No joy with the free blog bets yesterday.
A touch unfortunate with the race we chose to post up.
It was one of multiple races covered for full members and it
was the other races where the winning selections arose.

Guy went through the Cheltenham card yesterday and highlighted the following selections

Dunguib win bet 10/11 - Lost
Menorah to beat Blackstairmountain in Match Bet 10/11 - Won
Oscar WhiSky Each Way 9/2 without the favourite  - Won

CHELTENHAM  2.05
Sizing Europe  Each Way 5/1   Won

CHELTENHAM  2.40

Split Stake Bet

Nenuphar Collonges 22/1 Lost
Kicks For Free 25/1 Lost

CHELTENHAM 3.20

Binocular 8/1 Win Bet  - Won
Solwhit 7/1  Saver Bet - Lost

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Freneys Well 33/1 Each Way
Another Jewel to beat Monkerhostin in match bet  10/11 Won

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Voler La Vedette Win Bet 2/1  Lost
No One Tells Me Place Bet 5/2  Lost

He has done a similar through the card  today for full members
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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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As per yesterday just one race on the free blog.

CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Quel Esprit, 7/2 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Finian´s Rainbow
6/1 Peddlers Cross, 10/1 Summit Meeting, 11/1 Reve De Sivola 1
6/1 Manyriverstocross, 20/1 Ghizao, 25/1 The Knoxs
33/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Some Present, 50/1 Hollo Ladies
66/1 Baily Rock, 100/1 Sleepy Hollow, 100/1 The Giant Bolster
200/1 Consulate, 200/1 Quartano.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

I think you can rule out half the field. Pointless doing
too much analysis on no hopers. Its not a race that is
likely to go to a complete outsider and never has done.
I think THE KNOXS is underraced for a 7yo and lacks
backclass. He looks to come up short.  I dont like a 5yo
like SUMMIT MEETING coming from just an ordinary
Novice Hurdle. I think GHIZAO is underraced as well
coming from a 2m race and with just 2 hurdle starts I’d
see him as vulnerable. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS does
not come out well from a 2m handicap and none of the
past winners were like him. Five look worth a mention.

* REVE DE SIVOLA is hard to judge
* His biggest problem is clearly his absence
* No horse won without having run in January -February.
* No Refuge had a similar profile in 2005
* He didnt have as long a break as this horse
* He was also much lighter raced
* Wouldnt rule him out
* There are better profiles for me

* PEDDLERS CROSS is 5 and comes from a 2m race
* I dont like that profile at all
* Since 1993 just 1 winner was 5 coming from 2m 4f or less
* The record was 1 winner from 33 that tried
* That winner was the mightly Istabraq in 1997
* I think we can safely say he is an exception to the rule
* Istabraq prepped over 18f before winning this
* No English horse aged 5 came 1st or 2nd in this from a 2m race
* He wouldnt be my choice to win this race

* RITE OF PASSAGE has looks top class
* He does have a few little issues to address
* Its unclear whether Cheltenham is his best track
* 3rd in the Bumper last year he was beaten a fair way
* He is a Flat Bred horse which is a concern
* This race usually falls to a National Hunt bred horse
* He has only ran twice over hurdles before
* 20 of the last 24 winners all had more than 2 hurdle runs

* QUEL ESPRIT ran in the Cheltenham bumper last year
* He was just behind Rites of Passage in 4th
* He has 3 hurdle runs and that makes more suitable
* His defeat last time did blot his copybook
* 3 of the last 7 winners were beaten though last time
* Statistically I think he is just better than Rites of Passage

* FINIAN´S RAINBOW is a 7 year old
* We know Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
* They have won 33 of the last 38 renewals
* The last 10 winners and runner ups were aged 5 or 6
* I am not sure thats a statistic thats relevant
* FINIAN´S RAINBOW didnt start racing until he was 6
* The only previous 7yo winner started his career late
* As he is lightly raced I dont see his age as a big issue
* I looked at 7 year olds in this race since 1993
* I Looked at those starting under 20/1
* I looked at those with Grade 1 form
* I looked at those winning last time out
* I looked at those not coming from 16f races
* There were only 2 horses aged 7 with that profile
* They finished 1st (1998) and 3rd (2006)
* That tells me there is nothing wrong with his profile

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

FINIAN’S RAINBOW 11/2

SOME PRESENT 33/1  Each Way

Interesting race. I would only want Rites of Passage
if he was strong statistically but he isnt. Quel Esprit
is slightly better but the ground could be the problem
with him and it does put me off a bit. I know horses in
this race aged 7 havent done well but I hope I have
shown that only a certain type of 7yo struggle and
horses like FINIAN’S RAINBOW are fine. I would be
having half my stake on him.

The other half of the stake is far more specualtive but
at 33/1 SOME PRESENT could be a bit overpriced. He
isnt brilliant statistically but he is 33/1 and he isnt dead my any means.
My arguments are these

* There are question marks about shorter priced horses
* He ran in the 2009 Bumper here and came second
* He was only beaten by Dunguib
* He beat Rites of Passage and Quel Esprit that day
* Since then he has a W 2 2 2 6 3 record
* Twice he has been beaten by Dunguib again
* He hasnt been well placed in his races
* He was the victim of many slow pace races
* He comes from a Grade 1 race thats a good trial
* Although beaten 13 lengths there were excuses
* He was hardly likely to beat Dunguib
* The ground was heavy that day which hurt him
* His sire has only had 2 fancied runners in this race
* They came 2nd and 4th
* He should be much better suited to faster ground
* He will appreciate the trip and the stronger pace
* There is a bit of a leap of faith but he could go well
* SOME PRESENT could run much better than expected

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Squareuare Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 5/4 at Coral Sky sportingbet

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
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Posted under horse racing tips

Thanks for positive comments received about last weekend’s 12/1 winner hardball.

Glad to see some of you reinvesting a portion of your winnings in a membership of my private service.

This free blog carries just a tiny tiny fraction of the full member advice.

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 11/2  Coral William Hill VC
Win Bet

BOLODENKA is 11/2  but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently - Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION - BOLODENKA

Posted under horse racing tips

Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION - RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb - River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

Posted under Main Content