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Posted under Main Content

Best Bet today is ICELANDIC 4/1 in the Doncaster 2.40.
He won the race last year and I think he can do it again in
an easier renewal full of negatives. Going with him only as
a suggestion today. I did think about a Full Bet on him but
the stable are just coming out of a virus and havent had a
winner since April. Even with that worry I still feel he is
going to win this race but I would have liked to have seen
a few more runners and winners from the stable. I thought
about an each way bet but I think he is a better win bet. I
did think about splitting a bet with two win bets and the
double with PEPE SIMO in the first at Wincanton but he
is odds on now and I would only have done that if he’d
have been bigger than evens. In the end on what is a hard
Saturday without any all weather support I think the best
thing to do is stay with ICELANDIC as a mention. He is
the one horse in the race that I could bet. Think he wins.

Doncaster 2.40

ICELANDIC 4/1

****************************************************
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T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

DONCASTER 2.40

Best Odds Guaranteed At Totesport.com Wentworth Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Sir Gerry, 4/1 Icelandic, 5/1 Prescription, 6/1 Able Master 8/1 Desert Phantom,
10/1 Festoso, 12/1 Fullandby, 20/1 Arthur´s Edge, 20/1 Crystal Moments,
25/1 Lovely Thought, 33/1 Saxford 50/1 Protector, 500/1 Vanadium.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 16 renewals of this race
* There’s been 35 similar races elsewhere at this time of year
* VANADIUM cant win at the weights
* I see the following horses as weak statistically
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* PROTECTOR is older than any past winner
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* I would ignore all horses that havent had that
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that absent 398 days
* His trainer states he is very burly and will need the run
* He wont be placed if he is as unfit as he suggests
* SAXFORD fails that and looks badly underraced
* SIR GERRY also fails this with 1 run this year
* SIR GERRY also has a 178 day absence to overcome
* His trainer says he will come on a lot for the run
* SIR GERRY has also downgraded stables this year
* I dont see him as fit enough to win
* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* FESTOSO fails that and looks opposable
* Hard to win a Listed race on the back of a poor last run
* I dont see an older filly like her overcoming that
* 3 year olds have the worst record
* Those aged 3 with 7 + career runs were 1-60
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has 14 runs
* Thats quite an exposed 3 year old
* ABLE MASTER also has to come down in trip
* Only 1 past winner dropped in trip to win this
* No 3 year old like him managed it in any similar races
* CRYSTAL MOMENTS has the same problem
* She is another 3yo coming down in distance
* She looks too exposed to be doing that
* LOVELY THOUGHT fails the same statistic
* She is not going to win an all aged Listed race
* Not coming from a Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds

* SHORTLIST

* FULLANDBY - PRESCRIPTION - ICELANDIC

* I am confident enough that one of these should win
* FULLANDBY and PRESCRIPTION come from handicaps
* They come from Class 3 handicaps
* I looked at the 35 similar races to this
* There were 8 winners that came from handicaps
* All 8 winners came from Class 2 handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps in lower grades were 0-40
* This suggests that this pair could fall short of whats required
* I think you can give them a better chance than that though
* FULLANDBY won easily just 4 days ago and is very fit
* FULLANDBY has ran in 8 Listed -Group Class races before
* All he has to show for it is one third place
* He usually gets found out at this level
* I think this is his best chance of winning one
* I think FULLANDBY will place
* I think he is one of the best place only bets today
* PRESCRIPTION also comes from a Class 3 handicap
* Statistically thats not really enough
* If you take the 35 similar Listed class sprints
* All 35 winners had all ran in at least Class 2 before
* PRESCRIPTON has not done that yet
* Every horse in this race has done that except two
* PRESCRIPTION and Arthurs Edge have yet to do that
* PRESCRIPTION is respected as he finally gets her ground
* Purely on her profile she ought to find 1-2 too good

SELECTION

ICELANDIC - Win Bet
FULLANDBY - Saver or place bet

ICELANDIC won this last year and is solid again. His
trainer has been savaged by the Virus all year and has
given a note of caution because of this. He states …..

“The year has been a disaster. We are probably
over the worst but whether Icelandic is 100 per cent I
don’t know. Soft ground will be in his favour”

That looks the only obstacle to him winning. He won
this easily last year from the same stall.  On Ratings
this is a much weaker race. This race on average official
ratings is 8lbs weaker than last years race.
This is a horse that hasnt been fit or right all year.
His last run at Ascot was much better than it looked.
He wasnt fancied. He was facing a 55 day break and its hard
for a 7 year old to win a Group Race when facing that absence.
The race he ran in last time was a much better class race than
this where every horse was rated 101 or more. He ran much better
than it looked staying on without being given a hard race
and not having the run of the race at all. He should be at
his peak today. Older horses have an excellent record in
this race. Horses like him aged 7 are 3-7 in this contest.
I think ICELANDIC will peak today and win this again.
I see FULLANDBY as the danger and its up to you if
you want saver on him around 7/1 or want a place bet
on him instead as a saver. I expect ICELANDIC to win.

Posted under horse racing tips

Chester 2.25

BERTOLIVER 5/1 William Hill

For best live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-08-22/chester/14-25/betting/

Win Bet

Just one selection on BERTOLIVER at Chester. Feels like a
subdued Saturday with less Racing and some smaller fields and in an attempt to find my best bet at decent odds there were not many options and only one horse that came close to being a bet and that’s BERTOLIVER. There are issue at Chester over 5 furlongs like the start and how fast they go and there is also a false rail there today so plenty of factors in this race that we can not be sure about but I think I’ve made a good enough case for BERTOLIVER to be worth a bet around 5/1 and the race has plenty of negatives as well which should increase his chance.

CHESTER 2.25

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) 5f16y

7/2 Glamorous Spirit, 9/2 Bertoliver, 6/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 7/1 Invincible Lad, 7/1 Tyfos, 10/1 Le Toreador, 12/1 Misaro, 14/1 Supermassive Muse, 16/1 Rasaman, 20/1 Total Impact, 33/1 Methaaly, 33/1 Sands Crooner, 33/1 Stolt.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Chester has had 34 of these races in August and September and there has been 497 similar handicaps elsewhere. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has to go as a 3yo filly from a 3yo handicap. In 497 races there were just three Fillies who managed to win with that profile. Of these 3 fillies none had a weight she has or were beaten as far as she was last time and none were as exposed as She is. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has 15 runs. Look at 3yo fillies with 13 or more runs from 3yo handicaps and since 1993 you see a 0-57 record. The problem in this race is that every runner has a recent race and is well raced and the strength in depth is enormous. RASAMAN does not appeal as horses from 6f claimers were miserable. I suppose that as Chester has had 34 handicaps in the last 3 seasons at 5 furlongs and that stalls 11 or more were 0-56 we should throw out the high drawn horses so METHAALY is rejected as is SANDS CROONER - STOLT and TOTAL IMPACT as well. SUPERMASSIVE MUSE won this last year and was well beaten last year before this race just as he is this year. The difference for me now is he is exposed now and doesnt have the same preparation and I ran his profile through 497 races and no horse like him won. Exposed 4 year olds beaten 10 lengths or more last time like him were poor and those without at least nine runs that season were 0-76 so he isnt for me. I dont fancy TYRANNOSAURUS REX. When he won here in June it was a Career best. He has to better than today in a better class race from a higher handicap mark and I dont see him doing that from a stable that are really struggling and when he may have gone off the boil himself. MISARO needs close to a career best and he may pop up but he is getting on now as an 8 year old and his last win came against “seniors” aged 6 or more in a much lower class race and the percentage call is that he will probably find something faster. TYFOS has stall 1. Very complicated sort of profile as a 4 year old down in trip with an intermediate sort of absence.

Statistically he did enough to get on a shortlist but I wasnt impressed enough. I felt he wanted a more recent run and he lacks backclass and that worries me. After all every other horse in this race has ran in a higher grade before than TYFOS has and you can ignore that for lightly raced horses but he has 16 runs now. Thrown in the fact he was outpaced and beaten the only time he ran at Chester over this trip and he doesnt have any other runs at 5f and when you consider the Dam won over hurdles and in a Bumper you wonder where he will get the speed for a race over 5 furlongs. I am not sold on his chance

SHORTLIST

BERTOLIVER -LE TOREADOR  -INVINCIBLE LAD

LE TOREADOR has an excellent chance and excellent profile
and ran much better than it looked last time but his problem is probably Stall 8 and how much luck he gets from that. Take the last 17 handicaps here over 5f. In these 17 races 16 of the 17 to win were drawn lower than Stall 8. LE TOREADOR will have to have some luck to win. INVINCIBLE LAD ran really well last  time at Goodwood and if he repeats that he could well win. My only worries here are no form at Chester and a Career high mark. He has a habit of starting slowly and thet wont help him here and he is riSky.

SELECTION

BERTOLIVER is well treated and he looks likely to burst out and try and make all. Whether he folds like he did last time at Newbury or not is another matter. It may have been a bit soft for him last time as he wants it fast and he does love it here so everything looks placed for a serious run from the front and he should trade low in running. He looks a win bet. Phillip Robinson is an eye catching booking and this looks his race.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 3.15

7/4 Cosmopolitan, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect,
7/1 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, 12/1 Penzena.

SELECTION - COSMOPOLITAN

This is a 8f Fillies Handicap for 0-84 rated horses and there’s been 11 renewals of this race and 68 elsewhere. Horses with 3 runs struggle. I wouldn’t be interested in PENZENA with 3 runs LYCENA is a seasonal debutant. I do not like that profile. I’ve found 3 that won first time out much as none dropped in trip as she does. I would not see her as a selection. ASTRODONNA has a poor profile and none were like her in 68 races. I have no major problems with SOMETHING PERFECT but None like him won this race at Newmarket but did win other races at other tracks.
SOMETHING PERFECT looks competetive to me but a win on
her debut has left her hardly thrown in. FANDITHA has a chance as well but I could only bet one horse.

COSMOPOLITAN is a 4yo thats just won a maiden. There
were four runners that did that and 3 won. In this race there were 3 doing it and 2 of these won so COSMOPOLITAN looks a big positive. She gave 11lbs to 3 year olds from some big stables when winning a maiden over 3 lengths last time. That suggests to me she could outclass a 0-76 class field like this. She has a Group 1 entry but the fact she has 8lbs more than any other horse and only has a 0-76 class field to beat swings it for me.

SELECTION - COSMOPOLITAN
7/4 at Tote and Ladbrokes

Check other odds here http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-06-20/newmarket/15-15/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

No Firm Selections today but I have jotted down a few thoughts on
the meeting at Catterick

Best Live Odds available at the link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/today
===============================================
C  A  T  T  E  R  I  C  K

The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty.
Statistically the problem is these races are very rare.
There has only been 5 selling races in May over 11f - 13f in the last 15 years
so we are partially blind to what it takes to win a race like this.
Throw in some really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard.
I would be against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT MAYADEEN and SAGUNT.
Several here look more than good enough to win a race like this.
My best guess would beTERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning
a handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying ground and brings
form and fitness into the race. Its an open contest though and stakes would need to be low

I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a seller last time.
You then have Positivity who was beaten 33 lengths just 8 days ago and surely
thats too far a defeat to overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved
she has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his debut this year.
I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE isnt odds on.
He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he will win but if he
drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be then you would be quite worried.
All things being equal I feel DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to win.
CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently. Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1.
He is experienced like most of the past winners of this race were.
He drops from 6f which looks a sensible mood.
After the market move I watched him on video
and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.

I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up in distance.
MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see any more half decent negatives
and didnt feel I have enough to take a strong view about the race.

VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.

WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f  Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race.

The last race at 5.15pm is a mess.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips