We have recently introduced a few changes to the full member service messages.
I thought that this Saturday instead of just pulling out one small section of the message for the free blog we would give you the whole thing.
You can see the clear cut advised bet at the top under the Daily Recommendations Section.
Also there are extra races assessed with a lot of stats and info aimed at providing a bit of extra help to those who like to make their own final horse betting or horse laying decissions.
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Mathematician 753
Daily Recommendation
Stratford 2.20
RUSSIAN GEORGE 5/2
Win Bet
11/4 s james – BoyleSports- bet365 – Blue Square
5/2 VC – betfred -Sky
Some firms have not yet priced up.
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MESSAGE THOUGHTS
I hope a few of you are on the same double as me today after Kinigi won yesterday. Those that had that bet will now be on RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT at prices between 25/1 and 33/1 depending on what odds you got. Win lose or draw it is a great position to be in so all we need now is some luck.
It is a strange Saturday. There are 5 meetings and 3 of these look rough. I can’t see much at Kempton and rarely commit to anything there. It’s dissapointing that on an 8 race card at THIRSK I can’t find more than 2 races to preview. That said I have problems at this track and it usually gets the better of me and little point in trying to tackle races there that look too difficult so I’ve settled on the two races. STRATFORD’s thrown up one decent race I like.WOLVERHAMPTON has nothing aside from a negative so HAYDOCK provides most of the previews today and overall there are just 7 of them.
I’m Leaving Thirsk alone today. I thought about having a
bit on Select Commitee in the 4.40pm but deep down I am
sceptical I have enough negatives in the race. I’m locked in with yesterdays double in the 3.05pm so I am letting both those doubles run and laying both back in running at Evens. I wouldnt put anyone off an interest bet in the Group 1 race at Haydock 3.35pm and Kinsgate Native each way but thats all it would be for me and I am not that bothered about the race. Like many races today it’s a bitting and bobbing day.
The stand out bet for me has always been at Stratford in a
Novice Hurdle at 2.20pm. Its the first race in the message
so we will know our fate early. RUSSIAN GEORGE has to
be my main bet today. I have a favourite who has a poor
profile that I want to take on. RUSSIAN GEORGE is like
24 horses running in similar races and these 24 finished as
follows – 1 2 1 5 1 3 1 2 F 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 2 F 1 so given that he isnt even favourite he has to be the best bet.
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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE
No selection yesterday but KINIGI the only horse I had
in the message won. I hope most people either backed
him or had the same doubles as me. Some did both and I
wish I had now. Nothing official though so a blank day
but on a 1 race day it was nice to have 1 winner on it.
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T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G
STRATFORD 2.20
Lafarge GTEC Plasterboard Solutions
Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m110y
11/4 Tout Regulier, 7/2 Russian George, 7/2 Unleashed
4/1 Saltagioo, 12/1 Addwaitya, 12/1 That´s Some Milan
16/1 Chadwell Spring, 20/1 Celtic Dragon 20/1 Hector Spectre 100/1 High Dee Jay.
* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 529 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 529 Novice Hurdles at 16f and 17f July-September
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has the best profile
* TOUT REGULIER may be worth opposing
* TOUT REGULIER pulled up in a handicap 13 days ago
* Thats hardly the greatest preparation but it’s more than that
* Horses that came from Handicap Hurdles won 48 races
* Those that came from 2m 5f or more were 0-22 though
* That makes TOUT REGULIER unsafe
* TOUT REGULIER is also a Mare
* Female horses like her coming from 2m 5f or more were 4-89
* Those with 7 or more career starts were 0-26 and she has 14
* Mares aged 6 or more from 2m 5f or more had a 0-52 record
* TOUT REGULIER fails both those angles
* At the very least she has to be unsafe back in distance
* UNLEASHED pulled up in a Maiden hurdle last time
* Horses doing that in the last 3 months were 1-80
* He may pop in but his last run makes him look weak
* SALTAGIOO has plenty to prove after a poor last run
* RUSSIAN GEORGE should be favourite here
* He isnt as others are rated higher in the race
* Thats a worry but it ensures a better price
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has this profile
* Horses aged 4 winning a Novice Hurdle last time
* Running within a Month
* No form in Class 2 or higher before
* Having between 3-6 runs
* There were 24 horses with that profile and 13 won
* The 24 finished in these positions
* 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 F F
* That looks a serious record
* It’s why RUSSIAN GEORGE has to be the selection
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HAYDOCK 2.30
betfred “The Bonus King” Be Friendly Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 5f
6/1 Golden Destiny, 9/1 Anglezarke, 10/1 Courageous
10/1 Strike Up The Band, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Haajes, Medici Time, Pavershooz, 12/1 Secret Millionaire 14/1 Cheveton, 14/1 Confessional, 14/1 Lucky Numbers 14/1 Reignier, Desert Phantom, 20/1 Piscean, 25/1 Solemn.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* There has been 57 similar races at this time of year
* GOLDEN DESTINY is a 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4 have a 0-43 record in the 57 races
* Fillies only won 6 of the 57 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 2-66
* Those like GOLDEN DESTINY from handicaps were 0-35
* None carried her weight either
* GOLDEN DESTINY is not right statistically
* ANGLEZARKE is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* Fillies with 9 or more career starts were 3-118
* Those without at least 9 runs that year are 1-71
* That winner came from a Group race
* ANGLEZARKE lacks relevant handicap form as well
* FAVOURITE GIRL is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* All fillies like her from 6f races were 0-43
* On a career high mark FAVOURITE GIRL looks weak
* ARCHERS ROAD is 3 and has 19 career starts
* Horses aged 3 with 13 or more runs were 3-62
* None had under 6 runs that season
* ARCHERS ROAD has only 3 runs
* None of them were absent as long as he is
* ARCHERS ROAD has plenty to prove for a 3yo
* Horses absent 7 + weeks have a 2-65 record
* Those aged 4 or more with that absence were 0-38
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that
* No 4yo like DESERT PHANTOM won absent a month
* None of the 57 winners came from 7f or further
* LUCKY NUMBERS is hard to fancy coming from 8f
* Not with a career high mark and no wins above Class 4
* SOLEMN is exposed and lost by 10 + lengths last time
* Only 1 of the 57 winners did that
* That horse had Group 2 class form and didnt run recently
* SOLEMN lacks that and looks weak on a career high mark
* He has never won out of a Class 4 race yet
* MEDICI TIME is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has no pattern class form before
* Horses with that profile were 3-40
* All 3 winners had more runs that season than he has
* MEDICI TIME is also on a tough handicap mark
* He is 8lbs higher than his best previous winning rating
* He is unplaced in his 5 races beyond a Class 4 race
* He will need a career best to win this
* CONFESSIONAL is from a 3yo handicap with 16 runs
* Horses from 3yo handicaps with 9 + runs were 2-45
* Both winners had Group Class form before
* CONFESSIONAL lacks that
* Both winners came from Class 3 handicaps
* Those like CONFESSIONAL from Class 2 races were 0-18
* CONFESSIONAL is not close enough to any winners
* HAAJES is an exposed 6 year old from a 5f race
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race
* Horses like that without a run in 7 days were 1-30
* Its no more than an average profile
* HAAJES has ran in 12 Class 2 races and unplaced 12 times
* On a Career high mark there are some worries there
POSSIBLES
* PISCEAN is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has listed class form but no Group class form
* There were 5 winners with that profile
* Males like him beaten 6 + lengths last time were 1-12
* That winner had an absence but he isnt too far away
* PISCEAN will probably find something to beat him
* Statistically there are worse profiles and he looks a possible
* It worries me he is 0-19 in fields of 13 or more though
* REIGNIER is 3 and has been absent 63 days
* There were 2 winners aged 3 absent over a Month
* These had slightly fewer runs but he has 9 and thats ok
* Both winners had 3 runs that season as he does
* Neither came from a Group race as he did last time
* Neither were beaten as far as he was last time
* COURAGEOUS is 4 and absent a month
* We know no 4 year old won with that absence
* He only just fails it though and I’d overlook that
* He does have his first run for Dandy Nicholls today
* There would be a slight added risk because of that
SELECTION
* STRIKE UP THE BAND may be ready to win again
* He was 3rd in this race last year
* Last year he faced a difficult 51 day absence
* This year he ran just 5 days ago
* Last year he ran off a rating of 100
* This year he runs only off 87
* STRIKE UP THE BAND carries 8lbs less weight as well
* STRIKE UP THE BAND has a great chance in my view
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THIRSK 2.55
Hambleton Cup Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f
5/2 Green Lightning, 7/2 George Adamson, 9/2 Lady Luachmhar
13/2 Ethics Girl, 8/1 Brouhaha, 8/1 River Ardeche
10/1 Snow Dancer, 12/1 Kames Park.
This is a 12f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. There are 391
similar races at this time of year. I think its worth looking for an alternative each way to GREEN LIGHTNING. There are 4 options for me. None have outstanding profiles but it’s probably worth trying to find one to beat him. The problem I have with GREEN LIGHTNING is his 2f drop in distance.
* Horses from 3yo Handicaps over 14f struggled
* Those with 4 or more career starts were 2-48
* Those with under 6 runs that season were 0-26
* GREEN LIGHTNING only has 4 starts
* Those beaten more than 10 lengths last time were 0-28
* GREEN LIGHTNING also fails that
I just think GREEN LIGHTNING falls a bit short of what is
required. I didnt like BROUHAHA as I could not match him
with an absence and a poor last run. ETHICS GIRL may just
want more runs and KAMES PARK didnt achieve enough on
his last run. I think there are 4 possible choices in this race. I felt GEORGE ADAMSON lacked a bit of backclass leaving him a litle unsafe. LADY LUACHMHAR is a 4yo filly down from a 2m race. I found 2 similar winners but neither had less than 13 career starts and she has 9 runs so again she is a little unsafe. RIVER ARDECHE is shortlistable but I’d have liked a bit better last run. SNOW DANCER is also worth considering. I felt one of these 4 each way was the sensible bet and given the choice I just prefered RIVER ARDECHE each way at 16/1.
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HAYDOCK 3.05
betfred Kingspin Old Borough Cup (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f
5/1 Kansai Spirit, 13/2 Lady Eclair, 13/2 Red Cadeaux
12/1 Chilly Filly, 12/1 Recession Proof, 14/1 Ajaan
14/1 Braveheart Move, Rangefinder, 14/1 Woolfall Treasure
16/1 Becausewecan, 16/1 Cotillion, 20/1 Crackentorp
20/1 Moon Indigo, 20/1 Perfect Shot, 20/1 Porgy
33/1 Shipmaster, 40/1 Macarthur.
* The Old Borough Cup is a 14f Handicsap
* There are 10 renewals of this race
* It has been upgraded in status over the years
* I’m looking at the 10 past renewals
* I’m also looking at 35 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* Looking at the angles in this race they are as follows
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-55 record
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-29
* Horses aged 6 or more were 0-36
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-64)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-69)
* Every past winner was a Male horse
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more (0-40)
* No winners came from 11f or shorter
* This leaves a shortlist of 2 runners
* RED CADEAUX – KANSAI SPIRIT
There are 35 similar races at this time of year. None of them were as old as SHIPMASTER or absent as long. There were 4 winners aged 6 or more. They all had at least 4 runs that year and AJAAN looks weak with just 2 runs this year. All horses his age that won also had much less weight. RANGEFINDER is also a 6 year old. He only won a Class 4 handicap last time and no winner his age won any handicap last time over 14f or 16f and I see him unsafe on a career high mark coming from a 0-80 race to a 0-100 contest. We know exposed horses are 0-57 record in this race. In 35 similar races they had a 4-153 record. Those from 12f or shorter were 0-59 and it puts me off MACARTHUR who was also beaten too far last time. I’m worried about BECAUSEWECAN as he is a 4yo and exposed and in all similar races these types are 0-20. The few exposed
horses that won these races all had light seasons. Those with 7 or more runs that year were 0-52 and BECAUSEWECAN
fails that. WOOLFALL TREASURE also fails that and does
not make any appeal as another exposed horse on a career
high mark. I would oppose PORGY coming from a 10f race.
BRAVEHEART MOVE is also rejected coming from 10f too.
I dont like the record of fillies. None have won this race and No filly like LADY ECLAIR won last time. She is a 4yo filly and so far all 23 of those have been beaten in these 35 races. CHILLY FILLY is also a 4yo filly (0-23) and she comes from a 12f race and the only fillies to do that had Listed and Group class form and she does not. RECESSION PROOF has got too long an absence and looks underraced. MOON INDIGO comes from a Group 2 race. None of the 35 winners had ever run in a Group 1-2 race before never mind come from one. None of the 35 winners came from Group races unless they were 3 year olds and MOON INDIGO looks unsafe with 2 runs this season. Horses coming from 12f races with 9 or more career starts are 3-172 a miserable record. CRACKENTORP fails that and his last run was not good enough and no winners were similar to him. In the 35 renewals there were only 3 winners that hadn’t run in at least a Class 2 race before and they were all 3 year
olds. No older horse aged 4 or more failed to have run beyond a Class 3 race before telling me COTILLION lacks backclass to win this. Horses aged 4 with 13 or more career starts had a 2-100 record. PERFECT SHOT fails that. He has 3 career wins and horses in that 2-100 record with more than 2 wins were 0-67. I see PERFECT SHOT as unsafe and not for me.
I had 2 horses shortlisted on my Old Borough stats. I was left with RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT. I had a look at
KANSAI SPIRIT as a 4 year old with 7-12 runs and 1-2-3-4
runs that year. There were 3 winners but they all came from
better class races. I think he lacks backclass. If you look at all horses aged 4 or older that had never run in a Class 2 race or better before there is a 0-22 record and I just felt that he lacked backclass. You have to accept he could be improving fast but because of the superior backclass he has I would see RED CADEAUX as better statistically. His problem may be the drying ground. It will help his stamina but he likes softer ground and thats the main issue with RED CADEAUX. This is always a track that is well watered though. He is my choice
SELECTION – RED CADEAUX
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HAYDOCK 3.35
betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f
7/4 Starspangledbanner, 9/2 Regal Parade, 9/1 Kingsgate Native 9/1 Markab, 10/1 Lady Of The Desert, 12/1 Borderlescott 16/1 Rainfall, 20/1 Doncaster Rover, 20/1 Genki 20/1 Prime Defender, 40/1 Our Jonathan, 50/1 Barney Mcgrew 50/1 Serious Attitude, 66/1 Sir Gerry, 100/1 Iver Bridge Lad 200/1 Fullandby
The betfred Sprint Cup has never been a great race for strong angles despite a long history. I looked at the last 20 renewals of this race. None of them were 3yo fillies so I would oppose RAINFALL who is less experienced than any past winner and LADY OF THE DESERT who has the added problem in going down from an 8f race. Go back to 1966 in this race and only 1 winner was aged 7 or more. No winners since 1966 were aged 8 like BORDERLESCOTT and MARKAB is also older than ideal and has a bit to prove anyway. DONCASTER ROVER has the bridge from Listed Class to Group 1 to overcome something I dont think he will manage. Only 3 winners have won this race without Past Group 1 form and they all had under 13 runs and I think that suggests he will lack the class. The issue with those horses from 5f races is simple. There were 5 winners and they
all came from the Nunthorpe like STARSPANGLEDBANNER
and KINGSGATE NATIVE. The better record comes from 4
year olds like STARSPANGLEDBANNER. It’s also interesting
every horse coming from the Nunthrope were beaten less than 4 lengths last time out. STARSPANGLEDBANNER managed
that but KINGSGATE NATIVE was beaten 5.5 lengths so just
marginally fails that angle. The issue with REGAL PARADE
is no past winner as old as him dropped in distance so I can’t match him to any past winner well enough. Statistically I see STARSPANGLEDBANNER as having the best chance but it’s a tight call and I dont see his price any bigger than it should be and at the prices I prefer KINGSGATE NATIVE. His profile is ony wrong as he lost by a little further in the Nunthorpe than ideal but that was a joke race where they went off far too hard and it was a false pace and KINGSGATE NATIVE had a weak profile that day and a bad draw. He looks the best value here.
Selection – KINGSGATE NATIVE Each Way 8/1 +
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THIRSK 4.40
See You Next Year Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 6f
5/1 Divertimenti, 11/2 Select Committee, 6/1 Avontuur
6/1 Rainy Night, 8/1 Mullglen, 8/1 Foreign Rhythm
10/1 Cross of Lorraine, 10/1 Secret City, 14/1 Pearly Wey
16/1 Dispol Grand, 16/1 Sea Rover, 20/1 Avertuoso
33/1 The Happy Hammer
This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses. There has been 406 similar races at this time of year. It looks open and not an easy race. I wasnt keen on DIVERTIMENTI. I looked at all exposed horses like him that had just won a 6f handicap but did not run within 2 weeks. There were 3 winners doing that but none were like him. None were aged 6 or more and the 3 horses that did it all had form in a Class 2 race before and he has never been out of a Class 4 race before and that’s left me doubting his chance of following up. PEARLY WEY doesnt come out well not doing enough last time out. I dont see a great case for CROSS OF LORRAINE. All similar types that went up in distance all had more backclass and that does hurt his profile and the booking of Paul Hanagan is probably shortening his price. On his profile there are doubts. Another 5f trip jumper DISPOL GRAND didnt do enough last time. I see SEA ROVER underraced this year coming from a 5f race. I see AVERTUOSO as opposable. There are 5 horses that I’d
have to argue are “Possibles” and one selection.
POSSIBLES
AVONTUUR – 1 similar winner but badly treated
FOREIGN RHYTHM – Mare from 5f. I’d prefer recent run
RAINY NIGHT – Shortlistable but not quite right
MULLGLEN – I’d have liked less weight but chances
SECRET CITY – Would be much better with a recent run
SELECTION
SELECT COMMITTEE would be a Positive for me. It would
not worry me he hasnt won at 6f before. It wouldnt worry me he comes from a 5f race either because he has a recent run and is well raced and fit. This trip could be what he has needed for sometime now and I dont see many better profiles.
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HAYDOCK 4.45
betfred.com Stakes (Registered As The Ascendant Stakes)
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 1m30y
4/6 Measuring Time, 4/1 Robin Hood, 6/1 Sonning Rose
12/1 Rhythm Of Light, 20/1 Claret´n´blue, 20/1 Singapore Lilly.
This is a Listed class race for 2 year olds over a Mile. It has had just 1 year’s history so I have looked at the 24 races like this at all tracks. These 24 races show horses that had just 1 career start had a 0-19 record so RHYTHM OF LIGHT and CLARET´N´BLUE look underraced. Horses that came from Nurseries have a 0-18 record so SINGAPORE LILLY looks a horse to avoid. These would be my negatives. I think the other runners will provide the winner. ROBIN HOOD looks impossible to rate coming from Ireland but few past winners were beaten far last time and he was. Without any doubt the best profile belongs to favourite MEASURING TIME.
* Horses coming from the Solario Stakes last time
* Finishing 2nd or 3rd last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 4-5 record
* They finished W W W 2 W
* MEASURING TIME has that profile and looks best
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W O L V E R H A M P T O N
Not bothering with the Wolverhampton card as the earlier
racing has taken up a bit too much time and I did not fancy much at all there. There is a quick statistic in the opening race at 5.50pm that I want to mention and see how it does.
* August-September have 315 maidens for 2yo’s at less than 6f
* Horses that started 66/1 or more last time out were 0-221
The favourite in this 5.50pm race is PLUME DE MA TANTE
and she started 66/1 only 10 days ago in a Catterick Race. The conidence behind her must have been slim. Yes she ran well in 2nd that day but on a tricky track and she comes out after just 10 days and starts favourite against many possible winners. My interest will be in watching how PLUME DE MA TANTE gets on and seeing if She overcomes the 0-221 statistic in this race. Its an obscure stat admittedly but it’s still 0-221 and because of that I predict she will lose.
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Posted under horse racing tips
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 4, 2010
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