Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,
12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,
16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History
Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1
Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION - SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses
* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race
* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere
* Taking the Nottingham race first
* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70
* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36
* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more
* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)
* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May
* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record
* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)
* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)
* MOLLY TWO fails those trends
* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races
* None had under 3 runs this season though
* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome
* All winning fillies had more backclass than her
* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence
* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win
* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July
* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness
* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break
* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence
* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116
* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost
* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others
dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT
as a big priced runner but the way this should map
out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and
very well handicapped runner should make all and
run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any
horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1
* She was 4th in this race last year
* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats
* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION - SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair
Silver Prelude is 11/4 with bet365 - betfred - Blue Squareuare
Silver Prelude is 5/2 with Tote - VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Beverley 2.00

WICKED WILMA 9/1 +

If you want a saver in the race I would suggest Whozart. You may remember
I went with Wicked Wilma last time but didnt make her a Full Bet as she had
a dodgy draw. She ran well just behind Whozart and I left that race convinced
she would win soon. I want to make her a selection today as I feel I can find
several reasons why her opponents will not win this. She is drawn 15 and that
could be an advantage or disadvantage. We just do not know based on evidence
at Beverley this year. If low numbers are favoured then she will struggle like
the other fancied high numbers. If high numbers are favoured we are in business.

BEVERLEY 2:00 FIONA’S SIGNIFICANT BIRTHDAY HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Dubai To Barnsley, Monte Major, Myriola, 6/1 Whozart, 7/1 Mormeatmic,
10/1 Missus Molly Brown, 14/1 Gelert, 16/1 Morristown Music, Wicked Wilma,
20/1 Head To Head, Miss Taboo, 25/1 Captain Turbot, Fan Club, The Cube,
33/1 Sunley Sovereign, 50/1 Height Of Esteem

This is a 5f handicap for 0-50 rated horses. Its an outrageously hard race and it will
not be easy to get the winner but the reason I preview it is WICKED WILMA who
was my selection the other day. I almost made her an account bet but I just prefered
Superior Star that day who won thankfully and because the draw put me off her. I
am adamant that WICKED WILMA will win soon and although I initially put a Line
through this race I looked at the first few in the market and found good reasons to
oppose them all and as she is a really tasty price I decided to go with WICKED WILMA.

* September has seen 95 of these 5f handicaps since 1992
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that came from 3yo handicaps over 5f last time were 1-65
* It’s a disadvantage taking on older horses and I want to oppose him
* MYRIOLA does the same thing and is also opposable
* She is too exposed for a 3 year old as well and I dont want her
* MONTE MAJOR is 0-20 on Grass and has no form on ground this bad
* I think he is from a fast ground sire and this may be a bit soft for him
* MORMEATIC only problems are the 35 day absence and middle draw
* On this ground I wouldnt want an absence like that
* You have to argue that whatever the draw advantage here its not stall 7
* I dont want MISSUS MOLLY BROWN a filly with 4 runs this year
* That doesnt look like a horse fit enough to win this
* Fillies with 5 + career star but under 5 runs that year were 1-103
* MORRISTOWN MUSIC has been absent 56 days and thats vile
* Since 1997 horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-111
* None of the 95 winners went 20 or more runs without a win
* HEAD TO HEAD has done that and only comes from sellers
* MISS TABOO also fails that and is a filly with a 0-22 record
* She only comes from maiden and looks very beatable
* CAPTAIN TURBOT comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that did that with under 9 runs that year were 1-101
* Horses from 3yo handicaps that lost by 4 + lengths also struggled
* These horses had a 0-94 record and he is hard to fancy
* FAN CLUB has a 39 day breal which is certainly no advantage
* He has also never run at 5f before and that must hurt him
* HEIGHT OF ESTEEM surely cant be fit with 2 runs since August 07
* SUNLEY SOVEREIGN surely cant be fit with 1 run since September 07
* THE CUBE has a long break and has a 0-17 career record
* I think I have offered sound reasons why these horses may lose
* The race at HAMILTON 11 Days ago interests me
* WHOZART (2nd) GELERT (3rd) WICKED WILMA (6th)
* WHOZART looks to have a very solid chance in this
* GELERT must also have a chance and is respected
* Its WICKED WILMA that I like best
* She has a usefull weight pull with both Whozart and Gelert
* I think the draw hurt her last time at Hamilton
* At Beverley before that she again had the worst draw
* She was also out of the weights in a much better race than this
* She still ran really well and wasnt knocked about once beaten
* Her previous run at Catterick was also interesting
* That was in a slightly better class 0-60 contest
* She again had the worst draw but she finished really well in 4th
* The Racing Post suggested she was one to “Take out of the race”
* Have to agree with that as she finished very fast like a knife through butter
* She sould have been a fast finishing 3rd that day
* Before that at Thirsk she stumbled early losing all chance
* That left her marooned in the middle of the track
* She was away from all the advantaged horses and it was a 0-72
* She was badly drawn before that at Ayr and hampered again
* She started the season rated 66 and is now down to 49
* She would have won at Musselburgh were it not for overweight
* WICKED WILMA is a very interesting bet today

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips