SOUTHWELL 1.50

Toteexacta The Better Value Forecast Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  6f

5/2 Ingleby Arch, 7/2 Felday, 4/1 Esprit De Midas,
9/2 Confuchias, 6/1 Flowing Cape, 33/1 Indian Skipper.

This is a classy 6f handicap for 0-101 rated horses and we
have had 28 similar races at this time of year. Considering
the class of the race INDIAN SKIPPER shouldnt be able to
win from a seller.   GREAT CHARM  comes from a 0-75 in
Class 5 to a 0-101 in Class 2 and thats a stiff jump in class that may find him out. ESPRIT DE MIDAS has to go as a
3yo absent 200 days. No 3 year old had that absence and
none came from a 3yo handicap either. FLOWING CAPE
may not have done enough last time. Look at horses in the
28 races that were beaten 10 lengths or more last time out
you find older horses like FLOWING CAPE having a 0-43
record. I can give INGLEBY ARCH a chance but he has a
45 day absence. No horse aged 6 or more won when absent
over a month or more so statistically he does have question
marks to answer. CONFUCHIAS has one of those difficult
to read profiles and is respected but he has never run here
at Southwell. Neither has FELDAY but he has the strongest
profile for me because of the following.

* Horses from 7f Handicaps running within 7 weeks
* Finishing 1-2-3 last time out
* No Form in Group Class before
* 6 or more runs this season
* The record of all horses with that profile were 6-11
* They finished W 8 W 5 W 2 7 W 3 W W
* Horses aged 3 in that group had a 3-4 record
* FELDAY has the best profile for me

Felday now currently best priced 9/4 betfred, Ladbrokes, Sky

Posted under horse racing tips

No Firm Selections today but I have jotted down a few thoughts on
the meeting at Catterick

Best Live Odds available at the link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/today
===============================================
C  A  T  T  E  R  I  C  K

The Selling race at 2.30 looks nasty.
Statistically the problem is these races are very rare.
There has only been 5 selling races in May over 11f - 13f in the last 15 years
so we are partially blind to what it takes to win a race like this.
Throw in some really confusing profiles and much more strength in depth that
you normally see in these races and it looks hard.
I would be against the horses with absences such as EVELITH REGENT MAYADEEN and SAGUNT.
Several here look more than good enough to win a race like this.
My best guess would beTERMINATE around 7/1 as he comes here from winning
a handicap. He has a recent run. He will appreciate the drying ground and brings
form and fitness into the race. Its an open contest though and stakes would need to be low

I would have to go with DIAMOND BLADE in the maiden
at 3pm but have a saver on CAVITIE in the race. His main
market rival (Fashion Icon) is a filly that couldnt place in a seller last time.
You then have Positivity who was beaten 33 lengths just 8 days ago and surely
thats too far a defeat to overcome too soon for a filly like her who hasnt proved
she has trained on. Fifth Amendment was also hammered on his debut this year.
I dont understand why DIAMOND BLADE isnt odds on.
He looks a big price to me around 5/4 and 11/8.
He may be one of those where if he starts evens or shorter he will win but if he
drifts to a price like 7/4 that he shouldnt be then you would be quite worried.
All things being equal I feel DIAMOND BLADE looks like he only has to run his race to win.
CAVITIE could be the saver. Upgraded stables recently. Well backed at 20/1 and 25/1.
He is experienced like most of the past winners of this race were.
He drops from 6f which looks a sensible mood.
After the market move I watched him on video
and I can see why some are taking fancy prices and he could well be the biggest threat to the favourite.

I gave up on the 3.35 handicap as the angles were not there.
I wouldnt have gone with TURN ME ON taking on better
class horses.I wouldnt have gone with LADY RANGALI
as a filly first time out as no similar filly won a similar race.
I wasnt keen on SUNRISE SAFARI either exposed and up in distance.
MALCHEEL isnt for me either. I couldnt see any more half decent negatives
and didnt feel I have enough to take a strong view about the race.

VHUJON looks the best option in the 4.10 race with a 2 day
break having won on Thursday. He brings form and fitness
into the race. I wasnt convnced GRAZEON GOLD BLEND
or DIG DEEP did enough on their seasonal debuts. I dont
know whether WYATT EARP will have reached his peak
fitness either with just two runs this year for an 8 year old.
EL DECECY comes down from 10f to 6f and that looks a
horrible task. I didnt fancy MR WOLF as horses aged 8 or
more that had under 3 runs that year had a 3-155 record and
those that ran within 2 weeks were 1-80 and none lost by as
far as he did last time. With KASHIMIN absent 287 days
and JOHANNES also lacking a run I would have to go with
VHUJON. I respect BONNIE PRINCE BLUE but he has
just 1 run this year and VHUJON will be race fitter and I
see VHUJON as having the best chance. He may well be a
horse to consider in an each way double.

WINGED HARRIET looks a banker in the 6f  Maiden and
whilst she is odds on I couldnt see her losing that race.

The last race at 5.15pm is a mess.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

THIRSK 5.20

ToteSPORTBINGO.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby,
6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond,
10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* April and May have seen 138 similar races
* I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY
* She is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197
* Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record
* Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42
* Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84
* Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128
* Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58
* Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152
* HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed
* LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights
* Felt he had an unimpressive profile
* LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* The odd one won but they scored badly
* Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race
* 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries
* None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20)
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list
* I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE
* He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs
* He is also on a career high mark
* All his wins have come on the All Weather as well
* I would worry about fast ground for him as well
* RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me
* BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that
* The record was 9-167
* However none came from a Class 6 handicap
* Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66
* Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91
* That suggets thye following
* Better to be beaten far in a classier race
* Than to run well in a cheap race
* BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist

STRONG PROFILES

* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile
* I dont see anything really wrong with him
* CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile
* Placing 3rd in a much better race last time
* PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden
* The runner up has come out and won as well
* I liked his profile and he looks a big runner
* He quickened well last time out
* Last years winner came from the same maiden
* Well drawn he looks good enough to win this

SELECTION - PADDY BEAR Each Way at 100/30 betfred - s james - Tote - VC

Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

This Saturday I have a sample from the analysis section of the Full Member Service

NB This is not a full account bet

DONCASTER  3:10

ToteSPORT NOVEMBER HANDICAP (C2) (3yo+)  1m4f

5/1 Electrolyser, 11/2 Presvis, 8/1 The Betchworth Kid, 10/1 Menwaal, 12/1 First Avenue,  Magicalmysterytour, 14/1 Tastahil, 16/1 Night Crescendo, 20/1 Group Captain,  Tropical Strait,  Young Mick, 25/1 Ajaan,  Hits Only Vic,  Mull Of Dubai, 33/1 Carte Diamond,  CelticSpirit,  Cold Quest,  Ladies Best, 50/1 Acropolis,  Big Robert,  Dunaskin, Greek Envoy,  Wicked Daze.

I have some detailed trends in the November Handicap. I will go through this field quickly and finish off with some horses that are strong statistically and that make any shortlist. I dont want the Topweight PRESVIS in this race. I think his weight is a problem. He fails a serious number of trends in the race not least as a lighter
raced older horse and He is up in trip as well and he simply is not the type  that has won this race and win lose or draw on my angles based on the last 20 renewals of this race PRESVIS had a very poor profile in my view. NIGHT CRESCENDO only fails one of my trends in that no exposed horse or indeed any 4 year old won last
time out and whilst there will be many horses with weaker profiles I didnt want to give him  the benefit of the doubt. YOUNG MICK is in exactly the same boat failing some similar angles. MENWAAL doesnt have the correct preperation for me and has plenty against him and I felt MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR also had a bad profile  and failed several important angles. There are many of these that just dont have good profiles. You will see from the list of trends that its very important to come into this race in form and running well. So many of these dont do that and I would include the following -

BIG ROBERT - CARTE DIAMOND - TROPICAL STRAIT
GREEK ENVOY- GROUP CAPTAIN - HITS ONLY VIC
AJAAN - LADIES BEST - MULL OF DUBAI -  CELTIC SPIRIT
WICKED DAZE

COLD QUEST has a horrible profile. Both ACROPOLIS and
DUNASKIN are  too old. TASTAHIL is just the wrong kind
of 4 year old in this just like the favourite is. Its very hard to judge THE BETCHWORTH KID as he has an unusual profile but I cant find a horse that won this or a similar race at this time of year and my impression is that if a 3 year old was going to come back from a 14f race it would be both lighter raced than he is and would have run better in that race. That said I do think THE BETCHWORTH KID is one of the more interesting runners and I think he is one of the best 3 or 4 runners in the race I feel the same about FIRST AVENUE as well.  FIRST AVENUE  came out quite similar to the 2007 and 1992 winners and the only
angle he fails is a very forgiveable one. Whether he has the resolutionor not I dont know and I dont like cheekpieces on my bet in a race such as this.

STRONGEST PROFILE

ELECTROLYSER

I think this horse has the best profile. He has just 4 runs but he is a very similar type to 2004 winner  CARTE DIAMOND  who also had 4 runs and interestingly came from the same Leicester 3 year old handicap as ELECTROLYSER does. Trip and Ground are fine and I think he has a great chance off a light weight.

Current Best price at time of blog post 4/1 at CentreBet and Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

Just a small Extract from our Saturday message from today.

Nb There is a proper account bet for full members of mathematician-betting.co.uk in the 3.35 at Haydock

ASCOT 4:50 - MILES & MORRISON OCTOBER STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

7/2 Majestic Roi, 8/1 Crystany, Ethaara, Francesca D´Gorgio, Illusion, Salsa Steps, Spinning Lucy, 10/1 Meydan Princess, 12/1 Kylayne, Medicea Sidera,
25/1 Ghostmilk, Steam Cuisine, 33/1 Candle Sahara, Monaazalah, Vital Statistics, 66/1 Indian Diva.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f
* There has only been 7 renewals of this race
* There has been 20 other Listed races for fillies at this time of year
* The 7 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9 previous races
* It does look a race for lightly raced 3 year olds
* Horses with 10 + runs had a 0-47 record
* Horses aged 4 or more had a 0-27 record
* If you look at the 20 Listed races at this time of year
* Only 2 had as much as 13 or more career starts
* Horses aged 3 or 4 with 13 + runs were 0-39
* This leads me to take out all the exposed horses
* MAJESTIC ROI may be vulnerable aged 4 with 15 runs
* She is the best horse on ratings but she isn’t for me
* She is not typical of any previous winner of this race
* GHOSTMILK -KYLAYNE- MEDICEA SIDERA look exposed
* So to does STEAM CUISINE and VITAL STATISTICS
* I would take out the 4 year olds as they havent won this yet
* All winners of this race had at least 4 runs this season
* In 20 other races horses that had 1-2 runs that year struggled
* No horse managed it with 5 or more career runs (0-30)
* Francesca D´Gorgio fails that
* Horses that came from 7f races with 9 + runs were 0-41
* Spinning Lucy - Candle Sahara both fail that
* I think there are 4 runners with strong profiles
* ETHAARA - ILLUSION - MEYDAN PRINCESS - CRYSTANY
* I like ETHAARA - ILLUSION best of these
* ILLUSION has a very similar profile to 2006 winner Makderah
* She comes from the same race and was badly hampered in that race
* Her trainer has won this race before and at an estimated 14/1 she’s my choice

**blog comment: currently trading a  bit shorter than the Racing Post estimated 14/1.

13.5/1 Betfair being the best current price ***

Posted under horse racing tips