If you like a Grand National horse don’t let me or my angles talk you out of it.
I don’t feel this is an easy race this year and I’m hopeful rather than confident.
You get just the one chance a year to bet the winner so don’t let me cost you the winner.

My Grand National selection (s) are these

HELLO BUD 50/1
NICHE MARKET 22/1

AINTREE 4.15

John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+)  4m4f

Forecast Odds

9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 12/1 Mon Mome, 12/1 The Package
16/1 Arbor Supreme, 16/1 Black Apalachi, 16/1 Character Building 16/1 Niche Market,
16/1 Snowy Morning, 16/1 State Of Play 16/1 Tricky Trickster, 20/1 Backstage,
20/1 Comply Or Die 20/1 Don´t Push It, 25/1 Vic Venturi, 28/1 Irish Raptor 28/1
King Johns Castle, 33/1 Ballyholland, 33/1 Can´t Buy Time 33/1 Maljimar, 33/1 My Will,
40/1 Cloudy Lane, Dream Alliance 40/1 Eric´s Charm, 40/1 Hello Bud, 50/1 Ballyfitz, 50/1
Cerium 50/1 Madison Du Berlais, 66/1 Flintoff, Nozic, Palypso De Creek 66/1 Royal Rosa,
100/1 Beat The Boys, 100/1 Conna Castle 100/1 Ellerslie George, 100/1 Joe Lively,
100/1 Ollie Magern 100/1 Piraya, 100/1 Preists Leap, 150/1 Made In Taipan 150/1 Pablo Du Charmil.

The Grand National is never easy but never as hard as
is often portrayed and not everything can win the race
as the old cliche goes. The ground could play a bigger
part this year as its drying out.
I think this years race has an unusual frame to it with no horses carrying less than 10st 5lbs
and 19 runners having 11st or more.
The stats that suggest horses don’t win with over 11st has never been more vulnerable as it is this year.

Not planning to have a huge preview of the race but very keen to get it right this year and I’m turning a blind eye to some stats.

My favourite Grand National statistic that applies to all
similar races in the first half of the year is as follows.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 16 Grand Nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals
* Exposed horses struggle with under 5 runs that season
* They have a 2-337 record in these races
* They were 0-144 in this race
* In all races at 4m and more they were just 1-293

I would strongly avoid all horses that are exposed and
lightly raced this season with under 5 runs. This is why
I would make the following horses negatives.

Madison Du Berlais – Black Apalachi – Don’t Push It
Comply Or Die – Dream Alliance – Character Building
Pablo Du Charmil – State of Play – Cloudy Lane – My Will
Eric’s Charm – King Johns Castle -  Maljimar – Irish Raptor -Flintoff- Cerium – Royal Rosa. NOZIC is also short of runs.

It is a well known fact that the last 7 year old winner of
this race was back in 1940 and I couldnt have any horse
that age. In addition to those already opposed above I
would add TRICKY TRICKSTER who is actually only 6
years and 10 months old foaled in June 2003. Others aged
7 to be rejected are THE PACKAGE who has fewer races
over fences than all recent winners. PALYPSO DE CREEK
and PIRAYA are both out as 7 year olds.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more

If you look my sample size of 65 races discussed earlier that covers every similar race to this as well
as this one they also show that you have to have been at least 1st  2nd or 3rd in a recent race.
In fact All 65 winners had managed to be placed 1-2-3 in their last six runs.
This should rule out all the out of form horses in the doldrums showing no recent promise.
It’s a trend  PREISTS LEAP fails. BIG FELLA THANKS deserves  massive credit for
finishing 6th last year as a 7 year old. This year he is 8 although not quite 8 for a
few more weeks yet as he was foaled late. I don’t like that about him. I hate the fact
he has just 3 runs this year and did not finish in one of those races.
I think coming from 2m 4f also hurts a horse as young as him and he has far too many
holes in his profile at a short enough price. CAN´T BUY TIME has a similar problem
age 8 and having to step up from 2m 4f with just 3 runs this season.
I can not find any similar horse winning in the 65 races.
The record of certain horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter is awful. MADE IN TAIPAN makes no appeal doing this. Neither does
BALLYHOLLAND coming from a 17f Chase and opposed for
that reason and because he has not won over 3 Miles before
something every winner since 1988 had done. BACKSTAGE
is also 8 years old and up from a 2m 4f race and I couldn’t get a similar winner to
him and he looks on the inexperienced side as well. CONNA CASTLE is out
exposed and up significantly in distance. Exposed horses that come from chases
over 2m 6f or shorter had a 0-66 record in the 69 races.
Thats one of the reasons why I am not convinced about  SNOWY MORNING.
OLLIE MAGERN looks wrong and impossible to fancy.
I feel JOE LIVELY has far too much weight for an exposed 11yo.
It’s  unheard of for an exposed horse like ELLERSLIE GEORGE  to  win without
Graded form. BEAT THE BOYS fails many angles. BALLYFITZ doesnt have a bad profile
although he doesn’t  jump well enough and I would not be confident he would get  round.
I hate the fact he has only won Novice Chases and he also comes from a hurdle race.

POSSIBLES

VIC VENTURA has to be considered. I think he has quite a
stiff handicap mark courtesy of being so consistent. I think  his rating and handicap mark hurt him.
Statistically having won 3 races this season he wouldn’t be like many winners  and coming from a
small field graded chase doesnt impress  me. My gut feeling is that although interesting in terms of
class and his 5-6 runs this season the price he is paying for 3 wins this season may be too high
and his weight may just  be the undoing of him.

ARBOUR SUPREME has factors I don’t like. If you look at
the 65 similar races that include the last 16 renewals of this race. Horses with 13 + career starts
absent over a month like ARBOUR SUPREME won 18 of the 65 races.
Those under 10 years old were 6-174. ARBOUR SUPREME is only aged
8 and that 6-174 record applies to all horses under 10.
Those without form in Grade 1 races like him were just 1-89.
None of them came from short of 3 Miles as he does.
He’s not the best age. Having 4 runs this year is no advantage.
Neither is stepping up from 2m 6f.
Combine all those factors and as a horse with no Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
I think a combination of all of them might prove too much for him.

MON MOME won this by 12 lengths last year carrying 11st.
He has 11st 7lbs this year. His weight was always going to
be his big problem. That said he’d have won the race last year with 7lbs
more weight and many past winners were clobbered more than he has been.
In a year I personally wouldnt listen to negative weight statistics much I’d give
him a better chance than many and I would have him as 3rd-4th-5th pick in the race.

SHORTLIST

NICHE MARKET -  HELLO BUD

I don’t much like exposed 12 year olds like HELLO BUD but
what few winners there were like her had similar credentials to him and I can ot rule him out at 50/1.
NICHE MARKET  has a good profile. He prepped really well at Cheltenham when he was wrong statistically.
I would have liked more wins and some form left handed but he has a fair chance.

SELECTION

NICHE MARKET 25/1
HELLO BUD 50/1

Blog comment : prices dropped a touch from the above which was given to full members earlier

Hello Bud now 40/1 Coral VC Ladbrokes CanBet or 48/1 Betfair

Niche Market now 20/1 sjames VC bet365  or 23/1 Betfair

Posted under Major Horse Races

I have full analysis for most Cheltenham races today for full members

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

One race today for the free blog.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

5/1 Bensalem, 11/2 The Package, 10/1 Character Building
10/1 Theatrical Moment, 12/1 Exmoor Ranger, 12/1 Ogee
14/1 The Tother One, 16/1 Casey Jones, 16/1 Niche Market
16/1 Razor Royale, 20/1 Kicks For Free, 20/1 Nenuphar Collonges
25/1 New Alco, 25/1 Officier De Reserve, 28/1 Chief Dan George 33/1
Beat The Boys, 33/1 Joe Lively, 33/1 Offshore Account 33/1 Tatenen,
50/1 Comply Or Die, 50/1 Knowhere 66/1 Bible Lord, 66/1 Stan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The ante post chatter in this race has been dominated by
two seemingly well handicapped horses in BENSALEM
and THE PACKAGE dominating the front of the market.

* THE PACKAGE has been saved for this race
* He has not run for 95 days to protect his handicap mark
* Personally I am happy to accept he is well handicapped
* I dont think its as obvious as many think though
* The issue for me is will he defy an absence of 95 days
* Statistically I would have to say no for these reasons
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance – hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those like THE PACKAGE with 13 + runs
* There were 8 winners that did that
* None were aged 6 or 7 as THE PACKAGE is
* What I did find was the 8 winners had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* 7 of the 8 winners had Grade 1 form and all 8 had Grade 1-2
* THE PACKAGE has not got that
* Therefore no horse like him won a handicap with that break
* None with 13 + runs won absent 80 + days
* Not without a run in Grade 2 or better and he doesnt
* Thats what puts me off THE PACKAGE in this race

* BENSALEM is light on experience with 4 Chase starts
* He fell in one of those but last years winner did 3 chase runs
* I think you can overlook that because of last years winner
* That said last years winner had the ride of the season
* He looked easily beaten before a brilliant ride won it
* I dont mind that he has no handicap form
* His Jumping is the main problem though
* He makes several mistakes and isnt a fluent jumper
* He has never run in a Chase with more than 5 runners either
* BENSALEM has not raced on ground as fast as this
* His chance depends on how well he jumps
* Especially in a big field on ground thats not very soft
* I see risks in THE PACKAGE and BENSALEM
* I think I would rather bet BENSALEM of the pair
* I see BENSALEM as a Saver bet

* NICHE MARKET is pretty exposed with 17 chase starts
* That would worry me about a horse with 11st 6lbs
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He isnt like any past winner that had a large weight
* He comes from a Grade 2 Chase last time out
* All 28 horses doing that in this race lost
* Its not a good preparation for a handicap here
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the festival since 1993
* Thats every Handicap over any distance
* Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases were poor
* Those with 10st 11lbs or more had a 1-135 record
* That horse was far less exposed and much younger
* This has never really been his track
* He has run well here before but both wins were right handed
* He could also have Aintree in mind rather than today
* I think he has an unimpressive profile

* THEATRICAL MOMENT has 4 Chase starts
* He has a nasty 78 day absence though
* It strikes me that if you want a horse with 4 chase starts
* Wouldnt you rather have Bensalem ?
* He has a much more recent run
* He has Graded form and THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt
* He is only carrying 1lbs more weight
* That tells me THEATRICAL MOMENT has a bit to do
* Bought for good money by Jonjo O’Neil
* Improved since a Breathing operation
* His chance in perspective to Bensalem does put me off
* I gave an interesting stat when looking at The Package
* No Cheltenham Handicap of any kind went to this type
* Absence of 80 + days – 13 + carrer starts – No Grade 1/2 form
* Thats any of Cheltenhams 132 handicaps since 1993
* THEATRICAL MOMENT only just scraped through that stat
* Had he been absent a further 4 days he would have failed it
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more in this race have won
* However they all had form in a Grade 1 race before
* THEATRICAL MOMENT hasnt ran in any Graded race
* He is light on chasing experience with 4 runs
* There was a winner from a Novice Chase with no Graded form
* That was Fork Lightening (2004) but he had a recent run
* THEATRICAL MOMENT doesnt come out good enough

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE isnt out of this statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles than he has
* My biggest problem with him is the track
* I think he is best on a Flatter track
* I think the Scottish National is a better option

* RAZOR ROYALE won the Racing Post Chase last time
* He had a hard race last doing that 17 days ago
* That said two past winners were 1st and 2nd in that race
* They both won this. Malborough was the same age in 2000
* He did have a lot less weight though
* Statistically there’s no reason why he shouldnt do the double
* His weight of 11st 3lbs is higher than ideal
* The last 10 winners and 14 of the last 16 had less weight
* He has also been on the go since September
* Very few past winners ran as early in the year as that
* He has more runs this year than most winners
* There are some concerns and it wont be easy for him

* OGEE has 4 chase runs and is a little inexperienced
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 2 past winners came from a Novice Chase
* They were both 8 year olds and he is a 7yo
* I looked at 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* Those with 10st 9lbs or less were 0-5
* They did have a second in 2000 but he had more experience
* I can’t match OGEE perfectly but it’s not a bad profile
* I think there has to be a worry about the track
* He has lots of form on sharp tracks and flat tracks
* He goes well left handed and has run well on other tracks
* It would be a worry but its far from certain to be a problem
* Its also interesting very few winners had Flat careers

I will be amazed if CHARACTER BUILDING can win this
race with just 1 run this season and a career high mark. I
would not want him at twice his price. COMPLY OR DIE
is rejected for the similar reasons. THE TOTHER ONE is
also rejected. I could not have any horse with 11st 12lbs
absent 78 days. I looked at all the handicaps run at this
festival since 1993 and no horse had been absent  more
than 7 weeks with 11st10lbs or more and he should have
too much to do. I looked at every handicap Chase run at
the Festival before at any distance. There were very few
seasonal debutants win. None were aged 8 (0-48) and
None did it without Grade 1 or Grade 2 form before so
OFFICIER DE RESERVE has to go. No horse has won
any handicap chase absent like NEW ALCO over two
seasons and he is being aimed at the National.

OLLIE MAGERN isnt up to this now. STAN has poor
recent form and a miserable preparation. BIBLE LORD
hates big fields and isnt fanciable. KNOWHERE looks
vulnerable now he takes on younger horses after his
Veterans Chase run. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT has not
been the same horse since Injury forced him to have
a long break and he has not done much since and he
looks a horse aimed at the Aintree Grand National.

BEAT THE BOYS has been off 95 days and as he is
also lacking Grade 1 form and has 13 or more career
runs he is another horse like The Package that fails
the statistic showing no horse has won a Handicap
at the festival before absent that long like him. I am
against JOE LIVELY too old for his weight and with
the wrong type of preparation. I wouldnt want a 6yo
like TATENEN and he doesnt look right at all.

* CASEY JONES problem is his weight of 11st 5lbs
* There were 2 winners that had 11st 3lbs or more
* Both had 5 or more runs this year and a recent run
* CASEY JONES has just 2 runs and a long absence
* No winner like him came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* I think his weight and absence really hurt him
* There is evidence this may not be his track

STRONG PROFILES

* NENUPHAR COLLONGES is worth considering
* He is a previous Festival winner
* I shortlisted him in the Hennessy last time
* I shortlisted him in this race last year
* He was beaten less than a length in this race last year
* He has got an absence of 108 days
* That said he has won fresh before
* On his profile he is interesting
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks
* Previous run in a Grade 1 race
* 2-3-4 runs this season
* 13 or more career starts
* Weight of no more than 10st 11lbs
* Horses in this race with that profile were 2-5
* Joes Edge (2007) had that profile
* Wichita Lineman (2009) also had that profile
* I would have liked a more recent run
* I would have liked a better last run
* Easy to see he is second string behind Bensalem
* That said I think he has a fair chance in this
* I think he has a much better profile than it looks

* EXMOOR RANGER is a Positive
* Unexposed 8 year olds like did excellently
* When 1-2-3 last time over 3m or more
* When not beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* When having 3-4-5 runs that year
* These horses had a 5-13 record
* The problem with him is his weight
* All 5 winners in the 5-13 record had 10st 9lbs or less
* Those like him with 11st or more were 0-2
* I am not too disheartened about that
* 1 of them came second and the other had a slipped saddle
* EXMOOR RANGER is a horse I feel positive about
* If I could change 1 think I’d give him 5lbs less weight
* I Would have liked more track form as well

* KICKS FOR FREE is reasonable statistically
* Two runs this year and an absence doesnt worry me
* He has Grade 1 Class which is important
* He is at his best when Fresh
* 2 past winners had the same profile as he does
* He is still lightly raced over Chases and could improve
* He has placed at two festivals before over hurdles
* He has been rejected by Ruby Walsh which is an issue
* I still give him a good chance in this race

SELECTION

NENUPHAR COLLONGES each way 22/1 Ladbrokes s james VC

KICKS FOR FREE each way 25/1 Ladbrokes bet365 VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS – CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection – CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 CanBet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM TUESDAY 2.40

William Hill TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

6/1 Wichita Lineman, 8/1 Possol, 10/1 Millenium Royal, 10/1 Patsy Hall, 10/1 Star De Mohaison, 11/1 Cailin Alainn, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 16/1 Maljimar, 16/1 Nenuphar Collonges, 20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 Golden Flight,  Simon, 20/1 Tot O’ Whiskey, 25/1 Wind Instrument, 33/1 Comply Or Die, 33/1 Hobbs Hill, 33/1 Lacdoudal, 33/1 Oedipe, 33/1 Reveillez, 33/1 The Sawyer, 40/1 Ollie Magern, Hot Weld, 66/1 Billyvoddan, Fundamentalist.

The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase. The
worst news for me was According To John missing it as
I had him lined up as an account bet. There are trends in
this race I see as relevant. I want to oppose  all exposed
horses that have just one run this season. None won this
race and in fact no exposed horse won a handicap chase
at the Cheltenham Festival with just one run that season
anytime in the last few years. Thats an interesting stat as
none were second either and I see thse horses as unlikely
to be fit enough to win. No past winners of this race had
one run that season either regardless of how exposed they
were. LOTHIAN FALCON has to be opposed because of
that. So to does HOT WELD. It is not time effective to
write essays about what trends horses at 50/1 and over

fail so I will just say that I cant see a case for any of the rank outsiders in this race and I am eliminating them all from consideration. GOLDEN FLIGHT is out with two
seasons absence as he’s also exposed. There’s not enough
about SIMON I like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I want to take on STAR DE MOHAISON with 11st 12lbs.
There’s been 65 handicap chases at the festival in recent
years over every and any distance and only 3 winners had
11st 8lbs or more in a weak 3-125 record. Of those all 56
horses that came from Graded races lost and that doesn’t
bode well for  STAR DE MOHAISON. I have looked at
every English horse that has run in a Handicap Chase at
this Festival. There has not been one race that went to a
horse with only 1 run that season when having a break of
over a month. Because of that I am against MALJIMAR
with 1 run this season and a 115 day break. I dont have
a huge problem statistically with DEAR VILLEZ but his
weight and a few other small issues put me off him.

My problem with CAILIN ALAINN is that he has 2 runs
at Cheltenham and Fell both times much as they were in
top class races. He only has 1 past run in a competetive
handicap and he pulled up in that and none of the past
winners came here from any Graded Chase that wasnt a
handicap.

NOVICE CHASERS

Horses that come from Novice Chases are always interesting
much as only one past winner did that. There are a few here
that do that. One statistic that interested me is that since 1992 Cheltenham has had 69 Handicap Chases run at this festival. In these 69 races no horse got beaten in a Novice Chase and came out and won a handicap chase. There has only been one Handicap Hurdle at this festival go to a horse beaten in a Novice Hurdle as well which supports the stat a little bit. I dont want a horse beaten in a Novice Chase so I am ignoring  WIND INSTRUMENT who doesnt look the
type equipped with the tools you would want for a race like this. TOT O´WHISKEY also fails that and its a shame as I gave TOT O´WHISKEY a chance off his low weight and I
feel he will run very well and place in the race. I dont want to make him my selection because of that trends but I am happy to make him my selection. MILLENIUM ROYAL
also comes from a Novice with just 5 chase starts but he
won that chase so is fine. He has no handicap experience
and although I am relaxed about that he has to do all that
carrying a weight no horse has carried in years. I also feel MILLENIUM ROYAL may have problems on the track.
He has not run here over fences but his hurdle runs were
below par and I dont see him as a Cheltenham horse. The
other Novice Chaser is WICHITA LINEMAN. He won a Novice Chase last time so passes the trend. The problem he has is that he has just 3 chase starts. You can argue its very inexperienced for a race like this and it is but he is
also well handicapped today and faces a weak renewal for
me. I think you have to shortlist him as there is a general
weakness throughout this whole field

SHORTLIST

POSSOL 9/1
NENUPHAR COLLONGES 20/1
WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1

POSSOL is trying to emulate Antonin who was the last 6 year
old winner and who like POSSOL came from the Racing Post
Chase at Kempton. POSSOL doesnt have the experience that
Antonin has but he has more chase runs than a lot of  the past winners and he is not out of this. Soft ground wouldnt be ideal though but I dont think its that soft today and his chance will be about whether he as a six year old can recover quickly enough from the Racing Post Chase just 17 days ago. I would rather not have a 6 year old but I have looked at all 6 year olds to win here
in handicap chases and he is a similar type to these.

NENUPHAR COLLONGES looks to have a lot to like about him
and he isnt to dissimilar from the 2005 winner but I would have prefered Cheltenham form.

PATSY HALL has to be a big runner as he was 4th in this race last year and is now significantly lower in the weights and also has the benefit of two extra prep runs and you can be sure he hasnt been fancied yet this season. He is a bit of an Underachiever but I feel he has enough to get him on the shortlist

SELECTION

WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1 – Win Bet  ( NOW BEST PRICED AT 13/2 CentreBet
TOT O’WHISKEY – Place Bet around 5/1 ( GO TO Betfair )

I could look at this race for weeks but I would never have found a better profile than According To John but he has missed the race now and there is nothing we can do about that. I want a place bet in the race on TOT O’WHISKEY as I feel off 10st 3lbs I couldnt name 4 horses to beat him and feel he may nick a place at 5/1

WICHITA LINEMAN is my selection. I am worried about his
3 chase runs but several have been lightly raced before winning this and his handicap mark sways me. He is a festival winner and a high class hurdler rated 156 and off 142 I feel he can win this off 142. If you assume I am right about the Topweight and also right about Millenium Royal – and if you take out the no hopers in the race this is only a 0-146 handicap chase and far weaker than usual. I know the horse doesnt impress everyone and many will see him as a bad favourite today with 3 runs but I dont see
this as as competetive as it usually is and I think he can win.

Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1  Blue Squareuareuare

CentreBet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Posted under horse racing tips