of prep run must count against him
* seabass has raced just twice this season
* He was 3rd in last years race when favourite
* Last year he had 8lbs less weight
* He also had 4 runs that season
* Now with more weight and only 2 runs I oppose him
* ON HIS OWN has raced just once this year
* He has a very worrying profile in other areas
* The least experienced winner had 9 Chase runs
* He has just 7 Chase runs and only 1 run this year
* He is a serious talent and has ability
* He may be a new breed of horses about to win this
* None before were remotely like him though
* Until one wins we should oppose his type of horse
* BALTHAZAR KING has just two runs this season
* That’s a big worry for an exposed horse like him
* He won the 2012 Cross Country at Cheltenham
* That was 3m 7f but not a true stamina test
* He is the only horse by his sire to win beyond 3m 3f
* Horses by Kings Theatre are 1-32 racing at 3m 3f +
* His 141 day absence also badly damages his chance
* The past 21 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* CAPPA BLEU has only raced twice this season
* The last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases before
* CAPPA BLEU hasn’t done that yet
* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* With 9 Chase runs he’d be joint least experienced winner

A Recent Race

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* I’d not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25
* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23
* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 18 of the past 22 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is absent 70 days
* SUNNYHILLBOY has an absence of 84 days
* BALTHAZAR KING is absent 141 days
* The above 3 horses are already rejected
* MUMBLES HEAD and LOST GLORY fail it too

Age Of Winner

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven’t won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* SAINT ARE is rejected as a 7 year old
* Horses aged 8 need to actually be 8 year olds
* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds
* Horses aged 8 haven’t the best recent record
* If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
* Be aware some horses are younger than their age
* If Foaled after April 6th they are really under 8
* All 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere are the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early the year they were born
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* LOST GLORY is a only about 7.5 years old
* SOLL wont fully be an 8 year old form another 28 days
* HARRY THE VIKING isn’t 8 quite yet either

Back Class

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 11 of the last 12 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* 21 of the last 22 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses have no Graded form
* TARQUINIUS – LOST GLORY
* COLBERT STATION has no Listed or Graded form
* That’s a worry but I don’t want to be hasty with him
* He won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily
* Officially that Irish race was a Class 2 race
* I would view that as more like a Graded race
* COLBERT STATION gets a free pass on this statistic

* These Horses haven’t won a Listed/Graded race
* VIKING BLOND – SOLL – MAJOR MALARKEY
* ANY CURRENCY – HARRY THE VIKING – MUMBLES HEAD
* MR MOONSHINE – BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
* THE RAINBOW HUNTER – SWING BILL – TREACLE
* OSCAR TIME – JOIN TOGETHER
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE hasn’t won in this class either
* BALTHAZAR KING has also failed that
* CAPPA BLUE is yet to win in Listed/Graded class too
* TEAFORTHREE has plenty of Graded form
* He has never won beyond Class 2 before
* That is a definite negative about his profile

Chasing Experience

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* COLBERT STATION only has 5 Chase starts
* That is 4 less than the least experienced winner
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* Last years 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been maid easier this year
* COLBERT STATION fails this but I could forgive this
* He has a longer absence than the last 21 winners
* That’s only by 6 days though and I would ignore that
* COLBERT STATION – I would still keep him on side
* ON HIS OWN only has 7 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those in this race last year
* I rejected him earlier with 1 run this season
* JOIN TOGETHER has raced in only 8 Chases
* That’s a bit short of runs when he didn’t finish in three
* WIth two Pulled Ups and a Fall he hasn’t had many runs
* JOIN TOGETHER gets credit in many areas
* He will stay and he has backclass
* He also has a healthy of runs this season
* Against him is just 8 previous chase runs
* Especially when not finishing 3 of these
* It worries me he was a Novice just 12 months ago
* There is also the issue of field size
* His Trainer is on record saying he likes small fields
* All his wins come in fields of 10 or less
* In fields of 11 or more he is PU 7th Fell PU
* He’s been to 2 Cheltenham and 1 Aintree festival
* He has disappointed on all three occasions
* Profile isn’t quite right and has a few minor flaws
* CAPPA BLEU is short of Chase runs having only 9
* CAPPA BLEU is short of runs as well with just 2 this year
* That’s not many for a horse aged 11
* He was 4th in last years race
* He was younger then and had an extra run that season
* The last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases before
* CAPPA BLEU hasn’t done that yet
* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* With 9 Chase runs he’d be joint least experienced winner
* CAPPA BLUE is yet to win in Listed/Graded class too
* All in all I want more from a 12/1 chance

Weight

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

Past Chase Wins

* 18 of the last 19 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins
* CAPPA BLEU has only won twice over fences
* JOIN TOGETHER also fail this
* Both of these have already been rejected
* NINETIETH MINUTE has won just 1 Chase start
* I wouldn’t want to bet him
* COLBERT STATION also fails this stat with 2 Chase wins
* That’s understandable as he has just 6 Chase runs
* He has a 40% strike rate over fences
* If we forgive him inexperience we can forgive him this

Handicap Chase Runs

* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
* They won 14 of the last 20 renewals
* Every recent winner ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* IMPERIAL COMMANDER has just 1 Handicap Chase run
* COLBERT STATION only has 2 Handicap Chase runs
* JOIN TOGETHER only has 3 Handicap Chase runs
* All of these have already been rejected
* NINETIETH MINUTE only has 3 Handicap runs
* JONCOL runs in his first Handicap Chase today
* We know every past winner ran in at least 4
* JONCOL could have problems with ground and trip
* He clearly looks best around 2m 4f – 2m 6f
* I don’t see him getting home

Past Handicap Chase Wins

* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

Jumping Ability

* You want a decent Jumper of course
* The last 13 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic
* It is something to bear in Mind
* TATENEN has 1 Fall and 3 Unseated riders
* BIG FELLA THANKS has 1 Fall and 3 Unseated riders
* CHICAGO GREY has fallen twice and unseated as well
* AURORAS ENCORE has fallen 3 times and unseated

The 3 Mile Statistic

* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* seabass hasn’t done that but I ignore that
* His 3rd in this race last year trumps that
* I have rejected him for different reasons
* TATENEN has never raced beyond 2m 6f
* His sire hasn’t bred a 3m 3f winner yet
* Coming from the 2m Grand Annual must hurt him
* He moves up almost 2m 4f in distance today

Horses Coming From 2m4f Races

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter
* I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
* No exposed horse won doing that
* TATENEN fails that and makes no appeal
* CHICAGO GREY comes from a 2m 4f race
* More about his chance later on

* BIG FELLA THANKS also comes from 2m 4f
* He has a mixed profile for me
* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran 3 times in this race
* He was beaten 23 28 and 40 lengths
* All 3 times he had a bad profile and excuses
* I don’t think he has a disastrous profile this year
* I think he has a lot of weight for what he’s achieved
* He has more weight this year than for all 3 of his failures
* Not keen he comes from 2m 4f either when exposed
* He probably doesn’t get the trip and I wanted better

* WEIRD AL probably hasn’t got the guts to win this
* His good runs are rare and he is underraced this year
* There is a good chance he wont get home
* His sires runners at 3m 6f and more are 0-40
* AURORAS ENCORE is an exposed 11yo
* His sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet
* Not keen he has fallen 3 times and unseated already
* I don’t see him being good enough
* FORPADYDEPLASTERER has won an Arkle before
* You have to question his stamina here
* His sire’s runners at 3m 4f and more are 1-34
* That sole winner came at Cartmel in a Class 5 race
* He’s exposed and moves up almost 2 miles in trip
* I cant see him overcoming that
* NINETIETH MINUTE has won 1 of his 11 Chase runs
* 18 of the last 19 winners had won at least 3 Chases
* He has less handicap chase experience than past winners
* His form isn’t really good enough to win this
* Liable to hit some fences and he’s fallen twice before
* RARE BOB passes most of my main angles
* He was brought down at the 5th in last years race
* He’s exposed and could be vulnerable to improvers
* I do like that he has improved on all 4 runs this year
* His Racing Post Rating improved each time
* He’s had 4 runs here but hasn’t done much
* He was Brought down in one and Unseated in another
* He was well beaten in the other two
* He has won just 1 of his last 22 races though
* I looked at his record in Chases with 16 + runners
* 3rd 8th BD 16th PU 8th 3rd 4th 4th
* That doesn’t inspire me too much
* I looked at his form over 3m 2f and more
* He’s run this far 5 times in the past
* He was Brought down in one of then in this race
* The other 4 runs saw defeats of 65 59 19 12 lengths
* Not convinced will Stay this far
* He does have a fair statistical chance
* I just don’t trust him to do the business

 

Shortlist

* ACROSS THE BAY passes all my main angles
* He’s won 3 times this season probably not ideal
* That doesn’t take much away from a competent profile
* His Chase record is 7 2 W W PU PU PU 2 UR 2 W
* He has only finished 4 of his 11 Chase runs
* I’d be slightly worried he lacks the substance to win
* Drying Ground could also be a potential issue
* There is a doubt about his stamina in the class
* His Sire’s had winners at 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* None have yet won over further than 3m 5f
* The two winners came in Class 3 and Class 5 races
* He has lots of positives as well though
* He is W W 2 7 W this season
* That “7th” had a genuine excuse in the Welsh National
* He’s had a wind operation which could also help
* Bottom line is he is shortlistable but maybe not 1st choice
* He is too big at 40/1 and more on Betfair

* CHICAGO GREY was brought down early in last years race
* He passes the important angles I like in this race
* CHICAGO GREY has to be considered a potential winner
* I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f chase
* He is well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes
* I do worry about his jumping which isn’t perfect
* Other than that there is a lot to like
* His trainer has a National Pedigree
* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race
* He certainly has the class but there are some worries
* Look at his career record in his 6 Handicap Chases
* He finished 4 of these losing by 25 38 51 50 lengths
* He Unseated rider and was brought down in another
* He has never ran well in a handicap chase before
* He started 20/1 9/1 20/1 4/1 9/4f 11/2f in these races
* He’s one of the best handicapped horses in the race
* CHICAGO GREY – It’s his jumping worrying me most
* It was fine last time but many times before it wasn’t

* COLBERT STATION – Shortlisting him at this stage
* Statistically he does not have a safe profile
* I have given him a free pass to the shortlist stage
* I have been very generous to do that
* I am not prepared to rule him out just yet
* I’m sure McCoy will ride him ahead of Sunnyhillboy
* I have to turn a blind eye to some of his failings
* At this stage its vital not to eliminate the winner
* I love his sire and he should relish the distance
* The fences are easier and the distance shortened
* It could be best to forgive his inexperience
* At this stage he is worth considering for a saver

* ROBERTO GOLDBACK passes my main angles
* He looks a very dangerous floater to me
* He does have a lot of weight with 11st 6lbs
* He also has a lot of smaller field form
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK has won in a 14 runner race
* He was kept wide though and I’m not convinced
* That said his owner bought him to run in this race
* He will either take to the race or he wont
* Not bad for a small bet around 40/1

* TEAFORTHREE has a lot of positives statistically
* He passes all my major angles for the race
* He is basically safe with a few niggles
* Not keen he was only a Novice Chaser last year
* That said so was the 1997 winner so its not a deal breaker
* I’d also worry about how he’s cope if its quick ground
* His last run was poor but that was excusable
* After the Hennessy and Welsh National
* He wanted a longer break before he ran at Haydock
* No Aintree form but neither had many past winners
* TEAFORTHREE deserves a place on the shortlist

* BALLABRIGGS won this race in 2011
* He was 6th last year but had a very weak profile
* He raced just once last season before the National
* He was only beaten 17 lengths into 6th place
* That’s a very credible run without more than 1 prep run
* He had some much fitter horses ahead of him last year
* He was just behind Sunnyhillboy -seabass – Cappa Blue
* BALLABRIGGS now looks fitter than them this year
* BALLABRIGGS has 3 runs this season 2 more than 2012
* Sunnyhillboy – seabass – Cappa Blue all have just two
* These 3 horses have a lot more weight this year
* BALLABRIGGS in contrast has 5lbs less weight
* He is 18lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy
* He is 13lbs better off with seabass
* He is 6lbs better off with Cappa Blue
* He has two more races this season
* Those 3 all had 2 fewer races this season
* I don’t see why he shouldn’t beat them and all of these
* I’d rather have him a bit younger and with another run
* He isn’t though and there are compensations
* One being so many here have 1-2 runs this season
* He’s done it before and will handle any ground
* He’s a safe jumper and I fancy him a lot this year
* I like the price but have to get over one thing
* His Age and weight with three runs this season
* Individually I don’t worry about his age or weight or runs
* Collectively when you combine all three I do
* I looked at horses older than 10 with 10st 12lbs in the race
* They had a 1-46 record in the last 16 renewals
* That was last years winner Neptune Collonges
* He was 11 and had 4 runs that season
* BALLABRIGGS is 12 and has 3 runs this season
* I have to wrestle with that but I have backed him

 

Shortlist Summary

ACROSS THE BAY – CHICAGO GREY
ROBERTO GOLDBACK -TEAFORTHREE
BALLABRIGGS – COLBERT STATION

My Final Selection

ROBERTO GOLDBACK 40/1 Win Bet

BALLABRIGGS 22/1 Win Bet

COLBERT STATION 12/1 Saver ( saver staked to roughly reclaim stake on other two if saver wins)

 

The odds above are from Betfair. Betdaq will offer about the same but are running a 0% commission offer for the Grand National.

If you prefer to go each way at a traditional bookmaker note that most offer five places. Beware a few tightwads who only offer four places. Bet Victor are worth noting due to them paying six places.

See live odds from multiple bookmakers

Best wishes
Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Betting At Lingfield Today

Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1

Statistically this is a horrible little race and one
that will be affected by the draw as the 3 market
leaders have the worst draws 10-11-12 so much
will be down to tactics and a bit of luck. I think
that TEMPLE ROAD is the one because having
watched his recent runs its clear he still has a
ton in hand and I don’t believe he is finished yet.

Racing Post Odds

4/1 Temple Road, 5/1 Black Cadillac, 13/2 Welease Bwian
7/1 Speak The Truth, 8/1 Rich Again, 9/1 Jack My Boy
9/1 Waabel, 10/1 Belle Bayardo, 10/1 Frognal
14/1 My Own Way Home, 16/1 Desert Strike, 25/1 Putin.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* I have been banging on about the 6f draw here
* There have been 65 handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-72 in these 64 races
* That was 0-71 but yesterday a Stall 11 won
* It was a falsely run race and that wouldnt put me off
* I would still much rather avoid the higher stalls
* BLACK CADILLAC has the worst draw in Stall 12
* He won last week and has a sound chance otherwise
* I just cant be with a horse from that stall at the moment
* RICH AGAIN is Drawn 11 also failing that statistic
* The rest of the race is a statistical mess
* No runners have absences almost all run within 2 weeks
* No runners come up in distance either
* There is a shortage of fillies in the race
* Luck will be an important factor here

TEMPLE ROAD won last time and has recent form
figures of W W 3 W. The defeat two runs ago was a
strange one. He looked to win easily and went 1.01
in running but somehow ended up on the far rail and
got caught. He did win last time and watching it on
video he had a ton in hand and wasnt even extended.
This horse still looks very well treated. With a good
passage he could outclass these. The problem is
that whilst the draw stats say avoid horses drawn 11
or more TEMPLE ROAD is drawn 10 and thats a bit
higher than I’d like. Visual impressions of him tells
me to ignore that. This looks a horse that should win.

Selection

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1 William Hill    bet365   Tote

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Aintree Horse Betting Advice

Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at stan james

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Chepstow

A good effort  last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from betfred as

#1 – Their best odds guarantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 – The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second so you would have been left with just a winning place bet.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and something for Chepstow.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

You need to think long term over many bets not just “on the day” however.

More detail on that thinking at a future point perhaps.

=============================

C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

Nb Want to play it differently yourself the above is a potential leg of an each way double. Full members have been advised of a suitable second horse for that. As ever we are hampered with not wanting to annoy full members by puting too much up here on the free blog.

For more info on the full service click here Betting Advice

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Horse Betting Message For Saturday

We have recently introduced a few changes to the full member service messages.

I thought that this Saturday instead of just pulling out one small section of the message for the free blog we would give you the whole thing.

You can see the clear cut advised bet at the top under the Daily Recommendations Section.

Also there are extra races assessed with a lot of stats and info aimed at providing a bit of extra help to those who like to make their own final horse betting or horse laying  decissions.

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Mathematician 753

Daily Recommendation

Stratford 2.20

RUSSIAN GEORGE 5/2

Win Bet

11/4 Stan J – BoyleSports- bet365 – Blue Sq
5/2  VC – betfred -Sky
Some firms have not yet priced up.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS

I hope a few of you are on the same double as me today after Kinigi won yesterday. Those that had that bet will now be on RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT at prices between 25/1 and 33/1 depending on what odds you got. Win lose or draw it is a great position to be in so all we need now is some luck.

It is a strange Saturday. There are 5 meetings and 3 of these look rough. I can’t see much at Kempton and rarely commit to anything there. It’s dissapointing that on an 8 race card at THIRSK I can’t find more than 2 races to preview. That said I have problems at this track and it usually gets the better of me and little point in trying to tackle races there that look  too difficult so I’ve settled on the two races. STRATFORD’s thrown up one decent race I like.WOLVERHAMPTON has nothing aside from a negative so HAYDOCK provides most of the previews today and overall there are just 7 of them.

I’m Leaving Thirsk alone today. I thought about having a
bit on Select Commitee in the 4.40pm but deep down I am
sceptical I have enough negatives in the race. I’m locked in with yesterdays double in the 3.05pm so I am letting both those doubles run and laying both back in running at Evens. I wouldnt put anyone off an interest bet in the Group 1 race at Haydock 3.35pm and Kinsgate Native each way but thats all it would be for me and I am not that bothered about the  race. Like many races today it’s a bitting and bobbing day.

The stand out bet for me has always been at Stratford in a
Novice Hurdle at 2.20pm. Its the first race in the message
so we will know our fate early. RUSSIAN GEORGE has to
be my main bet today. I have a favourite who has a poor
profile that I want to take on. RUSSIAN GEORGE is like
24 horses running in similar races and these 24 finished as
follows – 1 2 1 5 1 3 1 2 F 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 2 F 1 so given that he isnt even favourite he has to be the best bet.

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

No selection yesterday but KINIGI the only horse I had
in the message won. I hope most people either backed
him or had the same doubles as me. Some did both and I
wish I had now. Nothing official though so a blank day
but on a 1 race day it was nice to have 1 winner on it.

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T O D A Y ‘S  R A C I N G

STRATFORD 2.20

Lafarge GTEC Plasterboard Solutions
Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m110y

11/4 Tout Regulier, 7/2 Russian George, 7/2 Unleashed
4/1 Saltagioo, 12/1 Addwaitya, 12/1 That´s Some Milan
16/1 Chadwell Spring, 20/1 Celtic Dragon 20/1 Hector Spectre 100/1 High Dee Jay.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 529 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 529 Novice Hurdles at 16f and 17f July-September
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has the best profile
* TOUT REGULIER may be worth opposing
* TOUT REGULIER pulled up in a handicap 13 days ago
* Thats hardly the greatest preparation but it’s more than that
* Horses that came from Handicap Hurdles won 48 races
* Those that came from 2m 5f or more were 0-22 though
* That makes TOUT REGULIER unsafe
* TOUT REGULIER is also a Mare
* Female horses like her coming from 2m 5f or more were 4-89
* Those with 7 or more career starts were 0-26 and she has 14
* Mares aged 6 or more from 2m 5f or more had a 0-52 record
* TOUT REGULIER fails both those angles
* At the very least she has to be unsafe back in distance
* UNLEASHED pulled up in a Maiden hurdle last time
* Horses doing that in the last 3 months were 1-80
* He may pop in but his last run makes him look weak
* SALTAGIOO has plenty to prove after a poor last run
* RUSSIAN GEORGE should be favourite here
* He isnt as others are rated higher in the race
* Thats a worry but it ensures a better price
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has this profile
* Horses aged 4 winning a Novice Hurdle last time
* Running within a Month
* No form in Class 2 or higher before
* Having between 3-6 runs
* There were 24 horses with that profile and 13 won
* The 24 finished in these positions
* 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 F F
* That looks a serious record
* It’s why RUSSIAN GEORGE has to be the selection

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HAYDOCK 2.30

betfred “The Bonus King” Be Friendly Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 5f

6/1 Golden Destiny, 9/1 Anglezarke, 10/1 Courageous
10/1 Strike Up The Band, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Haajes, Medici Time, Pavershooz, 12/1 Secret Millionaire 14/1 Cheveton, 14/1 Confessional, 14/1 Lucky Numbers 14/1 Reignier, Desert Phantom, 20/1 Piscean, 25/1 Solemn.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* There has been 57 similar races at this time of year
* GOLDEN DESTINY is a 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4 have a 0-43 record in the 57 races
* Fillies only won 6 of the 57 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 2-66
* Those like GOLDEN DESTINY from handicaps were 0-35
* None carried her weight either
* GOLDEN DESTINY is not right statistically
* ANGLEZARKE is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* Fillies with 9 or more career starts were 3-118
* Those without at least 9 runs that year are 1-71
* That winner came from a Group race
* ANGLEZARKE lacks relevant handicap form as well
* FAVOURITE GIRL is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* All fillies like her from 6f races were 0-43
* On a career high mark  FAVOURITE GIRL looks weak
* ARCHERS ROAD is 3 and has 19 career starts
* Horses aged 3 with 13 or more runs were 3-62
* None had under 6 runs that season
* ARCHERS ROAD has only 3 runs
* None of them were absent as long as he is
* ARCHERS ROAD has plenty to prove for a 3yo

* Horses absent 7 + weeks have a 2-65 record
* Those aged 4 or more with that absence were 0-38
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that
* No 4yo like DESERT PHANTOM won absent a month
* None of the 57 winners came from 7f or further
* LUCKY NUMBERS is hard to fancy coming from 8f
* Not with a career high mark and no wins above Class 4
* SOLEMN is exposed and lost by 10 + lengths last time
* Only 1 of the 57 winners did that
* That horse had Group 2 class form and didnt run recently
* SOLEMN lacks that and looks weak on a career high mark
* He has never won out of a Class 4 race yet
* MEDICI TIME is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has no pattern class form before
* Horses with that profile were 3-40
* All 3 winners had more runs that season than he has
* MEDICI TIME is also on a tough handicap mark
* He is 8lbs higher than his best previous winning rating
* He is unplaced in his 5 races beyond a Class 4 race
* He will need a career best to win this
* CONFESSIONAL is from a 3yo handicap with 16 runs
* Horses from 3yo handicaps with 9 + runs were 2-45
* Both winners had Group Class form before
* CONFESSIONAL lacks that
* Both winners came from Class 3 handicaps
* Those like CONFESSIONAL from Class 2 races were 0-18
* CONFESSIONAL is not close enough to any winners
* HAAJES is an exposed 6 year old from a 5f race
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race
* Horses like that without a run in 7 days were 1-30
* Its no more than an average profile
* HAAJES has ran in 12 Class 2 races and unplaced 12 times
* On a Career high mark there are some worries there

POSSIBLES

* PISCEAN is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has listed class form but no Group class form
* There were 5 winners with that profile
* Males like him beaten 6 + lengths last time were 1-12
* That winner had an absence but he isnt too far away
* PISCEAN will probably find something to beat him
* Statistically there are worse profiles and he looks a possible
* It worries me he is 0-19 in fields of 13 or more though
* REIGNIER is 3 and has been absent 63 days
* There were 2 winners aged 3 absent over a Month
* These had slightly fewer runs but he has 9 and thats ok
* Both winners had 3 runs that season as he does
* Neither came from a Group race as he did last time
* Neither were beaten as far as he was last time
* COURAGEOUS is 4 and absent a month
* We know no 4 year old won with that absence
* He only just fails it though and I’d overlook that
* He does have his first run for Dandy Nicholls today
* There would be a slight added risk because of that

SELECTION

* STRIKE UP THE BAND may be ready to win again
* He was 3rd in this race last year
* Last year he faced a difficult 51 day absence
* This year he ran just 5 days ago
* Last year he ran off a rating of 100
* This year he runs only off 87
* STRIKE UP THE BAND carries 8lbs less weight as well
* STRIKE UP THE BAND has a great chance in my view

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THIRSK 2.55

Hambleton Cup Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

5/2 Green Lightning, 7/2 George Adamson, 9/2 Lady Luachmhar
13/2 Ethics Girl, 8/1 Brouhaha, 8/1 River Ardeche
10/1 Snow Dancer, 12/1 Kames Park.

This is a 12f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. There are 391
similar races at this time of year. I think its worth looking for an alternative each way to GREEN LIGHTNING. There are 4 options for me. None have outstanding profiles but it’s probably worth trying to find one to beat him. The problem I have with GREEN LIGHTNING is his 2f drop in distance.

* Horses from 3yo Handicaps over 14f struggled
* Those with 4 or more career starts were 2-48
* Those with under 6 runs that season were 0-26
* GREEN LIGHTNING only has 4 starts
* Those beaten more than 10 lengths last time were 0-28
* GREEN LIGHTNING also fails that

I just think GREEN LIGHTNING falls a bit short of what is
required. I didnt like BROUHAHA as I could not match him
with an absence and a poor last run. ETHICS GIRL may just
want more runs and KAMES PARK didnt achieve enough on
his last run. I think there are 4 possible choices in this race. I felt GEORGE ADAMSON lacked a bit of backclass leaving him a litle unsafe. LADY LUACHMHAR is a 4yo filly down from a 2m race. I found 2 similar winners but neither had less than 13 career starts and she has 9 runs so again she is a little unsafe. RIVER ARDECHE is shortlistable but I’d have liked a bit better last run. SNOW DANCER is also worth considering. I felt one of these 4 each way was the sensible bet and given the choice I just prefered RIVER ARDECHE each way at 16/1.

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HAYDOCK 3.05

betfred Kingspin Old Borough Cup (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kansai Spirit, 13/2 Lady Eclair, 13/2 Red Cadeaux
12/1 Chilly Filly, 12/1 Recession Proof, 14/1 Ajaan
14/1 Braveheart Move, Rangefinder, 14/1 Woolfall Treasure
16/1 Becausewecan, 16/1 Cotillion, 20/1 Crackentorp
20/1 Moon Indigo, 20/1 Perfect Shot, 20/1 Porgy
33/1 Shipmaster, 40/1 Macarthur.

* The Old Borough Cup is a 14f Handicsap
* There are 10 renewals of this race
* It has been upgraded in status over the years
* I’m looking at the 10 past renewals
* I’m also looking at 35 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* Looking at the angles in this race they are as follows
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-55 record
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-29
* Horses aged 6 or more were 0-36
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-64)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-69)
* Every past winner was a Male horse
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more (0-40)
* No winners came from 11f or shorter
* This leaves a shortlist of 2 runners
* RED CADEAUX – KANSAI SPIRIT

There are 35 similar races at this time of year. None of them were as old as SHIPMASTER or absent as long. There were 4 winners aged 6 or more. They all had at least 4 runs that year and AJAAN looks weak with just 2 runs this year. All horses his age that won also had much less weight. RANGEFINDER  is also a 6 year old. He only won a Class 4 handicap last time  and no winner his age won any handicap last time over 14f or 16f and I see him unsafe on a career high mark coming from  a 0-80 race to a 0-100 contest. We know exposed horses are 0-57 record in this race. In 35 similar races they had a 4-153 record. Those from 12f or shorter were 0-59 and it puts me off MACARTHUR who was also beaten too far last time. I’m worried about BECAUSEWECAN as he is a 4yo and exposed  and in all similar races these types are 0-20. The few exposed
horses that won these races all had light seasons. Those with 7 or more runs that year were 0-52 and BECAUSEWECAN
fails that. WOOLFALL TREASURE also fails that and does
not make any appeal as another exposed horse on a career
high mark. I would oppose PORGY coming from a 10f race.
BRAVEHEART MOVE is also rejected coming from 10f too.
I dont like the record of fillies. None have won this race and No filly like LADY ECLAIR won last time. She is a 4yo filly and so far all 23 of those have been beaten in these 35 races. CHILLY FILLY is also a 4yo filly (0-23) and she comes from a 12f race and the only fillies to do that had Listed and Group class form and she does not. RECESSION PROOF has got too long an absence and looks underraced. MOON INDIGO comes from a Group 2 race. None of the 35 winners had ever run in a Group 1-2 race before never mind come from one. None of the 35 winners came from Group races unless they were 3 year olds and MOON INDIGO looks unsafe with 2 runs this season. Horses coming from 12f races with 9 or more career starts are 3-172 a miserable record. CRACKENTORP fails that and his last run was not good enough and no winners were similar to him. In the 35 renewals there were only 3 winners that hadn’t run in at least a Class 2 race before and they were all 3 year
olds. No older horse aged 4 or more failed to have run beyond a Class 3 race before telling me COTILLION lacks backclass to win this. Horses aged 4 with 13 or more career starts had a 2-100 record. PERFECT SHOT fails that. He has 3 career wins and horses in that 2-100 record with more than 2 wins were 0-67. I see PERFECT SHOT as unsafe and not for me.

I had 2 horses shortlisted on my Old Borough stats. I was left  with RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT. I had a look at
KANSAI SPIRIT as a 4 year old with 7-12 runs and 1-2-3-4
runs that year. There were 3 winners but they all came from
better class races. I think he lacks backclass. If you look at all horses aged 4 or older that had never run in a Class 2 race or better before there is a 0-22 record and I just felt that he lacked backclass. You have to accept he could be improving fast but because of the superior backclass he has I would see RED CADEAUX as better statistically. His problem may be the drying ground. It will help his stamina but he likes softer ground and thats the main issue with RED CADEAUX. This is always a track that is well watered though. He is my choice

SELECTION – RED CADEAUX

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HAYDOCK 3.35

betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)  6f

7/4 Starspangledbanner, 9/2 Regal Parade, 9/1 Kingsgate Native 9/1 Markab, 10/1 Lady Of The Desert, 12/1 Borderlescott 16/1 Rainfall, 20/1 Doncaster Rover, 20/1 Genki 20/1 Prime Defender, 40/1 Our Jonathan, 50/1 Barney Mcgrew 50/1 Serious Attitude, 66/1 Sir Gerry, 100/1 Iver Bridge Lad 200/1 Fullandby

The betfred Sprint Cup has never been a great race for strong angles despite a long history. I looked at the last 20 renewals of this race. None of them were 3yo fillies so I would oppose RAINFALL who is less experienced than any past winner and LADY OF THE DESERT who has the added problem in going down from an 8f race. Go back to 1966 in this race and only 1 winner was aged 7 or more. No winners since 1966 were aged 8  like BORDERLESCOTT and MARKAB is also older than ideal and has a bit to prove anyway. DONCASTER ROVER has the bridge from Listed Class to Group 1 to overcome something I dont think he will manage. Only 3 winners have won this race without Past Group 1 form  and they all had under 13 runs and  I think that suggests he will lack the class. The issue with those horses from 5f races is simple. There were 5 winners and they
all came from the Nunthorpe like STARSPANGLEDBANNER
and  KINGSGATE NATIVE. The better record comes from 4
year olds like STARSPANGLEDBANNER. It’s also interesting
every horse coming from the Nunthrope were beaten less than  4 lengths last time out. STARSPANGLEDBANNER managed
that but KINGSGATE NATIVE was beaten 5.5 lengths so just
marginally fails that angle. The issue with REGAL PARADE
is no past winner as old as him dropped in distance so I can’t match him to any past winner well enough. Statistically I see STARSPANGLEDBANNER as having the best chance but it’s a tight call and I dont see his price any bigger than it should be and at the prices I prefer KINGSGATE NATIVE. His profile is ony wrong as he lost by a little further in the Nunthorpe than ideal but that was a joke race where they went off far too hard and it was a false pace and KINGSGATE NATIVE had a weak profile that day and a bad draw. He looks the best value here.

Selection – KINGSGATE NATIVE Each Way 8/1 +

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THIRSK 4.40

See You Next Year Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 6f

5/1 Divertimenti, 11/2 Select Committee, 6/1 Avontuur
6/1 Rainy Night, 8/1 Mullglen, 8/1 Foreign Rhythm
10/1 Cross of Lorraine, 10/1 Secret City, 14/1 Pearly Wey
16/1 Dispol Grand, 16/1 Sea Rover, 20/1 Avertuoso
33/1 The Happy Hammer

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses. There has been 406 similar races at this time of year. It looks open and not an easy race. I wasnt keen on DIVERTIMENTI. I looked at all exposed horses like him that had just won a 6f handicap but did not run within 2 weeks. There were 3 winners doing that but none were like him. None were aged 6 or more and the 3 horses that did it all had form in a Class 2 race before and he has never been out of a Class 4 race before and that’s left me doubting his chance of following up. PEARLY WEY  doesnt come out well not doing enough last time out. I dont see a great case for CROSS OF LORRAINE. All similar types that went up in distance all had more backclass and that does hurt his profile and the booking of Paul Hanagan is probably shortening his price. On his profile there are doubts. Another 5f trip jumper  DISPOL GRAND didnt do enough last time. I see SEA ROVER underraced this year coming from a 5f race. I see AVERTUOSO as opposable. There are 5 horses that I’d
have to argue are “Possibles” and one selection.

POSSIBLES

AVONTUUR – 1 similar winner but badly treated
FOREIGN RHYTHM – Mare from 5f. I’d prefer recent run
RAINY NIGHT – Shortlistable but not quite right
MULLGLEN – I’d have liked less weight but chances
SECRET CITY – Would be much better with a recent run

SELECTION

SELECT COMMITTEE would be a Positive for me. It would
not worry me he hasnt won at 6f before. It wouldnt worry me he comes from a 5f race either because he has a recent run and  is well raced and fit. This trip could be what he has needed for  sometime now and I dont see many better profiles.

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HAYDOCK 4.45

betfred.com Stakes (Registered As The Ascendant Stakes)
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 1m30y

4/6 Measuring Time, 4/1 Robin Hood, 6/1 Sonning Rose
12/1 Rhythm Of Light, 20/1 Claret´n´blue, 20/1 Singapore Lilly.

This is a Listed class race for 2 year olds over a Mile. It has had just 1 year’s history so I have looked at the 24 races like this at all tracks. These 24 races show horses that had  just 1 career start had a 0-19 record so RHYTHM OF LIGHT and CLARET´N´BLUE look underraced. Horses that came from Nurseries have a 0-18 record so SINGAPORE LILLY looks a horse to avoid. These would be my negatives. I think the other runners will provide the winner. ROBIN HOOD looks impossible to rate coming from Ireland but few past winners were beaten far last time and he was. Without any doubt the best profile belongs to favourite MEASURING TIME.

* Horses coming from the Solario Stakes last time
* Finishing 2nd or 3rd last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 4-5 record
* They finished W W W 2 W
* MEASURING TIME has that profile and looks best

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W O L V E R H A M P T O N

Not bothering with the Wolverhampton card as the earlier
racing has taken up a bit too much time and I did not fancy  much at all there. There is a quick statistic in the opening race at 5.50pm that I want to mention and see how it does.

* August-September have 315 maidens for 2yo’s at less than 6f
* Horses that started 66/1 or more last time out were 0-221

The favourite in this 5.50pm race is PLUME DE MA TANTE
and she started 66/1 only 10 days ago in a Catterick Race. The conidence behind her must have been slim. Yes she ran well in 2nd that day but on a tricky track and she comes out after just 10 days and starts favourite against many possible winners. My  interest will be in watching how PLUME DE MA TANTE gets on and seeing if She overcomes the 0-221 statistic in this race.  Its an obscure stat admittedly but it’s still 0-221 and because of  that I predict she will lose.

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Posted under horse racing tips